BTCUSDT: Bullish Weakens, Neckline BarrierBTCUSDT is trading around 78,900 USDT, continuing to struggle right at the 78,800–79,300 neckline zone. On the H1 timeframe, the Head & Shoulders structure remains intact, as the price has failed to firmly sustain itself above this resistance area.
If BTC retests the 79K level but faces rejection, I lean towards a return of selling pressure, targeting 77,900 initially, followed by the 76,500 USDT zone.
This setup should be viewed as a technical correction rather than a major reversal signal. The bearish scenario would lose validity if BTC breaks out and holds firmly above 79,700–80,000.
Wave Analysis
Nasdaq wave III is startingThe momentum is back to zero and an expanded flat maybe complete for the Nasdaq Composite index. The next leg up could take it to 28365 based on our Fibonacci Projections. Tech stocks have seen a good pullback and are ready to move again is what this means. Time to let it run, and run with it. It may not matter that you are heading into a seasonal corrective month because the correction already happened.
PNGJL LONG📊 Elliott Wave Analysis
The Elliott Wave structure indicates that the stock has completed waves (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv), shown as blue numbers on the hourly chart.
Currently, Wave (v) appears to be underway.
It may extend to a maximum length of 1.618% of the move from the start of Wave (i) to the end of Wave (i), measured from Wave (iv)’s lowest point.
The projected targets for Wave (v) are:
687 (1.0 extension)
739.55 (1.618 extension)
Wave levels are illustrated on the chart.
🔄 Possible Reversal
Price action is making lower lows.
RSI is simultaneously making higher highs.
This divergence may indicate a potential reversal or weakening of the current trend.
🚨 Invalidation Level
Wave (iv) has been identified as the invalidation level at 594.
Price cannot re-enter the territory of Wave (i).
If the price falls below 594, the Elliott Wave count will be invalidated, suggesting that the expected pattern is not unfolding as anticipated.
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This research is conducted purely for academic purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or making any investment decisions. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses arising from the use of this analysis.
The Psychology Behind Failed BreakoutsA breakout looks simple on a chart.
Price reaches a well-known resistance level, breaks above it, and traders immediately start thinking, “This is the move I was waiting for.” Buyers enter, short sellers rush to exit, and the chart suddenly looks bullish.
But sometimes the breakout lasts only a few candles.
Price moves back below the level, traps the breakout buyers, and then starts falling sharply.
This is a failed breakout—and understanding why it happens can be more valuable than simply learning how to trade breakouts.
What Really Happens During a Failed Breakout?
A failed breakout is not always a random market move.
It is often the result of expectations, liquidity, and trader psychology coming together at the same price level.
Think about a resistance zone that everyone is watching.
Some traders are waiting to buy the breakout.
Others are already long and waiting for price to continue higher.
Short sellers have their stop-loss orders above the resistance.
When price finally breaks above the level, all of these orders can become fuel for a temporary move.
That is where the trap can begin.
The Psychology of the Breakout Trader
Most traders don't enter a breakout because they have complete information.
They enter because they see confirmation.
The resistance has broken.
The candle looks strong.
Volume may increase.
Other traders are also buying.
Confidence rises quickly.
The problem is that a breakout candle confirms that price has moved through a level—it does not guarantee that price will stay there.
When traders buy purely because they don't want to miss the move, they become vulnerable to a false breakout.
This is where FOMO becomes dangerous.
The trader isn't necessarily buying because the setup is high quality.
They are buying because they are afraid the market will move without them.
Why Does Price Sometimes Break a Level and Reverse?
One important reason is liquidity.
Above obvious resistance, there can be a large concentration of stop-loss orders from short sellers and breakout buy orders from traders waiting for confirmation.
When price moves above the level, those orders can be triggered.
This can create a sudden burst of buying.
But if there isn't enough genuine demand to keep pushing price higher, the move can quickly lose momentum.
Price falls back below the resistance.
