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SP500 Consolidation upside after the breakout S&P 500 has been showing strong upside momentum after breaking out of a prolonged consolidation range. Tecnically Recent market reports point to several factors behind the improved sentiment falling oil prices have reduced some of the immediate inflation and supply-risk pressure on equities, with easing U.S.โ€“Iran tensions contributing to the move. Technology and AI-related stocks have been leading the recovery, with the Nasdaq reaching record levels and strong gains in major technology names supporting broader equity sentiment the SP 500 recently recovered after holding important technical support, including its 100-day moving average, and moved back above the 50-day average. From a technical perspective, the key area to watch is around 7,750โ€“7,730 as long as price holds above this support region and continues forming higher lows, another attempt toward 7,800 remains technically possible. A sustained breakout above the recent highs could open the way toward the 7,820โ€“7,850 area. Hope you found this analysis helpful. ๐Ÿ‘ Like, Comment & Follow for more updates.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by MR_GOLD_12
26
Why can stocks rise while the dollar stays strong?In this 18-minute Errante Analysis & Education session, Ali Mortazavi, our head of education, explains one of the most useful lessons in cross-asset trading: lower inflation pressure does not automatically mean easier monetary policy. Using current charts for oil, U.S. Treasury yields, DXY, gold and the S&P 500, we follow the transmission from cheaper oil to inflation expectations, Fed pricing, real yields and asset prices. The key lesson is simple: traders should not analyse markets in isolation. The same development can support equities while leaving the dollar firm if the interest-rate channel remains restrictive. Learn how to distinguish: supply-dri ven versus recession-driven oil declines inflation relief versus monetary-policy relief nominal yields versus real yields risk sentiment versus front-end rate differentials temporary price moves versus genuine macro regime change s Read the cause first, then follow how it travels through the market. Educational content only. Not investment advice.
ERRANTE:US500Education
by Errante
9
S&P 500 August Fractal / Equality Objective Toward 8040S&P 500 August Fractal / Equality Objective Toward 8040 The S&P 500 continues to show a notable similarity/fractal pattern with the prior August advance, visible on the H4 structure. The current price action appears to be following a comparable rhythm: consolidation, breakout, retest, and continuation. The key technical feature is the projected equality target near 8040, which also coincides with the 200% Fibonacci extension from the prior corrective sequence. That confluence makes 8040 a major upside objective if the current advance continues to develop in line with the August fractal. Current Structure On the H4 chart, price has broken higher out of the prior consolidation/value region and is now extending impulsively. The advance mirrors the earlier August setup, where price built a base, compressed below resistance, then expanded higher once the range resolved. The current breakout has already cleared the previous upper range, shifting the short-term structure from consolidation to trend continuation. Key Technical Points Fractal comparison: Current price action resembles the August advance. Primary upside objective: 8040 Confluence: Equality objective + 200% Fib extension from prior corrective sequence Market condition: Bullish continuation while price holds above the breakout/base region Invalidation risk: Failure back into the prior range would weaken the fractal setup Trading Implication As long as price holds above the breakout zone and continues to respect higher lows, the path of least resistance remains higher. The 8040 region becomes the key upside magnet and profit-taking zone. A pullback into the breakout area could provide a better risk/reward entry, provided bullish reversal structure appears there. Conversely, a failure back below the breakout base would suggest the fractal is breaking down and that the move may require deeper correction before continuation.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Tickmill
8
