(BTCUSDT.P) 45-Min — Curved Distribution Into Reversal ZoneMarket gives the bullish momentum when the (curve line) breaks
The current market structure on the 45-minute chart suggests that BTC is completing a classic curved distribution pattern, where price gradually loses bullish momentum before accelerating into a liquidation-driven selloff.
What makes this setup technically important is the proportional decline behavior:
1) The first leg down established the initial impulsive move (1x).
2) The second expansion leg extended approximately 2x the initial displacement, confirming bearish momentum acceleration.
3) Price is now approaching a major reaction zone around 78.6k–78.8k, where liquidity and short-term demand are likely concentrated.
Reversal area should not immediately be interpreted as a guaranteed bottom. Instead, traders should monitor for confirmation signals such as:
A)absorption wicks,
B)bullish displacement candles,
C)reclaim of short-term structure,
D)or volume expansion on rebounds.
As long as BTC remains below the descending curve resistance and intraday lower highs continue forming, bearish pressure technically remains dominant.
Key Levels
Resistance: 79.8k → 80.6k
Intraday Supply: 81.0k → 81.8k
Reversal Demand Zone: 78.6k → 78.8k
Breakdown Risk Below: 78.5k
Patience and confirmation remain essential while BTC trades inside this accelerated bearish curve structure.
Wave Analysis
Hindalco Exit / Potential Wave 5 of primary degree completion
Weekly chart
Wave (III) of cycle degree has been in progress since Feb 2016.
Wave 1 (primary degree)/Wave (III) was completed in Jan 2018
Wave 2 (primary degree)/Wave (III) was completed in Mar 2020 (Zigzag)
Wave 3 (primary degree)/Wave (III) was completed in Mar 2022
Wave 3 formed at 2.414 X of Wave 1 (extended wave)
Wave 4 (primary degree)/Wave (III) was completed on 20 Jun 2022 (Zigzag)
Wave 5 (primary degree)/Wave (III) has been in progress since. The chart shows Wave 5 formation.
Details are provided in the chart.
It is highly likely that stock has completed sub-wave 5 /Wave 5 at 1x of sub Waves 1-3 (on weekly chart) on 27 Jan 2026.
The stock since has been forming an extended flat correction. Wave C of Flat in progress.
This may be a right opportunity to exit the stock.
PS : If the stock has really completed SW5/Wave 5 / Wave (III), then it is a major wave completion which has been happening for over a decade since Feb 2016 and hence stock may undergo a longer correction.
RELIANCE Weekly Stock Analysis — Simple & ClearRELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Weekly Stock Analysis — Simple & Clear
Week of 19 – 23 May 2026 | NSE: RELIANCE
Overall Bias: BEARISH | Last Close: ~₹1,360 | 52W Range: ₹1,290 – ₹1,611
Reliance Industries is India's largest private company. It runs businesses in petrol refining, Jio telecom, Reliance Retail, and new clean energy. It is one of the biggest stocks in Nifty 50 and has a huge impact on the overall market.
Recently, Reliance's Q4 FY26 results were mixed — sales went up 12.5% but net profit fell 12.55% compared to last year. This has made investors cautious about the stock in the short term.
Level Price (₹) What it means
Resistance 3 (Strong) 1,450–1,460 Very strong selling zone. Hard to cross without big news.
Resistance 2 1,410–1,420 200-day average zone. Heavy resistance here.
Resistance 1 (Immediate) 1,380–1,395 50-day average and recent supply zone. First hurdle to cross.
Current Price Zone 1,355–1,370 Stock is trading here now. Sideways and weak.
Support 1 (Immediate) 1,330–1,340 First support. If this breaks, more selling expected.
Support 2 (Strong) 1,290–1,300 52-week low area. Very strong base. Major buying expected here.
What Can Happen Next Week?
If stock goes UP:
• First target is ₹1,380–1,395 (50-day average zone). Needs to close above this
• After that, ₹1,410–1,420 is the next target (200-day average)
• A close above ₹1,420 will be a strong signal that the stock is recovering
If stock goes DOWN:
• If ₹1,330–1,340 breaks, expect a fall to the 52-week low of ₹1,290
• Below ₹1,290, there is very little support and the fall could be sharp
• Avoid buying on the way down unless ₹1,290 holds with good volume
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NIFTY 50 : 24400 level again ??1] If tomorrow (i.e 14th May 2026) nifty open flat to positive, we can see nifty starting upside journey till 24400 levels again.
2] If Nifty opens gap-down, kindly ignore this view.
3] Follow Stop-loss very strictly. This view is only for equity segment and not for option buying or option selling.