Now the psychology changes completely.
The breakout buyers who entered late are trapped.
Some begin closing their positions.
Others place tight stop-losses.
Selling pressure increases.
What initially looked like a bullish breakout can turn into a sharp bearish move.
The Most Important Psychological Shift
The interesting part of a failed breakout is not the breakout itself.
It is what happens after traders realize they were wrong.
Before the breakout:
“Resistance is strong.”
During the breakout:
“The trend is changing.”
After the failure:
“I need to get out.”
That final shift can create powerful momentum in the opposite direction.
This is why failed breakouts can sometimes move faster than normal pullbacks.
A trader who is trapped doesn't have unlimited patience.
They have a decision to make.
And when many traders make that decision at the same time, the market can move aggressively.
The Breakout Retest Tells a Story
One of the most useful clues is what price does after breaking the level.
A healthy breakout often shows acceptance above the previous resistance.
Price may continue higher or retest the broken level and find buyers.
A failed breakout often behaves differently.
Price breaks above resistance, struggles to continue, and then falls back below the level.
If the market cannot hold the breakout area, that is important information.
The market is essentially saying:
“Buyers were unable to maintain control here.”
That doesn't automatically mean you should short the market.
But it tells you to stop assuming that the breakout is valid.
Why Strong Candles Can Be Misleading
Many traders see a large bullish candle and immediately assume strong buying.
But candle size alone doesn't tell you the full story.
A large candle can appear because of stop-loss activation, short covering, temporary liquidity imbalance, or aggressive late entries.
The real question is:
What happens after the strong candle?
If price continues to hold above the breakout level, the move may be gaining acceptance.
If price quickly returns below the level, the strong candle may have been the final push before the reversal.
This is why context matters more than one candle.
The Best Traders Don't Chase Confirmation
There is a big difference between confirmation and chasing.
Confirmation means waiting for evidence that the market is actually accepting the new price area.
Chasing means entering simply because price has already moved.
A disciplined trader might ask:
Did price actually close beyond the important level?
Is there follow-through?
Does the retest hold?
Is volume supporting the move?
Is the broader market structure aligned?
Where would the breakout become invalid?
These questions help remove emotion from the decision.
Failed Breakouts Can Become Powerful Signals
A failed breakout doesn't automatically mean the opposite trade is correct.
But when a breakout fails at an important level and price quickly returns inside the previous range, the information becomes valuable.
The market attempted to move in one direction.
Traders committed capital to that move.
And then the market rejected it.
That rejection can reveal something about the balance between buyers and sellers.
In simple terms:
A successful breakout shows acceptance.
A failed breakout shows rejection.
The Bigger Lesson
Markets don't trap traders because they are trying to punish them.
They trap traders because crowded expectations create predictable liquidity.
When too many traders expect the same thing at the same level, the market can produce a move that forces those traders to react.
That is why learning to read trader psychology can be more powerful than memorizing breakout patterns.
Instead of asking:
“Did price break resistance?”
Try asking:
“Did the market accept the breakout?”
That small change in thinking can completely change the way you read price action.
A breakout is not confirmed simply because price crosses a line.
The real confirmation comes from what price does after crossing it.
And sometimes, the failed breakout tells you more about the market than the successful one ever could.
BTC/USD - Next Push Higher PeakHi traders!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is still holding a constructive H1 structure after the strong expansion from the mid-60Ks. Price is consolidating above the Ichimoku Cloud, while the 76,350–78,210 area has become the next important demand zone.
That is where I want to see buyers prove themselves again.
If BTC retests this area, absorbs the selling pressure and holds above the cloud, I still favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 83,000
Macro is supportive today. US Treasury yields have eased and oil prices have fallen on renewed hopes around the Strait of Hormuz, helping overall risk sentiment. Bitcoin also remains one of the strongest-performing major assets this month.
I wouldn’t chase the current price. The cleaner trade is the retest, not the excitement after the move.
