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The method for interpreting the auxiliary indicators StochRSI and OBV is as follows.
I believe that looking at the StochRSI and OBV indicators together can help you understand the waves.
Basically, the StochRSI indicator displays waves based on the 50 point.
This allows you to understand regression to the mean and median, which are important for understanding charts.
If the StochRSI indicator rises above 80, it can be interpreted as a higher probability of forming a peak, as there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Conversely, if the StochRSI indicator falls below 20, it can be interpreted as a higher probability of forming a bottom, as there is a possibility that the decline will be constrained.
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A rise in the OBV indicator signifies an increase in trading volume.
This trading volume allows us to determine whether the price is rising or falling.
Therefore, we establish Low Lines and High Lines; we interpret a drop below the Low Line as an increase in selling pressure, and a rise above the High Line as an increase in buying pressure.
We also create short-term (EMA 1), medium-term (EMA 2), and long-term (EMA 3) lines to monitor the current flow of trading volume.
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Consequently, if the OBV indicator rises above the High Line and remains above it when the StochRSI indicator rises above 80, the likelihood of an upward trend driven by buying pressure increases.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator rises above 80, it is necessary to observe the movement of the OBV indicator in conjunction to determine whether a peak will be formed or if it will lead to further gains.
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It is practically difficult to view the auxiliary indicators StochRSI and OBV alongside the price candles.
Therefore, we have added the StochRSI and OBV indicators to the price candle section to enable intuitive interpretation.
The indicators representing the lows are OBV Low and StochRSI 20.
Consequently, if the price shows signs of support near OBV Low and StochRSI 20, it should be considered a buying opportunity, and you should focus on identifying the optimal buying timing.
The indicators representing the highs are OBV High and StochRSI 80.
Consequently, if the price shows signs of resistance near OBV High and StochRSI 80, it should be considered a selling opportunity, and you should focus on identifying the optimal selling timing.
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Let's interpret the chart by looking at the indicators displayed at the current price level.
The indicators are arranged in the order of OBV Low < StochRSI 80 < Price < OBV High < StochRSI 20.
In other words, since the price is located within the OBV Low to OBV High range, it can be considered that the price is currently in a sideways or box range.
Since the price is positioned above StochRSI 80, it can be interpreted that there is a high probability of an upward movement if the price maintains a level above StochRSI 80.
However, since the price is positioned below StochRSI 20, such a rise is likely to be short-term or day trading.
Therefore, for the price to show a full-fledged uptrend, it must rise above StochRSI 20 and maintain the price.
Consequently, the condition must be OBV High and StochRSI 80 < Price.
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The StochRSI 50 indicator can be considered a reference point.
In other words, when the StochRSI 50 indicator is generated or touched, the likelihood of creating a new trend increases depending on whether it acts as support.
This is because the 50 mark of the StochRSI indicator corresponds to the median and average value.
Therefore, since the price has encountered the StochRSI 50 mark while the OBV is low and the StochRSI is below 80, it indicates a high probability that a new trend is forming.
Consequently, whether the price will rise or fall in the future depends on whether support is found at the StochRSI 50 mark.
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Although the OBV and StochRSI indicators were added near the price candles, the reason they were included in the auxiliary indicators is to observe the overall trend.
For example, while the StochRSI 50 mark was generated as the price rose, the auxiliary indicators show the StochRSI dropping below 50.
Therefore, this helps prevent errors in interpretation.
Since the auxiliary StochRSI indicator has dropped below 50, it appears highly likely that the price will fall further.
Therefore, it can be interpreted that there is a higher probability of encountering resistance at the StochRSI 50 indicator point marked on the price candle.
In this case, referring to the movement of the OBV indicator can aid in interpreting the StochRSI.
If the price finds support at the StochRSI 50 point and rises, it is highly likely that the OBV indicator will show a rise above EMA 1.
If the OBV indicator fails to rise above EMA 1, it is highly likely that it will show a decline at the StochRSI 50 point.
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There is one more thing to consider here.
