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New Name, New Year, New War New Name, New Year, New War: Venezuelan invasion coming soon? The Trump administration has made its intentions toward Nicolás Maduro clear. Removing the Venezuelan president is a stated goal, but the path the administration is willing to take remains uncertain. A former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela has described the deployment of American ground troops as a “last option”, but anything is possible with Trump and his newly named Department of War. Washington has already seized a tanker carryi

by BlackBull Markets

Bitcoin: A case of confidence and patience | FX Research As we continue to emphasize, any bouts of weakness in the crypto market still look like pullbacks within a broader and constructive medium and longer term uptrend. In our view, any tone of negative sentiment appears misplaced when viewed against price action that continues to reward investors who treat these pullbacks as opportunities rather than threats. We have highlighted the 50-week simple moving average as the first meaningful support for Bitcoin. Since breaking above this level in 2023, t

by BlackBull Markets

Inflation Countdown: BTC and ETH at Key Levels Ahead of CPI Market focus is quickly turning to the US CPI report coming up this week. A higher-than-expected figure might weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, keeping the former in rangebound mode and the latter fighting for a handle above $4,000. Ethereum is consolidating just above the $4,150 level after a sharp rally. The recent higher highs and higher lows keep the short-term bias bullish, but a sustained move below $4,100 could indicate shifting momentum. Bitcoin is testing resistance a

by BlackBull Markets

USD/INR pullback possible, USD/MXN eyes 18.95 USD/INR surged from 86.30 to nearly 87.85 in just over a week, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing plans to impose a 25% tariff on select Indian exports. The latest 4H candles show signs of exhaustion, with price stalling near the highs and forming small-bodied candles with upper wicks—suggesting weakening bullish momentum. A break below 87.45 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 87.20. However, if price reclaims 87.65, bulls may attempt another push toward 87.85 or new highs. U

by BlackBull Markets

A diffusion in tension | FX Research Trading conditions will be thinner today on account of the long weekend holiday in the US. But as we come into the new week, sentiment is rather upbeat. Most of this has been driven by a diffusion in tension around US trade policy and optimism about a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s softer US retail sales data is factoring into price action as well, with investors using the economic data as fuel for the case that the Fed should be leaning more accommodative rather than

by BlackBull Markets

Risk for AUD/NZD: What's Priced in? Standard Chartered economists see upside risk for AUD/NZD at current levels, especially if the RBA delivers a hawkish hold at its February meeting. They note that the RBA-RBNZ rate differential, currently at 50bps, could widen further, supporting AUD/NZD above 1.11. A decision to keep rates unchanged could surprise markets, pushing AUD/USD even higher. If the RBA signals fewer or smaller cuts ahead—a "hawkish cut"—AUD/NZD could move beyond 1.122. Meanwhile, RSI suggests buyers are gaining mo

by BlackBull Markets

False Bitcoin rumors revealing real market sentiment False Bitcoin rumors revealing real market sentiment Fake news sent Bitcoin up about 10% on Monday, surging from $27,900 to over $30,000 after Crypto news site Cointelegraph posted on X that the Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF application. In response to the rumor, BlackRock had to clarify that no decision had been made regarding their ETF application. Even though the rumor has now been debunked, Bitcoin is still up more than 5%, at $28,600, with

by BlackBull Markets

Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week? Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week? For Gold (XAU/USD), the 4-hour chart suggests a neutral-to-bearish stance. While the pair is currently above its moving averages, the 50-day moving average is closely trailing its price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping towards a neutral level, indicating a potential pause in buyer activity. If Gold drops below $1,945, there is a risk of prices descending further and retesting their previous lows or the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) a

by BlackBull Markets

32,600 Jobs Added! Aussie Dollar Skyrockets!32,600 Jobs Added! Aussie Dollar Skyrockets! The Australian dollar has surged, driven by an impressive employment report that far exceeded expectations. In the month of June, Australia's net employment rose by a staggering 32,600 compared to the previous month, surpassing estimates by more than double. This development propelled the Aussie currency up by over 0.9%, reaching an intra-day high of $0.6834. The New Zealand dollar also rode the wave, gaining 0.57% to reach $0.6299. Both Antipodean

by BlackBull Markets

Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up In June, the United States inflation fell to 3%, which is the lowest since March 2021. This was slightly below the market's expectations of 3.1% and a significant decline from May's rate of 4%. Additionally, the core inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.8%, marking its lowest level since October 2021. The implication of this deceleration is that it could prompt the Federal Reserve to scale back its plans for interest rate hikes. With inflation showing sign

by BlackBull Markets

USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against

by BlackBull Markets

FOMC Minutes in the Charts: EUR/USD & GBP/USD FOMC Minutes in the Charts: EUR/USD & GBP/USD During their June meeting, minutes released on Wednesday indicated that almost all Federal Reserve officials expect further tightening in the future. Despite the majority's belief in upcoming rate hikes, policymakers chose not to increase rates due to concerns about over-tightening. They acknowledged the delayed impact of previous policies and other factors, which led them to skip the June meeting after implementing ten consecutive rate increases.

