SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)Price continues to respect short-term momentum structure as the trend rebuilds off the recent pullback.
The 10 & 20 EMAs are maintaining upward curvature, showing sustained short-term momentum
The 50 EMA has turned higher as well, though with a more gradual slope — indicating developing support rather than aggressive expansion
The 200 EMA continues its steady upward trajectory, keeping the broader structure intact
Since the March 30th pivot, both RSI and OBV have shown constructive behavior:
RSI holding in the upper range → consistent participation
OBV trending higher → confirming accumulation rather than divergence
This combination suggests the move is being supported, not just price-driven.
What I’m Watching:
Whether price can hold above the rising 10/20 EMA cluster on any pullbacks
If the 50 EMA begins to accelerate, aligning more closely with short-term momentum
Continued confirmation from OBV (no divergence) and RSI holding above midline
Any signs of compression vs expansion (ATR behavior) as price approaches local highs
At this stage, structure remains constructive, but monitoring how price behaves near these levels will help determine whether this is continuation or early signs of exhaustion.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focusing on alignment between trend, momentum, and participation. Next Volatility Period: Around May 2nd ~ Around May 8th
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------------------------------------
This volatility period is expected to continue until April 23rd.
We need to see if the price can rise above the downtrend line (3) and maintain its position after the volatility period ends.
If the price fails to rise and falls,
1st: 74342.27
2nd: 67720.67 ~ 69978.65
You must check if it receives support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
If it falls below the upward trend line (1), it will effectively fall below the long-term trend line, so you must prepare for further decline.
-
A full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the time when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart can be considered the final buying opportunity.
Since it has converged into the HA-Low ~ HA-High zone of 67720.67 ~ 74342.27, a trend may develop if it receives support near this zone.
A trend may have already started, but caution is required when trading as the price is still positioned below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
-
The next period of volatility is expected around May 8th, but since ETH's volatility period begins around May 2nd, the period between May 2nd and 8th is expected to be the primary volatility period.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
-
This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
What a clean breakout setup looks likeOn the 1-hour timeframe, BULL is showing a textbook transition from compression into expansion, supported by alignment across structure, momentum, and participation.
Structure (EMA Alignment):
Price is now trading above the 10 / 20 / 50 EMAs, all stacked above the 200 EMA
This reflects short-term trend control with higher timeframe support building underneath
Prior consolidation phase created a tight base → now resolving higher
Momentum (RSI):
RSI holding in the upper range (~80+)
Indicates sustained momentum rather than a single spike
No major bearish divergence present → momentum remains intact
Participation (OBV):
OBV continues trending higher
Confirms buyers are actively supporting the move, not just price drifting upward
Expansion (ATR):
ATR is beginning to rise after a period of contraction
Signals volatility expansion → trend continuation environment
🔍 What This Setup Represents
This is a classic structure sequence:
Compression → Breakout → Momentum Hold → Expansion
When all four phases align:
Structure leads
Momentum confirms
Participation validates
Volatility expands
That’s when moves tend to sustain rather than fade quickly
⚠️ Context Note
At current levels, price is extended short-term, so this becomes more about:
Monitoring pullback structure
Watching if EMAs continue to act as support
Observing whether momentum stays elevated or begins to fade
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
This isn’t about predicting the next move —
it’s about recognizing when market structure, momentum, and participation are all aligned.
That alignment is what turns simple breakouts into sustained trends. 
Education
Is BTC Setting Up for a Sharp Drop Below $70K?Bitcoin price faced a rejection near the crucial resistance, plunging by 2.62% to reach close to $75,000. The rally seems to be driven by geopolitical news, as the recent gains have completely faded. The IRGC fully blocked the Strait of Hormuz again, which has intensified the selling pressure on the token.
After another rejection near the $75K–$78K zone, price action is starting to show signs of exhaustion, not continuation. What makes this setup more concerning is what’s happening beneath the surface. Profit-taking is rising, positioning remains fragile, and the structure continues to print lower highs. This is not a confirmed breakdown yet—but it is no longer a healthy uptrend either.
The current setup increasingly resembles early-stage distribution, where upside attempts weaken, and downside risk quietly builds.