That is, you must examine whether the zone formed by the Low Line to the High Line of the auxiliary indicator, the OBV, is in a converged state or an expanded state.
Currently, the zone formed by the OBV Low Line to the High Line can be considered to be in an expanded state.
In such an expanded state, a wide volume profile is formed, which increases the likelihood of facing constraints on either upward or downward movements.
Since the OBV indicator is currently located near the Low Line, it is highly likely that upward movement will be constrained, and it would not be surprising if the price fell at any moment.
Therefore, it is advisable to wait until the price consolidates and the zone formed by the Low Line and High Line converges.
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The HA-Low and HA-High indicators were created for trading on Heikin Ashi charts.
If a Heikin Ashi candle has fallen and then turned bullish, indicating a genuine uptrend, there is a high probability that the HA-Low indicator will be generated.
Therefore, the generation of the HA-Low indicator signifies that a bottom zone has been formed.
Consequently, if the price shows signs of support near the HA-Low indicator, it is a buying opportunity.
To further confirm this, the DOM (-60) indicator has been added to mark the bottom zone.
Therefore, the low point zone is formed within the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low indicator range.
If the price falls when the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low indicator range is formed, it is likely to exhibit a stepwise downtrend by renewing the low point zone.
This stepwise downtrend will eventually form a bottom zone, and the likelihood of a transition to an uptrend in the near future increases.
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The HA-High ~ DOM(60) range represents the high point zone.
Therefore, when the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range is formed, you should focus on finding the timing to sell.
If the price rises above the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend.
Since this stepwise uptrend corresponds to the formation of a high point that will eventually lead to a downtrend, it would not be surprising at all if it were to fall at any time.
Therefore, while you can buy from a day trading perspective when the price rises after finding support in the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range, caution is required during trading as a quick response is necessary.
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Although I have explained various indicators above, what we must focus on is confirming whether support is being maintained.
In other words, the core of trading lies in verifying whether support or resistance is being encountered at the point where each indicator is generated, and responding accordingly.
However, regarding how to select the timing of a trade, understanding the meaning of each indicator will reduce the difficulty of making a choice.
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1. You must not forget that the start of a trade—that is, the buying time—is when the price shows signs of support near the DOM (-60) and HA-Low indicators,
2. The end of a trade—that is, the selling time—is when the price shows signs of resistance near the DOM (60) and HA-High indicators.
3. You will respond based on whether support is being maintained by the remaining indicators, or proceed with day trading.
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Ultimately, where you start and end a trade depends on your own choice.
Since this is influenced by your investment capital and average purchase price, you cannot trade based on the perspectives or interpretations of others.
The greatest advantage of the cryptocurrency market is the ability to conduct transactions in fractional units.
This significantly eases restrictions on trading.
Furthermore, it allows for the trading of high-priced coins (tokens).
Trading in fractional units enables transactions based on the average purchase price.
This is highly advantageous for increasing your coin (token) holdings.
In other words, by trading based on the average purchase price and selling an amount equal to the purchase principal (including transaction fees), you will be left with coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
By continuing to expand this holding, you can eventually increase the number of coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of zero.
Therefore, it becomes easier to increase your coin (token) holdings during spot trading.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you a successful trade.
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Education
Weekly Review - Internals Recover Before PriceTLDR:
The most important message from the dashboard is that internals improved faster than price. Leadership expanded, participation recovered and volatility normalized while price remains below recent highs. That combination suggests the market's internal condition is currently stronger than the recent price action alone would imply. The evidence therefore supports a regime of Acceptance with Renewed Participation, where market internals are once again confirming rather than questioning the message of price.
1️⃣ What do we see?
A week ago, the dashboard was raising legitimate questions about participation, leadership and volatility pressure.
Today, the picture looks very different.
The most important observation is not that price bounced. It is that the internal market structure improved significantly.
* VIX/VIX3M fell back to 0.86, indicating volatility normalization.
* S&P 500 stocks above SMA20 rose to 71%.
* S&P 500 stocks above SMA200 increased to 61%.