4] This is high risky view as currently global economic conditions are not in favor of bullish market. Crude oil price are surging and rupee getting depreciated, hence this is view is highly risky.
5] Nifty has completed Wave-A in the form of (A-B-C) and it has completed Wave-B in the form of flat pattern (A-B-C) and flat pattern completed at exactly at 1.618 fib level which is flat pattern last retracement level.
6] Also we can see Bullish butterfly pattern formed and completed at 1.27 fib level.
7] As per Elliot Wave and Harmonic pattern, we can see some short term bullish movement in nifty till 24400 level.
Disclaimer : This view is only for learning and educational purpose and it's not any kind of buy or sell recommendation. Kindly consult your financial advisor for stock market related investments. I am not responsible for your profit and loss.
Wave Pattern Simplified ( Prefered) I have Just Put a chart using Noiseless charting method
Kagi is one of the finest Charting system people have bearly understood , it has No noise
its clean to view & Understand the Patterns on Visual basis
I am still Looking this will Go down unless there is change in intermidate swing of W4
I am convinced the down fall of another 2000+ in coming days
This charting post will give an ideal representaion of Wave Theory ,
Wave Theory is itself having deep subject
If you have any Questions Please feel to ask me here
Thanks
IntradayIntraday option trading involves buying and selling option contracts within the same trading day to profit from short-term price movements.
Traders use strategies based on volatility, momentum, and market trends, often focusing on index options like Nifty or Bank Nifty.
Institutional trading refers to large-scale trading conducted by entities such as mutual funds, banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies.
These institutions trade huge volumes using advanced research, algorithms, and risk management systems.
Institutional activity strongly influences market direction, liquidity, and volatility.
Retail traders often track institutional buying and selling patterns to understand market sentiment and improve intraday option trading decisions.
nifty ( alternate )The weekly chart suggests that each decline is unfolding in a complex three-wave corrective structure, forming a W-X-Y-X-Z pattern. Based on this alternate Elliott Wave count, the market currently appears to be in Wave C of the final Wave Z. If this interpretation is correct, Wave Z could produce the strongest phase of fear and capitulation, leading to maximum panic before the larger correction is fully completed.
niftyThe reason I continue to push this idea is because market breadth remains extremely weak and overall sentiment is deeply negative — conditions that are typically observed during a Wave 2 correction in Elliott Wave structure. Breadth indicators and sentiment analysis help reveal the underlying mood of the market, and historically, they have proven to be reliable tools in identifying these corrective phases
Nifty - where is it heading - Most probable view / EWPRefer to my earlier post on Nifty dated 23 March 2015 titled “Nifty – Where is it heading”.
As conveyed in the said note, Nifty completed :-
- Wave 1 (Primary degree)/Wave (III) during Oct 2021 and Wave 2 (primary degree)/Wave III during June 2022.
- Wave 3 (Primary degree)/Wave (III) during Sep 24 at equality to Wave 1. Then came the correction from Sep 24 to Apr 25.
What was the earlier view?
The correction during the period Sep 24 – Apr 25 was considered as a Zigzag and hence the completion of Wave 4 of primary degree. Further to this a 5-wave impulse structure got completed during Jan 26 at equal length of the previous correction. This was considered as Wave 5 and hence completion of a Wave (III) of cycle degree. This view may not be right as the presumed 5 wave sequence was of minor degree, while a Wave 5 of primary degree will to be 5 wave sequence of intermediary.
The other option and the most probable one look as below:-
- The correction during the period Sep 24 – Apr 25 is one single wave (and not a zigzag) and is Wave A of a Flat.
- Wave B of the flat was the impulse that got completed during Jan 26 at equality to Wave A.
- Wave C of the Zigzag is unfolding.
So where is Nifty heading ?
- As per EWP, Wave C of a regular flat has to be a 5 wave structure and should be more than 1X of the length of Wave A.
- Hence, if Nifty is forming a flat, Wave C will have to make a lower than wave A (Apr 25 lows).
- The unfolding of the wave C also supports such a view.
HENCE EXPECT NIFTY TO MAKE A LOWER LOW THAN 8 Apr 25 and complete Wave C / Wave 4 or intermediary degree as a Flat.
Gold Is Sweeping Liquidity — Real Breakout or Just Another Trap?After CPI, the market reacted strongly as both inflation and core inflation started rising again.
Gold also experienced aggressive liquidity sweeps after the news, showing that the market is still heavily conflicted and has not chosen a clear direction yet.