Profit-Taking Rises as Short-Term Holders Turn Active
Short-Term Holder SOPR is now consistently hovering around and above the 1 mark, signaling that recent buyers are actively realizing profits. When SOPR stays above 1, it typically reflects selling into strength rather than holding for higher prices, a behavior often seen during early distribution phases.
btc price
However, the data also shows that SOPR is not breaking down below 1 in a sustained way, meaning the market hasn’t entered capitulation yet. Instead, this points to a more controlled environment where participants are gradually offloading positions without panic. In other words, selling pressure is building, but not at a level that confirms a full trend reversal just yet.
Market Remains Indecisive as Long/Short Positioning Stays Mixed
The BTC long/short ratio reflects a market that lacks clear directional conviction. Buy and sell pressure continues to alternate, with no sustained dominance from either side. This kind of imbalance typically signals indecision rather than trend strength, especially when it appears near key resistance levels.
btc price
However, occasional spikes in long positioning suggest that traders are still attempting to bet on upside continuation. The problem is timing. When long exposure builds without a confirmed breakout, it often creates a vulnerable setup where even a small downside move can trigger liquidations. For now, the data doesn’t show extreme crowding, but it does highlight a market that is fragile, reactive, and prone to sudden volatility rather than stable continuation.
BTC Faces Rejection as Downtrend Structure Holds
Bitcoin’s price action continues to respect a clear descending trendline, with the latest move once again rejecting near the $75K–$78K resistance zone. This marks another lower high, reinforcing the broader downtrend that has been in place since the previous peak.
btc price
While the recent bounce from the $60K–$65K region shows buyers are still active at lower levels, the inability to break above resistance keeps the structure weak. As long as Bitcoin price remains below this trendline, the path of least resistance leans downward.
From here, the key level to watch sits near the $70K zone. A sustained move below this area could expose BTC to a deeper correction toward the $60K–$55K range. On the upside, bulls need a decisive breakout above $78K to invalidate the current structure and shift momentum back in their favor.
What’s Next for the BTC Price Rally?
The Bitcoin price is not breaking down yet, but the structure is no longer supportive of upside continuation. With repeated rejections at resistance, rising profit-taking, and fragile positioning, the market is starting to tilt toward a liquidity-driven move rather than a sustained rally. This is the kind of setup where late longs get trapped, and volatility expands quickly.
Unless the BTC price reclaims the $78K zone with strong confirmation, the current structure favors a move lower, with $70K acting as the first key test. A breakdown below this level could accelerate downside toward the $60K–$55K region. 
Short
Need to verify if a new high is forming
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------------------------------------
The key indicators are as follows:
1. To sustain the uptrend in the medium to long term, the price must maintain a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
At this point, if the M-Signal on the 1D chart aligns in the order of M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart, it is highly likely that a full-fledged uptrend will begin.
2. The indicators marking the low points are the DOM(-60) indicator and the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, if support is found near the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators, it is highly likely that an uptrend will begin.
3. The indicators marking the high points are the DOM(60) indicator and the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, if resistance is encountered near the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators, it is highly likely that a downtrend will begin.
However, if the price falls from the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend, and if it rises from the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend.
Therefore, you must verify whether it receives support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and resistance in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If it receives support in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range and rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, so you could buy at that point; however, as mentioned earlier, since you bought in a zone corresponding to the peak, you must respond quickly.
---------------------------
Furthermore, if the HA-Low ~ HA-High range converges, the likelihood of forming a trend in the near future increases.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator forms at the 74342.27 point this time, whether it receives support in the 67720.67 ~ 74342.27 range becomes a critical factor.
Since the next volatility period is around April 22 (April 21–23), we need to observe whether the HA-High indicator indicates the first volatility after it is generated.
The main volatility period is around May 2–8, so the movements during this time are important.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
-------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Confirming support around 69978.65
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Nice to meet you, fellow traders.
If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
Have a great day.
------------------------------------
As the price rises, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 69978.65 point.
Accordingly, the key question is whether it can find support and rise in the range of 69978.65 to 71058.26.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone and the OBV indicator is located near the EMA 3 line, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, we must verify whether it can find support around the 67720.67 to 71058.26 range.
The next period of volatility is around April 22nd.
-
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the channel formed by the OBV indicator's Low Line to High Line is in a contracted state, so it is highly likely that volatility will occur soon.
At that time, we need to observe which direction it moves relative to the 69978.65 to 71058.26 range.
------------------------
For prices to rise, at the very least, there must be no outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, USDT is consolidating, while USDC is showing a gap-up.
Accordingly, this indicates that funds are flowing in through USDC.