* NYSE New Highs expanded to 140 versus only 18 New Lows.
* NASDAQ New Highs expanded to 174 versus 91 New Lows.
* Advancing issues and advancing volume regained dominance across both exchanges.
Participation, leadership and breadth all improved simultaneously.
That combination is difficult to dismiss as a simple short-covering rally.
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2️⃣ Thesis
The dashboard currently supports a view of Acceptance with Renewed Participation.
The recent selloff appears increasingly consistent with a rotation-induced shakeout rather than the beginning of a broad deterioration phase.
Leadership is expanding again.
Participation is broadening again.
Volatility pressure is easing again.
The market is not simply rising. The internal engine generating price has improved.
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3️⃣ What validates the thesis?
The thesis remains valid if:
* VIX/VIX3M remains below 1.0 and continues normalizing.
* New Highs continue expanding relative to New Lows.
* % of stocks above SMA20 remains elevated or improves.
* % of stocks above SMA200 remains stable or trends higher.
* Advancing volume continues confirming price strength.
* Leadership remains broad across sectors rather than concentrated in a handful of names.
In that environment, internals continue confirming price.
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4️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
The thesis is invalidated if:
* VIX/VIX3M moves back toward or above 1.0.
* New Lows begin expanding materially.
* Leadership narrows again.
* % Above SMA20 rolls over sharply.
* Breadth weakens while price continues advancing.
That would indicate the recent improvement was temporary and that internal deterioration is re-emerging beneath the surface.
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Why This Dashboard Matters
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
Most market participants focus on the index and ask:
“Was the selloff meaningful?”
This dashboard asks a more useful question:
“Did market internals improve or deteriorate?”
Only a week ago, volatility pressure was rising, leadership was weakening and participation was becoming more selective. Today, those same indicators have improved materially. The framework allows us to observe that shift objectively rather than relying on opinions or emotions.
Instead of predicting the future, we measure whether the weight of evidence is strengthening or weakening.
I don’t need to know the future; I need to assess whether evidence is improving.
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2. Reduction of Effort
Without a framework, every market move feels different.
With this dashboard, we repeatedly examine the same recurring conditions:
* Volatility
* Participation
* Leadership
* Breadth
* Volume confirmation
This week we did not need hundreds of charts to understand the market. By monitoring VIX/VIX3M, New Highs versus New Lows, % Above SMA20, % Above SMA200 and Up/Down Volume, the market’s internal condition became clear.
The framework converts complexity into a small number of repeatable observations.
I don’t need to analyze everything; I need to recognize a handful of recurring conditions.
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3. Identity Reinforcement
The objective is not to predict whether the market will be higher or lower next week.
The objective is to follow evidence.
A week ago, the dashboard suggested caution because participation was weakening and volatility pressure was rising. Today, the same framework identifies improving breadth, expanding leadership and normalized volatility.
The process did not change.
The evidence changed.
That is how disciplined investors operate. They adapt when evidence changes rather than defend opinions.
I am a process-driven investor, not a prediction-driven investor. Momentum Above Value Area High | IREN Structure Update IREN continues to show constructive behavior on the daily timeframe as price trades above a key volume profile level.
Price is currently trading above the Value Area High (VAH), suggesting continued acceptance above the upper boundary of the primary value area
The Value Area Low (VAL) remains below current price and represents an area worth monitoring if momentum begins to weaken
The Point of Control (POC) sits below both levels and represents the price where the highest volume has historically been transacted
Trend structure remains constructive:
The 10, 20, and 50 EMA remain aligned, supporting a healthy trend environment
The 10 EMA is showing upward curvature, reflecting improving short-term momentum
Moving averages have generally been trending higher since the April 2nd pivot, reinforcing the broader structural improvement
Momentum conditions remain supportive:
RSI is currently near 54, reflecting constructive momentum without reaching extended levels
OBV has shown constructive behavior since April 2nd, suggesting participation has generally supported the advance
What I'm Watching 👀
Whether price can continue holding above the Value Area High
If the 10 EMA continues supporting short-term momentum
Whether RSI can continue strengthening while maintaining healthy participation
Continued confirmation from OBV as price approaches prior swing highs
At the moment, structure remains constructive, with price maintaining acceptance above the value area while trend and momentum continue showing signs of improvement.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. Bank of America: Potential Breakout Bank of America has been grinding higher as the broader market falls, and some traders may expect an acceleration to the upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since early January. The lender ended yesterday above that falling trendline. It also registered its highest closing price in almost four months. Those signals could suggest prices are trying to break resistance.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is nearing a potential “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA. That may reflect an improved long-term trend.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals could reflect short-term bullishness.