by BlackBull Markets

Who's Right? Hawk Economists vs. Dove Traders - RBA meets Today Who's Right? Hawk Economists vs. Dove Traders - RBA meets Today Yesterday, the AUD/USD experienced its third consecutive day of growth. However, the upward trend is expected to face obstacles during Tuesday's trading session due to the impending Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Despite some analysts adopting a more hawkish stance and predicting a rate hike as the most likely outcome of today's meeting, money market traders have reduced their forecast to a one-in-three chance of an increas

by BlackBull Markets

Powell hints at 2 more hikes, sends gold lower Powell hints at 2 more hikes, sends gold lower The US dollar rose on Wednesday after the gathering of central bank leaders worldwide, which included Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During the meeting, Powell left open the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing two more rate hikes this year. Furthermore, Powell stated that he does not anticipate inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target of 2% until the year 2025. However, investors might be hanging onto the words of Powell

by BlackBull Markets

Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially catapulting to approximately 87 rubles per US dollar, the ruble later recovered some of its losses, settling at around 84.40, down 0.90% ag

by BlackBull Markets

Resistance at 1.267: Key Level to Watch After BoE Rate Decision The UK continues to struggle with high inflation, as demonstrated once again this morning when headline inflation exceeded expectations at 8.7%, surpassing the projected 8.4%. Core inflation also outperformed, registering a 7.1% figure compared to the expected 6.8%. This divergence emphasizes the contrast between the UK and its counterparts in the US and Europe. Tomorrow, the Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision, and there are expectations of further tightening from

by BlackBull Markets

EURGBP Expectations: UK Inflation and BoE's Decision this Week EURGBP Expectations: UK Inflation and BoE's Decision this Week On Monday, the pound reached its highest level against the euro in 10 months, at 85.25 pence, as investors await the British inflation data and the upcoming Bank of England decision. However, the currency pair quickly rebounded to the support level of the previous week, at 85.42 pence, but is perhaps now tracking down again. In recent weeks, the sterling has experienced a rallied against the EUR and USD (particularly against the

by BlackBull Markets

Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the paus

by BlackBull Markets

Challenges Ahead for USD/CAD Bulls Last night, the Bank of Canada decided to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75%. This move came after a pause in the tightening campaign during the two previous meetings. As a result, borrowing costs reached a level not seen in 22 years. Because most of the market, approximately 60%, expected interest rates to remain unchanged, the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened against the US dollar (USD) following the news. The USD experienced a decrease of 0.23% against the CA

by BlackBull Markets

NFP report: How Will it Shape the Gold Trend?NFP report: How Will it Shape the Gold Trend? Gold prices experienced a rise on Tuesday and Thursday (sideways on Wednesday), driven by traders' expectations of another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But is the medium-term downtrend really over? One fundamental indicator that can help answer this question is the nonfarm payrolls, due to be released this Friday (US time). Any unexpected outcomes could lead to heightened volatility in rate-sensitive assets such as gold. Market pr

by BlackBull Markets

5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week 5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week: - US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “ne

by BlackBull Markets

USDCAD Reacts to CPI & Debt Ceiling Woes USDCAD Reacts to CPI & Debt Ceiling Woes Two big events affecting the USD/CAD pair include the CPI reading from Canada this week as well as the ongoing debt ceiling crisis in the US. In April, the monthly Canadian headline CPI surged by 0.7%, resulting in an annual rate of 4.4% compared to the previous 4.3%. This increase exceeded the consensus estimates by three-tenths of a percent in both instances. Consequently, the USD/CAD experienced a 0.4% decrease, reaching 1.3404, before rebounding to

by BlackBull Markets

Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD?Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was a

by BlackBull Markets

Preparing for the Worst: Trading Ahead of a US Debt Default "It is impossible to predict with certainty the exact date when Treasury will be unable to pay the government's bills," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter to Congress. Although Yellen noted a tentative date of June 1 as the due date to help spur lawmakers into action. While it is highly unlikely that the US will default on its debt, this doesn’t mean that the traders won’t make plans to deal with a default or get jittery. Two likely markets that will have to deal with the moves fr

by BlackBull Markets