-
Since the current BTC price has fallen by approximately -50%,
I believe that BTC dominance should rise and USDT dominance should fall.
Therefore, from a chart analysis perspective, I believe it needs to show a strong upward breakout of the 69,000 ~ 73,499.86 range.
Since a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you should monitor the movement when the M-Signal indicator falls to the 69,000–73,499.86 range.
Because the DOM (-60) or HA-Low indicators, which signal a bottom, are not appearing despite the price decline, you should anticipate a possibility of further drops and prepare a response strategy.
Therefore, based on the current price position, the maximum decline is expected to occur around the 57,694.27–61,299.80 range.
-
Looking at the StochRSI indicators on each chart,
the 1M chart is located in the oversold zone, while the 1W and 1D charts are located in the overbought zone.
Therefore, in the event of a price decline, the key factor is expected to be whether support is maintained around the DOM (-60) indicator range of 64,058.15 to 65,776.47.
----------------------------------
Since the current period is a buying time, caution is required when selling.
As mentioned below, a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin in July, so a trading strategy must be developed accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
SPY Daily — Structure Holding StrongPrice continues to trade above the 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, with short-term momentum building.
The 10 EMA and 20 EMA are both trending upward, showing continued short-term strength, while the 50 EMA remains flat but stable—acting as a base of support beneath price.
RSI is holding steady around 60, indicating controlled momentum without entering overbought conditions.
On the volume side, OBV has been trending higher since March 30th, suggesting underlying accumulation remains intact.
Overall, structure remains healthy with alignment across trend, momentum, and volume.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
When price holds above key moving averages with steady RSI and rising OBV, it reflects participation—not just movement. Structure > Emotion. Checking for support in the 234.11 ~ 241.05 range
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------------------------------------
(AMZN 12M Chart)
The important point is the one marked with a circle.
The trend may be determined by whether support is found near this important point, so you need to watch it carefully.
-
(1M Chart)
Looking more closely, the key zones are:
1. 206.16 ~ 239.30,
2. Around 165.73,
3. 70.43 ~ 84.00.
To continue the stair-step upward trend, the price must rise above the 206.16 ~ 239.30 range and maintain the level.
If the price falls around 165.73, there is a possibility of a sharp decline, so you should prepare a response plan for this.
-
(1W Chart)
Looking more closely,
the important zones are
1. 188.99 ~ 239.30,
2. Around 165.73,
3. 70.43 ~ 84.0.
-
(1D Chart)
Since the current price is located in the first important zone, let's examine the 188.99 ~ 239.30 range.
Looking at the 1D chart,
High zone: 234.11 ~ 241.05
Low zone: 198.79 ~ 204.86
To continue the uptrend, the price must maintain a level above around 219.39.
Therefore, if it fails to rise above the peak level this time, we need to check if it finds support around 219.39.
Since the StochRSI indicator has currently entered the overbought zone, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, the key is whether it can break above the peak level and maintain the price.
As the OBV indicator has risen above the High Line, I believe it is highly likely to show an upward trend or consolidate until it falls back below the High Line.
Although the OBV indicator has risen above the High Line and is showing strong buying pressure, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone restricts the rise; therefore, this should be interpreted as a possibility of rapid fatigue accumulating.
-
What we need to monitor currently is:
1. Confirm whether support is found around the 234.11 ~ 241.05 range.
2. Check if the StochRSI indicator shows an upward trend after falling from the overbought zone. 3. Verify whether the channel formed by the Low Line to High Line of the OBV indicator transitions into an ascending channel.
By confirming the above conditions, you can ultimately proceed with a buy order when the price breaks upward through the 234.11–241.05 range.
If the above conditions are not met and the price falls below 219.39, there is a possibility of a sharp decline.
In this case, the key is to confirm whether support is found near the low point.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Long
Need to confirm support in the 1964.96 ~ 2111.42 range
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If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
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------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
This period of volatility is expected to continue until April 3rd.
After that, the direction in which it moves is expected to be a critical factor.
The next period of volatility is expected to begin around May 2nd.
However, since BTC's volatility is expected to occur around April 22nd (April 21st–23rd), we need to monitor its movements during this period.
As the main period of volatility is expected to coincide around May 8th, when the volatility periods of ETH and BTC overlap, it seems necessary to formulate a response strategy accordingly.