Finally, BAC is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 191,700 contracts ranks 20th in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY remains in a constructive trend environment despite today's pullback, with the broader moving average structure continuing to hold.
The 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs remain positively aligned
Price continues to trade above all major moving averages, keeping the larger trend structure intact
While short-term momentum has weakened, the overall trend remains constructive until key support areas begin to fail
Momentum conditions have cooled:
RSI is currently near 49, reflecting a notable loss of short-term momentum following the recent decline
The move from overbought conditions back toward the midpoint suggests momentum is being reset rather than fully rebuilt
OBV has begun to pause, showing slight downward pressure, though participation has not yet deteriorated into a meaningful distribution phase
This creates a structure where trend remains constructive, but momentum and participation warrant closer monitoring.
What I'm Watching 👀
Whether RSI can stabilize and begin rebuilding from current levels
If OBV can hold recent gains or begins showing deeper signs of distribution
How price reacts around the rising 10, 20, and 50 EMA support cluster
Whether participation returns on any recovery attempt or continues to weaken
At the moment, the broader trend remains intact, but momentum has clearly cooled. The next clues will likely come from how RSI and OBV behave as price interacts with key support areas.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. Weekly Review - One Chart -> Market Deterioration or Rotation?TLDR:
The market is sending a mixed but interpretable message. Internal momentum has weakened and volatility pressure has returned, yet long-term participation remains constructive and leadership is rotating rather than collapsing. For now, the evidence supports a view of sector rotation under pressure, not broad market deterioration. The next important question is whether participation re-expands and validates the rotation—or whether weakness spreads and transforms pressure into genuine
1️⃣ What do we see today?
Price remains near recent highs, but the real story is happening beneath the surface.
The latest session showed very weak breadth, with only 30% of NYSE stocks and 23% of NASDAQ stocks advancing. Declining volume dominated the NYSE, and volatility pressure has risen sharply as the VIX/VIX3M ratio moved back toward the critical 1.0 threshold.
At first glance, this appears bearish.
However, the broader dashboard tells a more nuanced story:
* % of stocks above SMA200 continues to improve.
* % of stocks above SMA20 improved over the past week before the recent setback.
* NYSE New Highs still exceed New Lows.
* Long-term participation remains healthy.
* Sector leadership is broadening beyond Technology into Energy, Industrials and selected Financial and Healthcare groups.
The evidence suggests capital is still participating in the market, but it is increasingly changing location within the market.
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2️⃣ Thesis
The dominant message is rotation under pressure, not broad deterioration.
The market is no longer experiencing the powerful participation expansion that fueled the April–May recovery. Leadership has become more selective, breadth has weakened, and volatility pressure has increased.
Yet long-term participation continues to improve and NYSE leadership remains positive.
This suggests money is rotating between sectors rather than exiting the market altogether.
The framework therefore classifies the environment as:
Acceptance under Pressure with Evidence of Sector Rotation.
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3️⃣ What validates the thesis?
The rotation thesis remains valid if:
* % Above SMA200 continues to rise or remains stable.
* NYSE New Highs continue to exceed New Lows.
* Financials and Healthcare continue repairing.
* Energy and Industrials remain leadership groups.
* VIX/VIX3M stabilizes below or around 1.0.
* Participation improves after weakness rather than collapsing further.
In this scenario, the market broadens leadership rather than breaking structurally.