A sustained H1 break below 76,350 would weaken the continuation setup.
AURICVERSE View: BTC doesn’t need another vertical candle right now. It needs to show that 77K–78.2K can actually become a base. If buyers defend it, 83K stays on my radar.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below.
XAUUSD – Bearish Wave Toward 4,500XAUUSD – Bearish Wave Toward 4,500
Gold is showing a short-term bearish Elliott Wave structure after failing to extend higher from the recent top. From Kelly’s view, price is now reacting under the wave 3 sell zone, which keeps the downside scenario active. If sellers stay in control, gold could continue lower, first into the liquidity buy zone, then deeper toward the end wave 5 area.
⟡ Market Structure
The current structure suggests gold may be building a fresh downside leg after the rejection near the upper resistance area. Price is now trading around 4,631, while the chart still shows pressure below the 4,638–4,646 sell zone.
As long as gold remains below this zone, the bearish wave sequence stays valid. The first area to watch on the downside is the dotted support near 4,595. If that level gives way, price may continue toward the 4,565–4,578 liquidity zone, where a short corrective bounce could appear before the next leg down.
If the bearish structure continues cleanly, the final downside target remains the 4,498–4,505 end wave 5 zone.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price: 4,631
◌ Sell zone wave 3: 4,638–4,646
◌ Intermediate support: 4,595
◌ Buy zone liquidity: 4,565–4,578
◌ End wave 5 target: 4,498–4,505
⌁ Trading Scenario
Primary bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,638–4,646
Stop Loss: Above 4,655
Take Profit 1: 4,595
Take Profit 2: 4,565–4,578
Take Profit 3: 4,498–4,505
This setup follows the idea that gold is still moving inside a bearish wave sequence. A break below 4,595 would strengthen the move toward the lower liquidity area, and a deeper selloff could complete wave 5 near 4,500.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold reclaims and holds above 4,646–4,655, because that would suggest the current wave-down structure is failing and buyers are regaining control.
▸ Final View
For now, Kelly’s preferred view stays bearish. Gold is still trading under the wave 3 sell zone, so the path of least resistance remains lower unless buyers can reclaim resistance. The cleaner plan is to watch for rejection around the sell zone, then follow the move toward 4,595, 4,565–4,578, and potentially 4,498–4,505.
Do you think gold will complete wave 5 this week, or will buyers defend the liquidity zone first?
XAU/USD - The Channel Strong UpwardGood day traders!
OANDA:XAUUSD is respecting its ascending H4 structure, with price holding above the Ichimoku Cloud after two clean breakout phases. The current drop from the recent highs looks more like a reset inside the trend than a confirmed reversal.
The area I care about is 4,520–4,600. If Gold trades back into this zone, stabilizes and buyers show up again, I still favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 4,800
Macro is mixed today. Gold has eased around 0.6% as traders reduce exposure ahead of the upcoming US PCE inflation data, but lower Treasury yields and ongoing concerns around US fiscal conditions continue to provide underlying support.
That’s why I’m not interested in chasing either side around 4,630. Let the pullback come to a meaningful location first.
A sustained H4 move below 4,520 would weaken this continuation setup and force a fresh look at the channel.
AURICVERSE View: strong trends don’t move vertically forever. The edge here is not chasing the high — it’s seeing whether buyers are still willing to defend 4,520–4,600. If they are, 4,800 stays in play.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below.
XAUUSD – Gold Compresses Before The Next Breakout XAUUSD – Gold Compresses Before The Next Breakout
Gold is moving into a tighter structure after a strong bullish run.
Price is currently trading around 4,635. The market is no longer pushing aggressively higher, but it is also not breaking down strongly. Instead, gold is compressing between the short-term downtrend line above and the Fibonacci support zones below.
This type of structure often comes before a stronger directional move.
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Gold remains supported by the broader bullish momentum, but short-term buyers are becoming more careful after the recent rally.
