Layered Structures: Multi patterns formations Explained The Ascending Parallel Channel
Marked by the dotted lines, this is a rising channel — two parallel trendlines, both sloping upward, containing price action between them. It reflects a steady, structured uptrend where price oscillates between a rising support line and a rising resistance line.
The Symmetrical Triangle Within It
Inside this channel, a symmetrical triangle has formed — converging highs and lows compressing into a tighter range. What stands out here is its location: this triangle consolidated near the upper half of the channel, not near the base.
Why Location Matters
This is the core lesson of this chart. The same pattern can behave very differently depending on where it forms inside a larger structure:
1) When consolidation happens near the bottom of a channel, a breakout from there is often referred to as a base breakout — these tend to be the cleaner, more reliable setups to observe, since price is breaking out from a zone of accumulated support.
2) When consolidation happens near the top of a channel, a breakout from there is more of a horizontal top breakout — these are generally less favorable for trading and are better suited for observation only.
The Bigger Picture
This chart is a reminder that multiple patterns often exist within each other, and recognizing not just the pattern but where it sits inside the broader structure is what separates surface-level pattern reading from a deeper understanding of price behavior.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Please conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Understanding the WXY Combination Correction – M&M as an exampleUnderstanding the WXY Combination Correction – Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
M&M completed Wave 3 of the primary degree on 1 December 2025 and has been in a corrective phase since then. Let us understand the type of correction.
Under the Elliott Wave Principle, corrective structures generally unfold in three-wave patterns (A–B–C). The three basic types of corrections are: (a) Flat, (b) Zigzag and (c) Triangles.
Sometimes these corrective patterns combine together, extending the correction in both time and price. Such combinations are labeled W–X–Y (double three) or W–X–Y–X–Z (triple three).
In the current setup, M&M appears to be forming a WXY correction:
Wave W: An Expanded Flat, completed on 30 January 2026.
Wave X: A counter-trend impulse wave, completed on 11 February 2026.
Wave Y: A Zigzag (5–3–5 structure) currently in progress.
Within Wave Y:
Wave A of the zigzag completed on 11 June 2026.
Wave B may have completed on 7 July 2026, although a slightly higher retracement is still possible.
What would confirm completion of the correction?
The correction would be considered complete only after Wave C of the zigzag finishes. In zigzags, when Wave A is a relatively large structure, Wave C does not necessarily have to be much larger; however, it generally needs to make at least an equal or lower low compared with Wave A. That means Wave C should ideally move below the low formed on 11 June 2026.
From here, the key is to monitor Wave C as a five-wave structure. I’ll continue tracking the pattern and share an update once the correction appears complete.
Detailed wave markings are available in the chart for ease of reference. Educational purpose only — not a buy or sell recommendation. 
Education
DON'T TRADE GOLD UNTIL YOU READ THIS ANALYSIS!So, the strong support zone that I shared yesterday worked exactly as expected, and Gold delivered a solid upside move from that area.
Yesterday's sharp decline created a lot of fear in the market. During the closing session, when Gold rejected from around $4092, many traders assumed it was just a retracement before another bearish continuation. As a result, a large number of sellers entered the market expecting further downside.
However, as I clearly mentioned yesterday, I believed this was nothing more than a trap. My overall bias remained bullish, and I planned to continue looking for buying opportunities.
At this point, the sellers who entered near yesterday's close are already under pressure. The interesting part is that Gold still hasn't managed to close above the important $4100 psychological level. This makes the current market structure even more attractive from a psychological perspective.
After the rejection from $4092, there's no doubt that the majority of retail sellers placed their stop losses just above $4100. Since the market has once again rejected from almost the same round-number area, even more sellers have likely entered fresh short positions with their stop losses sitting above $4100.
I believe the market may invite a few more sellers before making its real move. By the end of the day, I expect Gold to turn bullish, break above $4100, and extend toward the $4118-$4124 resistance zone.
Around $4118-$4124, we could see some temporary consolidation. However, once that range breaks, I expect a strong bullish expansion that pushes Gold higher and eventually closes above Wednesday's high.
So, this is my simple trading plan for Thursday.
Overall, I prefer looking for buying opportunities because this week the market has been forming a higher low structure, which suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control. At the same time, the recent sharp decline has attracted a large number of random sellers into the market, and I believe trapping those sellers is necessary before Gold can continue its next bullish leg.
I hope you enjoyed this psychological market analysis and that it helps you prepare for today's trading session.
Now I'd love to hear your opinion.
What is your view on Gold for Thursday? Let me know in the comments!
Long
SENSEX — Trading Plan | 09 July 2026
📅 Sensex Weekly Expiry Day | 15-Min Chart Analysis | Educational Purpose Only
⚠️ Chart Colour Guide — Must Read Before Proceeding:
🟠 Orange Line/Zone = No Trade Zone / Sideways / Wait & Watch
🟢 Green Line/Zone = Bullish Bias / Long Setup
🔴 Red Line/Zone = Bearish Bias / Short Setup
- - - Dashed Lines = Probable price path — may or may not play out — always wait for confirmation
"When the market decides to fall — it falls fast, hard and without mercy. The only protection is your stop loss and your plan." 📖
🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR 09-JUL-2026 (SENSEX WEEKLY EXPIRY DAY)
text
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance → 77,237 ← Strong Supply Zone
🔴 Opening Resistance → 76,863 ← Key Resistance
🟠 CMP / Reference Close → 76,514.28
🟠 Opening Support/Res Zone → 76,050 – 76,399 ← MAIN ORANGE PIVOT ZONE ⚡
🟢 Last Intraday Support → 75,609 – 75,867 ← KEY GREEN SUPPORT ZONE
🟢 Extended Bear Target → 75,000 – 74,750 ← Extreme Bearish Zone
💡 09-Jul-2026 Sensex Expiry Day Context:
🔵 Tomorrow is Sensex Weekly Expiry — making every level more significant
🔵 Market closed weak at 76,514 after a ~1000-point crash session
🔵 Orange pivot zone 76,050–76,399 is now the most critical battleground
🔵 Expiry day + post-crash session = Maximum volatility expected ⚡
🔵 Option premiums will be elevated due to high IV from yesterday's crash
🔵 Theta decay will be aggressive — CE and PE buyers must be extremely careful
🔵 Gap opening of 300+ points is highly probable given yesterday's crash
🔵 SGX Sensex / Gift Nifty levels at 8:00 AM will be crucial gap indicator
🔵 Position sizing must be reduced significantly for expiry day 🛡️
🚀 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (300+ Points Above Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Above 76,814 (i.e., 76,514 + 300)
📖 Understanding The Gap Up Setup on Sensex Expiry Day:
A Gap Up of 300+ points after yesterday's ~1000-point crash on Sensex Expiry Day is an extremely important and complex scenario. Let's understand why this matters so much:
🔸 A 300+ point gap up would open Sensex directly near the 76,863 Opening Resistance zone (red line on chart)
🔸 This kind of recovery gap after a crash is typically driven by:
→ Positive overnight global markets (US, Europe recovering)
→ SGX Sensex strong overnight
→ Short covering by bears who booked profits yesterday
→ Institutional bottom fishing at lower levels
→ Positive domestic news flow
🔸 BUT — on Expiry Day — this becomes a critical trap zone:
→ Option sellers (who sold CEs yesterday at higher IV) will defend their positions aggressively
→ The 76,863 resistance is a natural supply zone — sellers will emerge here
→ Gap up on expiry after a crash = Classic bull trap setup probability is HIGH
→ However, if sustained — can trigger massive short covering rally
This is the highest complexity scenario for expiry day. 🧠
Patience and confirmation are absolutely non-negotiable here.
