BSE - potential Wave 4 completion - Buy
BSE
At a larger degree, the stock is presently in its Wave 3 of Primary degree. In the said wave, stock completed minor degree Wave 3 of Wave (5) of Intermediary degree on 27 May 2026 and has been undergoing correction.
The correction is in the form of a zigzag which is a 5-3-5 sequence numbered as ABC. Wave A got completed on 8 June 2026, Wave B completed on 17 June 2026.
It appears Wave 5 of Wave C got completed at 50% of Wave (i)-Wave (iii) on 20 July 2026.
The stock has in the process achieved a retracement of more than 38.2%.
One may consider buying the stock with a stop loss of 3530 which is very low risk trade.
Wave Analysis
BTC in sideways diametric correctionBTC seems to be forming a diametric pattern and wave f has completed.
We have most likely entered the wave g towards downside.
The targets of ~63,750 and 62,500 could be expected.
The study would need to revised above 65,750
Learning:
In Diametrics, the waves are similar in time but prices related by Fibonacci ratios
Currently, wave C = wave E
wave B = wave F and wave G could be equal to wave A.
So, a diametric is a preferred count as of now
Will keep you guys posted on future possibilities.
Happy Trading!
May the force be with you!
Ending Diagonal in Wave C | Zigzag vs Flat CorrectionOne of the most overlooked Elliott Wave concepts is that Wave C of both Zigzag and Flat corrections can terminate as an Ending Diagonal.
This chart compares both corrective structures side by side and highlights their key differences.
📉 Left Side – Zigzag (5-3-5)
A Zigzag correction consists of:
Wave A: 5-wave Impulse
Wave B: 3-wave corrective structure
Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal
Key Characteristics
✅ Wave B is a corrective move with three subwaves (A-B-C).
✅ Wave B should not make a new high beyond the start of Wave A in a standard Zigzag.
✅ Wave C unfolds as an Ending Diagonal, where:
Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1.
Trendlines converge.
Momentum gradually weakens.
The correction often ends with exhaustion before a reversal.
📈 Right Side – Flat (3-3-5)
A Flat correction has a different internal structure:
Wave A: 3-wave correction
Wave B: 3-wave correction
Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal
Key Characteristics
✅ Wave A itself is corrective, not impulsive.
✅ Wave B commonly retraces most or all of Wave A and can even create a new price high, depending on the Flat variation.
✅ Wave C again develops as a 5-wave Ending Diagonal, showing:
Wave 4 overlapping Wave 1.
Converging trendlines.
Declining momentum.
A high-probability reversal near completion.
🔍 Why the Ending Diagonal Matters
The Ending Diagonal is a terminal pattern that signals a trend is approaching exhaustion.
Important features include:
Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1.
All five waves subdivide into corrective structures.
Price becomes compressed inside converging trendlines.
A sharp reversal often follows after Wave 5 completes.
✅ Confirmation for Long Entry
Rather than buying during the formation of the Ending Diagonal, confirmation is generally stronger after price breaks above the Wave 4 resistance, indicating that the corrective structure has likely finished and a new impulsive move may be underway.
💡 Educational Takeaway
Understanding the difference between Zigzag (5-3-5) and Flat (3-3-5) is essential for identifying the correct Elliott Wave count.
Although both patterns can end with an Ending Diagonal in Wave C, the behavior of Wave A and Wave B is what distinguishes them.
Recognizing these structural differences can help traders anticipate trend exhaustion and prepare for the next impulsive move.
****************************************************************
Warning ⚠
Educational purposes only. This chart illustrates Elliott Wave concepts and one possible market interpretation, not a guaranteed market outcome.
#ElliottWave #EndingDiagonal #Zigzag #FlatCorrection #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #TradingEducation #TradingView #PriceAction #NikhilKanal
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The Fractal Nature Of Elliott Wave [-_-]One of the most fascinating aspects of Elliott Wave Theory is its fractal nature.
The same wave principles repeat across all timeframes—from Monthly and Daily charts down to Intraday charts like the 15-minute timeframe.
This chart demonstrates how a larger degree wave on the Daily timeframe can be broken down into smaller Elliott Wave structures on the 15-minute timeframe.
📈 Daily Timeframe :-
On the higher timeframe, the market is progressing through a standard five-wave impulsive structure.
Wave (1): Initial advance.
Wave (2): Corrective pullback.
Wave (3): Strong impulsive rally.
Wave (4): Corrective consolidation.