S&P500 3-year Channel Up eyes a $7050 correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since 2023 and following last week's rebound on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) following the Fed Rate Hike, it entered again the pattern's danger (Sell) zone, within the 0.236 - 0 Fibonacci range. With its 1D RSI on a huger Lower Highs Bearish Divergence against the prices Higher Highs, every time this combination emerged, the market made a correction to at least its 1W MA70 (red trend-line). In fact since October 27 2023, we've had three such 1W MA70 contacts. As long as the index stays within the danger zone, a break below its 1D MA100 would confirm such a technical correction. In that event, our medium-term Target would be $7050, representing not only a 1W MA70 test but also a -10.10% total decline, similar to all previous 4 Bearish Legs. --- ** Please LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, FOLLOW โœ…, SHARE ๐Ÿ™Œ and COMMENT โœ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by TradingShot
4
Bullish bounce in play?S&P500 (US500) has bounced off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 7,675.49 1st Support: 7,612.88 1st Resistance: 7,778.40 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by IC
3
$SPX to under $5000?I think the market has put in a top here. While everyone is extremely bullish up here, there's already signs that we're rolling over. I know everyone believes Bessent's moves are going to continue to be bullish for the market, but that's not what I see. There are 2 major issues that Bessent is trying to control for: 1. USDJPY - the yen 2. TLT - the bond market The problem is, I think he's trapped here. When he's intervened on the Yen, bonds have dropped. When he's intervened on bonds, the dollar drops. Both USDJPY and TLT are sitting at critical levels, and if there's a policy mistake or unforeseen event over the next week that causes the dollar or bonds to drop (or both), I think we're going to see an extreme move in the market that takes us all the way back to the support level on the chart. Lots of catalysts this week: - PCE, NVDA earnings - Jackson Hole - Retaliation for d-day? Breaking $7300 will be the warning sign. If this were to happen, I think it will happen very quickly (yes, a crash). I'm playing this idea via puts -- if I lose the premium so be it. Let's see if it plays out over the coming weeks.
SPCFD:SPXShort
by benjihyam
21
US500: One More Sweep Before New Highs?US500 remains bullish on the higher timeframe, but price is currently retracing into a discount area. I'm watching for one more move lower - ideally a sweep of the previous daily low - before looking for confirmation of the next leg higher. If that reaction develops, the roadmap is clear: Discount โ†’ liquidity sweep โ†’ confirmation โ†’ ATH โ†’ standard deviation extension. The interesting part isn't chasing the highs. It's waiting for price to come back to where the next opportunity makes sense.
BLACKBULL:US500Long
by Yankee_algo
2
US500 | Bullish Setup After Liquidity Sweep โ€” TP 7800๐Ÿš€ US500 / SPX500 | Standard & Poor's 500 Index CFD | Bullish Momentum Setup ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ”ฅ LIVE MARKET UPDATE - SEPTEMBER 21, 2026 ๐Ÿ”ฅ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ’ฐ Current Market Context: The S&P 500 continues to demonstrate resilience amid mixed macroeconomic signals. Recent economic data shows inflation metrics stabilizing while labor markets remain robust. Federal Reserve commentary suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, keeping equity markets in a delicate balance between growth optimism and valuation concerns. Tech sector earnings have provided underlying support, while traditional value sectors show rotation patterns. Geopolitical tensions remain contained but warrant monitoring for potential volatility spikes. โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐ŸŽฏ MY ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN ๐ŸŽฏ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ“Š Technical Structure: My analysis reveals a compelling bullish structure forming on the US500/SPX500. We're witnessing classic accumulation phase behavior where smart money is quietly building positions while retail sellers get trapped below key support zones. The liquidity grab we observed recently has shaken out weak hands, creating an ideal setup for upward momentum. ๐Ÿง  My Market Bias: BULLISH with measured optimism. The confluence of technical factors aligns favorably for upside continuation, though we must respect overhead resistance zones and monitor for any shift in market sentiment. โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ AREAS I AM WATCHING ๐Ÿ‘๏ธ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ“ Key Levels: โ€ข Entry Zone: Accumulation area where sellers got trapped (liquidity grab confirmed) โ€ข Resistance Cluster: 7750-7800 zone acting as "police force" resistance โ€ข Support Foundation: 7550 level holding firm as structural base โšก Possible Scenario: Price action suggests a two-phase advance. First leg targets the 7750 psychological barrier where initial profit-taking may occur. A successful break and hold above this level opens the pathway to our final target at 7800, where overbought conditions, trap formations, and reversal signals converge. This is where