The market is still watching USD movement, U.S. yields, Fed expectations, inflation pressure, and risk sentiment. If yields stay controlled and the dollar remains soft, gold may continue to attract buyers.
However, after several strong bullish sessions, a deeper correction is still possible before the next continuation move. That is why the reaction around support is more important than chasing price in the middle.
TECHNICAL VIEW – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold is still holding a bullish structure, but price is now forming a short-term compression pattern.
The downtrend line is pressing from above, while buyers are still defending the lower support structure. This means the next breakout will be important.
The first support to watch is around 4,604. This area acted as a previous Fibonacci reaction zone and remains the first place where buyers may try to defend price.
If gold loses 4,604, the deeper Buy Order Fibonacci zone around 4,573 becomes the next important support. This is a better area for a stronger bullish reaction if price makes a deeper sweep before moving higher.
On the upside, gold needs to break above the short-term downtrend line and reclaim the 4,640 – 4,660 area to confirm strength again. If buyers succeed, the next target is around 4,697.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,635
Short-term resistance: 4,640 – 4,660
Breakout confirmation: Above 4,660
Resistance Fibonacci zone: 4,604
Buy Order Fibonacci zone: 4,573
Upside target: 4,697
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,573
Invalidation for short-term bullish view: Below 4,573
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Support Reaction
Buy Zone: 4,573 – 4,604
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong reaction from the Fibonacci buy zone
SL: Below 4,573
TP1: 4,640 – 4,660
TP2: 4,697
Breakout Buy Scenario
Condition: Clean break and hold above 4,660
Entry: Retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,697
Sell Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Sell is not the main view while gold holds above 4,573.
Sell Zone: 4,640 – 4,660
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,604
TP2: 4,573
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,660, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is still bullish overall, but the short-term chart is showing hesitation.
The market is compressing, and that usually means traders should wait for confirmation instead of forcing entries. For me, the cleaner plan is to watch 4,604 first, then 4,573 if price pulls back deeper.
If buyers defend these zones, gold may break the downtrend line and continue toward 4,697.
If 4,573 fails, the bullish structure becomes weaker and gold may need a deeper correction before recovering.
Gold is not weak yet — but the next support reaction will decide whether the bullish wave is ready to continue.
Do you think gold will defend 4,604 and break higher, or will it sweep deeper into 4,573 first?
TATA TECH READY FOR LONG TERM TARGET will consolidate sometime for 630-800 after closing 800 above we seen could rally till 860-900 then will a good selling range so trade last target will be 1200 before that we can se 877 & 920 targets but need a close above 800 and more operating profit and revenue margin also increasing tata tech and European countries tie u will make more stringer plus and dividend healthy payout
future looks strong hold until closed below 500 as weekly close is very strong and fundamental also improving 2027-2028 the best period for tata tech
THELEELA in UptrendTHELEELA seems to have entered an impulse formation.
Currently, we might be in wave 5 or extended wave 3.
We could ride the trend.
If the price starts to sustain below 490, it'd signal a warning sign.
If it starts to move up from here, we will be using trailing SL.
Will keep you guys posted.
HAPPY TRADING
MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU!
XAUUSD — 4,603 Is the Line XAUUSD — 4,603 Is the Line
Gold is finally starting to cool after that strong bullish climb, and this is the first moment where the chart feels like buyers are being tested properly.
Price had been moving inside a clean bullish channel, printing BOS again and again while buyers kept defending the structure. But after the push into the upper side, gold lost that smooth rhythm, broke out of the channel, and printed a ChoCH. That shift matters because it tells me the market is no longer rising freely. Buyers are still present, but they are not controlling every pullback like before.
For newer traders, this is the key idea: after a strong rally, a pullback is not automatically a full reversal. But when price breaks the channel and starts holding below the previous support, we need to watch whether that support becomes resistance. That is where sellers may start reloading.