Wave (5): Final impulsive leg expected to complete the higher-degree trend.
At this level, the market appears simple, showing only the major swings.
⏱️ 15-Minute Timeframe :-
Zooming into the same market reveals that each higher-degree wave is composed of smaller Elliott Wave patterns.
For example:
The larger Wave (2) is not just a single decline—it unfolds as an ABC corrective pattern.
Once that correction is complete, a new impulsive sequence begins with 1-2-3-4-5, contributing to the larger Wave (3).
The process repeats again, with smaller impulses and corrections building the higher-timeframe trend.
This is the essence of market fractals.
🔍 Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters :-
Understanding this fractal behavior allows traders to:
Identify the larger market trend on higher timeframes.
Wait for smaller corrective structures on lower timeframes.
Improve trade timing by entering after lower-timeframe corrections complete.
Align short-term trades with the dominant higher-timeframe trend.
Instead of treating every timeframe independently, Elliott Wave encourages traders to view them as different degrees of the same market structure.
💡 Key Takeaway :-
Markets don't create different patterns on different timeframes.
They simply repeat the same Elliott Wave structure at different scales.
A complete five-wave move on a Daily chart is built from many smaller impulsive and corrective waves on lower timeframes. Recognizing this relationship helps traders combine trend direction with precise entries, making multi-timeframe analysis one of the most powerful applications of Elliott Wave Theory.
Warning ⚠
Educational purposes only. This chart illustrates the fractal nature of Elliott Wave Theory and is intended to help traders understand how wave structures repeat across multiple timeframes.
#ElliottWave #FractalMarkets #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingEducation #TradingView #MarketStructure #Nifty #SwingTrading #IntradayTrading #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #EndingDiagonal #Zigzag #FlatCorrection #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #TradingEducation #TradingView #PriceAction #NikhilKanal #RECLTD #ElliottWave #Wave3 #ImpulseWave #TechnicalAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #StockMarket #SwingTrading #PositionalTrading #MarketStructure #NSE #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #LeadingDiagonal #Zigzag #DoubleZigzag #TripleZigzag #CorrectiveWaves #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingEducation #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketStructure #StockMarket #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #TradingEducation #MotiveWave #ImpulseWave #LeadingDiagonal #EndingDiagonal #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #StockMarket #MarketStructure #TradingPsychology #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #TradingEducation #LeadingDiagonal #EndingDiagonal #Triangle #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketStructure #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave
NIFTY – INTRADAY TRADING PLAN | 21-Jul-2026 | Expiry DayPrevious Close: 24,239.50 | Last Intraday Support: 24,162 | No Trade Zone: 24,251–24,317 | Last Intraday Resistance Zone: 24,464–24,510 | Buyer's Support: 24,032–24,055
⚠️ This is an educational post for learning purposes only. Please read levels along with price action, volume & candle confirmation before acting. Do not trade blindly on levels.
🟢 SCENARIO 1: GAP UP OPENING (100+ points, i.e., Open above ~24,340)
🔘 A gap-up of 100+ points means Nifty opens well above the No Trade Zone (24,251–24,317) directly near or above the resistance zone (24,464–24,510). This requires patience as gap-up opens are often followed by profit booking.
• 🟢 If price sustains above 24,464–24,510 zone with strong 15-min candle close, it confirms bullish continuation → Long bias can be considered on retest of this zone as support.
• 🔴 If price fails to sustain and slips back below 24,464 after initial spike, it signals exhaustion → Book profits on longs, avoid fresh longs, wait for further confirmation.
• 🟠 If gap-up open comes but price starts drifting back toward No Trade Zone (24,251–24,317) — treat this as a false gap/trap. Best to stay on sidelines till a clear breakout or breakdown happens.
⚙️ Action Plan:
▫️ Wait for first 15-30 min candle to close before entry — don't chase the gap.
▫️ Long Entry: Above 24,510 with SL below 24,464 → Target next resistance zones (trail SL).
▫️ If rejection seen from 24,464–24,510 zone, consider short only after confirmation candle, targeting back toward 24,317.
🟠 SCENARIO 2: FLAT OPENING (Within No Trade Zone 24,251–24,317)
🔘 A flat opening inside the No Trade Zone means the market lacks directional bias at open. This orange zone on chart is a "sideways/consolidation" zone — the dashed nature of trend lines here indicate uncertainty, so patience is key.