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP UP OPENING (300+ Points):
⏳ First 15 Minutes — Strictly No Trade:
After a 300+ point gap up on expiry day following a crash — the opening 15 minutes will be extremely volatile and manipulative. Smart money will test both sides. Wait for the first complete 15-min candle before making any decision.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Gap Up Sustains Above 76,863):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps up 300+ points and sustains above 76,863 (Opening Resistance — Red Line) with a strong 15-min candle close. Volume should be above average. This signals genuine buying and possible trend reversal from yesterday's crash.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 76,900 (confirmed sustain above opening resistance)
🔵 Target 1: 77,050
🔵 Target 2: 77,237 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — Red Line on Chart — major target)
🔵 Target 3: 77,500 (if momentum is exceptional — extended recovery)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 76,760 (back below opening resistance zone = bull trap)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 77,000 CE or 77,200 CE (weekly expiry — same day options)
⚡ Critical expiry day warning: On expiry, sustain above resistance must be very clear
⚡ CE premiums will be elevated after yesterday's crash (high IV) — buy smaller quantity
⚡ Book 60% at T1 on expiry day — don't hold too long, theta kills rapidly
⚡ Trailing SL is essential — use 15-min candle low as trail reference
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Gap Up Fails — Sell the Bounce):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps up 300+ points but fails to sustain above 76,863. Sellers emerge aggressively at the resistance zone. Classic "sell the bounce" after a crash. Shooting star or bearish engulfing on 15-min confirms. This is actually the higher probability scenario on expiry day.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 76,750 (confirmed rejection from opening resistance zone)
🔵 Target 1: 76,514 (gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 2: 76,399 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 3: 76,050 🎯 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone — main target)
🔵 Target 4: 75,867 🎯 (upper boundary of Last Intraday Support — green zone)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 76,900 (above opening resistance = short plan fails)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,500 PE or 76,000 PE on confirmed rejection and fade below 76,750
⚡ "Sell the bounce" on expiry after crash = One of the highest probability setups
⚡ On expiry — PE premiums can multiply very fast if market falls
⚡ Book 50% at T1 (gap fill), 30% at T2, trail remaining 20% for T3/T4
⚡ Move SL to cost once T1 is achieved — protect capital always
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Up — 300+ Points):
Market gaps up 300+ points and oscillates between 76,750 – 76,863 = Dangerous chop zone ⛔
🔵 Both bulls and bears are fighting at the opening resistance
🔵 Expiry day + crash recovery + resistance = Maximum fake moves
🔵 CE buyers will lose if market can't sustain
🔵 PE buyers will lose if market recovers above 76,863
🔵 The only winning move here = Do nothing and observe 🧘
"A 300-point gap up on expiry day after a crash is the market's most convincing lie. It looks bullish but often isn't. Wait for the market to prove itself — don't assume." 🎭
➡️ SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±150 Points of Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: 76,364 – 76,664 (Near 76,514 Close)
📖 Understanding The Flat Opening on Sensex Expiry Day:
A flat opening within 150 points of yesterday's close on Sensex Expiry Day is the most nuanced and educational scenario. Here is why this matters:
🔸 Flat open places Sensex right above or inside the orange pivot zone (76,050–76,399)
🔸 The market is opening in a zone of maximum uncertainty — right after a crash
🔸 On expiry day with flat open — option sellers have maximum advantage
🔸 The Sensex will try to establish direction in the first 30–45 minutes
🔸 Both 76,863 resistance (above) and 76,050–75,867 support (below) are within striking distance
The critical question with flat open on expiry:
Will the market use this expiry day to recover the crash losses or continue the carnage?
The orange zone 76,050–76,399 acts as the dividing line between these two stories.
📋 TRADE PLAN — FLAT OPENING:
⏳ Extended Wait — First 30-45 Minutes on Expiry Day:
Flat open on expiry after crash = Maximum price discovery period needed. Minimum 30 minutes wait before any entry. The opening range (first 30-min high/low) is your reference.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Flat Open, Recovery Above 76,399):
🔵 Setup: Sensex opens flat near 76,514. Shows early stability and buying interest. Price breaks and sustains convincingly above 76,399 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone) with good volume — indicating that bulls are defending the post-crash levels.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 76,420 (confirmed reclaim of orange zone upper boundary)
🔵 Target 1: 76,650
🔵 Target 2: 76,863 🎯 (Opening Resistance — Red Line — major expiry target)
🔵 Target 3: 77,237 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — only if exceptional momentum)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 76,200 (deep inside orange zone = bullish plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,500 CE or 76,700 CE on confirmed breakout above 76,420
⚡ On expiry — ATM and slightly OTM strikes only (within 200–300 points of market)
⚡ Deep OTM CE on expiry after crash = Premium goes to zero — avoid completely ❌
⚡ Book 50% at T1 without fail — expiry theta is ruthless
⚡ After T1, trail remaining position with every 15-min candle close as SL
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Flat Open, Continuation Breakdown):
🔵 Setup: Sensex opens flat but immediately shows weakness. Unable to hold 76,399. Bears take control early — lower highs forming on 15-min chart. Break below 76,050 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone) confirms continuation of yesterday's bearish momentum.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 76,000 (confirmed breakdown below entire orange zone)
🔵 Target 1: 75,867 (upper boundary of Last Intraday Support — Green Zone)
🔵 Target 2: 75,609 🎯 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support — Green Zone)
🔵 Target 3: 75,300 (intermediate bear extension)
🔵 Target 4: 75,000 🎯 (Psychological major support — extreme bearish case)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 76,200 (back inside orange zone = bearish plan fails)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 75,800 PE or 75,500 PE on confirmed breakdown below 76,000
⚡ On expiry day — PE options below current market can give 5-10x returns if market falls fast
⚡ But if market recovers — same PEs can go to near zero in minutes
⚡ This is why position size must be small — maximum 1 lot for this trade
⚡ Book 50% at T1, trail rest — do not be greedy on expiry PE trades
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Flat Open — Expiry Day):
Sensex oscillating between 76,050 – 76,399 after flat open = Full orange zone territory ⛔
🔵 This is the most dangerous zone on Sensex expiry day
🔵 Market is indecisive — could break either way without warning
🔵 Option premium decay (theta) is maximum in this range on expiry
🔵 Both CE and PE buyers are being slowly destroyed by time decay
🔵 The only sensible action = Watch. Learn. Wait for clear breakout. 📺
"On expiry day, the orange zone is not just a no-trade zone — it is a premium destruction zone. Every minute you hold options inside this range costs you money. Respect it completely." ⏳
💡 Flat Open Expiry Day Key Insight:
The 76,050 – 76,399 orange zone is the battleground where bulls and bears will clash most intensely on expiry. Above it = recovery story begins. Below it = crash continues. There is no middle ground on expiry day — the market will choose a side decisively. Your job is to wait for that choice and then join the winner. 🏆
📉 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (300+ Points Below Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Below 76,214 (i.e., 76,514 - 300)
📖 Understanding The Gap Down Setup on Sensex Expiry Day:
A Gap Down of 300+ points after yesterday's already massive ~1000-point crash session on Sensex Expiry Day would be an extreme and alarming bearish signal. This would be the second consecutive heavy fall in two sessions.