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4️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
The thesis is invalidated if:
* % Above SMA20 rolls over persistently across both exchanges.
* % Above SMA200 starts declining.
* NYSE New Lows begin exceeding New Highs.
* Leadership deterioration spreads beyond NASDAQ.
* VIX/VIX3M establishes itself above 1.0 and continues rising.
* Sector rotation fails and weakness becomes market-wide.
At that point, the evidence would shift from rotation toward genuine internal deterioration.
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Why This Dashboard Matters
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
Most investors see a large down day and immediately ask:
“Is the bull market over?”
This dashboard asks a better question:
“Is participation improving or deteriorating?”
Our analysis showed that while breadth weakened sharply on the latest session, long-term participation remains healthy, NYSE leadership remains positive, and sector leadership is rotating rather than collapsing.
Instead of forming an opinion from price alone, we separate:
* short-term participation
* long-term participation
* leadership
* volatility
* volume
That distinction allows us to conclude that the market is under pressure, but not yet under broad structural stress.
I don’t need to know the future; I need to assess whether evidence is improving.
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2. Reduction of Effort
Without a framework, every market move requires a new explanation.
With this dashboard, we repeatedly focus on the same recurring conditions:
* Are more stocks participating?
* Are New Highs expanding?
* Is volume confirming?
* Is volatility stabilizing or increasing?
* Is leadership broadening or narrowing?
In this case, the framework quickly revealed that the important question was not whether Technology sold off, but whether leadership was migrating into Energy, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare.
The answer emerged from a handful of indicators rather than hundreds of charts.
I don’t need to analyze everything; I need to recognize a handful of recurring conditions.
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3. Identity Reinforcement
The purpose of this framework is not prediction.
It is evidence assessment.
During this analysis, the easy conclusion would have been either:
* “Everything is fine because price is near highs.”
or
* “Everything is broken because breadth was terrible today.”
The framework rejected both extremes.
Instead, it identified a more evidence-based conclusion:
Participation has weakened.
Leadership has narrowed.
Volatility pressure has increased.
But long-term participation remains healthy and sector rotation is still occurring.
That conclusion comes from process, not opinion.
I am a process-driven investor, not a prediction-driven investor.
::: -3.33% - The Start of a Bubble Deflating? I am Out!I am not a perma bear. I believe in equities, innovation, and long-term wealth creation. Markets rise more often than they fall, and betting against human progress is usually a mistake.
But there are times when risk becomes too obvious to ignore. For me, that happened in March 2026. I sold all my stocks because I believed the market had moved from expensive to irrational. Since then, the market has gone parabolic, and missing that rally has been painful.
Even so, I cannot bring myself to buy back in.
So, to see this -3-3% shock today signaled that this might be the start. According to my analysis, a -3.3% broad market 1-day decline is a shock event.
The first issue is valuation.
The Shiller CAPE ratio, which compares prices to ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, suggests the S&P 500 is among the most expensive markets in modern history. Valuations can stay elevated for a while and may even rise further, but eventually earnings must justify prices. I do not believe they currently do.
]The second issue is AI.
I believe AI is a transformative technology. But transformative technologies can still create bubbles. The internet was real in 1999, yet investors paid absurd prices for future profits that often never arrived.
Today, AI is being priced as if massive profits are inevitable and imminent. Yet the costs are enormous: chips, energy, data centers, infrastructure, talent, and ongoing model training. Investors seem focused on the upside while ignoring the economics. AI may change the world, but that does not guarantee attractive returns at current valuations.
The third issue is inflation.
Markets are still pricing in a future where inflation falls, rates decline, and liquidity supports higher asset prices. But that outlook depends on favorable conditions. If oil prices remain elevated because of conflict in Iran or broader energy disruptions, inflation could remain stubbornly high.
Higher energy costs affect transportation, manufacturing, food, and consumer spending. If inflation stays elevated, the Federal Reserve may be unable to cut rates aggressively. Higher bond yields would put pressure on equity valuations, particularly high-growth and AI-related stocks.