• 🟠 If Nifty opens and stays within 24,251–24,317, avoid trading immediately. Let the market pick a direction with volume confirmation.
• 🟢 Breakout above 24,317 with strong volume → Bullish bias activates, look for long opportunities targeting 24,464–24,510 resistance zone.
• 🔴 Breakdown below 24,251 with strong volume → Bearish bias activates, look for short opportunities targeting Last Intraday Support 24,162 and further toward Buyer's Support 24,032–24,055.
⚙️ Action Plan:
▫️ No Trade Zone = No Trade Action. Sit on hands till breakout/breakdown confirmed.
▫️ Use 15-min or 30-min candle close outside zone as trigger, not just wick/spike.
▫️ Avoid overtrading in this chop zone — this is where most retail traders lose money.
🔴 SCENARIO 3: GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ points, i.e., Open below ~24,140)
🔘 A gap-down of 100+ points brings price directly near or below Last Intraday Support (24,162), heading toward Buyer's Support Zone (24,032–24,055). This is a critical zone where buyers may step in.
• 🔴 If price opens below 24,162 and continues to fall with weak bounce, bearish momentum continues → Short bias favoured toward Buyer's Support 24,032–24,055.
• 🟢 If price finds support at 24,032–24,055 zone with reversal candle (hammer/bullish engulfing), this indicates buyers stepping in → Long opportunity for pullback toward 24,162 and possibly No Trade Zone.
• 🟠 If price hovers between 24,032–24,162 without clear direction, treat as consolidation — avoid fresh positions till breakout/breakdown confirmed.
⚙️ Action Plan:
▫️ Short Entry: Below 24,032 with SL above 24,055 → Target lower levels with trailing SL.
▫️ Long Entry (Reversal Play): Only after confirmation candle at 24,032–24,055 zone, SL below the zone low.
▫️ Do not catch falling knives — wait for confirmation candle before entering long from support.
🎯 OPTIONS TRADING – RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS
• 🔸 Always trade options with a predefined Stop Loss — never average a losing options position.
• 🔸 Avoid buying deep OTM options on gap-up/gap-down days — theta decay + IV crush can hurt even if direction is correct.
• 🔸 Position size should never exceed 2-3% of total capital per trade.
• 🔸 Prefer slightly ITM or ATM options for better delta and less time decay impact intraday.
• 🔸 Book partial profits at first target and trail SL for remaining quantity — protect gains.
• 🔸 Avoid trading in No Trade Zones — options premiums decay fast in sideways/choppy markets.
• 🔸 Keep an eye on India VIX — high VIX means wider stop losses needed, adjust position size accordingly.
• 🔸 Never hold overnight positions in weekly options without proper hedge, given theta risk.
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
Today's plan revolves around three key zones — No Trade Zone (24,251–24,317), Resistance Zone (24,464–24,510), and Support Zones (24,162 & 24,032–24,055).
✅ Gap-up opening → Watch resistance zone reaction for long/short bias.
✅ Flat opening → Stay out of No Trade Zone, wait for breakout/breakdown.
✅ Gap-down opening → Watch buyer's support zone for reversal or continuation.
Discipline and patience are more important than prediction. Let the market show its hand at key zones before committing capital. Risk management in options is what separates consistent traders from the rest. 📈📉
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This post is purely for educational purposes to help learners understand price action and level-based trading concepts. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading/investment decisions. Trading in the stock market and derivatives is subject to market risk. 🙏
Varun Beverages - Buy
Varun Beverages
Following a major wave completion during July 2024, the stock went in for a long correction in the form of WXY (one Flat – Wave W, and one Zigzag – Wave Y) which got completed on 23 Mar 2026.
Following the completion of correction, the stock completed its first impulse wave on 17 June 2026 as given in the chart. The correction to the present impulse was in the form a smaller zigzag which is a 5-3-5 sequence.
Wave A got completed on 29 June 2026, Wave B on 1 July 2026 and Wave C was in formation.
It appears that Wave 5 of said Wave C got completed at 50% of the length of Wave 1-3 on 20 July 2026.
One may consider buying the stock with a stop loss of 450 which is a lower risk, high reward set up.
Nifty : Intraday Trading Plan: 22-Jul-2026
Welcome traders! 👋 Here is a detailed, professional trading plan for Nifty 50 for the upcoming session. We will analyze the chart structure to define our strategy for every possible opening scenario.
🎨 Chart Legend & Color Code
🟠 Orange Line/Box: No Trade Zone / Sideways Market / Caution Area.