This scenario directly threatens:
🔸 The orange pivot zone 76,050–76,399 — may open right inside or below it
🔸 The 75,609–75,867 Last Intraday Support Zone (green zone) — could be tested immediately
🔸 Potentially triggering circuit breaker level concerns if fall is extreme
Why does a 300-point gap down on expiry day create special dynamics?
🔸 Short sellers from yesterday will be emboldened — adding more shorts
🔸 Long holders will panic — forced selling increases
🔸 Option writers who sold PEs yesterday will start buying them back — adding fuel to fall
🔸 VIX (India VIX) will spike further — increasing option premiums dramatically
🔸 Liquidity in certain strikes may dry up — wider bid-ask spreads
This is the highest risk scenario — maximum caution required. ⚠️
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP DOWN OPENING (300+ Points):
⏳ Maximum Patience — First 15-20 Minutes Absolute No Trade:
Gap down 300+ on expiry after crash = Opening will be extremely volatile, emotional and full of false signals. Let the opening candle complete fully. Look for:
✅ Selling climax followed by sharp recovery = Potential bounce
✅ Opening bounce that immediately fades = Continuation sell signal
✅ Flat consolidation after opening = Wait for breakout direction
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Bounce/Long Setup (Gap Down Holds Support):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps down 300+ points and opens near or inside the 75,609–75,867 Last Intraday Support Zone (green zone on chart). Strong buying emerges — institutional support visible. Bullish reversal candle forms — hammer, morning star, or strong bullish engulfing.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 75,900 (confirmed bounce above green support zone)
🔵 Target 1: 76,050 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 2: 76,399 🎯 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone — key recovery target)
🔵 Target 3: 76,514 (full gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 4: 76,863 🎯 (opening resistance — exceptional recovery scenario)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 75,560 (below green support zone = bounce failed)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,000 CE or 76,200 CE on confirmed bounce above 75,900
⚡ On expiry day bounce from strong support = Very high reward potential
⚡ But this is also very high risk — if support breaks, CE goes to zero fast
⚡ Maximum 1 lot only for this trade — no exceptions
⚡ Book 60% at T1 — on expiry, take profits quickly and decisively
⚡ Trail remaining 40% with tight SL — protect profits aggressively
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Gap Down Breaks All Support):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps down 300+ points and breaks below 75,609 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support Zone — green zone). No meaningful bounce attempt. Panic selling dominates. This is the most extreme bearish scenario — two consecutive crash days.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 75,550 (confirmed break of entire green support zone)
🔵 Target 1: 75,300
🔵 Target 2: 75,000 🎯 (Major psychological support — round number)
🔵 Target 3: 74,750 🎯 (Extended extreme bear target)
🔵 Target 4: 74,500 (if extreme panic — institutional support expected here)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 75,700 (back inside green support zone = short plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 75,000 PE or 74,500 PE on confirmed breakdown below 75,550
⚡ In extreme breakdown on expiry — PE options can give massive returns (10-20x)
⚡ But the risk is equally extreme — market can reverse 500+ points in minutes
⚡ Absolute maximum = 1 lot, smallest quantity possible
⚡ This trade requires nerves of steel and absolute discipline on SL
⚡ Never average down in this scenario under any circumstances
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Down — 300+ Points):
Market gaps down and consolidates between 75,550 – 75,900 = Extreme caution zone ⛔
🔵 Bounce and breakdown are both equally possible
🔵 Expiry day + second crash day + indecision = Maximum premium destruction zone
🔵 Market makers will exploit both CE and PE buyers mercilessly here
🔵 Absolutely no trading in this zone on expiry — the risk-reward is terrible
"When the market opens down 300+ points on expiry day after a crash — the most profitable trade for most retail traders is NO TRADE. Protect your capital. There will always be another day." 💚
💡 Gap Down Emergency Risk Warning for 09-Jul:
🚨 If Sensex gaps down 300+ points on expiry day — do not trade the first 20 minutes under any circumstances. This is when institutional algorithms are establishing positions, option writers are hedging, and retail panic is at maximum. The fake moves in the first 15-20 minutes can trap both bulls and bears. Patience here is literally worth thousands of rupees. 🕐
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS FOR OPTIONS TRADING
(Special Focus — Sensex Expiry Day After Crash Session)
(This section is critical — please read every point carefully before tomorrow's trading)
📌 Tip 1 — Expiry Day + Post Crash = Reduce Size by 50%:
🔵 Normal trading day → Trade 2 lots → Tomorrow trade 1 lot maximum
🔵 Expiry day after a crash session = Double the risk environment
🔵 High IV + Theta decay + Post-crash volatility = Perfect storm for option buyers
🔵 The only protection is significantly reduced position size 🛡️
📌 Tip 2 — Understand IV Crush on Expiry:
🔵 After yesterday's crash — India VIX will be elevated
🔵 High VIX = Expensive option premiums for both CE and PE
🔵 On expiry day — even if market moves in your direction, IV crush can reduce your profits
🔵 Solution: Buy options only on strong confirmed breakouts — not in anticipation
🔵 The move must be sharp and decisive for options to give good returns on expiry
📌 Tip 3 — The Expiry Day Premium Stop Loss Rule:
🔵 Entry CE/PE at ₹X → Exit compulsorily if premium falls 35-40% from entry
🔵 Example: Bought 76,500 CE at ₹150 → Mandatory exit at ₹90-95
🔵 On expiry — premiums can go from ₹200 to ₹0 in 30 minutes
🔵 There is NO recovery on expiry day — time is always working against you 📉
📌 Tip 4 — Strike Selection on Expiry Day — The Golden Rule:
🔵 Only trade ATM (At The Money) or 1 strike OTM on expiry
🔵 For Sensex at 76,514:
→ ✅ ATM = 76,500 CE/PE
→ ✅ 1 OTM = 76,800 CE or 76,200 PE
→ ❌ Deep OTM = 77,500 CE or 75,000 PE (avoid completely)
🔵 Deep OTM strikes on expiry = Lottery tickets, not trades 🎰
📌 Tip 5 — Time-Based Exit Rule for Expiry:
🔵 After 2:00 PM on expiry — all option buying becomes extremely risky
🔵 Theta decay accelerates massively in the last 90 minutes
🔵 Exit all long option positions by 2:00 PM regardless of profit/loss
🔵 The last 60 minutes of expiry belong to option sellers — not buyers ⏰
📌 Tip 6 — The 1-2-3 Trade Limit Rule for Expiry:
🔵 On expiry day — maximum 3 trades total for the entire session
🔵 After 3 trades (profitable or not) → Screen off. Day done.