The fourth issue is political and regulatory risk.
I see signs of weaker investor protections and increasing tolerance for speculation. Crypto is the clearest example. Much of the sector appears driven more by speculation, insider incentives, and political influence than by genuine economic utility. When regulation weakens and speculation dominates, ordinary investors often bear the consequences.
Then there is the coming IPO wave.
Companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are frequently discussed as future public listings. These are impressive businesses, but they are also capital-intensive, expensive, and valued on extremely optimistic assumptions.
My concern is that if these companies are rapidly included in major indexes, passive investors, pension funds, and retirement accounts will be forced to buy them regardless of valuation. That shifts risk from venture capital firms and insiders to the broader public.
This is often how bubbles end: insiders seek liquidity while retail investors buy the story.
Taken together, I see a dangerous combination of risks: extreme valuations, persistent inflation, elevated energy prices, speculative AI spending, crypto excess, weaker regulation, and a pipeline of highly valued private companies preparing to enter public markets.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe AI profits exceed expectations. Maybe inflation falls and rates decline. Maybe the market continues climbing.
But I cannot justify buying at these prices.
Missing the rally hurts, but I would rather miss the final stage of a bubble than buy into a market that appears priced for perfection.
I am simply waiting for valuations and expectations to reconnect with reality.
If this is a late-stage bubble, a 35% decline is probable. It may be what is required to bring prices, expectations, and investor psychology back to earth. 
Short
Weekend Review - One chart that makes you act with confidenceIn this post, I show that the S&P 500 is not running on fumes — market internals are confirming the advance and the rally has healthy support.
Using the Market Internal Pressure Dashboard, this article explains why participation is improving, leadership is expanding, and volatility is normalized, giving the uptrend real staying power.
And this is why you can act with confidence — because you understand what’s happening beyond price.
1️⃣ What is it today?
The S&P 500 has largely repaired the damage from the March-April stress event and is trading near recent highs. However, the more interesting story is not price itself but what is happening underneath the surface.
Market internals show:
VIX/VIX3M has moved back below 1, indicating stress normalization.
New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new lows.
Participation has improved materially from the breadth washout seen during the correction.
The percentage of stocks above their SMA20 and SMA200 has recovered, but remains far from euphoric extremes.
Leadership remains constructive rather than collapsing.
The market is behaving like a system testing whether higher prices can be accepted.
2️⃣ Thesis
The current market environment is best described as Recovery transitioning into Acceptance.
The key observation is that volatility normalized before participation fully recovered.
Price has returned to the highs faster than breadth has returned to extremes.
This is important because it suggests the advance is not being driven by indiscriminate optimism. Instead, participation is gradually rebuilding while leadership (currently: Chips, Semis, Fabs, AI) remains intact.
The market appears to be moving from stress relief toward acceptance.
3️⃣ What validates the thesis?
The thesis remains valid while internal conditions continue to support price:
VIX/VIX3M remains below 1 (better below 0.9).
New highs continue to exceed new lows with expanding leadership (other sectors joining such as SaaS and IGV recovering recently)
Breadth (% above SMA20 and SMA200) stabilizes or improves >60%.
Up volume continues to dominate down volume over time (effort confirming the move).
Most importantly:
The market's internal behavior must continue to confirm the message of price.
4️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
The thesis weakens if price continues higher while internal participation deteriorates.
Warning signs would include:
New highs stop expanding.
New lows begin increasing.
Breadth rolls over while price remains elevated.
VIX/VIX3M starts rising back toward or above 1.
Leadership narrows significantly (even more narrowed on the AI theme; SaaS bounce fails).
Up volume deteriorates despite stable index levels.
A healthy market can withstand pullbacks. What matters is whether participation and leadership remain intact during those pullbacks.
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Grabbing this chart and using it will do the following for you:
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
This chart replaces guesswork with clear evidence by showing whether participation, leadership, and volatility are improving or deteriorating. Instead of predicting price, you simply assess if the weight of internal data supports the move.
