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RELIANCE: Triple Support Confluence at 1,304 – Bounce or Break?Technical Context
Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) is moving inside a large "Megaphone" shape (a Broadening Wedge ) on the weekly chart. This means the price swings are getting bigger and more volatile. After falling from its high point of 1,611 , the stock has landed exactly at a major "floor" near 1,304 .
This 1,304 level is very important because three things are happening at once:
200-WMA: The price is touching a long-term moving average that big banks and funds usually protect.
0.618 Fibonacci: It is at a "Golden Ratio" support level, which is a common place for a bounce.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Even though the RSI (momentum) looks low at 37 , the price is staying higher than its previous low. This often means the uptrend is still alive.
Bullish Scenario
Thesis: The buyers will defend the 1,304 floor, leading to a strong bounce back toward the top of the megaphone.
Trigger: A strong weekly close above 1,350 .
Targets: First target is 1,450 , with a long-term goal of 1,650 or higher.
Invalidation: If the price closes the week below 1,290 , this "buy the dip" idea is cancelled.
Bearish Scenario
Thesis: If the floor at 1,304 breaks, the stock will fall quickly toward the bottom green line.
Trigger: A weekly close below 1,290 .
Targets: First drop to 1,215 (green support line), and then down to 1,114 .
Invalidation: If the price quickly climbs back above 1,400 .
Summary
RELIANCE is at a "make or break" moment. The 1,300 level is the most important price to watch right now. Because of the Hidden Bullish Divergence and the 200-WMA , there is a high chance of a bounce. However, if the price falls below 1,300 , it could lead to much lower prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own decisions before making any trading decisions. 
Long
AIOT/USDT QUICK SCALPBased on the chart provided for AIOT/TetherUS Perpetual on the 15-minute timeframe, here is a technical breakdown of the current price action and the setup you have highlighted.
Current Market Context
Asset: AIOTUSDT.P (AIOT Perpetual Futures)
Timeframe: 15m (Short-term intraday)
Trend: Strongly Bearish. The price has undergone a massive sell-off from a high of approximately 0.05776 down to the current level of 0.02992.
Momentum: The steep angle of the red candles and the position below the moving average (the grey line) suggest intense selling pressure with very little retracement during the drop.
The Setup: Long Position Analysis
You have plotted a "Long" risk/reward tool at the bottom of this crash. Here is what the technicals suggest about this move:
1. Support & Bottom Fishing
The price is currently hovering around 0.02992, which appears to be a local psychological support. You’ve placed your "Stop Loss" just below the recent wick low at 0.02683.
The Logic: This is a "mean reversion" or "bounce" play. After such a vertical drop, the asset is technically oversold, and traders often look for a relief rally.
2. Risk-to-Reward (R:R)
Entry: ~$0.02992
Stop Loss (SL): $0.02683 (Protecting against a continuation of the crash)
Take Profit (TP) Target: Your green box extends back up toward the 0.057 area.
Analysis: While the R:R ratio looks mathematically attractive, targeting the previous all-time high immediately is highly ambitious. In a downtrend this strong, the first major hurdles will be the EMA (grey line) and previous "lower highs" near 0.039 and 0.045.
Key Risks & Considerations
⚠️ Caution: "Catching a falling knife" is one of the riskiest strategies in crypto.
Lack of Consolidation: Currently, there is no "base" or sideways movement to indicate that sellers are exhausted. We see one small green candle, but it hasn't yet engulfed the previous red candle.
The "Dead Cat Bounce": In crashes like this, any upward movement is often just a temporary pause before the price makes a new lower low.
Volatility: AIOT appears to be a high-volatility asset. Tight stop losses can be easily hunted by "wicking" before the actual move happens.
Summary of the Trade Plan
Bullish Case: If $0.02745 (the recent Low) holds, a recovery to the 0.035 - 0.040 zone is a reasonable first target for a relief rally.
Bearish Case: If the price closes a 15m candle below 0.02683, the bearish momentum is likely to continue, and the long setup is invalidated.
Recommendation: Look for a "Double Bottom" pattern or a break above the grey moving average on the 15m chart to confirm that the trend is actually shifting before committing to a full position. 