🔵 Overtrading on expiry = The fastest way to turn a profitable morning into a losing day
🔵 Discipline in trade frequency is as important as discipline in SL 🎯
📌 Tip 7 — Pre-Market Checklist for 09-Jul (Expiry Day):
🔵 Check SGX Sensex / Gift Nifty at 8:00 AM IST (gap direction)
🔵 Check US Markets closing — Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq direction
🔵 Check Asia Pacific at 9:00 AM — Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi
🔵 Check India VIX level at market open (above 20 = extreme caution)
🔵 Check FII/DII data from 08-Jul on BSE/NSE website
🔵 Note the Gift Nifty premium/discount — proxy for Sensex gap
🔵 Any domestic or global news — RBI, budget, geopolitical events
🔵 This 15-minute homework sets your complete market bias before 9:15 AM 🧭
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
📊 08-Jul Recap in Brief:
🔴 Sensex crashed approximately ~1,000 points in a single session
🔴 Closed at 76,514.28 — near day's lows
🔴 Massive breakdown of all previous support structures
🔴 Sets up a highly volatile expiry day (09-Jul) with elevated risk
💡 Key learning: Strong trend days — follow the trend, don't fight it ✅
📊 09-Jul Complete Level Reference Table:
Zone Level Type Action
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance 77,237 Red Line Strong Sell/Short
🔴 Opening Resistance 76,863 Red Line Sell/Resistance
🟠 CMP Reference 76,514 Blue Previous Close
🟠 Orange Pivot Zone 76,050 – 76,399 Orange Zone No Trade / Decision
🟢 Last Intraday Support 75,609 – 75,867 Green Zone Buy/Long Zone
🟢 Extended Bear Target 75,000 – 74,750 Green Area Extreme Support
🎯 Overall Bias for 09-Jul-2026 (Sensex Expiry):
📌 Short-term bias: STRONGLY BEARISH (after ~1000-pt crash close)
📌 Recovery possible ONLY IF Sensex reclaims 76,863+ convincingly
📌 Bears in firm control as long as market stays below 76,399
📌 Dashed lines on chart show probable paths:
→ 🟢 Dashed green = Recovery path: Bounce → 76,863 → 77,237
→ 🔴 Dashed red = Continuation path: Break → 75,867 → 75,609 → 75,000
→ 🟠 Dashed orange = Sideways/chop path: Oscillate in orange zone all day
One of these three paths will play out — your job is to identify which one and act accordingly. 🎯
🌟 Final Key Takeaways for Sensex Expiry Day:
🔵 Orange zone 76,050–76,399 = Most critical zone — no trade inside it
🔵 Above orange zone = Look for long toward 76,863 and 77,237
🔵 Below orange zone = Look for short toward 75,609 and 75,000
🔵 Gap opening of 300+ changes dynamics — extra patience needed
🔵 Dashed lines = probable paths only — confirmation mandatory before entry
🔵 Green zones = Strong support — look for bounce confirmation only
🔵 Red lines = Strong resistance — look for rejection confirmation only
🔵 Expiry + post-crash = Half position size, double discipline 🛡️
🔵 Theta decay is your biggest enemy as an option buyer today
🔵 Exit all longs before 2:00 PM — no exceptions on expiry day ⏰
🔵 Capital preservation > Profit hunting — especially on expiry day 💚
"Expiry day after a crash is not the day to be a hero. It is the day to be a professional. Professionals wait, confirm, act with precision and protect their capital above everything else." 💪
"The best traders don't trade every opportunity — they trade only the right opportunities. Tomorrow, the right opportunity will show itself clearly. Your job is to wait for it patiently." 🧘
"Plan the trade. Trade the plan. Respect every level. Protect every rupee." 🔄
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor.
🔴 This post is purely for educational and informational purposes only.
🔴 All levels, scenarios, trade setups and analysis shared here are based entirely on personal technical chart reading and represent absolutely NO buy/sell recommendations of any kind whatsoever.
🔴 Sensex options, futures and equity trading involves substantial financial risk. You can lose your entire invested capital — this risk is multiplied significantly on expiry days and post-crash volatile sessions.
🔴 Past accuracy of any levels or analysis does NOT guarantee future performance under any circumstances.
🔴 The analysis presented is based purely on technical chart reading — fundamental factors, macroeconomic developments, global events and institutional activity can completely override technical levels at any time.
🔴 Gap openings of 300+ points can invalidate pre-planned levels — always re-assess levels in real-time at market open.
🔴 Always consult a SEBI Registered Financial/Investment Advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
🔴 The author holds absolutely no responsibility for any financial gains or losses arising directly or indirectly from the use of this educational content.
Trade Safe. Trade Smart. Trade with a Plan. Protect Your Capital First. Always. 🙏
📊 Chart: S&P BSE Sensex Index | Timeframe: 15-Min | Exchange: BSE | Source: TradingView
📅 Plan Date: 09-July-2026 | Sensex Weekly Expiry Day
🕗 Plan Published: Post Market Close 08-Jul-2026 | 22:52 IST
👍 If this analysis added value to your trading journey — Like & Follow for daily plans!
🔖 Save this post for quick reference during tomorrow's expiry session!
💬 Drop your view in comments — Bullish bounce or Bearish continuation for Sensex expiry?
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Short
NIFTY — Trading Plan | 09 July 2026📊
📅 15-Min Chart Analysis | Post Expiry Week | Educational Purpose Only
⚠️ Chart Colour Guide — Read Before Proceeding:
🟠 Orange Line/Zone = No Trade Zone / Sideways / Wait & Watch
🟢 Green Line/Zone = Bullish Bias / Long Setup
🔴 Red Line/Zone = Bearish Bias / Short Setup
- - - Dashed Lines = Probable price path — may or may not play out — always wait for confirmation
📜 PART 1 — YESTERDAY'S REVIEW (08-Jul-2026)
🔍 Actual Price Movement vs Our Plan
📌 What Our Plan Said for 08-Jul:
🔵 Main Pivot Zone: 24,348 – 24,372 (Orange Zone)
🔵 Bearish below 24,372 → Targets: 24,311 → 24,196 → 24,096
🔵 Recovery only above 24,439+
📊 What Actually Happened on 08-Jul-2026:
Looking at today's chart clearly tells the story 👇
🔴 Market opened and immediately showed massive selling pressure
🔴 A sharp gap down / breakdown occurred — price collapsed from 24,355 area
🔴 Market fell aggressively through ALL support levels:
→ ❌ 24,311 support — BROKEN
→ ❌ 24,196 Buyer's support — BROKEN
→ ❌ 24,096 extended target — BROKEN & EXCEEDED
🔴 Nifty closed at 23,897.20 — up just +13.80 pts after recovering from day's lows
🔴 Intraday low touched near 23,882 — a massive ~450+ point crash from previous close!