disciplined traders should consider escaping with profits locked in. โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐ŸŽ“ EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWN ๐Ÿ“š โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ” Why This Setup Works: Liquidity Grab Pattern: Sellers who entered below current levels are now trapped, creating fuel for upward movement as they cover positions Accumulation Phase: Institutional players have been quietly accumulating during consolidation, evident from volume profiles Resistance Psychology: The 7750-7800 zone represents both technical resistance and psychological barriers where majority of traders place take-profit orders Risk-Reward Dynamics: Current structure offers favorable asymmetry with clearly defined invalidation point ๐Ÿ’ก Trading Wisdom: "The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett Remember: Markets don't care about your feelings, only your discipline. Trade what you see, not what you hope. โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ“Œ TRADE PARAMETERS ๐Ÿ“Œ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” โœ… Entry Strategy: Enter on confirmation of bullish momentum from accumulation zone. Look for price acceptance above recent swing lows with increasing volume. ๐ŸŽฏ Target 1: 7750 โ€ข Psychological resistance level โ€ข Initial profit-taking zone โ€ข Partial position reduction recommended ๐ŸŽฏ Target 2 (FINAL): 7800 โ€ข Major resistance cluster โ€ข Overbought territory convergence โ€ข Trap + reversal signal zone โ€ข FULL EXIT RECOMMENDED HERE ๐Ÿ›‘ Stop Loss: 7550 โ€ข Structural support breakdown level โ€ข Invalidation point for bullish thesis โ€ข Protect capital first, profits second โš ๏ธ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), I am NOT recommending you set ONLY my TP or SL levels. This is YOUR choice. You can make money, then take money at YOUR own risk. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. This is educational content, not financial advice. โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ”— RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH ๐Ÿ”— โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ’ต USD Index (DXY): $96.50-$97.20 range โ€ข Inverse correlation with SPX500 โ€ข Dollar weakness supports equity rallies โ€ข Watch for breakouts above $97.50 as bearish signal for stocks ๐Ÿฆ NASDAQ 100 (NAS100): $18,200-$18,500 โ€ข High correlation with SPX500 (~0.85+) โ€ข Tech-heavy composition drives SPX momentum โ€ข Leading indicator for broader market sentiment ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EURO STOXX 50 (EUR50): โ‚ฌ4,850-โ‚ฌ4,920 โ€ข Global risk sentiment proxy โ€ข European market strength supports US equities โ€ข Divergence warning if EUR50 weakens while SPX rises ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง FTSE 100 (UK100): ยฃ8,100-ยฃ8,250 โ€ข Value-sector heavy index โ€ข Rotation indicator between growth/value โ€ข Correlation strengthens during risk-on environments ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Crude Oil WTI (USOIL): $78-$82 โ€ข Inflation expectations gauge โ€ข Rising oil costs can pressure margins โ€ข Monitor for supply disruption news ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold (XAUUSD): $2,650-$2,720 โ€ข Safe-haven alternative to equities โ€ข Rising gold with falling SPX = risk-off signal โ€ข Real yield correlation critical โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ“ฐ FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS ๐Ÿ“ฐ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ”ด Current Market Drivers: โ€ข Federal Reserve Policy: Interest rate decisions remain data-dependent with focus on employment and inflation metrics โ€ข Corporate Earnings: Q3 earnings season approaching; guidance will be crucial for forward momentum โ€ข Employment Data: Labor market showing signs of normalization without collapse โ€ข Inflation Metrics: Core PCE trending toward target but services inflation sticky โ€ข Consumer Spending: Resilient but showing early signs of fatigue in discretionary categories โ€ข Geopolitical Landscape: Contained tensions but energy supply chains remain vulnerable โ€ข Fiscal Policy: Government spending debates ongoing; debt ceiling discussions periodic โ€ข Global Growth: Emerging markets showing mixed signals; China stimulus measures limited impact so far ๐Ÿ“… Upcoming Catalysts to Monitor: โ€ข Federal Reserve meeting minutes and speaker commentary โ€ข Monthly jobs report (NFP) and unemployment claims โ€ข CPI/PCE inflation releases โ€ข Major tech company earnings reports โ€ข Retail sales data indicating consumer health โ€ข Manufacturing PMI readings โ€ข Consumer confidence surveys โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿฆน THIEF TRADER STYLE MOTIVATION ๐Ÿฆน โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ’ช "Steal opportunities, not excuses. The