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$TRX is currently trading inside a rising wedge on the 12H chartAMEX:TRX is currently trading inside a rising wedge on the 12H timeframe, with price sitting around 0.289–0.290 after another rejection near the upper wedge resistance around 0.291–0.292.
Price attempted to break the upper wedge, but the breakout failed and sellers immediately pushed it back inside the structure. This type of rejection often leads to a rotation toward the lower boundary of the wedge.
Right now, momentum is slightly weakening after the rejection, which increases the probability of a move toward the lower wedge support around 0.282–0.284.
If price continues drifting lower, the wedge support becomes the next reaction zone, where buyers previously stepped in multiple times.
However, if TRX manages to reclaim 0.292 with strong candles, the rejection becomes a fake move and the market could expand toward 0.298–0.302.
Trade Plan:
With the rejection from the upper wedge, traders may look for a short-term move toward the lower wedge support.
Stop Loss: 0.2920
Resistance: 0.292
Support zone: 0.282–0.284
For now, price is rotating inside the wedge, and the next move will likely test one of the structure boundaries.
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BHEL: Bear Flag on Weekly, Fundamentals Don’t Help EitherBig Picture (Weekly)
BHEL formed a bearish pole and flag on the weekly chart. After a sharp fall, price moved into a rising, overlapping channel — typical corrective behaviour.
Wave X looks completed near 305.9 . As long as price stays below this level, the structure favours another leg down.
Zoom In (1H)
From 305.9 — 240.5 , price unfolded in a clean ABC zigzag , marking (a) of Y .
The current rise is overlapping, slow, and wedge-shaped , suggesting a corrective (b) of Y , not a new trend.
Confluence to note:
Rising wedge formation
0.618 retracement of the entire fall near ~280
Momentum losing steam near resistance
A break below the lower wedge trendline is the trigger for the final (c) of Y decline.
Fundamentals Check
Fundamentals are not supporting upside here:
P/E ~118 — wildly stretched for a PSU with low returns
ROCE ~2–3% — weak capital efficiency
Operating margins ~5.5% — thin and fragile
Free cash flow = inconsistent — spikes, then collapses; not durable
Debt increased sharply in the latest year
In short: price optimism > business reality.
Trade View
Bias: Bearish below 305.9
Entry:
On a 1H breakdown below the rising wedge
Targets:
165 (primary)
150 (extended, if momentum expands)
Invalidation:
Weekly close above 305.9 — bearish view fails
Bottom Line
This is a classic case where structure, lower-timeframe signals, and fundamentals are aligned .
Until proven otherwise, rallies look corrective — not the start of a new bull run.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. 
Short
CADCHF-M15CAD/CHF has delivered a textbook sell-side liquidity raid beneath the Asian range, purging weak longs before staging an aggressive displacement higher. The reaction from the discount array suggests deliberate smart money activity, with price repricing toward equilibrium after leaving a clear imbalance in the wake of the impulsive markdown.
The current dealing range is defined by the recent swing high and the freshly engineered liquidity low near 0.56420. With price now trading back above the mean threshold, the narrative shifts toward a draw on liquidity resting at the buyside pools overhead.
Orderflow observations indicate:
• **Liquidity Event:** External range liquidity was efficiently harvested, followed by immediate rejection, signaling absorption rather than continuation.
• **Displacement:** The impulsive rally establishes a short-term market structure shift, increasing the probability of continuation toward premium.
• **Fair Value Gap (FVG):** Price is actively rebalancing the inefficiency, reinforcing the case for algorithmic delivery toward opposing liquidity.
• **PD Array Alignment:** Current pricing favors rotation from discount to premium within the active dealing range.
**Execution Framework:**
Tactical longs remain favorable on shallow retracements into imbalance or consequent encroachment, provided price maintains acceptance above 0.56420. Failure to hold this level would imply incomplete sell-side objectives, exposing the pair to deeper liquidity magnets.
**Liquidity Targets:**
Primary draw rests at 0.56540, with resting buyside liquidity projected near 0.56680. A clean expansion through this zone could trigger a momentum cascade toward 0.56790.
Until proven otherwise, expect algorithmic delivery to favor premium pricing as the market seeks balance after the engineered liquidity event.
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