XAUUSD: The Rebound Is Testing Sellers Again XAUUSD: The Rebound Is Testing Sellers Again
Market Context
Gold moved through a very mixed week. Early in the week, buyers were trying to extend the recovery inside a bullish channel. Price pushed higher, reclaimed short-term structure, and briefly gave the market a stronger bullish tone.
But the recovery was not clean. Each time gold moved into the upper zones, sellers reacted again. The market failed to build a strong continuation above the premium area, then dropped back into the lower reaction zones.
Now gold is trading around 4,120 after another short-term rebound. Buyers are trying to recover, but the overall structure still faces downside pressure. The next reaction around 4,150 - 4,180 will decide whether this bounce continues or turns into another sell setup.
Weekly Recap
Early week: Buyers controlled the short-term channel and aimed toward 4,200.
Midweek: Price failed to hold the upper recovery zone and started losing momentum.
Thursday: Sellers defended resistance, pushing gold back toward the lower reaction area.
Friday: Gold is rebounding again, but it is now moving directly into the first sell reaction zone.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently in a short-term rebound, but the broader structure is still not fully bullish. The chart still shows downside pressure from the previous bearish leg, and price is now approaching resistance.
The first important resistance is 4,150 - 4,180. This is the First Sell Reaction zone. If gold reaches this area and rejects, sellers may push price back toward the Buy Reaction Zone around 4,058 - 4,065.
Above that, the Premium Sell Zone remains around 4,180 - 4,200. A strong break above this zone is needed before buyers can confirm a stronger bullish reversal.
The Buy Reaction Zone around 4,058 is the key support below. If this zone holds, gold can still create another rebound. But if it breaks, the market may fall deeper toward the 3,960 - 3,980 Deep Demand Zone.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,120
First Sell Reaction Zone: 4,150 - 4,180
Premium Sell Zone: 4,180 - 4,200
Buy Reaction Zone: 4,058 - 4,065
Deep Demand Zone: 3,960 - 3,980
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,200
Bearish Risk: Below 4,058
Trading Plan
Sell Scenario: Rejection From First Sell Zone
Entry: 4,150 - 4,180 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,200
TP1: 4,120
TP2: 4,080
TP3: 4,058
Conditions: Price must rebound into the First Sell Reaction zone and fail to continue higher. Bearish rejection should appear, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again. This is the main area to watch if gold continues recovering without strong breakout volume.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Premium Zone Rejection
Entry: 4,180 - 4,200 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,220
TP1: 4,150
TP2: 4,120
TP3: 4,058
Conditions: Price pushes into the Premium Sell Zone but fails to break above 4,200. Strong rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the upper structure.
Buy Scenario: Reaction From Support
Entry: 4,058 - 4,065 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,030
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,120
TP3: 4,150
Conditions: Price must pull back into the Buy Reaction Zone and show a clear bullish reaction. Buyers need to defend 4,058 and create a lower-timeframe CHOCH before considering a rebound trade.
Breakout Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,200 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,180
TP1: 4,230
TP2: 4,260
TP3: 4,280
Conditions: Price must break above the Premium Sell Zone with strength, retest 4,180 - 4,200 successfully, and hold above the zone. Without this confirmation, buying into resistance remains risky.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,058 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,080
TP1: 4,030
TP2: 4,000
TP3: 3,980
Conditions: Price loses the Buy Reaction Zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the rebound has failed and gold may rotate back toward the Deep Demand Zone.
Overall Bias
Gold is recovering, but the weekly structure is still not fully bullish. Buyers defended the lower zone, but they have not reclaimed the premium resistance yet.
The key area now is 4,150 - 4,180. If sellers reject price there, gold may return toward 4,058. If buyers break and hold above 4,200, the structure can shift into a stronger bullish recovery.
Best approach: do not chase the rebound. Wait for the reaction at 4,150 - 4,180 or confirmation from the Buy Reaction Zone.
Will sellers defend the premium zone again, or will buyers finally break above 4,200?
Short
Gold Stalls Below $4,130 as Bears Stay ActiveGold has stopped advancing and is now moving sideways below a key supply area. Repeated rejection near $4,125–4,130 shows that buyers are struggling to maintain momentum.