🟢 Green Line/Box: Bullish Zone / Support / Long Side.
🔴 Red Line: Bearish Zone / Resistance / Short Side.
⚪ Dashed Line: Probable Trend (Maybe/Maybe Not) – Wait for confirmation!
📈 Overall Nifty Trend (Intraday)
Looking at the chart, Nifty is currently trading at 24,193.95. The market is in a consolidation phase after recent volatility.
Immediate Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish.
Key Observation: The price is sandwiched between the Opening Support (24,146) and Opening Resistance (24,230-24,251).
The "Green" Path: If buyers defend 24,146, we could see a solid move up towards 24,317 (Last Intraday Resistance) and potentially 24,375.
The "Red" Path: If sellers push price below 24,146, we might see a slide down to the 24,033-24,056 support zone.
🚀 Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (100+ Points)
(Expected Open: ~24,295 - 24,300)
If the market gaps up by 100+ points, it will open very close to the Last Intraday Resistance (24,317) and well above the Opening Resistance Zone (24,230-24,251).
🔍 Analysis: A gap up of this magnitude often leads to profit booking. The price is entering the "Red Zone" (Resistance).
🟢 Bullish Action (Long): Do not chase the gap immediately. Wait for the price to sustain above 24,317 (Red Line). If a 15-min candle closes above this level, look for a move towards 24,375 (following the green dashed line).
🔴 Bearish Action (Short): If the price opens near 24,300 and shows rejection candles (Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing) at 24,317, initiate a Short position. The target would be a gap fill down to 24,250.
🟠 No Trade: Avoid buying right at the open as the Risk:Reward ratio is poor near resistance.
⚖️ Scenario 2: Flat Opening
(Expected Open: ~24,180 - 24,210)
If the market opens flat, it opens right in the middle of the chart, between the Orange Line (24,146) and the Orange Box (24,230-24,251).
🔍 Analysis: This is the classic "Chop Zone". The market lacks direction initially.
🟠 No Trade Zone: The zone between 24,146 and 24,230 is your "Sideways" area. Trading here is dangerous for option buyers due to Theta decay.
🟢 Bullish Action (Long): Wait for a breakout above the Orange Box (24,251). Once confirmed, go Long with a target of 24,317.
🔴 Bearish Action (Short): Wait for a breakdown below the Orange Line (24,146). Once confirmed, go Short with a target of 24,056 (Green Box).
⚪ Dashed Line Logic: The red dashed line shows a potential drop from the resistance zone, while the green solid line shows a potential rise from support. Patience is key here!
📉 Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (100+ Points)
(Expected Open: ~24,090 - 24,100)
If the market gaps down significantly, it opens below the Orange Line (24,146) and heads straight towards the Last Intraday Support (24,033-24,056).
🔍 Analysis: Panic selling might occur initially. The price is entering the "Green Box" (Strong Support).
🟢 Bullish Action (Long): Watch the 24,033-24,056 zone closely. If the price stabilizes here and forms a reversal pattern (like a Hammer), take a Long position for a bounce back to 24,146 (following the green dashed line up).
🔴 Bearish Action (Short): If the price crashes through 24,033 with high volume, the support has failed. Go Short (follow the trend down).
️ Caution: Gap downs often see a "Dead Cat Bounce". Don't short right at the support line; wait for a breakdown.
🛡️ Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Trading options requires strict discipline. Here are some golden rules:
Stop Loss is Mandatory: Never trade without a Stop Loss (SL). For options, a 10-15% premium SL or a spot level SL (as mentioned above) is crucial.
🔹 Position Sizing: Never risk more than 2-5% of your total capital on a single trade. If you have ₹1 Lakh, don't lose more than ₹2,000-₹5,000 on one setup.
🔹 Avoid the "Orange Zone": If the market is sideways (Flat opening scenario), option buyers will lose money due to time decay (Theta). Stay out or trade very small quantities.
🔹 Trail Your SL: Once you are in profit, move your Stop Loss to your entry price (Cost-to-Cost). Protect your capital first!
🔹 Don't Average Losers: If a trade goes against you, exit. Do not add more quantity to a losing position hoping for a recovery.
Summary & Conclusion
To summarize the plan for 22-Jul-2026:
Trend: The market is range-bound. Watch 24,146 (Support) and 24,230-24,251 (Resistance).
Gap Up: Watch for rejection at 24,317 (Short) or breakout (Long to 24,375).