-
To maintain an uptrend in the mid-to-long term, the price must hold above the 1597.76–1879.61 range.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator on the 1D and 1W charts is formed at the 1964.96 and 2111.42 points; therefore, if the price rises within this range, it is highly likely to show an uptrend.
However, since the DOM (-60) indicators on the 1W and 1D charts are formed at 1597.76 and 1857.94, the maximum point of decline is expected to be around 1597.76.
-
Therefore, the key factor is whether it can find support in the range of 1597.76 to 2111.42 and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, the likelihood of a continued downtrend increases, so countermeasures for this should be prepared.
-
Looking at the StochRSI indicators on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, the price is in an oversold zone in the long term, but it appears overheated in the medium and short term. Therefore, I believe the price should consolidate further within the current price range.
To determine whether this consolidation becomes an upward or downward consolidation, we must examine whether the channel formed by the Low Line to High Line of the OBV indicator forms an upward or downward channel.
While an upward channel is currently forming, we need to observe whether it is maintained through this period of volatility.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around April 22
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If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
Have a great day.
------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D Chart)
From a chart analysis perspective, the important range is between 69000.0 and 73909.36.
This is because if it falls below this level, there is a high probability that it will show a downtrend in the mid-to-long term.
Therefore, from a chart analysis perspective, I believe it is appropriate to explain countermeasures for a mid-to-long-term downtrend.
However, from a trading perspective, the most critical range is the 57,694.27 to 61,299.80 range.
This is because a drop below this level would mean falling below the previous high point; thus, this is a zone that must be supported to sustain an uptrend in the mid-to-long term.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator point on the 1W chart is formed at 71,058.26, and the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is formed at 67,720.67.
The formation of the HA-Low indicator signifies that a low point zone has been established.
Therefore, if it shows signs of being supported near the HA-Low indicator, it is a buying opportunity.
If this fails and the price falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, so you must consider countermeasures.
Since the end of a stepwise decline is an uptrend, you must ultimately consider how to proceed with buying.
- (1W Chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, you can understand why the creation of the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is important.
While there is no guarantee that past movements will appear similarly in the present, this is because if the price maintains the range of 57,694.27 to 61,299.80 mentioned in the 1D chart, or above that level, it is expected to show an upward trend.
- (1M Chart)
You can identify the previous high point by looking at the 1M chart.
----------------------------------
Therefore,
from a mid-to-long-term perspective, the buying timing corresponds to the area between 57,694.27 and 61,299.80,
and from a short-to-medium-term perspective, the buying timing corresponds to the area between 67,620.39 and 71,058.26.
Thus, you can proceed with the position currently in the buying phase.
However, since the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, position sizing adjustments are necessary.
This is because a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Looking at the current price position at 75,719.90, this corresponds to the StochRSI 20 indicator point on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the likelihood of an upward trend is increasing as the price breaks above the 75,719.90 point.
Therefore, if the price rises when the StochRSI 20 indicator on the 1M chart maintains the 75,719.90 level and the M-Signal indicator passes near this point, that can be considered the final buying opportunity.
After passing through the volatility period around March 23, the price appears to be feigning an upward trend before falling.
The next volatility period is around April 22, but looking at the ETHUSDT chart, a volatility period exists around April 2.
Therefore, you should consider a response strategy assuming there is a possibility that a trend will form after April 2.
To sustain an uptrend after breaking out of a key point or zone, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show an upward trend.
In particular,
1. It is preferable that the StochRSI indicator has not entered the overbought zone. 2. It is advisable for the BSSC indicator to remain above the 0 point.
3. It is advisable for the OBV indicator to remain above the High Line.
When the price breaks upward from any point or zone, you must verify whether the above conditions are satisfied and formulate a trading strategy accordingly.
- Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
-------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500 Target: 7,200 by Year-End (Central Limit Theorem)My Central Limit Theorem indicator is showing a -2.99σ deviation with >99% confidence that the market will reverse soon. My year-end target: S&P 500 at ~7,200 (13% upside from current levels).
HERE'S THE WHY:
1. Significant Statistical Deviation
At -2.99 standard deviations, the market is in the 99.7th percentile of oversold conditions. Historically, moves beyond ±2σ occur less than 5% of the time and rarely persist.
2. The Math Lines Up
The CLTR statistical mean sits at 7,212. This is where the probability distribution expects price to gravitate.