Looking at the 3H timeframe:
No candle has closed above the 4747–4750 zone
No candle has closed below the 4650 zone
This suggests that gold is still trapped inside a wide trading range with very aggressive liquidity sweeps on both sides.
Personal View
For now, I still prefer trading the range and avoiding chasing breakouts.
The market is sweeping both sides aggressively, so traders should stay extremely cautious with fake moves.
BUY zones I’m watching:
4645–4650
4590–4596
458X
These are the key support zones if the market continues making deeper sweeps.
Main Idea
Gold is still trading inside a range and waiting for the real breakout.
Until one side clearly breaks, liquidity sweeps remain the most likely scenario.
Tonight, the market will also focus on PPI data and developments surrounding the Fed Chair voting process.
“Not every breakout becomes a trend — sometimes it’s just another liquidity sweep.”
Do you think gold is accumulating for a major breakout — or is the market preparing for one more deep sweep before choosing direction?
XAUUSD Head & Shoulders Retest In PlayThe market is currently forming a clear Head & Shoulders structure, and price is now reacting inside the retesting zone of the pattern.
On the left shoulder area, the market already showed bearish rejection with a shooting star and marubozu-style reaction, which indicates that sellers are active around this structure. However, I still want to see one more proper retest confirmation before expecting a stronger downside move.
If the market forms any strong negative candle inside this retesting zone, then the probability of bearish continuation increases significantly. In that case, price could start moving toward the downside and target the lower liquidity areas.
The main reason behind this bearish expectation is the amount of liquidity resting below the current market structure. Markets often move toward those liquidity pools before creating the next major reversal.
For now, the structure still needs confirmation. If sellers defend the retesting zone properly and bearish momentum returns, the downside scenario may become active.
In my view, the market is currently sitting at an important decision area, and the reaction inside this retesting zone will likely decide the next major move.
Gold 6H AnalysisCOMEX:GC1! Gold on the 6 Hour Time Frame is currently following a trendline, and the market is trading inside an important zone.
If the price respects the support of the zone, we will look for long opportunities. If the market breaks the zone on the downside, then we can plan for sell-side opportunities. Also, once we get a proper breakout or breakdown from the zone, trades can be planned with confirmation.
For short-term contract trading:
• Buy near support
• Sell near resistance
Entries will be taken on the 1 Hour Time Frame for better confirmation.
The 6 Hour Time Frame is being used because the price action is looking much cleaner and clearer on that timeframe.
So, you can plan your trades accordingly with proper risk management.
BTCUSDT Analysis 15 Min : Rounded Top & Support Reversal PlayPattern: Well-defined "Arc" or Rounded Top formation following a strong early-morning bullish rally.
Current State: Price is breaking down from the curved resistance dome, demonstrating short-term bearish momentum up to Reversal Area.
Current State: Price is breaking down from the curved resistance dome, demonstrating short-term bearish momentum up to Reversal Area.
Key Technical Zones
Immediate Support: Major demand zone identified between 80,800.0 – 80,850.0 (Reversal Area).
Upside Target: Projected resistance and take-profit liquidity zone located around 81,420.0 – 81,480.
Trading Strategy
The Play: Look for a liquidity sweep into the lower Reversal Area to exhaust sellers.
Execution: Confirm bullish price action (e.g., pin bars, engulfing candles) at the Reversal Area before entering longs.
Risk Management: Follow the Risk to Reward Ratio Atleast 1:2, Use only 1% of your total capital.
NIFTY 50 : Final fall before next bull runNifty 50 is consolidating in last 18 months in the form of Flat Pattern.
Flat Pattern Wave-A and Wave-B completed and final Leg C (wave-C) is in progress.
In Wave-C, last wave 5 is pending which should be the final fall for Nifty 50
Note : This view is only for Learning and Education purpose.
AUDCAD: Corrective Dip May Fuel Next Rally
AUDCAD on the 1H chart is still trading within a corrective structure after the strong rally to the 0.9930 high. Instead of continuing higher immediately, the price began moving within a falling channel, indicating that momentum has slowed in the short term. The current structure looks more like a controlled pullback rather than aggressive selling.
At the moment, price is struggling to reclaim the upper boundary of the channel, while sellers continue defending the resistance zone near 0.9921 . As long as the pair remains inside the channel, the correction phase is still active, and wave 4 may need more time to complete.
The downside support levels to watch during this correction are 0.98821 and 0.98518 . Those areas could act as the completion zone for the current pullback before buyers attempt to regain control.
If wave 4 completes successfully and AUDCAD breaks back above resistance, the next upside targets come in at 0.99213, 0.99650, and 1.00240 .
