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NZD/USD gives back gains ahead of election day The New Zealand dollar has given back its rebound following the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections. On the hourly chart, NZD/USD climbed towards 0.5658 before retreating to around 0.5606. Attention now turns to New Zealand’s general election on Saturday, November 7, with the final 1News–Verian poll showing no clear majority for either main political bloc. National, which leads the current government, is narrowly ahead of Labour at 30% to 29%. Opportunity remains at 6%, enough for

by BlackBull Markets

Could cheaper oil help gold reach $5,000? #Citi’s reported outlook puts gold at $4,500 within three months and $5,000 over six to twelve months. The forecasts depend on shipping through the Strait of #Hormuz reopening. Oil has already fallen as traders price in the #Democratic pledge to push for an end to the conflict with Iran following their sweep of the US #midterm elections. Brent and WIT have both exhibited significant declines. Citi’s argument is straightforward: much cheaper oil could ease #inflation pressure enough to shift

by BlackBull Markets

A Packed Week for FX and Gold Traders US politics takes centre stage with the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The outcome could change expectations for government spending, taxes and borrowing, keeping the dollar sensitive to results. Friday’s payrolls report then shifts attention back to the economy and the Fed’s next decision. Europe also has a busy calendar. The Riksbank, Bank of England and Norges Bank all have rate decisions due. Markets anticipate increases from the BoE and Riksbank, while Norges Bank is expect

by BlackBull Markets

Could Anthropic’s IPO Revive AI Stocks?November was supposed to be Anthropic’s #IPO month. Instead, the AI trade is currently providing an uncomfortable backdrop. The #Nasdaq100 has entered correction territory. #Intel fell about 29% on Friday, its worst daily performance since at least 1980, while #Alphabet recorded its biggest daily decline on Thursday. China offers another sign of weaker demand for AI stocks. The #CSI300 has fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, while the technology-focused #STAR50 has lost around 40% in less than

by BlackBull Markets

NZ Voting Has Begun. Is NZD/USD Ready to Move?New Zealanders are already voting, but the next government remains uncertain. Advance voting began on October 26, ahead of election day on November 7. For NZD/USD traders, conflicting polls and possible coalition negotiations could keep volatility high. A daily close above 0.5660 could improve the recovery outlook, with 0.5700–0.5710 a potential resistance zone. Holding above that area could provide stronger evidence that selling pressure is easing. RSI is around 41, below the neutral 50 le

by BlackBull Markets

Who can sell Anthropic shares on day one? Anthropic has filed to list on Nasdaq as #ANT. For traders, the most useful details concern its valuation and early selling. Some insiders can sell from day one. Eligible non-founder employees, directors and consultants can sell limited amounts immediately. Further releases are planned for the 27th and 48th trading days. The amounts and full conditions have not yet been disclosed The IPO price is still missing. No price range, offer size or first trading date has been confirmed. Th

by BlackBull Markets

Could Iran strikes follow the US midterms?Questions traders should ask themselves: How soon after the November 3 midterms could strikes happen? Could the election result change Trump’s plans? Could oil fall if strikes are delayed? Could other countries’ oil supplies be affected? The New York Times has reported that the US and Israel are preparing plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections. Although preparations do not mean an operation is certain to go ahead. Iran has warned that its respons

by BlackBull Markets

Why isn’t a weaker dollar helping gold?Gold has edged lower to $4,120 an ounce as oil prices raises inflation concerns ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Brent crude reached a five-month high on renewed shipping disruptions in the Middle East. Higher energy prices could interfere with progress on inflation and give the Fed more reason to keep policy tight. A weaker dollar also offered little support. Gold’s recent price action remains weak. A sequence of lower lows over several months could point to continued selling p

by BlackBull Markets

Could Anthropic’s 5% giveaway help sell its IPO? Anthropic plans to set aside 5% of its shares for a new public benefit fund aimed at addressing job-destruction from AI. The fund could support nonprofits or make distributions to selected groups. Further details about the fund’s governance are still to come. At a potential $2 trillion valuation, a 5% stake would be worth $100 billion on paper. That raises a question ahead of the IPO: could giving more people a financial interest in Anthropic’s success help build support for its IPO valuati

by BlackBull Markets

Brent oil: Bigger fires, higher prices?Images of fires at oil facilities in St. Petersburg could influence oil’s opening move this week. Whether prices hold those gains may depend on how much supply is actually disrupted. The facilities affected include the Petersburg Oil Terminal and a fuel depot, rather than a refinery. That makes the immediate question how much stored fuel or export capacity has been affected. The reports reviewed do not establish the volume of supply lost. Brent approached $110 a barrel on Friday after gainin

by BlackBull Markets

Who has seen Anthropic’s latest numbers?Anthropic was scheduled to disclose its third-quarter financials to potential investors on Wednesday at a closed-door pre-IPO investor day. The numbers could help determine how much investors are willing to pay when the company goes public. Recently, OpenAI shared its updated revenue number of $50 billion with inside investors, which dragged down major semiconductor stocks and the broader Nasdaq. The market is now waiting for Anthropic’s numbers to leak. But beware of any accounting trick