3. 12.65% Drawdown Creating Opportunity
From recent highs, we're down 12.65%. Current drawdown severity suggests capitulation, not the start of a bear market.
4. Time is On Your Side
We're in late March with 9 months until year-end. A reversion to 7,200 doesn't require a melt-up—just 1.4% monthly average returns to get there. That's below the historical equity risk premium.
5. Risk/Reward Asymmetry
If the indicator is right (>99% confidence), upside is 13% to fair value. If wrong, you're buying at extreme oversold levels where downside is statistically limited based on historical reversion patterns.
When the CLTR background turns this deep blue, it's signaling fear has pushed price into territory where mean reversion becomes highly probable, not just possible.
The market is 3 standard deviations below its expected mean. Either reversion happens, or this time is truly different.
This chart shows SP:SPX but the exact same would apply to NASDAQ:NDX / NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:XLK and other indexes. 
Long
Checking if the HA-Low indicator is generated at 71058.26
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M Chart)
Looking at the current price level, you can see that it corresponds to the previous high zone.
Therefore, it is evident that the current price level, specifically the range of 57,694.27 to 71,280.01, is a critical zone.
-
(1W Chart)
Currently, the HA-Low indicator appears to be forming at the 71,058.26 point.
Accordingly, the key question is whether it can find support and rise within the range of 57,694.27 to 71,280.01.
If the HA-Low indicator forms at the 71058.26 point, the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone is formed between 65776.47 and 71058.26; therefore, if the price finds support in this zone, it constitutes a buying opportunity.
This is because the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators mark the low points.
One thing to note here is that the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, it is advisable to proceed with day trading.
This is because a drop below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart implies a high probability of entering a full-scale downtrend.
You can see that a significant uptrend was observed as the Low Line ~ High Line zone of the OBV indicator expanded (forming an ascending channel).
Therefore, we need to observe whether it will form an ascending channel and show an uptrend this time as well.
To do so, we must verify whether it is showing a sideways movement from its current price position.
In this sense, it is the same as what was mentioned in the idea below, "The uptrend in the coin market is expected to start in July."
-
(1D Chart)
Looking at the chart's movement, the basic flow is that if it finds support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone and rises, it encounters resistance upon reaching the HA-High ~ DOM(60) zone.
However, if it rises from the HA-High ~ DOM(60) zone, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, and if it falls from the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, we must carefully observe whether trading is possible when the price is located near DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60). As mentioned earlier, if the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is advisable to proceed with day trading.
Accordingly, a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin upon breaking upwards from the 78595.86 ~ 89294.25 range.
-
Looking at it in more detail,
- 65776.47 ~ 69000.0,
- 69000.0 ~ 71280.01,
- 71280.01 ~ 73499.86
The price can be examined by dividing it into the above ranges.
Since the HA-Low indicator is currently formed at the 67720.67 and 71058.26 points, you should focus on finding trading opportunities within the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range. However, as mentioned earlier, the price is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, and since there is a possibility of sideways movement until July, position sizing is necessary.
- Since the StochRSI indicator appears to have entered the overbought zone, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, we need to confirm whether support is found around the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range.
To sustain the uptrend, the OBV, BSSC, and StochRSI indicators must show an upward trend.
To achieve this:
1. It is desirable for the StochRSI indicator not to have entered the overbought zone.
2. It is desirable for the BSSC indicator to remain above the 0 point.
3. It is desirable for the OBV indicator to remain above the High Line.
Therefore, we must also verify whether the above conditions are satisfied when the price rises after receiving support in the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range. We need to examine whether conditions for an uptrend can be created as the next period of volatility passes around March 23 (March 22–24).
- Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
- - This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Support Zone: 1964.96 ~ 2111.42
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------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1W Chart)
With this rise, the HA-Low indicator is expected to form at the 2111.42 point.
Accordingly, the key factor is whether it can find support around 2111.42.
If it finds support in the range of 1597.76 to 2111.42, it is a buying opportunity.
However, since it is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is advisable to proceed with trading from a day trading perspective.
To break out of the descending channel formed by this decline, it is expected to either rise to the 2419.83 to 2706.15 range to maintain the price, or consolidate in the 1597.76 to 2111.42 range and break out only after the week including May 4th.
-
(1D Chart)
We need to examine whether it can rise along the short-term high upward trend line (1).
Currently, the short-term low trend line (2) has not yet been formed.