Flat: Stay out of the 24,146 - 24,230 zone (Orange/No Trade). Trade the breakout/breakdown only.
Gap Down: Watch for support at 24,033-24,056 (Long for bounce).
Conclusion: The chart suggests a battle between bulls and bears in the 24,146 - 24,251 range. The Orange zones indicate areas of confusion—avoid trading there. Wait for the market to pick a direction (Green or Red lines) before committing your capital. The dashed lines remind us that anything is possible, so always wait for candle confirmation! 📈📉
⚠️ Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This post is for educational purposes only. Trading in the stock market and F&O involves high risk and can lead to capital loss. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades. The charts and levels are based on technical analysis and probabilities, not guarantees. 🙏
CRUDEOIL-SELL🛢️ WTI Crude Oil | Elliott Wave Analysis (15M)
After completing what appears to be a five-wave impulsive rally, WTI is showing signs of exhaustion near the recent swing high around 82.30.
The current price action suggests the market may have entered an ABC corrective phase.
Elliott Wave Outlook
🔹 Wave (5) appears complete with weakening bullish momentum.
🔹 Expecting:
Wave A: Initial bearish move.
Wave B: Retracement into the premium zone (ideal short opportunity).
Wave C: Continuation lower toward key liquidity levels.
Trading Plan
✅ Preferred Short Entry: On the Wave B retracement after bearish confirmation.
🛑 Invalidation: Sustained break and close above the recent Wave (5) high.
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 81.20
TP2: 80.80
TP3: 80.20
The confluence of Wave 5 completion, premium pricing, and potential liquidity sweep increases the probability of a corrective decline.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic Elliott Wave count, not financial advice. Proper risk management is essential.
One Market, Infinite TrendsHave you ever noticed something strange while looking at charts? You open the 5-minute timeframe and see a strong uptrend. Then you switch to the 1-hour chart, and the market suddenly looks like it is moving sideways. Move to the daily timeframe, and now it looks like a downtrend. The obvious question is, **which one is correct?
The surprising answer is that they are all correct . The market does not have just one trend. It has many trends happening at the same time. Understanding this simple idea can completely change the way you read charts and explain why experienced traders rarely rely on only one timeframe.
Every Timeframe Tells a Different Story
Think of standing in front of a mountain. If you stand very close, you only see rocks, trees, and small details. As you move farther away, you begin to see the entire mountain. Neither view is wrong. You are simply looking at the same object from a different distance.
Charts work the same way. A lower timeframe shows every small battle between buyers and sellers. A higher timeframe hides that noise and reveals the bigger picture. The market has not changed. Only your perspective has.
The Market Is Fractal:
One of the most fascinating characteristics of financial markets is that they are fractal. This means similar patterns repeat themselves across different timeframes.
A breakout on the 5-minute chart may look almost identical to a breakout on the daily chart. Trends, pullbacks, consolidations, and reversals appear everywhere, whether you are looking at one minute or one month.
It is like zooming into the branches of a tree. Every branch looks similar to the whole tree. The pattern repeats itself at different sizes.
This is why traders can use many of the same price action concepts on almost any timeframe.
Why Trends Can Coexist?
Many beginners believe there can only be one trend at a time. In reality, several trends can exist together without contradicting each other.
Imagine climbing a staircase.
Each step moves upward.
At the same time, you may walk slightly left or right while climbing.
From close up, your movement looks different.
From a distance, everyone can clearly see you are moving upstairs.
The market behaves in a similar way.
The daily chart may be in a strong uptrend.
Inside that uptrend, the 1-hour chart may show a temporary pullback.
Within that pullback, the 5-minute chart may even have its own short-term uptrend.
Each timeframe is simply showing a smaller part of the bigger picture.
The Zoom Illusion
Imagine opening Google Maps.
At the highest zoom level, you can see your entire country.
Zoom in, and you only see your city.
Zoom in again, and you see individual streets.
Finally, you see a single building.
Nothing has changed except your level of zoom.
Charts work the same way.
Changing timeframes is simply changing your zoom level.
The market itself remains the same.
Which Timeframe Is the Best?
This is one of the most common questions traders ask.
The truth is that no timeframe is better than another.
A scalper may only care about the 1-minute chart.
A swing trader may focus on the 4-hour and daily charts.
A long-term investor may rarely look below the weekly timeframe.
The best timeframe is the one that matches your trading style.
Instead of searching for the "perfect" timeframe, successful traders learn how different timeframes work together.