2. Reduction of Effort
The framework trains you to scan the same five recurring conditions every time — volatility regime, participation, leadership, effort, and price confirmation. Once you recognize these patterns, decisions become faster and far more consistent.
3. Identity Reinforcement
This approach shifts your identity from a prediction-driven trader to a process-driven trader who follows evidence over opinion. You no longer tie self-worth to being right on every trade, but to consistently applying a disciplined framework.
I wish you a fruitful and confident week!
Long
Short
May 25 2026 Market AnalysisWe are currently seeing some imbalance on the Macro side. Either treasuries are underpriced (yield too high) or public credit (corporate bond option adjusted spreads) has not yet reacted to the current regime. In other words, the question is which assets are priced correctly, and which ones are out of balance, and what implications that will have for US equity indices?
Global markets are showing preference for safe treasuries and USD - suggesting risk-off, however equities have not shown much of a reaction yet. US indices have faded back to equilibrium while levels remain elevated. We have also seen tech AMEX:XLK fade while healthcare AMEX:XLV has expanded, along with safe-haven sector consumer staples ( AMEX:XLP ). Will a market already rotated into defensive sectors welcome volatility?
On the Volatility side, most of the indicators are for intraday analysis but I figured I'd show the VIX and VVIX levels to illustrate that implied volatility demand ( CBOE:VIX ) remains suppressed yet somewhat elevated, while convexity ( CBOE:VVIX ) is priced low. Will convexity expand quickly if the market begins to realize volatility? Conversely, if the market continues to reject volatility CBOE:VIX down to lower levels, will the market begin rotating back into risk-on sectors like AMEX:XLK , supporting long-equity trades?
Macro Dashboard
FX Dashboard
Stock Dashboard
Volatility Dashboard
Support Zone: 1964.96 ~ 2111.42
Hello?
Nice to meet you, fellow traders.
If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
Have a great day today.
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Among the various indicators set on the chart, the ones we should pay attention to are as follows:
1. Trends that reveal the flow of the chart,
2. Support and resistance points that allow you to set trading points
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The indicators used to indicate the trend are the M-Signal indicators on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Therefore, for a bull market to begin, the order must be M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Since the current order is M-Signal on the 1M chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1D chart, it can be considered a bear market.
Since the ADX indicator of the SBOD auxiliary indicator is located below 25, it can be seen as being in a bearish or sideways trend.
For the ADX indicator to show a bullish trend, it must be located above 25.
In this sense, looking at the support and resistance points marked on the chart, it appears highly likely that the price will break out of the bearish or sideways trend only if it rises above the 2419.83 level and maintains that level.
Therefore, to continue the uptrend by rising above 2419.83, the following conditions must be satisfied:
1. The StochRSI indicator must show an uptrend without entering the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator must be maintained above the 0 point.
3. The OBV indicator must be maintained above the High Line.
-
The next volatility period is highly likely to begin around May 25th.
(The volatility period has changed as a new trend line has been created.)
We must observe whether the price rises above 2419.83 and maintains that level during the volatility period, or falls below 1879.61 and maintains that level. Since a low point zone has formed across the 1964.96 to 2111.42 range, it is a good time to buy if the price shows signs of support within this zone.
However, it is advisable to wait until you confirm an upward trend before buying.
In other words, you should not buy when the price falls within the 1964.96 to 2111.42 range; instead, you must verify whether the price rises to that range and finds support.
-
As explained in the BTC chart section, since there is a possibility that BTC will show an upward trend starting in July, there is a chance of a sharp decline before the uptrend begins.
Therefore, you should prepare a response plan for the possibility that an uptrend might start after the price shows signs of falling below the 1597.76 to 1879.61 range. If the price rises above the 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 range and maintains that level, it is highly likely that an uptrend will begin, so you should prepare a response plan for this.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Are We Sleepwalking Into Another Severe Stock Market Selloff?The chart I am looking at is hard to ignore. The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 is sitting around 41, a level that has only appeared during some of the most expensive market environments in history.