🔴 The bearish dashed path on yesterday's chart played out — and then some! 📉
✅ Plan Accuracy Review for 08-Jul:
🎯 Bearish bias → ✅ CORRECT — Market fell heavily
🎯 Below 24,372 = Bears win → ✅ PERFECTLY CALLED
🎯 24,311 breakdown → ✅ Broken convincingly
🎯 24,196 Buyer's support → ✅ Broken — no bounce sustained
🎯 24,096 Extended target → ✅ Hit and exceeded
🎯 Dashed bearish path → ✅ Played out aggressively
💡 Key Learning from 08-Jul:
🔵 When all supports break on high momentum — don't try to catch the falling knife
🔵 The orange no-trade zone saved traders from being trapped long
🔵 Bears were in complete control — respecting the breakdown gave clean short trades
🔵 Never fight the trend — when bearish plan activates, ride it with trailing SL
🔵 Today's close at 23,897 sets up a completely fresh battle zone for tomorrow
"The market fell 450 points in a single session — those who had a plan survived. Those who didn't — paid the price." 📖
🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR 09-JUL-2026
text
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance → 24,111
🔴 Opening Resistance → 23,992
🟠 CMP / Reference → 23,897.20
🟠 Opening Support/Resistance → 23,801 – 23,836 ← MAIN PIVOT ZONE ⚡
🟢 Last Intraday Support → 23,655 – 23,723 ← KEY SUPPORT ZONE
🟢 Extended Bear Target → 23,381 ← MAJOR SUPPORT (Green Line)
💡 09-Jul-2026 Market Context:
🔵 Yesterday saw a massive 450+ point single-day collapse
🔵 Market closed at 23,897 — deep in bearish territory
🔵 The orange pivot zone 23,801–23,836 is now the most critical battleground
🔵 Any recovery attempt will face strong resistance at 23,992 and 24,111
🔵 Below 23,801 → Fresh selling wave possible toward 23,655–23,723
🔵 Global cues, FII activity and SGX Nifty will be crucial tomorrow morning
🔵 Volatility will remain elevated — position sizing is critical!
🚀 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (100+ Points Above Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Above 23,997 (i.e., 23,897 + 100)
📖 Understanding The Gap Up Setup:
A Gap Up of 100+ points after yesterday's massive 450-point crash would open the market right near or above the 23,992 Opening Resistance zone (red line on chart). This kind of recovery gap after a panic selloff is called a Dead Cat Bounce Gap or Short Covering Gap.
Why is this important to understand? 🧠
🔸 After extreme single-day falls, markets often gap up next morning due to:
→ Overnight short covering by bears
→ Positive global markets recovery
→ Bargain hunting by institutions
→ SGX Nifty recovery overnight
🔸 However — gap ups after panic falls are often unreliable and trap-prone
🔸 The real question is: Can bulls sustain the gap or will sellers dump into the recovery?
🔸 Key resistance levels 23,992 and 24,111 will be the ultimate test for bulls
This is a critical scenario — patience is non-negotiable here. ⏳
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP UP OPENING:
⏳ First 15 Minutes Rule:
After a major crash day, never trade the opening candle. Let at least the first 15-min candle complete. Observe volume and direction carefully.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Gap Up Sustains Above 23,992):
🔵 Setup: Market gaps up to 23,992+ zone and sustains above it with a strong 15-min candle close. This indicates genuine buying interest and possible short-term trend reversal.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 24,000 (psychological + technical level)
🔵 Target 1: 24,060
🔵 Target 2: 24,111 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — Red Line on Chart)
🔵 Target 3: 24,180 (if momentum is very strong — extended recovery)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 23,960 (back below opening resistance = bull trap signal)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 24,000 CE or 24,100 CE on confirmed sustain above 23,992
⚡ After a crash day, CE premiums will be elevated due to high IV — buy smaller quantity
⚡ Book 50% at T1 — don't be greedy after a recovery bounce
⚡ Use next week expiry options — not current week (more time value)
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Gap Up Fails / Selling Into Recovery):
🔵 Setup: Market gaps up near 23,992 but fails to sustain. Sellers aggressively dump into the recovery — classic "sell the bounce" behaviour after a crash. Bearish engulfing or shooting star on 15-min confirms the rejection.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 23,950 (confirmed fade from opening resistance)
🔵 Target 1: 23,897 (previous close — gap fill)
🔵 Target 2: 23,836 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 3: 23,801 🎯 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 4: 23,723 – 23,655 🎯 (Last Intraday Support Zone — green zone)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 23,992 (back above opening resistance = short plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 23,900 PE or 23,800 PE on confirmed rejection and fade
⚡ "Sell the bounce" trades after crash days are high-probability — but require patience
⚡ Don't short blindly into a gap up — wait for confirmed rejection candle first
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Up Scenario):
Market opens gap up and oscillates between 23,960 – 23,992 = Pure confusion zone ⛔
🔵 Neither bulls nor bears have conviction
🔵 Both CE and PE will bleed in this choppy range
🔵 Best action = Hands in pocket. Watch. Wait.
"After a 450-point crash, a gap up recovery seems exciting — but the first move is often the wrong move. Let the market prove its intent before you commit capital." 🎯
➡️ SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±50 Points of Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: 23,847 – 23,947 (Near 23,897 Close)
📖 Understanding The Flat Opening Setup:
A flat opening near yesterday's close of 23,897 is actually the most dangerous scenario for the day after a massive crash. Here's why:
🔸 Market opens flat = uncertainty and indecision after a panic day
🔸 The opening places market just above the orange pivot zone (23,801–23,836)
🔸 Bulls will try to recover — bears will try to continue the selloff
🔸 The orange zone below is like a trapdoor — if it breaks, another big leg down begins
🔸 The resistance above at 23,992 and 24,111 are heavy ceilings for bulls
The orange pivot zone 23,801–23,836 is your most critical level in this scenario.
Everything depends on whether this zone holds or breaks.
📋 TRADE PLAN — FLAT OPENING:
⏳ Extended Wait — First 30 Minutes:
Flat open after a crash = Maximum indecision. Give the market at least 30 minutes to establish direction. The opening range (first 30-min high-low) becomes your trading reference.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Flat Open, Recovery Attempt):
🔵 Setup: Market opens flat near 23,897. Shows early stability and starts recovering. Price breaks and sustains above 23,950 with good volume — indicating short covering and fresh buying.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 23,960 (confirmed recovery above opening range)
🔵 Target 1: 23,992 (Opening Resistance — Red Line)
🔵 Target 2: 24,060
🔵 Target 3: 24,111 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — major target for bulls)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 23,836 (break of orange pivot zone upper boundary = plan fails)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 23,950 CE or 24,000 CE on confirmed breakout above 23,960
⚡ After crash days, IV remains high — premiums are expensive. Adjust lot size accordingly.