market gives; thieves take with precision." ๐ŸŽฏ "Every stop loss hit is tuition paid to the University of Market Reality. Graduate with wisdom, not bitterness." ๐Ÿ”ฅ "While others chase pumps, we hunt setups. While others FOMO, we execute. Be the thief who steals time, patience, and discipline." โšก "Risk management isn't boringโ€”it's the difference between being a gambler and being a professional thief of market inefficiencies." ๐Ÿ† "Your edge isn't predicting the future. It's managing the present better than everyone else." โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” โš–๏ธ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDERS โš–๏ธ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” โœ“ Never risk more than 1-2% per trade โœ“ Always use stop lossesโ€”no exceptions โœ“ Take partial profits at Target 1 โœ“ Move stop to breakeven after Target 1 hit โœ“ Don't add to losing positions โœ“ Journal every trade for continuous improvement โœ“ Accept that losses are part of the game โœ“ Focus on process, not outcomes โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” ๐Ÿ“ˆ FINAL THOUGHTS ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ” This setup represents a high-probability opportunity based on current market structure, but probability doesn't equal certainty. The market humbles everyone eventually. Stay disciplined, stay humble, and let the probabilities work in your favor over time. Whether this trade works or doesn't, what matters is your consistency in following your plan. The Thief OG mentality isn't about being rightโ€”it's about being profitable over hundreds of trades, not just one. Trade safe. Trade smart. Steal wisely. ๐Ÿฆนโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ’ฐ
TRADENATION:US500Long
by The-Thief
2
S&P 500 Knocks on 7,800's Door. Will This Week Bring a Breakout?The Fed hiked. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in years. And yet, the S&P 500 kept moving higher. The index closed Friday at 7,743, gaining 1.2% for the week. That puts it less than 1% below the key 7,800 resistance. Just a week ago, the focus was on whether 7,600 support would hold. Now the question has completely changed. Stocks and bonds are telling different stories Treasury yields continued to rise last week, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 2004. Normally, rising yields create pressure for equities, particularly high-growth technology stocks. But the stock market is telling a different story. The Nasdaq ended the week at 27,068, with technology stocks continuing to lead. Meta gained nearly 13%, while chipmakers also rallied on expectations of strong AI-related demand. So the key question is: Can strong AI and technology growth continue to offset the pressure from higher interest rates? That tension remains one of the biggest themes for the market. The technical picture is getting interesting The key levels remain unchanged: ๐Ÿ”น 7,800 โ†’ Major resistance The index came close to this level last week but has still not managed a clean breakout. ๐Ÿ”น 7,600 โ†’ Immediate support After holding this level convincingly last week, it has now become the key downside level to watch. ๐Ÿ”น 7,300 โ†’ Major support A move toward this zone would suggest a much deeper correction and a meaningful change in the current market structure. The focus has therefore shifted. Last week, the question was whether 7,600 would hold. This week, the question is whether 7,800 can finally be broken. Why this week could be important Several major economic reports are scheduled this week. Wednesday: PCE inflation data Thursday: ISM Manufacturing data Friday: September jobs report The jobs report could be particularly important. Economists expect job growth to slow to around 100,000, from 162,000 previously, while unemployment is expected to move slightly higher. A softer labour market could reduce pressure on the Fed, while stronger-than-expected data combined with sticky inflation could keep yields elevated. What could still move the market? Oil prices have eased recently on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, but the situation remains uncertain. The latest Trump-Xi meeting also produced limited progress on trade, meaning geopolitical and trade-related risks remain relevant for markets. What should traders watch? The setup is becoming fairly simple. A clean breakout above 7,800 would signal that buyers are finally overcoming the key resistance zone and could open the door for further upside. On the other hand, a rejection from 7,800 followed by a break below 7,600 would bring the lower end of the range back into focus, with 7,300 as the next major support. For now, the broader trend remains positive, but the index is approaching a critical decision zone. 7,800 is the ceiling. 7,600 is the floor. The next major move could come from whichever side breaks first.