My main view is bearish for a short-term correction while gold stays below the 4,660 - 4,680 area. The local weakness in gold pricing also fits the idea that the market is taking profit after a stretched move. If price breaks below 4,603.035, the next area I expect gold to hunt is the seller reload zone around 4,564.475.
That zone may create a reaction, but if buyers cannot defend it, price may continue toward the lower FVG area near 4,490 - 4,510. This bearish correction idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims 4,680 and holds above the broken channel again.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,640 - 4,660
Main supply / broken channel zone: 4,660 - 4,680
Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 4,603.035
First downside target: 4,564.475
Main downside FVG target: 4,490 - 4,510
Lower support if selling expands: 4,450 - 4,470
Upper resistance if buyers recover: 4,680 - 4,700
Invalidation: clean reclaim and hold above 4,680
Do you see this channel break as the start of a deeper correction, or do buyers still have enough strength to defend 4,603?
BTC/USD - Breakout Was Explosive — Next Target HigherHi traders, would you chase BITSTAMP:BTCUSD after this run — or wait for the reset?
BTCUSD has made a major structural shift. After breaking the long descending trendline near 65K, price expanded almost vertically to 79,500 and remains well above the Ichimoku Cloud.
The trend is strong, but after a move of this size, I’m more interested in the pullback than another breakout candle.
The key area for me is 75,000–76,200. If BTC rotates back into this zone and buyers absorb the selling pressure, the bullish continuation setup remains attractive.
🎯 Target: 81,400
What I want to see is simple: a controlled correction, support holding, then buyers stepping back in. That would give the market room to reset without damaging the broader H4 structure.
I wouldn’t chase price around 77K–79K after such an aggressive expansion. If H4 starts accepting price below 75K, the setup loses quality and the breakout structure deserves another look.
AURICVERSE View: the breakout already proved the strength of the move. The next question is whether buyers can turn 75K–76.2K into a real base. If they can, 81.4K stays on my radar.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below.
BTCUSDT: Bullish flag, Bulls holding the lineBTCUSDT is trading around 77,500 USDT following a strong rally from the 65K region. The price has shifted into a consolidation/sideways phase within a narrowing range, indicating that the market is absorbing profit-taking rather than undergoing a clear reversal.
Macro factors remain slightly supportive of BTC. The US Dollar is hovering near multi-month lows as the US Treasury's plan to increase long-term bond buybacks continues to exert downward pressure on the currency; Reuters has also noted that Bitcoin is benefiting from this environment.
Technically, BTC remains above the EMA34 and EMA89, maintaining its bullish structure. If the 75,000–76,000 USDT zone holds and the price breaks out of the current consolidation range, I anticipate the rally could extend to the 80,000–81,700 USDT level.
However, following a gain of over 20% in a short period, on-chain data shows high levels of unrealized profit among traders; consequently, a pullback prior to further gains remains a distinct possibility.
XAUUSD: Upcoming Pullback SessionXAUUSD is trading around $4,640; the H4 candle has dropped nearly 1% after the price approached the $4,680–$4,700 zone but failed to sustain its upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, Gold has extended significantly beyond the EMA34 and EMA89, and selling pressure is emerging near the highs. If the price continues to struggle in the $4,660–$4,700 range, I anticipate a pullback to the $4,420–$4,520 support zone, with the $4,480 level being particularly noteworthy.
This should be viewed as a technical pullback within a broader bullish trend, rather than a full bearish reversal.
BTCUSDT: Neckline Holds Firm, 83K Next TargetBTCUSDT is trading around 80,800 USDT following a strong breakout above the neckline zone of 79,000–79,500. The price remains above the EMA34 and EMA89, indicating that the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
Macroeconomic factors are currently providing mild support for BTC. Reuters reports that Bitcoin continues to rise today, while the DXY hovers near three-month lows and Treasury yields have stabilized following the US Treasury's plan to expand long-term bond buybacks. A weak USD environment generally remains favorable for crypto.