The Bigger Picture Always Matters:
Imagine reading a single sentence from a book without knowing the rest of the story. It is easy to misunderstand its meaning.
The same happens in trading.
Looking at only one timeframe can hide important information. A perfect buy setup on the 15-minute chart might actually be trading directly into a strong resistance level visible on the daily chart.
This is why experienced traders often begin with higher timeframes to understand the overall market direction before moving to lower timeframes to fine-tune their entries.
My Thoughts:
The market does not change when you switch timeframes. Only your perspective changes. Every timeframe reveals a different layer of the same story. Lower timeframes show the details, higher timeframes reveal the bigger picture, and together they create a complete view of the market.
The next time you see two charts showing different trends, remember this simple idea.
The market is not contradicting itself. You are simply looking at the same story from different distances.
By @BrightRally_Research on @TradingView
XAUUSD: Bullish Wave 5 may begin after pullback.Gold is showing a clear recovery structure after completing the previous bearish cycle near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the chart is now shifting into a bullish Elliott sequence, but price may still need one corrective pullback before wave 5 continues higher.
The key idea is simple: gold is bullish in the short term, but the better setup may come from a clean retest of the buy zone, not from chasing the current push.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has reacted strongly from the lower base near 3,960 and created a sequence of higher lows. Price has already broken back above the descending pressure line, which is an important sign that sellers are losing control in the short-term structure.
Gold is now trading around 4,075 after a strong recovery move. However, price is approaching the 4,090–4,100 sell wave 4 zone, so a short correction from this area would be normal.
The main support to watch is the 4,040–4,050 buy zone wave 5. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, the next upside leg may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target near 4,145–4,155.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,040–4,050: buy zone wave 5 and key pullback area
◌ 4,075: current price reaction area
◌ 4,090–4,100: sell wave 4 / short-term resistance
◌ 4,138: previous Fibonacci reference zone
◌ 4,145–4,155: final wave 5 completion area
◌ Below 4,030: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Below 4,000: area where the wave count needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bullish 5-wave recovery after the previous bearish structure ended.
Wave 1 created the first upside reaction from the low.
Wave 2 corrected back but held above the base.
Wave 3 expanded strongly and pushed gold back above the broken trendline.
Wave 4 may now form as a controlled pullback into the 4,040–4,050 buy zone.
If that zone holds, wave 5 may begin and aim for the 4,145–4,155 completion area.
This is why Kelly would not chase the current price directly into resistance. The stronger setup is to wait for wave 4 to finish, then look for confirmation that wave 5 is starting.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to pull back into the buy zone wave 5 and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,040–4,050 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,030
Take profit 1: 4,090–4,100
Take profit 2: 4,138
Take profit 3: 4,145–4,155
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,100 without a pullback and holds strongly, price may continue directly towards the wave 5 target. In that case, a retest of 4,090–4,100 as support would become the cleaner continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the bullish recovery structure is improving, but the market is now close to a short-term resistance zone. That means the best plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,040–4,050 and buyers defend the zone, the next wave 5 move may continue towards the higher Fibonacci target.
Gold is building a bullish Elliott structure.
A controlled pullback may prepare the next move higher.
Share your view below.
XAUUSD — 4,035 Is the Reload Zone XAUUSD — 4,035 Is the Reload Zone
Gold is starting the week with that heavy feeling still sitting on the chart, almost like every bounce is being used to ask the same question: are buyers strong enough, or are they just giving sellers a better price?
Price is holding around the 4,000 area after a weak recovery from 3,982.995, but the bounce has not changed the bigger structure yet. The chart is still printing lower reactions, and the move into the Fibo zone around 4,020 - 4,040 looks more like a retracement than a real reversal. For newer traders, this is the part to slow down: when price drops hard, then climbs back into a 0.5 - 0.618 area without breaking structure, that zone can become a reload area for sellers.
That is why my main view is bearish while gold stays below 4,054.121. The wider pressure also supports that idea, with USD demand still firm as geopolitical tension keeps the market defensive. Gold may still bounce in small waves, but unless it can reclaim 4,054.121 and then push toward 4,072.676, the recovery looks limited.
The main smart money thesis here is simple: price may be breathing into the Fibo zone before hunting lower liquidity again. If sellers reject 4,020 - 4,040 and gold breaks below 3,982.995, the next downside magnet becomes 3,927.583.