⚡ Trail SL to cost once T1 is achieved — protect capital first, profit second.
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Flat Open, Continuation of Selling):
🔵 Setup: Market opens flat but immediately shows weakness. Unable to sustain above 23,897. Early signs of fresh selling — lower highs forming. Break below 23,801 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone) confirms continuation of yesterday's downtrend.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 23,800 (confirmed breakdown below orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 1: 23,723 (upper boundary of Last Intraday Support — green zone)
🔵 Target 2: 23,655 🎯 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support — green zone)
🔵 Target 3: 23,500 (intermediate level)
🔵 Target 4: 23,381 🎯 (Extended Bear Target — Major Green Support Line)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 23,850 (back inside orange zone = bearish plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 23,800 PE or 23,700 PE on confirmed breakdown below 23,800
⚡ This is a trend continuation trade — if it activates, it can give 200-300 point move
⚡ Book 40% at T1, 40% at T2, trail remaining 20% for T3/T4 with candle SL
⚡ Don't average if trade goes against you — cut and wait for re-entry
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Flat Open):
Market oscillating between 23,801 – 23,960 after flat open = Complete orange zone ⛔
🔵 This is maximum confusion territory
🔵 After a crash day, this range is filled with:
→ Trapped longs trying to exit
→ Bears booking profits
→ Fresh buyers testing the water
→ All creating choppy, directionless price action
🔵 Both CE and PE buyers will lose in this chop
✅ Only strategy viable here = Wait and watch
"The day after a crash is not the day to be a hero. It is the day to be a student — observe, analyze, then act with precision." 🧘
💡 Flat Open Key Insight for 09-Jul:
The 23,801 – 23,836 orange zone is the gatekeeper between recovery and further collapse. Bulls must defend this zone aggressively. If they fail — the road to 23,381 opens up. This is a make-or-break level for tomorrow. 🔑
📉 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ Points Below Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Below 23,797 (i.e., 23,897 - 100)
📖 Understanding The Gap Down Setup:
A Gap Down of 100+ points after yesterday's already massive crash would be an extreme bearish signal. This would open the market directly inside or below the orange pivot zone of 23,801–23,836 — and potentially threaten the 23,655–23,723 Last Intraday Support Zone immediately.
This scenario would mean:
🔸 Two consecutive heavy bearish sessions — rare but powerful signal
🔸 Likely driven by extremely negative global overnight cues
🔸 Possible circuit breaker territory if selling is extreme
🔸 Panic selling will be maximum — emotional decisions will destroy accounts
Two key questions in this scenario:
1️⃣ Does the market find support at 23,655–23,723? (Green zone — Last Intraday Support)
2️⃣ Or does it collapse all the way to 23,381? (Major Green Support — Extended Target)
Rule #1 in gap down after crash = DO NOT PANIC SELL THE LOWS 🚫
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP DOWN OPENING:
⏳ Maximum Patience Required:
After gap down following a crash day — wait for minimum 15-20 minutes. Let the opening panic exhaust itself. Look for:
✅ Selling climax (massive red candle followed by sharp recovery) = Bounce signal
✅ Sustained lower highs on recovery attempts = Continuation signal
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Bounce/Long Setup (Gap Down Support Hold):
🔵 Setup: Market gaps down but finds strong support at 23,655–23,723 (Last Intraday Support — green zone on chart). Bullish reversal candle forms — hammer, doji, or engulfing. Institutional buying visible.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 23,730 (confirmed bounce above support zone)
🔵 Target 1: 23,836 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 2: 23,897 (previous close — full gap fill)
🔵 Target 3: 23,992 🎯 (Opening resistance — strong recovery target)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 23,640 (below Last Intraday Support zone = no bounce)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 23,750 CE or 23,800 CE on confirmed bounce above 23,730
⚡ Bounce trades from major support zones = High reward potential
⚡ But in two consecutive crash scenarios — keep lot size at minimum (1 lot only)
⚡ Book 50% profit at T1 without fail — don't let a winning bounce trade turn into a loser
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup / Continuation (Gap Down, Support Breaks):
🔵 Setup: Market gaps down and breaks below 23,655 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support zone). No meaningful bounce. Panic selling continues. This is the most extreme bearish scenario.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 23,640 (confirmed breakdown of all support)
🔵 Target 1: 23,500
🔵 Target 2: 23,381 🎯 (Extended Bear Target — Major Green Support Line on Chart)
🔵 Target 3: 23,250 (if 23,381 also breaks — extreme panic scenario)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 23,730 (back inside support zone = short plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 23,600 PE or 23,400 PE on confirmed breakdown below 23,640
⚡ In extreme breakdown scenarios — DO NOT buy deep OTM puts in panic
⚡ Near-the-money strikes only — better delta and response
⚡ Keep position size very small — volatility can reverse sharply at any point
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Down Scenario):
Market gaps down and oscillates between 23,640 – 23,730 = Confusion zone ⛔
🔵 Support is being tested but not yet broken
🔵 Both bounce and breakdown are possible
🔵 This is the most dangerous zone to be in — maximum whipsaw risk
🔵 Best action = Do absolutely nothing. Watch only.