We will update further information soon.
Nifty : The Strategic Blueprint (13-May-2026)🗺️
The market is currently painting a clear picture of "Gravity in Action." After slicing through previous supports like butter, Nifty is now hovering at a psychological edge. Think of the current price action as a mountaineer sliding down a slope, looking for a ledge to grab onto.
📉 The Post-Game Analysis (12-May vs. Actual)
Yesterday was a masterclass in trend continuation.
The Forecast: We kept a close eye on the 23,600 "Value Bounce" zone.
The Reality: The bears had other plans; they didn't even allow a retest.
The Outcome: By shattering the 23,603 floor, that level has now transformed into a formidable ceiling (Resistance). We ended the day at 23,430, right at the doorstep of our new "No Trade Zone."
🚀 Scenario A: The "Relief" Gap Up (Above 23,550)
The Landscape: Resistance sits heavy at 23,603–23,682, while support tries to form at 23,448.
The Psychology: This is often a "Trap Door" move. Early buyers think the bottom is in, but the big money uses the liquidity to sell higher.
The Tactical Play:
• Patience First: Let the index drift into the red supply box (23,603-23,682).
• The Trigger: Look for a "Shooting Star" or a bearish rejection candle on the 15-min chart near 23,603.
• The Trade: Short on the breakdown of that candle’s low, targeting a slide back to 23,448.
↔️ Scenario B: The "Deadlock" Flat Open (23,324 - 23,448)
The Landscape: This is the orange No Trade Zone—a playground for professional hunters and a graveyard for retail "guessers."
The Psychology: The market is catching its breath. It’s a tug-of-war where neither side has the upper hand.
The Tactical Play:
• Hands in Pockets: No trades inside the 23,324–23,448 range.
• The Breakout: Only enter a Short if we close below 23,324, aiming for 23,106.
• The Scalp: A 15-min close above 23,448 offers a quick long scalp toward the 23,600 area.
🌊 Scenario C: The "Panic" Gap Down (Below 23,300)
The Landscape: Support is waiting in the green box at 23,106–23,186; ultimate disaster support sits at 22,701.
The Psychology: This is the "Exhaustion" phase. When everyone is terrified and selling at any price, the "Smart Money" starts looking for a bargain.
The Tactical Play:
• Don't Chase: Shorting a massive gap down is high-risk.
• The Reversal: Watch the 23,106 green box for a "Hammer" or "W-Pattern."
• The Contra-Trade: If 23,100 holds, look for a quick long position for a "mean reversion" back to 23,300.
🛡️ The Risk Management "Shield"
Sizing is Strategy: In this volatility, your position size is your survival rate. Cut it by 60-70%.
The Polarity Principle: Remember that old supports (23,603) are now your enemies (resistances). Respect the flip.
Spread the Risk: Instead of buying naked Put/Call options, use Option Spreads to hedge against the high IV (Implied Volatility).
No Prediction, Only Reaction: Don't say "it must bounce." Say "If it closes above X, I will do Y."
✨ Summary & Conclusion
Directional Bias: Structurally weak, looking for a relief bounce near 23,100.
Critical Pivot: 23,603.
Mindset: Be a sniper. If the market stays in the "No Trade Zone," don't fire. Preservation of capital is the ultimate profit.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This is for educational purposes only.
Global Financial MarketsGlobal financial markets are systems where people, companies, and governments buy and sell financial assets across the world. They help move money from those who have extra funds to those who need funds.
Main Types of Global Financial Markets:
Stock Markets – Buying and selling shares of companies (e.g., NYSE, NSE).
Bond Markets – Governments and companies borrow money by issuing bonds.
Foreign Exchange (Forex) Markets – Trading currencies like USD, EUR, INR.
Commodity Markets – Trading gold, oil, wheat, etc.
Money Markets – Short-term borrowing and lending.
Derivatives Markets – Contracts based on assets like stocks or currencies.
Importance:
Provide funds for business growth
Support international trade
Create investment opportunities
Help manage financial risks
Affect global economies
Example:
If the US stock market falls sharply, markets in Asia and Europe may also be affected because markets are connected globally.
NZDJPY - Consolidation May Be Fueling the Next RallyNZDJPY on the daily chart still looks structurally bullish despite the recent consolidation near the highs. After the strong rally from the 85.35 low, the price pushed into the resistance area and has since been moving sideways inside a tightening structure. Instead of seeing a sharp rejection, the pair continues to hold higher lows, which usually signals that buyers are still active in the bigger trend.