From a technical perspective, I am prioritizing a potential retest of the 78,800–79,500 USDT zone. If the neckline flips to support and buying pressure returns, BTC could extend its rally toward 82,500–83,000 USDT.
Will BTC retest the 79K level first, or continue its breakout straight to 83K?
NIFTY — POST-EXPIRY TRADING PLAN | 26-AUG-2026
Previous Close: 24,334.55
Context: Monthly Expiry was on 25-Aug-2026. Today marks the first session of the new monthly F&O series.
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🔑 KEY REFERENCE LEVELS (Pre-Market Study)
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🔴 Opening/Last Intraday Resistance: 24,404 – 24,433
🟠 No-Trade / Opening Support Zone: 24,277 – 24,315
🟢 Last Intraday Support: 24,181
🟢 Extended Support: 24,075
🎯 Upside Target Zone 1: 24,546
🎯 Upside Target Zone 2: 24,614
📌 Educational Note: Since Today was expiry, today's Open Interest (OI) data resets for the new series. Fresh long/short buildup on Day-1 often sets the tone for the coming week(s). Unlike expiry-day trading (where theta decay dominates), today gives us more room to hold positions with defined stop-losses, as premiums have relatively more time value. Trade the structure, not the emotion of "new series excitement."
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1️⃣ GAP UP OPENING SCENARIO (Above 24,434 | 100+ points gap)
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Educational Note:
A gap-up on Day-1 of a new series usually reflects strong global cues or short-covering carried from expiry settlement. Since fresh OI is being built today, the first 15-30 minutes are crucial to see whether fresh longs or short covering is driving the move — this determines sustainability.
Plan of Action:
🔍 Let the first 15-minute candle close fully before reacting — Day-1 gaps often see profit booking early on.
📈 If Nifty sustains above 24,433 with strong follow-through and rising volumes, consider long positions (Call buying / Bull Call Spread) targeting 24,546 → 24,614.
⚠️ If price slips back into 24,404–24,433 zone with weakness/rejection, treat it as a false breakout — avoid fresh longs, wait for a retest of 24,315–24,277 for the next decision.
🛑 Stop-loss for longs: Below 24,404 (keep it slightly wider than expiry-day trades since today allows more room).
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2️⃣ FLAT OPENING SCENARIO (Within 24,235 – 24,434 range)
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Educational Note:
A flat start on Day-1 typically means the market is digesting the previous expiry settlement price and waiting for a directional trigger. The No-Trade Zone (24,277–24,315) is where fresh series positioning is still unclear — avoid the temptation to "predict" direction here.
Plan of Action:
⚠️ Avoid initiating any fresh trade if price oscillates inside 24,277–24,315 — allow the market to pick a side first.
📈 Bullish Trigger: Sustained move & 15-min candle close above 24,315, targeting 24,404 → 24,433 → 24,546. Enter Call buying only on confirmed breakout with rising volume/OI addition in Calls.
📉 Bearish Trigger: Sustained move & 15-min candle close below 24,277, targeting 24,181 → 24,075. Enter Put buying only on confirmed breakdown with rising volume/OI addition in Puts.
🧘 Since it's Day-1 of the series, avoid overtrading — let the market establish its early range before committing bigger size.
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3️⃣ GAP DOWN OPENING SCENARIO (Below 24,235 | 100+ points gap)
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Educational Note:
A gap-down on Day-1 could be driven by global weakness or unwinding of expiry-day hedges. It's important to distinguish between a genuine breakdown and a liquidity-driven overreaction typical of the first session in a new series.
Plan of Action:
🔍 Wait for the first 15-minute candle close — avoid panic shorting right at the open.
📉 If Nifty sustains below 24,181 with weak pullback attempts, initiate short positions (Put buying / Bear Put Spread) targeting 24,075 and below.
⚠️ If price reverses sharply and reclaims 24,181–24,277 convincingly, avoid fresh shorts — this may be a liquidity-driven gap-fill; wait for a retest of 24,277–24,315 for further confirmation.