"Two consecutive crash days demand maximum respect and minimum action. The market is volatile, emotional and unpredictable. Your discipline in NOT trading is your biggest edge here." 💪
💡 Gap Down Emergency Tip for 09-Jul:
If market gaps down heavily and 23,381 is approached directly — this is a MAJOR long-term support on higher timeframes. Extreme panic selling into this zone historically provides excellent bounce opportunities — but only for experienced traders with defined risk. Beginners should simply watch and learn. 📚
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS FOR OPTIONS TRADING
(After a 450-Point Crash Day — These Tips Are More Important Than Ever)
📌 Tip 1 — Reduce Position Size After Volatile Days:
🔵 Yesterday's 450-point crash means IV (Implied Volatility) is elevated today
🔵 High IV = Expensive option premiums = Higher risk for buyers
🔵 Solution: Trade half your normal lot size until market stabilizes
🔵 This protects your capital while still allowing participation
📌 Tip 2 — The Bounce Trade Golden Rule:
🔵 After a massive crash, bounces look tempting
🔵 But "dead cat bounces" are common — they go up briefly then crash again
🔵 Rule: Take only 50% of your normal profit target on bounce trades after crash days
🔵 Don't expect a V-shape recovery immediately — it rarely happens
📌 Tip 3 — Never Average Down on Options:
🔵 If your CE is losing after a crash — DO NOT BUY MORE
🔵 Options lose value exponentially as they go OTM
🔵 Averaging options = Multiplying your losses, not reducing them
🔵 Cut, reassess, re-enter fresh if setup confirms
📌 Tip 4 — The 30-40% Premium Stop Loss Rule:
🔵 Entry CE at ₹100 → Exit compulsorily at ₹65 (35% SL)
🔵 Entry PE at ₹80 → Exit compulsorily at ₹52 (35% SL)
🔵 Set this as a mental rule before every entry — not after loss starts
🔵 This single rule saves most retail traders from account blow-ups ✅
📌 Tip 5 — High Volatility = Wider Stops, Smaller Size:
🔵 After a crash, market swings are wider than normal
🔵 Normal 20-point SL may not work — market can swing 50-80 points easily
🔵 Solution: Wider SL + Proportionally smaller position size = Same risk
🔵 Example: Normal trade = 2 lots, 25-pt SL → Post-crash = 1 lot, 50-pt SL
📌 Tip 6 — Avoid Overtrading on High Volatility Days:
🔵 High volatility = More signals = More temptation to trade
🔵 But more trades ≠ More profits
🔵 After a crash day — limit yourself to maximum 2 trades for the entire day
🔵 Quality over quantity. Always. 🎯
📌 Tip 7 — Pre-Market Checklist for 09-Jul:
🔵 Check Gift Nifty / SGX Nifty at 8:00 AM — gap indicator
🔵 Check US Markets (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) — did they recover or fall further?
🔵 Check Asia Markets at 9:00 AM (Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi)
🔵 Check FII/DII data from 08-Jul (available on NSE website)
🔵 Check any major news/events — budget, RBI, global macro
🔵 This 15-minute homework = Your market bias compass 🧭
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
📊 08-Jul Recap in Brief:
🔴 Massive 450+ point single session crash
🔴 All planned support levels broken
🔴 Bearish dashed path played out completely
🔴 Closed at 23,897 — setting up a fresh battle zone
💡 Key learning: When trend is strong, don't fight it — ride it with SL ✅
📊 09-Jul Complete Level Reference Table:
Zone Level Type Action
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance 24,111 Red Line Strong Sell/Short Zone
🔴 Opening Resistance 23,992 Red Line Sell/Resistance Zone
🟠 CMP Reference 23,897 Blue Current Price
🟠 Main Pivot Zone 23,801 – 23,836 Orange Decision Zone — No Trade
🟢 Last Intraday Support 23,655 – 23,723 Green Zone Buy/Long Zone
🟢 Extended Bear Target 23,381 Green Line Major Support / Bear Target
🎯 Overall Bias for 09-Jul-2026:
📌 Short-term bias: STRONGLY BEARISH (after 450-pt crash close)
📌 Recovery possible ONLY IF market reclaims 23,992+ convincingly
📌 Bears firmly in control below 23,836
📌 Dashed lines on chart show two probable paths:
→ 🟢 Recovery dashed path: Bounce → 23,992 → 24,111
→ 🔴 Continuation dashed path: Break → 23,723 → 23,655 → 23,381
Key message: Respect the levels. Respect the trend. Don't be a hero. 🎯
🌟 Final Takeaways:
🔵 Orange zone 23,801–23,836 = Most critical zone tomorrow
🔵 Above orange zone + sustain = Recovery trade toward 23,992–24,111
🔵 Below orange zone + sustain = Short trade toward 23,655–23,381
🔵 Dashed lines = Probable paths only — never trade without confirmation
🔵 Green lines = Support zones — look for bounce confirmation here
🔵 Red lines = Resistance zones — look for rejection confirmation here
🔵 After a crash day — smaller size, wider stops, fewer trades 🛡️
🔵 Capital preservation is the #1 priority after a volatile session
"The market humbles the overconfident and rewards the disciplined. After a storm, the best traders don't rush back in — they wait for the dust to settle, identify the new levels, and then act with precision." 💚
"Yesterday's crash is today's lesson. Today's plan is tomorrow's edge." 🔄
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor.
🔴 This post is purely for educational and informational purposes only.
🔴 All levels, scenarios, trade setups and analysis shared here are based on personal technical chart reading and represent NO buy/sell recommendations of any kind.
🔴 Options and futures trading involves substantial financial risk. You can lose your entire invested capital — especially in high volatility environments like post-crash sessions.
🔴 Past accuracy of levels and plans does NOT guarantee future performance.
🔴 The market conditions described are based on chart reading only — fundamental, macroeconomic and global factors may alter price behaviour significantly.
🔴 Always consult a SEBI Registered Financial Advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
🔴 The author holds absolutely no responsibility for any financial gains or losses arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
Trade Safe. Trade Smart. Protect Your Capital First. Always. 🙏
📊 Chart: Nifty 50 Index | Timeframe: 15-Min | Exchange: NSE | Source: TradingView
📅 Plan Date: 09-July-2026 | Regular Trading Session
🕗 Plan Published: Post Market Close 08-Jul-2026 | 22:32 IST
👍 If this analysis added value — Like & Follow for daily plans!
🔖 Save this post for reference during tomorrow's market hours!
💬 Drop your view below — Bullish bounce or Bearish continuation for 09-Jul?
#Nifty #Nifty50 #NiftyAnalysis #TradingPlan #StockMarketIndia #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsTrading #NiftyOptions #DayTrading #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #LearnTrading #TradingEducation #RiskManagement #IndianStockMarket #MarketAnalysis #TradeSetup #TradeSmart #NiftyLevels #PostCrash #MarketCrash #IndexTrading #TradingCommunity #FinanceIndia #StockMarket #TradingLife #MarketOutlook #NiftyPrediction #BearMarket 
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XAUUSD — Waiting Sell From EMA Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the market is still moving with short-term bearish pressure, so any recovery should be treated as a pullback unless price can reclaim the upper resistance zone.
The better plan is to wait for price to return to a clear sell value zone instead of chasing the move after a strong drop.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,053 after reacting strongly from the 0.382 Fibonacci area near 4,041. This reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend the short-term support, but the overall structure is still not bullish yet.
Price remains inside a descending channel, and the EMA structure is still acting as dynamic resistance above the current price. The recent bounce looks more like a corrective recovery inside a bearish trend rather than a full reversal.
The main sell zone is around 4,094 - 4,101. This area aligns with the previous support turned resistance, Fibonacci reaction zone, descending trendline pressure, and EMA value area. If price recovers into this zone and rejects, sellers may continue to push gold lower.