SPCFD:SPX
by NaranjCapital
1
S&P500: This 1 year overbought state will end badly.S&P500 is highly overbought on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 74.374, MACD = 601.200, ADX = 55.289) with the 1M RSI basically being overbought since April 2026 and with the interuption of the U.S. - Iran war in March, is overbought since June 2025. This prolonged overbought state (if we also extract March - April 2025 and the U.S. - China Trade War) is the longest since 2013 - 2015 and is highly unstable. Since the 2009 bottom and the start of the Channel Up, such extended overbought 1M RSI sequence ended very badly for the market, with the index always visiting its 1W MA200. With the exception of the -35.76% COVIC crash, those correction have been around the same strength, with the shortest being -15.69% in 2015. Also a noticeable feat is that August tends to be a month that the index tops or is not far from a market top that in 4 occasions ended with a 1W MA200 test and 1 occasion (2025) with a 1W MA100 test (but also very close to the 1W MA200). Consequently, there are very high probabilities that the market has topped on a macro scale and a minimum -15.69% decline is expected (TP = 6,700). If it happens by the end of the year, it would put the S&P500 just under its 1W MA100. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXShort
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 hit its 1D MA100 after 5 months. Massive buy or sell-off?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit yesterday its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in more than 5 months (since April 13 2026) and is initially rebounding. This of course comes just hours after the Fed Rate Hike yesterday, which the market's initially sold but recovered entirely just now! Technically this is almost a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up. Now the momentum is facing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance. If it breaks, expect a continuation of the bullish pattern. If it holds however, the selling pressure could accumulate and there are higher probabilities to see a test of the lower Support. The next one is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but the last major testing of the 1D MA100 as Support during February 2026, resulted in the strong correction of March (U.S. - Iran war) that bottomed on the 1W MA70 (red trend-line) after exactly a -10% total decline. Notice also how similar the RSI sequences among the two fractals are, both Channel Downs, currently sitting on the 37.50 Symmetrical Support. As a result, as long as the market is under Lower Highs and breaks below the 1D MA100, account for a potential -10% sell-off towards the 1W MA70, targeting 7050. Could be an ideal long-term buy opportunity after the U.S. Mid-term elections. --- ** Please LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, FOLLOW โœ…, SHARE ๐Ÿ™Œ and COMMENT โœ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by TradingShot
12
Kissed the gap fill, held the parallel, can we still confirm? In this video I go over the SPX my levels of resistance and support and we go over the evidence in the charts that suggest we could still get one more shot to confirm. If we fail to confirm for the second time that would be bearish and would likely signal a move lower soon. But if we do confirm then we're likely to get a new all time high on the spx. We study the 10 min chart and the price action was quite weak! Yes we had a nice pop but that was all based on news and also we didn't see the high conviction buying again. If it weren't for that news we wouldn't of held the parallel! That's telling us something to keep in our minds. But the fact is we held the parallel for now we just keep following our rules like I stated in the videos , so long as we don't close back inside the parallel it still has a chance to confirm and its not a failed brake out until proven other wise by closing back inside the parallel. Remember we also have multiple factors that say we can get our market correction later. The 10 year bond had a confirmed break out! which tells us it wants to go higher BUT for now in the short term its over bought and odds favor a pull back to make a retrace which would = a bounce on the markets. If we do get the bounce its the last chance the SPX will have to confirm. Lets watch this market closely. Another negative factor that I didn't go over was the RSI wedge pattern we have .Go watch our previous videos for more details on that matter and the stochastic RSI also wants to cross down soon. These are just bread crumbs warning yellow caution signals to keep in the back of our minds for now.
