Can Rupee strengthen further?Rupee has gained almost 2% from its recent peak of 96.85, amid the slew of measures announced by the RBI to curb the speculative trading in the forex markets. Currently it is trading near its 30 Weekly EMA level of 94.6580. Historically, a close below 30WEMA caused rupee to strengthen/consolidate for some time. Given the RBI commitment to take additional measures to protect rupee, as and when required, suggests there is a scope for consolidation/strengthening of the same (Though in long-term thi
Fibonacci
XAUUSD · H1 Elliott Wave + Fibonacci October 14, 2026 ·
1. Market Overview — Gold at a Critical Decision Zone
Gold is approaching a significant technical area around the 50% Fibonacci level at 4,142.218, following a decline from the recent high at 4,217.735.
The key question is whether the current decline represents the final stage of an A-B-C correction or the beginning of a more extensive bearish structure.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, both scenarios remain possible. The market must provide further structural confirmation before either interp
Atul elliot wave analysis Title: Market Cycle Update: Post-2021 Secular Bull Run Correction & Current Wave Structure
Overview
The monumental 13-year secular bull run that commenced in October 2008 and culminated in October 2021 marked the completion of a major multi-year impulse cycle. Following this major peak, the market entered a structural corrective phase characterized by a larger Zigzag (A-B-C) correction pattern.
Detailed Wave Breakdown
* The Secular Impulse (Oct 2008 – Oct 2021):
* This structural advance com
Solana elliot wave analysis 1. Primary Wave Structure Breakdown
* Cycle Wave I (Grand Supercycle/Primary Bull Wave): Dec 2022 low up to the November 2024 / January 2025 peak ($293–$295 ATH region).
* Cycle Wave II (Corrective Phase): An ABC Irregular (Expanded) Flat correction following the peak.
* Wave A: Initial sharp downside reaction.
* Wave B: Corrective counter-trend bounce that typically retraces near or slightly above the prior wave origin/ATH.
* Wave C: A terminal 5-subwave impulse structure (waves 1-2-
Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE): Structural Elliott Wave Analysis 1. Macro Context & The 20-Year Grand Supercycle (Oct 2001 – Sep 2021)
The structural journey of Bajaj Finance following the major market low in October 2001 carved out a massive, multi-decade impulse advance that culminated at the September 2021 top. This 20-year secular bull run completed a higher-degree impulse sequence (Grand Supercycle / Wave I or Wave ), driving exponential wealth creation backed by aggressive compounding of assets under management (AUM) and retail lending expansion.
2. Th
Nifty Structural Elliott Wave Outlook1. Macro Cycle Context & Wave A (Irregular Flat Setup)
The grand bull cycle that commenced in 2020 culminated in a major peak in September 2024, marking the completion of the primary first wave. Following this high, Nifty initiated a complex corrective phase characterized by an irregular (expanded) flat (A-B-C) correction.
During this setup:
* Wave A unfolded in a distinct three-wave corrective structure.
* Wave B subsequently surged above the origin of Wave A. This behavior is standard textbo
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 5 Toward 4,260
From Kelly’s view, gold is still holding a constructive bullish structure after the strong recovery from the 4,070–4,100 area. Price is currently trading around 4,187, while the latest pullback is approaching an important Wave (4) retracement and buy zone above the rising trendline.
The key idea is simple: if buyers defend the 4,170–4,180 area, gold may complete Wave (4) and begin the next bullish Wave (5) toward 4,216, 4,227, and eventually the 4,250–4,260 Fibonacci target zone.
⟡ Market str
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 5 Toward 4,260
From Kelly’s view, gold is still holding a constructive bullish structure after completing a deeper Wave (4) pullback into the 4,150–4,170 support area. Price is currently trading around 4,187, while buyers are attempting to rebuild momentum above the recent retracement zone.
The key idea is simple: if buyers continue to defend the 4,165–4,175 buy zone, gold may resume the bullish sequence toward 4,200, 4,217, and eventually the projected 4,250–4,260 Wave (5) target.
⟡ Market structure
Gold
XAUUSD — 4,100 Is the Last Buyer Test
Gold is trading in a sensitive area again, and this chart is giving a very clear message: buyers are trying to defend the bottom, but the recovery still looks weak.
After the strong rejection from the upper area near 4,220, price failed to continue higher and quickly returned back into the lower range. That rejection is important because it shows that the market did not accept higher prices.
The move above the previous structure looked more like a liquidity grab than a clean bullish breakout
H1 Liquidity Sweep Toward 4,207
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is recovering strongly today, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and easing oil prices. Spot Gold recently gained around 1.4%, while Treasury yields pulled back from their recent highs. Markets still see only about a 19% chance of another Fed hike in October, but December tightening expectations remain elevated around 84%, keeping volatility high. Reuters
The next important catalyst is U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, which could influence USD and Tre
Decline on gold contained ?We had seen gold consolidating in a sideways direction for around 2 weeks, and had tried to give breakout above the bearish trendline, but for it the confirm the reversal we need decisive breakout and sustenance above the level of 4230.
Looking at the structure it seems like the continuation on the bearish direction would be an easier option for gold if it give the breakout below 4168 citing trend failure, and the structure alignment of overall price action.
Immediate resistance is at 4230 and
XAUUSD — Weekly Bullish Recovery From Right Shoulder
Gold is entering next week with a constructive recovery structure after reacting from the lower support base. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be building a larger bullish reversal pattern, with the current price holding above the Right Shoulder / Buy Zone area.