🛑 Stop-loss for shorts: Above 24,181 (trail as the move develops through the session).
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🛡️ OPTIONS TRADING – RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS
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💰 Position Sizing: Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade — especially important on Day-1 as fresh OI data is still forming and can be misleading.
📈 Track Fresh OI Buildup: On the first day of a new series, monitor whether Call or Put writers are adding aggressively at key strikes — this often reveals the "big money" bias for the coming sessions.
⏱️ More Time Value = More Flexibility: Unlike expiry day, options today carry more time value, so slightly wider stop-losses and holding through minor retracements is more feasible.
🚫 Avoid the No-Trade Zone: The 24,277–24,315 band is a decision zone, not an entry zone — patience here prevents unnecessary losses.
🎯 Fixed SL & Target: Define stop-loss and target before entry — don't let "new series optimism" override discipline.
📉 Use Spreads for Defined Risk: Bull Call Spread / Bear Put Spread helps manage risk better than naked options, especially when early-series volatility is uncertain.
🧘 Don't Rush on Day-1: The first session of a new series doesn't need to be traded aggressively — missing the first move is better than forcing a bad trade.
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📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
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Today, 26-Aug-2026, marks the first trading day of the new monthly F&O series, following yesterday's expiry settlement. The chart shows a well-defined structure:
Resistance Zone: 24,404–24,433 → breakout targets 24,546/24,614
Support Zone: 24,277–24,315 (No-Trade Zone) → breakdown targets 24,181/24,075
Regardless of whether the market opens with a Gap Up, Flat, or Gap Down, the approach remains consistent: wait for the first 15-minute confirmation, respect the No-Trade Zone, and align trades with volume/OI confirmation. Since this is Day-1 of a fresh series, use this session to observe how institutional positioning unfolds rather than forcing aggressive trades early.
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER
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I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This post is purely for educational purposes to help traders understand technical levels, market structure, and risk management concepts. This is not investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Please consult your own financial advisor and do your own due diligence before making any trading or investment decisions. Trading in the stock market and derivatives (F&O) is subject to market risk.
The Golden Rest Zone: Where Rallies Pause After the ClimbThis post is educational and observational in nature based on historical price action. It is not a forecast or a trading recommendation.
The Fibonacci Retracement Tool
The Fibonacci retracement tool is used here by anchoring it from the lowest point of the swing to the topmost point of that same swing, measuring the full move from bottom to top. This tool maps out key levels within that range, most notably 50% and 61.8%, which together form what is often referred to as the golden zone, one of the more closely watched retracement areas in technical analysis.
The Observation
A recurring behavior on this chart, and one seen across many stocks after a strong rally from a swing low to a swing high, is that price often pauses and consolidates for an extended period specifically within this 50% to 61.8% zone. Rather than retracing shallowly or falling all the way back to the origin of the move, the market frequently settles right within this golden area before deciding its next direction.
The Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
Within this golden zone, a symmetrical triangle pattern has formed. This is a consolidation structure defined by converging lower highs and higher lows, compressing price into a progressively tighter range. Its presence here, sitting precisely within the golden retracement zone, adds another layer of structural context to this pause in the broader move.
The Bigger Picture
This chart highlights how a mathematically derived zone like the Fibonacci golden area can also become the physical location where a price based pattern like a symmetrical triangle forms. Recognizing that consolidation after a strong rally often gravitates toward this specific retracement range is a useful observation for understanding how rest phases in the market tend to take shape.
Apollo Micro Systems Ltd. (APOLLO)Technical & Fundamental Outlook
Technical
APOLLO is currently trading around 390, consolidating near the 380-382 support zone after facing rejection from the 407-410 area. The chart shows a broader descending structure, with the falling trendline still acting as resistance.
398 is the immediate hurdle, while 407-410 is the key breakout zone. A sustained breakout above this area could open the way toward ₹420-430, followed by ₹440-450 and the previous high near 467.