This bearish idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims 4,054.121 cleanly and holds above it. A stronger invalidation would be price moving back into the order block and liquidity zone around 4,080 - 4,100.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,000 - 4,020
Main supply / Fibo reload zone: 4,020 - 4,040
Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 3,982.995
First downside liquidity target: 3,960
Main downside target: 3,927.583
Upper resistance if sellers weaken: 4,054.121
Major order block + liquidity zone: 4,080 - 4,100
Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,054.121, stronger above 4,100
Do you see this bounce as a real recovery attempt, or just a Fibo pullback before gold hunts 3,927?
Some rally before the downtrend again resumesMazdock CMP -2354
Garden Reach CMP- 2620
In Elliott the complex correction are the most diff part. But with the help of the oscillators I think I have finally corrected that.
Elliott- the c wave of B is a failure in the both the charts. To me the C wave rally will now begin. The tgt for both the stocks are on the chart.
Conclusion - Thats a zig zag corrective rally and once it will get over the down trend will again resume. Hence exiting the rally is very important.
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBOUNDS, BUT THE REAL TEST IS ABOVE BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBOUNDS, BUT THE REAL TEST IS ABOVE
Gold is recovering from last week’s bottom area, but the market is still not in a clean bullish structure.
Price is moving inside a short-term rising channel after reacting from the lower value zone. The rebound looks controlled, but with US-Iran tension still active and the market pricing at least one Fed hike by year-end, gold may continue to face selling pressure at higher prices.
The chart is clear now: gold can still push higher, but the upper liquidity zone is where the real test begins.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the lower base and is now trading around 4,060.
The POC Buy Reaction Zone around 4,005 - 4,012 remains the main support below current price. As long as gold holds above this area, the short-term rebound can continue.
However, the upper zone around 4,095 - 4,105 is marked as the main sell area. This is where sellers may defend again if price reaches higher liquidity.
The rising channel supports the recovery, but price is now getting closer to resistance. That means chasing buy too late becomes risky.
Important zones
POC Buy Reaction Zone: 4,005 - 4,012
Main value support and reaction base.
Buy scalping area: 4,055 - 4,065
Short-term reaction area inside the current rebound.
Careful selling zone: 4,081
First upper reaction level.
Sell gold here: 4,095 - 4,105
Main resistance and preferred sell-reaction zone.
Last week’s bottom: 3,959
Major downside reference if the recovery fails.
Trading scenario
Sell reaction from 4,095 - 4,105
Entry:
Look for sell positions only if price rallies into 4,095 - 4,105 and shows clear rejection.
Stop Loss:
Above the sell zone or above the local rejection high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,081
TP2: 4,055 - 4,065
TP3: 4,005 - 4,012
This setup is based on waiting for gold to move into upper liquidity first, then watching whether sellers defend that value zone.
Final view
Gold can continue the short-term rebound while it holds above the POC Buy Reaction Zone.
But the main structure is not fully bullish yet. The stronger decision area is above, around 4,095 - 4,105.
If gold reaches that zone and fails, sellers may take control again.
For now, I do not want to chase the middle. Let price reach liquidity. Then trade the reaction.
Institution Option TradingPCR (Put-Call Ratio) – Institutional Trading Strategy
What is PCR?
PCR = Put OI ÷ Call OI
It shows market sentiment of big players in indices like NIFTY 50.
Institutional Psychology
2. How Big Players Use PCR
Retail buys options randomly
Institutions control PCR zones to trap traders
👉 You follow PCR = You follow smart money
📈 PCR Levels (Game Changer)
3. Key Zones
PCR < 0.7 → Bearish sentiment (too many Calls) → ⚠️ Reversal possible
PCR 0.7 – 1 → Neutral zone
PCR > 1.2 → Bullish sentiment (too many Puts) → ⚠️ Reversal possible
Oversold MarketsWhat is overbought?
When the market goes up too much, too fast — like it got overexcited. RSI crosses above 70. This means most people who wanted to buy have already bought. Not many buyers left. So the market will likely slow down or fall a bit.
What you do: don't buy now. If you're already in profit, book some of it. Keep your stop loss tight.
What is oversold?
When the market falls too much, too fast — like everyone panicked and sold everything. RSI drops below 30. Most of the panic selling is already done. So a bounce or recovery is likely coming.
What you do: don't rush in all at once. Wait for one green candle or a volume pickup as confirmation. Then buy in small parts.






