by BlackBull Markets

Who could move markets at the IMF meetings? Growth, inflation and interest rates are in focus as finance officials from around the world gather in Bangkok this week for the 2026 IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings. With US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent absent, attention could turn to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak at a public event on October 16. Speaking elsewhere, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said long-term US Treasury yields are doing “some” of the work of tighter monetary policy. Wh

by BlackBull Markets

Oil’s three-way tug of war President Donald Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, with further deliveries to follow. US diesel futures fell almost 5% after the announcement. Although six senators called on Sunday for the administration to reverse course. That leaves political uncertainty around the plan. More Russian diesel could help bring fuel prices down. But renewed attacks in Saudi Arabia and unresolved US-Iran talks are keeping supply risks in focus

by BlackBull Markets

Current AI stories that matter for Anthropic’s IPO Three developments are giving investors more to consider ahead of Anthropic’s IPO: • OpenAI’s annualised revenue is now estimated to be 29% below the $70 billion indicated by figures circulated a month earlier. A run rate estimates annual revenue by extending a recent period of sales across a full year. For Anthropic, the risk is that investors take a closer look at its own revenue assumptions before accepting its IPO valuation. AI-exposed stocks fell following the report. Oracle fell 5.5%

by BlackBull Markets

Is October too soon for another Fed hike? All voting Federal Reserve members backed an increase in US interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. But the next decision may be more contentious. The September minutes showed officials remain concerned that inflation is sticky, and they expect another rate increase before the end of the year. Perhaps the most interesting/ dubious claim from the minutes is that they see no rate hike next year The Fed has two meetings left: October 28 and December 9. Recent inflation data could make an Oc

by BlackBull Markets

What could the FOMC minutes mean for USD/JPY? The FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, could offer fresh clues about further US rate hikes. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has already offered her view. Speaking to Axios, she said she supported September’s hike but is not committing to another. If energy pressures ease and tariff effects work through the economy, she sees room for the Fed to hold steady. The minutes could show how widely that view is shared. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Ayano Sato, supports raising rates in stag

by BlackBull Markets

Can Anthropic afford to wait? Rising bond yields have made the market more uncertain, but Anthropic still has reasons to go ahead with its IPO. Higher borrowing costs can weigh on stock valuations and make investors less willing to pay high prices for new listings. But waiting does not guarantee better conditions. Interest rates could stay high, and markets could get worse. For a company that needs cash to fund its growth, going public could still make sense. The Nasdaq Composite is also trading at a record high. That gi

by BlackBull Markets

Traders await Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed price pressures remained elevated in July. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation reached 3.7%, slightly above forecasts of 3.6%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased 0.2% during the month. Core inflation remained at 3.3% year-over-year, well above the Federal R

by BlackBull Markets

Debasement Trade returns as banks raise Gold targets Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has urged investors to reduce exposure to bonds and hold more gold, alongside “a bit” of Bitcoin, as concerns around the so-called “debasement trade” return to markets. The idea is that rising government debt, persistent inflation and monetary expansion could weaken the long-term value of the U.S. dollar, increasing demand for assets such as gold. The precious metal briefly traded as high as $4,696 an ounce on Tuesday, its highest level in more than three month

by BlackBull Markets

Trading Nvidia's Earnings -26-8-2026 Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday and is entering the report with momentum working against it. The stock has now fallen for seven consecutive trading sessions, one of its longest losing streaks in years. That creates an interesting setup for the earnings reaction. The stock has fallen after 5 of its last 6 earnings reports, with the last four quarterly releases seeing an average decline of around 6%. That means a simple earnings beat may not be enough. The market is likely looking for a mean

by BlackBull Markets

Tariff fight raises the stakes for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement The Canadian dollar is potentially sensitive to further trade headlines. Trade talks between US and Canada collapsed Friday, with the U.S. imposing 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of Canadian goods from Saturday. Canada responded by announcing dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on selected U.S. imports, due to take effect on September 8. The breakdown also creates another complication for the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Discussions between the US and Mexico have al

by BlackBull Markets

Would Traders Pay $100,000 a Month for Trump’s Posts?Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, released its second-quarter results last week. And one part of the report deserves a little more attention. Launched on August 1, Truth API provides paying customers with priority access to President Trump’s Truth tweets. According to Reuters, subscriptions can cost up to $100,000 per month. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why would anyone pay t

by BlackBull Markets

Bitcoin breaks out. Can Ethereum confirm?Bitcoin has surged more than 12% over the past two sessions, pushing back above $70,000. The rally follows the White House hosting executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, Ripple and Chainlink, with President Donald Trump urging Congress to pass “a fair version” of the Clarity Act before the end of the year. A sustained move above recent resistance levels could signal renewed momentum, but confirmation from the wider crypto market will be important. Ethereum is one asset traders are watc

by BlackBull Markets

Three stories driving markets today Moderna and Merck reported positive Phase 3 results for their personalised mRNA cancer treatment in high-risk melanoma patients, bringing the companies closer to seeking regulatory approval. Moderna shares surged around 177% on the news. The US Treasury will more than double some purchases of longer-term government debt between September 9 and November 4, targeting a market under pressure from rising yields and heavy government borrowing. The announcement triggered a sharp move in bonds,

by BlackBull Markets