Therefore, if the price fails to rise along the short-term high upward trend line (1) and instead falls, it is expected to form a new short-term trend line.
Accordingly, the key factor during the next volatility period is whether the price rises along the short-term high upward trend line (1) as it passes around March 23 (March 22–24).
As mentioned earlier, since the price is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you should formulate a trading strategy assuming there is a high probability that the downtrend will continue.
Therefore, I believe it is advisable to conduct trading from a day trading perspective.
If the price is supported around 2111.42 and rises, you should observe whether it breaks above the 2419.83–2706.15 range and rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If the price maintains its position above the downtrend line (3) while rising, it is expected to lead to an attempt to rise to the area around 3321.30–3438.16.
-
If the price falls below 1597.94 to 1879.61, there is a high probability of a long-term downtrend, so you should prepare a response plan for this.
-
If the price shows signs of support in the 1964.96 to 2111.42 range, we should focus on finding the right trading timing.
If the price falls below 1851.94 and shows signs of resistance, it is advisable to cut your losses and observe the situation.
If the price fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart or fails to break above the 2419.83 to 2706.15 range, it is recommended to sell in installments and monitor the situation.
This trading strategy is an example intended to demonstrate how to utilize chart analysis to trade.
Creating a trading strategy requires investing more time than chart analysis.
A macroscopic trading strategy must be established before you begin trading. Otherwise, there is a high probability that you will fail in your trades due to an inability to withstand price volatility.
The most important factors to observe in chart analysis are support and resistance points.
A trading strategy involves designing how to continue trading during your chosen investment period, responding based on whether support is maintained at these points.
You should avoid day trading where you simply hold onto a position after the price drops immediately upon purchase, as this can cause you to miss better opportunities.
Therefore, it is necessary to clearly determine your investment period before you begin trading.
This is because doing so allows you to formulate a trading strategy tailored to that period and decide on a method for realizing profits.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Should oil continue to be bought long?Regarding oil, another bombshell news broke. The deployment of torpedoes in the Strait of Hormuz, restricting cruise ship access, caused oil prices to rebound, rising from a high of $76 to $89, a gain of $13. Currently, it's trading at $86. The API data also contributed significantly, showing a substantial decrease in the reported value. However, the energy crisis won't last long. The oil premium will eventually be offset by war. Therefore, I believe short-term oil trading should focus on shorting. $86-$88 is a good selling price, with a target of $80-$78.
NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:CL1! CFI:WTI PYTH:USOILSPOT 
Long
Latest trading strategies for gold, silver, oil, and Bitcoin.Gold and silver prices are once again pushing higher. Bitcoin and oil prices are still experiencing significant volatility, but are currently relatively stable. Given the political context, short-term oil trading is still mainly focused on shorting at higher levels, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin are mainly focused on buying at lower levels.
This is true in the absence of dominant news. For very short-term trading, opening positions should prioritize small orders based on available capital. Remember to control trading risk. Observe using the hourly chart. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all showing signs of a rebound; we need to pay attention to how high the rebound will go and whether it can stabilize.
I have listed the following trading plans for your reference:
Gold Trading Plan Reference: Execute a long position in the 5210-5190 range. Target price: 5280-5300. TVC:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD MCX:GOLDM1! COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Silver Trading Plan Reference: Execute a long position in the 86-88 range. Target price: 93-95.
TVC:SILVER COMEX:SI1! COMEX_MINI:SIL1! MCX:SILVER1!
Bitcoin Trading Plan Reference: Execute a long position in the 70000-69000 range. Target price: 73000-74500. INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Oil Trading Plan: Continue selling in the 86-88 range. Target price: 80-79.
NYMEX:CL1! BLACKBULL:WTI CFI:WTI NYMEX:MCL1! ICEEUR:BRN1! PYTH:USOILSPOT FXPRO:USOILJ2026 MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
This trading is limited to intraday trading. Further notice will be given in case of unforeseen circumstances. Please continue to monitor the market. You can also follow the latest trading trends on Gold Legend. 
Short
Check if it can rise above 216.60
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The key is whether the price can hold above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and rise above 216.60.
If it doesn't and falls, it could enter mid- to long-term investment territory, so caution is advised when trading.
To initiate an uptrend, the price must rise above the previous high of 221.46 to 262.40 and remain there.
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The short-term low is formed in the 220.27 to 237.86 range, so the key is to maintain the price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and then rise above the 220.27 to 237.86 range.