On the downside, a break below 381 could bring 373 into focus, followed by 354.5
Fundamental
The fundamental picture remains constructive, supported by strong business growth and a sizeable defence order book. The company continues to receive orders from DRDO, defence PSUs and other defence-related customers, providing visibility for future growth.
However, investors should continue monitoring order execution, margins, cash flows and earnings growth as the large order book converts into revenue.
Overall View
380-382 = key support
398 = immediate hurdle
407-410 = major breakout zone
420-430 → 440-450 → 467 = potential upside zones
The setup becomes technically stronger only after a sustained breakout above 407-410.
Natural Gas: Buy Zone 210–222 | September Time CycleNatural Gas Futures – Weekly Analysis
Price is currently trading around 266.
I am watching the 210–222 zone as a potential buying area.
The setup is based on:
Weekly structure & historical support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone
Gann time-cycle observation
Potential Elliott Wave flat correction completing around September-end
Potential upside levels:
🎯 295
🎯 375
🎯 473
The idea is conditional — I would look for a suitable reversal/confirmation near the 210–222 zone rather than entering blindly.
Time window: September 2026
⚠️ Subject to market risk. This is a technical analysis idea, not financial advice.
Tags
#NaturalGas #MCX #TradingIdea #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #Gann #ElliottWave #Commodities #Trading
IRCTC: Flat Correction Near Completion? Elliott Wave Setup### IRCTC: Elliott Wave Correction Near Completion?
IRCTC on the weekly chart appears to be approaching the potential completion of a long-term **Flat Correction**.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current decline is approaching the **₹440–₹420 zone**, which could act as an important area for the completion of the corrective structure.
**Key levels to watch:**
* Correction completion zone: **₹440–₹420**
* Fibonacci 100% level: **~₹409**
* Invalidation: **Weekly close below ₹400**
* Upside levels: **₹546 → ₹688 → ₹774 → ₹860 → ₹967 → ₹1,139**
If the correction completes in this zone and price starts developing a new bullish impulsive structure, the longer-term upside potential could be significant.
A sustained reversal could eventually open the possibility of **₹1,500+ over a 12–24 month horizon**.
For now, the key is to watch price action around **₹440–₹420** and wait for confirmation rather than trying to predict the exact bottom.
**This is an Elliott Wave-based technical view, not a guaranteed price target. Proper confirmation and risk management are essential.**
#IRCTC #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #NSE #SwingTrading #IndianRailway #LongTermView
Testing the Floor: Key Triggers for TCS’s Next Upside LegKey Technical Observations
Retest of Breakout Zone: After an extended decline, price has descended into the highlighted Retest of Breakout Zone (green horizontal box), coinciding with the intersection of the primary ascending support trendline (green) and the descending breakout line (dashed cyan).
Demand Defense:
The emergence of green stabilization candles at this multi-point support confluence indicates that buyers are attempting to defend this structural base.
Key Upside Trigger (2,348.7):
As annotated on the chart, 2,348.7 represents the critical threshold. An End-of-Day Candle Breakout (EOD - CB) above this level is required to confirm momentum reversal and unlock further upside expansion.
Outlook & Strategic Scenarios
Bullish Reversal: A sustained daily close above 2,348.7 confirms the successful retest and opens the pathway for a multi-session relief rally back toward prior distribution highs.
Support Breakdown: A decisive breakdown and daily close below the highlighted green support zone invalidates the setup, risking accelerated selling pressure.
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Nifty setup gets interestingToday the Nifty was an outside bar and an engulfing bull candle. The combination with support from the trendline at the bottom from the April lows creates a nice bullish setup for the Indian stock market. We will be watchful of follow up action in the coming days. It has been a long wait. India charts to mark an impulsive wave count from the recent bottom and we will continue to trace that as it develops.






















