How JPY Crosses Held Up After Intervention?Thursday saw a dramatic move as Japan stepped in to defend the yen, intervening after the USDJPY surged to a session high of 160.725. This marked Japan’s first official currency intervention in nearly two years. This move sent the USDJPY down by more than 2.3%. Let’s see how committed the Japanese government is to defending this level.
Before the intervention, investors appeared to have underestimated the risk of such action, holding one of the largest short yen positions in nearly two years, selling the yen against both the euro and the British pound too. Now, we’re seeing a stronger rebound in these crosses compared to the USD/JPY.
It’s also interesting to watch the Japanese cross with gold (BlackBull Markets offers trading on this instrument of course). The dip in gold relative to the yen has been significant, but technical support levels are holding up much stronger than in the currency markets.
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Will Gold Go Past ATH Against JPY ? - Analysis As we have currently seen, Japan is going through a tough time as inflation is rising, but wages are staying stable. The issue with this is that the cost of living is going up, and inflation is forcing the BOJ to increase their rates. However, this will make Japan's new debt more expensive to finance, which puts a lot of pressure on the current political party. As such, by combatting inflation, the BOJ is making new debt more expensive for the Japanese government, which increases their overall debt. This might lead to participants in the Japanese markets to be more concerned whether Japan will be able to pay back those loans and interest or whether it will default. Japan's bond yields have soared to an ATH, and today's geopolitical situation, where Trump is not respecting international law and multiple wars have been triggered, as well as the Chinese central bank buying up a lot of gold, has pushed gold prices higher. So will XAU/JPY keep going up or not? Share your thoughts below.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
Gold-denominated yen This chart displays the value of the Japanese Yen denominated in Gold (1/XAUJPY). Instead of looking at the price of Gold in Yen, this perspective visualizes the "Purchasing Power of the Yen"—how much gold (true wealth) one Yen can actually command.
Standard Forex pairs like USDJPY only show the relative strength between two fiat currencies. In an era of aggressive monetary expansion, measuring the Yen against Gold—an asset with no counterparty risk and limited supply—reveals the "true debasement" of the currency.
Downtrend: Currency debasement. It indicates that the Yen is losing its value relative to hard assets.
Current Analysis: The long-term downtrend since the early 2000s has accelerated recently. This highlights the risk that the Yen is rapidly losing its function as a reliable store of value.
XAU JPY: Currently under selling pressure, various T-Frames
XAU JPY currently is under selling pressure due to a Double-top on the daily/weekly time-frames. But there is also a current Head 'n' Shoulders Sell pattern on intraday time-frames, 2HR mostly. Also, on the 2HR EMA's squeezing tightly together, serving to send price lower if anything, plus a massive rising wedge on 2HR which XAU JPY looks to be about to fall out of.
Momentum Oscillators in the right-side chart point to downwards price-action.
There is also XAU USD which continues to wind back in price after testing the 20/21EMA multiple times on the Daily, but it continues to slip downwards.
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GOLD/JPY: Bearish Bump and Run Reversal TopXAUJPY after sharply rising from the long term Lead-In trend line and Horizontal Support Level, is now currently testing the supply line of a local Right-Angled and Ascending Broadening Formation it has developed at the highs and seems to have completed an RSI BAMM and is now looking to do an impulsive move down. If the impulsive move down is great enough, we will see XAUJPY break down below the Lead-In Trend Line and confirm it as a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top, which could take us to the measured move that happens to just about align with the 61.8% Retrace overall.
The JPY overall has been setting up and getting quite Bullish against other currencies recently too, such as the AUD, GBP, CAD, and EUR. I suspect this trend of the Yen gaining value against assets will continue in Gold as the USD continues to rise and the JPY maintains its USD value relative to other currencies and assets.
Gold set to advance against the Japanese YenThe massive ascending triangle completed in Mar 2023 has met its 1X target at 275,000 Yen per Oz. It is quite common for such a large pattern to eventually fulfill a 2X target. The daily chart is coiling into a pennant that should be resolved by an upside breakout. Tactically my trade is to buy Gold futures and sell Yen futures with an approximately equal USD value.
Get ready to be long Gold and short JPYThe chart of Gold expressed in Japanese Yen has remained in a very tight weekly closing price range of 7% for almost a year. The boundaries are clear as an ascending triangle. This is a trade I will lean into hard by buying Gold and either selling Yen futures or buying USDJPY spot in approximately equal USD values. JCB will continue to inject money into the system. The Yen is likely to becoming the garbage can currency of the world. By buying Gold and selling Yen I become USD neutral in the trade.
Gold vrs Yen - Hits the 161 As I've said multiple times in different forecasts, the leading tell of an uptrend ending is when the market can not break the 161s of the last pullback. This has now happened in gold/yen.
Mostly marking this out of interest. I don't think I have liquidity for this on my primary brokers. I'll maybe scout about for some. But this is related to my long Yen forecast and also my short gold one.
Yen looks set to turn again gold if it can hold the 161. +1 for the Yen long in the Forex markets in my opinion.






