The current consolidation also looks like a potential contracting pattern before continuation. Price keeps respecting the rising support trendline while sellers struggle to force a deeper breakdown. That balance between higher lows and capped resistance often builds pressure for a stronger directional move later.
At the moment, the structure remains constructive as long as the price continues holding above the rising support zone. Momentum has slowed slightly, but buyers are still defending dips instead of allowing a deeper correction.
If NZDJPY starts breaking higher from the current structure, the next upside targets come in at 94.97, 96.14, and 97.85. Until then, the pair may continue consolidating before the next expansion move begins.
We will update further information soon.
@BrightRally_Research
EXIDEIND: EV Hype Meets Q4 Earnings Beat!Technical Phase: Re-Accumulation
Events:
Spring: sharp flush into 345 area with reclaim
SOS: impulsive recovery candle after sweep
LPS: consolidation around 360–362 holding higher lows
CO Intent:
Absorb panic selling → continue markup
Effort vs Result:
Strong bullish effort produced sustained recovery ✔️
Cause vs Effect:
Base around 345–355 generating continuation toward 366 supply
Structure:
Bullish HH/HL on LTF
Bullish reclaim after liquidity flush
BOS / CHoCH:
Bullish BOS above 358–360 ✔️
Liquidity:
Sell-side swept below 350 ✔️
Buy-side liquidity above 366–370
Reaction:
Strong displacement from discount ✔️
Location:
Current price = premium / supply zone
Fresh longs here less efficient
Decisive Zone: 361.05 - 366.25
if breaks 366.25 then target 382.50
if breaks below 361.05 then 343.30
if we go by sweep of intraday lows then a seperate trade is formed of buy at 360 SL 357 target 366, 376
Narrative is:
Smart money swept sell-side liquidity below 350 and aggressively reclaimed value.
Late shorts trapped from the flush; next liquidity objective sits above 366–370 highs.
So in shorts below decisive zone, extra precaution needed.
XAUUSD - CPI Surge & Ascending Channel SupportXAUUSD - CPI Storm & Ascending Channel Support – Buying the FVG Dip
Today promises to be an explosive trading session for Gold as the market holds its breath for the most crucial inflation data of the month. Below is the trading plan breaking down the intersection of the macro backdrop and technical price action.
Macro Context: The CPI Storm
Today's focal point is undoubtedly the U.S. Consumer Price Index report. With y/y CPI forecast to jump to 3.7 percent and Core CPI m/m expected at 0.3 percent, the anticipation of hotter inflation has pressured Gold lower in recent sessions. However, if the actual CPI prints lower or meets expectations, this will be the perfect catalyst for buyers to step back in at major technical supports.
Ascending Channel Structure & Order Flow Shift
Looking at the H1 chart, Gold's overall structure is still supported by a highly respected Ascending Channel. The technical highlight is that Gold has completed a 5-wave Elliott impulse sequence, peaking at 4,760. The current sharp drop acts as a necessary corrective phase and a shakeout of FOMO buyers before the macroeconomic news hits.
Elliott Wave Scenario & Points of Interest
This aggressive drop has opened up excellent opportunities to hunt for liquidity pools:
Buy Zone FVG: Price is diving straight into the lower orange Fair Value Gap between 4,680 and 4,690. This is a massive Demand zone that perfectly converges with the lower boundary of the Ascending Channel. Kelly expects a sharp bullish bounce from this area.
Upper FVG Magnet: The sell-off has left a massive FVG void above, around 4,740 to 4,750. Based on order flow principles, price will naturally gravitate toward this zone to fill the liquidity gap.
Trading Plan
With the Ascending Channel structure unbroken and a clear Demand zone established, the priority is a trend-following Long setup, timing the news release:
Optimal Entry: Patiently look for buys within the FVG Buy zone of 4,680 to 4,690. Wait for the CPI news liquidity sweep and a clear reversal signal like a Pinbar or Engulfing candle on the M15 timeframe to optimize the position.
Stop Loss: Strictly place below 4,670, safely under the FVG and the channel's lower boundary, to avoid Market Maker liquidity sweeps during the news release. Absolutely no averaging down on losing positions.
Take Profit 1: Target 4,710 at the short-term psychological resistance.
Take Profit 2: Target 4,740 to 4,750 to completely fill the upper FVG.
Take Profit 3: Target 4,760 to retest the Wave 5 peak.
The market always runs wild during CPI releases, and managing your capital strictly is what keeps you alive. Risk 1 to 2 percent per trade, and trade with discipline.
Disclaimer: This post represents personal views based on objective technical analysis, not financial investment advice. Trade safely!






