Expectations of future Fed easing are offering some support, but traders remain cautious ahead of fresh US inflation and jobs data. Until those releases provide clearer direction, upside may stay limited.
Execution plan
Sell zone: $4,120–4,130
SL: $4,165
TP: $4,050
The bearish setup remains valid while price stays below $4,130. Long 
Short
10th Jul 2026 — Nifty Report — Loss of 64pts, War resuming?Nifty Stance: Neutral
Last week, we took a moderately bullish stance, and things were going smoothly until 3pm on Tuesday the 7th, when the market fell sharply. We only learned the real reason by Wednesday, when Trump posted that the Iran ceasefire is now over. This really spooked the markets, and we fell 728pts (-2.97%) in 2 days.
On Thursday and today, our markets recovered by 400+ pts after Trump said the ceasefire talks are continuing. The result: a weekly loss of 63.95pts (0.26%) for the Nifty.
Despite an EMA crossover to the short side (see the red arrow marker), I am not going with a bearish view, as I believe what we saw this week was a one-off, news-driven market reaction. News events like these cannot be predicted by technical analysis, and the only option we have is to manage risk and do damage control. I intend to stay neutral and go bullish if we get an EMA crossover from bottom to top. However, if the ceasefire talks fail, we might have to look for bearish opportunities.
Important Things to Watch for the Next Week
Quarterly Earnings: HCL Tech, ICICI Prudential AMC, L&T Tech, Tata Elexi, Groww, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, ICICI Lombard, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Polycab, JSW Steel, Havells, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, AXIS Bank, Kotak Bank, YES Bank.
Data points to watch from a domestic perspective: CPI & WPI Inflation, Export/Imports & Trade Balance, M3 Money Supply, FX Reserves.
Data points to watch from a global perspective: US CPI, Retail Sales, Jobless claims, and GDP data from China, the UK, and the Eurozone.
IPO Listing: Kusumgar on 15th Jul. Devson Catalyst (BSE SME), Happy Steels (NSE SME), Laser Power & Infra on 16th Jul.
SBI Funds Management IPO will be open for subscription from 14th to 16th Jul.
If Nifty moves up, the resistance levels are 24335, 24425, and 24613. If Nifty falls, the support levels are 24192, 23925, and 23793.
DISCLAIMER
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should read all related documents carefully and consult a certified advisor before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and Enlistment with RAASB/BSE and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in stocks or derivatives. The SEBI RIA license INA000021757 & RA license INH000025045 are for Balachandran RV Education
Education
Education
Education
Education
Long
Long
Ethereum Is At A Decision Point: The Next Move Could ?Ethereum Is At A Decision Point: The Next Move Could Define The Trend For Weeks.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH Is Rebounding From The Recent Low, But The Bigger Picture Hasn't Changed.
Price Is Now Approaching A Major Daily Bearish Order Block + Fair Value Gap Around $1,900–$2,000, A Zone Where Sellers Could Step Back In.
My View:
🔹 Bullish Above $2,150(Major HTF Breakout)
🔹 Bearish Below $2,050 Until Proven Otherwise
🔹 Lose $1,730, And A Retest Of $1,500 Becomes Increasingly Likely
This Looks Like A Relief Rally Into Higher-Timeframe Supply, Not A Confirmed Trend Reversal.
Do You Think ETH Breaks Through This Resistance, Or Gets Rejected Here?
NFA & DYOR 
Short
Short 
Short
XAUUSD: Rebound to 4,193 May Be Just a Short-Term Bull TrapXAUUSD is holding above the short-term uptrend line near 4,130, leaving room for a potential rebound before sellers truly step back in. However, a strong supply zone lies overhead at 4,193–4,210, coinciding with a resistance area that has previously triggered price reversals.
With US yields remaining high and expectations of continued Fed tightening weighing on gold, the current rally lacks the basis to confirm a sustainable uptrend. The most likely scenario is a bounce from 4,130 to test the 4,193 zone, followed by profit-taking pressure.
Suggested Strategy:
Entry: Sell on rejection near 4,190–4,200
TP: 4,130
SL: Above 4,220 Short 
