SUI Smashing above $2 or going below $0.17Dear community,
We are approaching a critical phase in the crypto market. Based on current volume structure, market aggression, and the broader macroeconomic outlook, I currently see two possible scenarios, with Scenario 2 appearing more probable at this stage.
Option 1:
The market breaks higher, pushes above $2, and potentially reaches new all-time highs before the end of the year.
Option 2:
We revisit significantly lower levels, potentially below $0.17.
Why do I believe these coming months are so important for the crypto industry?
Because major assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL may still need to print new cycle lows. From a technical and institutional positioning perspective, especially when combining liquidity behavior with AB=CD Fibonacci structures, there is still room for a deeper reset that most market participants currently do not expect. In my view, Bitcoin moving below $51k cannot be ruled out.
There is also a larger macro factor to consider. Historically, crypto winters require roughly 12 to 18 months for a full recovery cycle. However, this cycle may behave differently. With increasing recession risks projected into 2027, policymakers still have room to address unresolved issues such as regulatory clarity, geopolitical tensions, and capital rotation dynamics between equities and digital assets.
As of today, I see the probabilities close to 50/50 in the short term. A final expansion phase above $2 this year is still possible, but it could also represent the last major rally before a broader market correction. Long term, I still consider Option 2 the higher probability outcome.
An important observation:
Very few projects have shown relative strength comparable to Hyperliquid, particularly among projects with real products and actual utility. However, fundamentals alone do not guarantee price performance. We have seen this before with Polygon (MATIC), where strong ecosystem growth and institutional activity did not prevent severe downside in the token itself.
The reality is that crypto asset pricing is often disconnected from underlying value.
If a broader recession and market-wide correction eventually arrive, the crypto sector will likely go through a major cleanup phase. In the long run, that may ultimately create a healthier and more sustainable market structure, one that behaves closer to traditional equity markets rather than pure speculation.
Kudos to Y Quants AG for the inspiration on how to analyse the broad market & macro.
Short