The downside target remains around 4,003 first, followed by the psychological Fibonacci target zone near 3,990 - 3,988.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,053
Fibonacci reaction support: 4,041
Main sell zone: 4,094 - 4,101
Upper resistance: 4,135
Short-term downside level: 4,003
Main Fibonacci target: 3,990 - 3,988
Invalidation area: above 4,135
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,094 - 4,101
Stop Loss: 4,135
Take Profit 1: 4,041
Take Profit 2: 4,003
Take Profit 3: 3,990 - 3,988
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,094 - 4,101 sell zone. This is the key value area because it combines Fibonacci structure, EMA resistance, and the descending channel reaction zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this area, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below 4,101.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 4,041, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,003, followed by the Fibonacci psychological target around 3,990 - 3,988.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: above 4,135 after breakout confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,101
Take Profit 1: 4,160
Take Profit 2: 4,180
Take Profit 3: 4,200
Buy Condition
This is not the main view. A buy setup should only be considered if gold breaks above 4,135 and holds above the descending structure with strong confirmation.
If price cannot break and hold above 4,135, the bearish setup remains the priority.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,094 - 4,101.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell aggressively at the low without a pullback.
A break below 4,041 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,135, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the EMA resistance structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,094 - 4,101, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,041, 4,003, and 3,990 - 3,988.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone first?
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XAUUSD — FVG Fill Before Bullish Continuation
Gold is trading around $4,089 after pulling back from the short-term FVG sell zone at $4,132–$4,137. The current move is now filling the lower FVG area, which is the main liquidity zone where buyers may start defending the bullish structure again.
From an SMC perspective, the larger short-term structure has already shifted bullish after the previous CHOCH and BOS from the lower base. The current decline does not look like a full bearish reversal yet. It looks more like price is filling the imbalance and testing liquidity before attempting another move with the main recovery trend.
The key area to watch is the FVG buy zone around $4,079–$4,100. Price has already moved into this zone, so the next reaction is important. If gold holds this area and forms bullish rejection, the market may rotate higher again toward $4,132–$4,137 first, then $4,160 and the weekly high around $4,203.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds inside the FVG buy zone around $4,079–$4,100 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,079–$4,100
SL: below $4,057
TP1: $4,132–$4,137
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,203
TP4: $4,220
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold sweeps the sell-side liquidity near $4,057 and quickly reclaims back above the FVG zone, this can create a stronger liquidity-trap buy setup.
Entry: after reclaim above $4,079–$4,100
SL: below the sweep low
TP1: $4,132–$4,137
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,203
Buy setup 3
Condition:
If gold reacts from the current FVG zone and breaks back above $4,137, bullish continuation remains valid after a breakout retest.
Entry: above $4,137 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,100
TP1: $4,160
TP2: $4,203
TP3: $4,220
Sell scalping setup
Condition:
Selling is not the main priority. A sell scalp is only valid if gold retests the $4,132–$4,137 FVG sell zone and shows clear bearish rejection before buyers confirm continuation.
Entry: $4,132–$4,137 after rejection
SL: above $4,160
TP1: $4,100
TP2: $4,079
TP3: $4,057
Key levels
Current price area: $4,089
Main FVG buy zone: $4,079–$4,100
Sell-side liquidity: $4,057
FVG sell zone: $4,132–$4,137
Short-term resistance: $4,160
Weekly high liquidity: $4,203
Next bullish liquidity area: $4,220
Bullish continuation confirmation: clean break above $4,137
Stronger bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,160
Bullish invalidation: clean 2H close below $4,057
My current view is that gold is filling FVG liquidity before attempting another bullish continuation. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid selling low inside the FVG area and wait for confirmation around $4,079–$4,100. If buyers defend this zone, gold can recover toward $4,132, $4,160 and potentially the weekly high around $4,203.
No confirmation, no trade.
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XAUUSD: Wave 5 bearish may continue from sell zone.Gold is still trading inside a corrective bearish structure after failing to hold the earlier recovery momentum. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that price may still be developing wave 5 lower, with the sell zone around 4,125–4,135 acting as the key resistance area.
The key idea is simple: gold is not showing a clean bullish continuation yet. As long as price stays below the sell zone, the wave 5 downside scenario remains active.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold moving inside a descending channel after the previous strong upside move completed near the upper range. Price has already broken below the short-term rising trendline, then retested the lower resistance area without creating a strong bullish recovery.
The current reaction around 4,125 is important because price is sitting directly under the sell zone wave 5. If sellers continue to defend this area, gold may rotate lower again towards the support around 4,092 first.
Below that, the larger zone around 4,055–4,065 remains the main area where the Elliott 5-wave structure may complete.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,125–4,135: sell zone wave 5 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,092: nearest support and first downside checkpoint
◌ 4,055–4,065: Elliott wave 5 completion zone
◌ 4,140: area where the sell setup begins to weaken
◌ Above 4,150: area where the bearish wave count needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming the final part of a bearish 5-wave decline inside the short-term channel.
Wave 1 started after price lost momentum from the upper range.
Wave 2 created a corrective rebound but failed to reclaim resistance.
Wave 3 pushed lower towards the 4,090 area.
Wave 4 is now reacting back into the sell zone.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards 4,055–4,065.
This is why Kelly would not chase buying while price remains below resistance. The current bounce still looks corrective unless buyers reclaim the sell zone with strength.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,125–4,135 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,125–4,135 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,150 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,092
Take profit 2: 4,065
Take profit 3: 4,055 if wave 5 expands fully
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,150 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may need a new short-term structure before the next direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this remains a sell-the-retest structure. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott count still allows one more downside leg before the full correction ends.
The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection around resistance, not sell blindly at support.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If 4,125–4,135 holds, wave 5 may continue towards the lower completion zone.
Share your view below. Short 
Gold uptrend holds; buy retest is priority.BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS THE UPTREND, BUY RETEST REMAINS PRIORITY
Gold is still trading inside a bullish recovery structure after holding above the main lower value base. Price has already built a strong upside leg from the early July low, and the current pullback looks more like a retest than a confirmed bearish reversal.
The market is not at the best place to chase. The cleaner plan is to wait for gold to return into the value support area, then watch if buyers defend the structure again.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold is respecting the rising trendline and holding above the key Volume Profile support zones.
The main area I am watching is the Buy zone VAH around 4,132. This is the nearest value support below current price and the cleanest area to look for a buy reaction.
As long as price holds above this zone and the rising trendline remains intact, the bullish recovery structure stays valid.
Above current price, the next upside target is the 4,239 zone. This is where price may meet stronger resistance after the next bullish push.
Important zones
Buy zone VAH: 4,132
Main buy-retest area and short-term value support.
Buy swing POC: 4,063
Deeper support if price pulls back harder.
Target zone: 4,239
Main upside target if buyers defend the structure.
Rising trendline:
Key structure support for the current bullish recovery.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Buy zone VAH 4,132
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,132 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Buy zone VAH or below the local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,180
TP2: 4,200
TP3: 4,239
This setup follows the current bullish recovery structure and uses the nearest Volume Profile support as the main buy area.
Final view
Gold remains bullish while price holds above 4,132 and respects the rising trendline.
The priority is not to chase the current price. I prefer waiting for a clean retest into the Buy zone VAH, then watching for buyer reaction.
If 4,132 holds, gold can continue towards 4,239. If this zone fails, price may rotate deeper towards the Buy swing POC around 4,063.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone. Long 
