USD/MXN continues to highlight a relevant sideways rangeThese have started to become difficult sessions for the Mexican peso. The currency has not managed to find consistent demand, and USD/MXN average movements are barely showing a variation close to 0.4% over the last 3 trading sessions.
This behavior reflects lower market activity, especially considering that previous weeks saw variations of up to 0.8% in a single session. For now, the Mexican peso has not managed to consolidate a stable sense of strength, while the stability of the U.S. dollar continues to pressure the market.
In addition, the U.S. inflation data released during the week has not been enough to eliminate the possibility of a potential interest rate hike in September by the Fed. This could be maintaining some strength around the U.S. dollar.
If this effect continues, a phase of indecision could remain relevant in short-term USD/MXN movements.
Sideways range remains relevant
For several months, USD/MXN average movements have maintained a medium-term sideways structure, with a ceiling near the 18 pesos per dollar area and a floor around 17 pesos per dollar.
For now, recent price movements have not been enough to break this neutrality. For this reason, the sideways range remains the most important technical structure to watch and could continue to affect the lack of direction in USD/MXN over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI indicator line continues to move around the neutral 50 area. This suggests that the average of buying and selling impulses remains balanced.
As long as this behavior continues, a neutral bias could remain relevant in short-term USD/MXN movements.
MACD: A similar dynamic can be seen in the MACD, as the histogram remains close to the neutral 0 level. This suggests balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages.
This reading also highlights relevant neutrality that could remain important over the next few sessions.
Key levels to watch:
18 pesos per dollar – Relevant resistance: This high zone remains the most important upper barrier at the moment. Price movements toward this level could start to leave the neutral bias behind and open room for more relevant buying pressure over the coming trading weeks.
17.58 pesos per dollar – Near-term barrier: This key retracement area corresponds to the most relevant neutrality level between the long-term moving averages on the chart. If price fails to move consistently away from this level, the neutral phase could remain in place and even open room for an extension of the dominant sideways range.
17 pesos per dollar – Key support: This area corresponds to the 2026 lows and remains the main bearish barrier to watch. Price movements below this level could bring back the selling bias seen in previous weeks and open room for a possible reactivation of the long-term bearish trend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