SPCFD:SPX
by JuvenalGomez
1
Post FED market update! The final stand.In this video I'm going over with subscribers my levels of support and resistance on both the SPX and the QQQ. Were trying to make sense of the price action today and I must say it was very interesting! We finally did the full retrace of the wedge pattern that we were watching out for! This is the final chance for the markets to make a turnaround IF we cant hold the retrace of the former wedge pattern that we broke out from then were going much lower. But if we do hold it there is a chance to make one final leg higher before we start our market correction we have been anticipating based on our 2 month chart analysis that has been warning us. There is always the chance that its already staring now but we will know for sure once we fail to hold the wedge pattern retrace. I'm playing the pattern until its broken!
SPCFD:SPXLong
by JuvenalGomez
10
S&P 500 โ€” Technical Analysis | 1DThe chart is showing a potential short-term bearish reversal inside a broader rising channel/wedge structure. ๐Ÿ”ป Bearish Setup Price is currently trading around 7,535, after failing to hold the 7,560โ€“7,600 resistance area. The key signal is the break below the short-term rising trendline that has supported the latest leg higher. This suggests that short-term bullish momentum is weakening and a corrective move may be developing. Potential Short Entry: 7,560 Confirmation: Sustained trading below the short-term uptrend / rejection from 7,560โ€“7,600. ๐ŸŽฏ Downside Targets T1: 7,150 โ€” first major support / lower boundary of the rising structure T2: 6,350 โ€” deeper support and potential completion of a larger correction A move toward 7,150 would represent a normal correction within the broader rising structure. A decisive breakdown below 7,150 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper move toward 6,350. โš ๏ธ Invalidation The bearish setup weakens if price reclaims 7,600 and holds above it, particularly if the index breaks back above the upper resistance structure. ๐Ÿ“Š Overall Bias Short-term: BEARISH / CORRECTIVE Medium-term: Still bullish unless the major rising-channel support is broken. The important distinction here is that this chart does not yet prove a full trend reversal. At this stage, it is more accurately a short-term bearish correction setup within a larger bullish structure. Key levels: 7,600 resistance โ†’ 7,150 T1 โ†’ 6,350 T2. Educational technical analysis only; confirmation from price action/volume is preferable before treating the setup as active.
CAPITALCOM:SPX500Short
by IbrahimTarek
1
SPX - Rate Hike To Bait Bears Before A Bounce?SPX In HTF US indices look dicey and Dow Jones may be signalling a significant slump. But in LTF, S&P has been hanging around, sweeping these supports for a while but has not fallen into the space below. The interest rate decision will be released at 2 PM ET today. From a psychological perspective, this is an area where retail will be bearish because they can see a rate hike looming. Fear and Greed is also down at 29 - Fear. But the market tends to move against retail, at least in the short term. And so, I think it's more likely that we get a bounce in this area. Of course, there may be plenty of whipsaws through the area. Perhaps it may begin by printing a fast slump to bait bearish hike traders into entering shorts or exiting longs and sweep the lows. And then perhaps we get some sort of significant bounce that proves to be a dead cat into the next wave down. This is all just an educated guess - a throw at the dartboard. But I am doubting that we get a rate hike and then see the markets dump with impulse - as many traders will be expecting... Not advice
SPCFD:SPXLong
by ThinkFastTrades
1