The previous low is formed at 338.72, so to initiate an uptrend, the price must rise above 338.72 and remain there.
Therefore, we are likely to see a buying opportunity when the price finds support in the 216.60 to 262.40 range.
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To achieve this, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
We'll have to see if BTC continues its upward trend as it moves through the upcoming volatility period.
If it fails to rise, we'll need to check for support near the first and second levels above:
1st: 115.72,
2nd: 66.51.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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See if it can rise above 1.4033 ~ 1.4698
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The price is declining from important support and resistance levels, and the DOM (-60) indicator is showing signs of forming.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can sustain above 1.2455 and rise above key support and resistance levels.
Since it has fallen below key support and resistance levels, it has entered a medium- to long-term investment zone, so caution is advised when trading.
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Currently, the key question is whether it can rise above the 1.4033 to 1.4698 range.
If it fails to rise, the downward trend is expected to continue, and support around 0.9300 is crucial.
Since it has fallen below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it can be interpreted as a medium- to long-term downtrend.
Therefore, we need to see if the price can rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, breaking through the important support and resistance levels of 1.5 to 1.9669 after finding support in the 1.4033 to 1.4698 range.
To sustain a short-term, stepwise uptrend, the price must rise above 2.1172 to 2.3042 and remain stable. Therefore, even if the price rises, rather than simply trading on the basis of price, it's not too late to identify the conditions for an uptrend and develop a trading strategy based on the support pattern.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
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Education
The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23
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With this rally, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 74057.90 level.
Accordingly, the key question is whether support will be available around 74057.90.
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The OBV indicator is showing signs of rising above the High Line, suggesting a forced upward movement.
At this point, the key question is whether the price can rise above EMA 3.
If the OBV indicator rises above EMA 3 and 75719.90 and the price maintains its upward momentum, a reversal is likely.
However, the StochRSI indicator is in an overbought zone, suggesting a potential limit to the upward movement. Therefore, a support test is expected.
Therefore, we should monitor the current volatility period, which will last until around March 9 (March 8-10), to determine where support will be tested.
The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23, so we should monitor whether conditions are in place for a sustained upward trend before then.
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For the uptrend to continue, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are met and the price rises above 75719.90, the uptrend is expected to continue.
This uptrend is expected to retest support when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
The long-term uptrend is likely to continue when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains its strength.
Therefore, the final buying opportunity is when support is found near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
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The HA-Low indicator, which indicates a low, is designed for trading on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
Therefore, if support is found near the HA-Low indicator, it's a good time to buy.
If the HA-Low indicator declines, a stepwise downward trend is likely, with a new low.
However, since this stepwise downward trend ends in an upward trend, it's time to trade and increase your coin (token) holdings.
Therefore, don't be afraid of stepwise downward trends. Actively engage in trading, practicing trading techniques you haven't attempted before.
Therefore, instead of taking profits in cash, sell the original purchase price to keep the coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits, thereby increasing your holdings.
Since trading isn't something you'll stop after a day or two, consistently trading your current holdings to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits will ultimately lead to significant profits.
To achieve this, it's best to trade based on the purchase price.
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Therefore, if the upward trend continues, the resistance level is:
- 75719.90
- M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart
We need to watch for an upward breakout of the two resistance levels above.
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Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
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- This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-Year Bull Market, 1-Year Bear Market Pattern)
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The key is whether it can rise above 87.68 ~ 92.50
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To continue the uptrend, the price must remain above 81.28.
Therefore, the key is whether it can find support in the 81.28 ~ 91.78 range and rise.
If the upward movement fails, a decline to the 27.15-36.84 level is likely, so a response plan should be considered.
Accordingly, the 66.26 level is the stop-loss point.
If the price finds support in the 81.28-91.78 range and rises, it is expected to attempt an upward move toward the Fibonacci level of 1.618 (156.85).
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To continue the uptrend by breaking above key levels or milestones, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above the 0 level.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Check to see if the above conditions are met.
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A short-term high has formed in the 87.68 ~ 92.50 range.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can rise above this range and maintain its upward momentum.
If the price declines, support in the 81.28 ~ 83.73 range is crucial.
This is because the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing.
If the upward trend begins, it is expected to lead to an attempt to rise above the 112.86 ~ 115.90 range.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can find support in the 87.68 ~ 92.50 range and continue upward.
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Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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