The key idea is simple: if gold continues to defend the 4,100–4,150 support zone, the market may start building the next bullish leg toward the upper resistance levels.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 5 Toward 4,300
From Kelly’s view, gold is rebuilding a bullish structure after the strong recovery from the 4,065–4,080 area. Price is currently trading around 4,194, back above the rising channel midline, while the latest impulsive move suggests buyers are regaining control.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue higher toward the 4,220–4,230 Wave (3) resistance, then complete a corrective Wave (4) toward 4,175–4,182 before the larger Wave (5) expansion targets the 4,298–4,307 area.
⟡ Market structure
XAUUSD: Trendline Break or Bull Trap?
Market Context
Gold is starting to show a stronger reaction from the lower demand area after several weeks of bearish pressure.
The main trend has been bearish, with price moving inside a descending structure and respecting the downward trendline multiple times. However, the latest reaction from the lower channel area is important because buyers have finally created a short-term CHoCH and pushed price back above the immediate bearish pressure zone.
This does not mean gold has fully turned b
Nifty Hits the Weekly 200 EMA — Hold or Break Below 22,182 ?Nifty had its sharpest weekly fall of this entire decline, closing at 22,421.95, down 718.55 points (-3.11%), with the week's low at 22,217.30. This single week has now broken through every level mapped out since late August — 23,070, 23,000, 22,975, 22,910, 22,825, and 22,737 — all of which now sit above as resistance.
Why this week's low matters:
The week's low of 22,217.30 came within striking distance of two major references landing almost exactly in the same place:
1.0 Fib extension at 2
H1 Support Rebound Toward 4,220 Liquidity
Fundamental
Gold remains under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields after the latest Fed minutes reinforced expectations for another rate hike later this year. Markets are currently pricing a low probability of an October hike but around an 85% chance of a December increase. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said further hikes may be needed, although the timing can remain flexible. Reuters
This keeps the short-term macro backdrop challenging for Gold, while geopo
100 on cards for USDINR?Rupee has been trading in the consolidation range of 94-96.70, in the last couple of months. Although the dollar inflows from FCNR(B) were quite robust, the ongoing US-Iran war which keeping the crude at higher levels, higher bond yields across the developed markets and, the lack of hot sectors such as AI and semiconductors kept the FII outflows intact. Though FDI inflows have been good, this is not helping to sustain the rupee levels. As the rate hike cycle beginning across the DMs as well as i
XAUUSD — Bearish Wave 5 Toward 4,025
From Kelly’s view, gold remains inside a clear descending structure, with price currently trading around 4,123 below the upper boundary of the bearish channel. The latest recovery still looks corrective, while the 4,135–4,143 area is acting as the key resistance and projected Wave (4) sell zone.
The key idea is simple: if sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone, gold may complete Wave (4) and begin another bearish leg toward 4,100, 4,067, and eventually the 4,020–4,030 Wave (5) tar
Is Wave (III) Starting in NSE Stock Syncom?🧬 SYNCOM Can Wave (III) Push It to ₹47+?
NSE:SYNCOMF appears to be developing an interesting Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart . The advance from 4.60 to 27.90 can be interpreted as a five-wave impulse, potentially completing a larger Wave (I) . Price then corrected from 27.90 to 10.21 , with the decline appearing to form an A-B-C corrective structure that may have completed Wave (II) at 10.21. Since that low, price has rebounded strongly and is now trading around 24.
Sensex 4H: What Happens After This Correction? BSE:SENSEX 4H: Wave (IV) as W-X-Y?
The S&P BSE Sensex 4-hour chart's ongoing decline can be interpreted as part of the larger Wave (IV) correction, currently developing in a W-X-Y structure.
📈 Short-term scenario:
71,605 is the immediate support level I am watching. If Sensex breaks 71,605 and continues closing below this level, the current Wave (Y) could potentially extend toward: 67,648 → 65,582 → 62,612
These are projected levels for the possible corrective path.
📉 Long-term
XAUUSD — Bearish Wave 5 Toward 4,060
From Kelly’s view, gold has shifted into a short-term bearish structure after losing the previous rising channel. Price is currently trading around 4,160, directly below an important Wave (2) sell zone, while the latest rebound still looks corrective rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The key idea is simple: if sellers continue to defend the 4,160–4,180 resistance area, gold may resume the bearish Elliott Wave sequence toward 4,110 first and potentially the 4,055–4,065 Fibonacci target z
GIFT NIFTY: Could Hit Targets 20944, 20595 or 20353🌊 GIFT NIFTY 50 INDEX FUTURES — Elliott Wave Analysis
GIFT NIFTY appears to be developing a larger A-B-C corrective structure after completing a major five-wave advance at 26694.5 . Wave (V) completed at 26694.5, and price has now entered a corrective phase.
🎯 Targets:
Short-term: 20944 — 20595 — 20353
Longer-term: 17607 — 16822
🚨 Crucial level: 24798
Strong resistance / invalidation: 26695
A sustained move above 26694.5 would invalidate my current bearish corrective scenari
Cummins India – Watching the Wave 4 ReboundThe current decline appears to be progressing through a five-wave structure, with Wave (3) producing the strongest part of the move lower.
Price has now bounced into the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near ₹4,858, with 0.5 around ₹4,894 acting as the next reference. This rebound could represent Wave (4) before the final Wave (5) decline.
A rejection from the ₹4,858–₹4,894 region would strengthen the bearish count and keep the Wave (5) scenario in play.
XAUUSD — Medium-Term Bearish Structure Below Fib ZoneXAUUSD — Medium-Term Bearish Structure Below Fib Zone
Gold is showing a clear medium-term bearish structure after completing a large Head and Shoulders pattern. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD remains under downside pressure, and the current consolidation may only be a pause before the next bearish leg continues.
The key idea is simple: gold is still trading below the Fibonacci sell zone, and as long as buyers cannot reclaim that resistance, the medium-term structure remains b