It does not mean the market must crash tomorrow. It does not even mean the market cannot go higher. But it does tell me one uncomfortable thing: investors are paying an extremely high price for normalized earnings.
The Shiller PE ratio, also called the CAPE ratio, compares the current market price with the average of the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. The purpose is to smooth out recessions, profit booms, and temporary earnings distortions. A normal PE ratio can look reasonable at the top of an earnings cycle. CAPE asks a tougher question: how expensive is the market compared with long-term earning power? Current CAPE estimates around 41 place the S&P 500 near historically extreme valuation territory.
That matters because valuation is not a precise timing tool, but it is a powerful risk indicator. The market can stay overvalued for years, especially when liquidity, earnings momentum, and investor optimism are all aligned. But when valuation is stretched, the margin for error becomes thin. A small disappointment can become a large selloff because the price already assumes a very optimistic future.
My own position has been painful. In mid-March 2026, I sold all my stock investments. I believed the risk-reward setup had become unattractive.
Since then, the market has continued higher, and I still cannot quite believe it. I have paid the price for my conviction. That is important to admit because being early is functionally the same as being wrong for a while. But being early does not automatically mean the thesis is dead.
The first major bear-market argument is energy. The U.S./Israel war with Iran has created a serious oil-supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Reuters reported that normal vessel traffic through the strait had fallen dramatically during the conflict, with some crude shipments only recently resuming after long delays.
This is not a minor geopolitical headline. It is a direct macroeconomic threat. The IMF described the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and damaged regional infrastructure as a major shock to global oil markets, with energy acting as the primary transmission channel into the wider economy.
So far, the stock market has largely looked through this risk. That may be rational if investors believe the conflict will be contained, oil flows will normalize, and central banks will tolerate temporary inflation. But I am not convinced the market has fully priced in the second-round effects: higher transport costs, lower consumer spending power, pressure on corporate margins, and renewed inflation expectations.
The second bear-market argument is the AI investment boom. I do believe artificial intelligence is real. This is not like every worthless dot-com company from 1999. Many of today’s AI leaders have enormous revenues, real customers, and world-class balance sheets. That is the balanced side of the argument.
But real technology can still create a financial bubble. Railroads, automobiles, the internet, and telecom infrastructure were all real. Investors still overpaid. The danger is not that AI is fake. The danger is that the market may be pulling forward too much future profit too quickly.
Goldman Sachs recently estimated that AI-related capital expenditure across compute, data centers, and power could reach roughly $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031. That is an extraordinary number. Reuters also reported that AI-related financing is helping drive a surge in U.S. convertible bond issuance, with AI companies accounting for nearly half of early-2026 issuance.
That tells me the AI boom is moving beyond software optimism and into heavy capital formation. Data centers, chips, power infrastructure, cooling, land, debt, and energy contracts are now part of the story. This can support growth, but it also increases operating leverage. If expected AI returns disappoint, the unwind could be brutal.
The third concern is market concentration. The S&P 500 looks strong on the surface, but the strength is not evenly distributed. Recent reporting showed that a small group of large companies has driven most of the 2026 gains, while much of the rest of the index has lagged or declined.
This matters because a concentrated market is fragile. When leadership narrows, the index becomes dependent on a handful of stocks continuing to beat expectations. If Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, or Tesla stumble, the “market” can suddenly look much weaker than the index previously suggested.
The bullish counterargument: Earnings may continue to grow. AI may generate enough productivity gains to justify higher valuations. Inflation may cool despite oil volatility. The Federal Reserve may eventually cut rates. Investors may keep rewarding the companies with the strongest balance sheets, and the market may climb the wall of worry again.
But my concern is that too many risks are now stacked on top of each other: extreme CAPE valuation, geopolitical oil risk, narrow market breadth, AI capex exuberance, and investor confidence that bad news will not matter. That combination does not guarantee a crash. It does create the conditions where a correction can become severe if confidence breaks.
The hardest part about bear-market thinking is psychological. You can be fundamentally right and financially wrong for months. That is where I am. I sold too early, and the market has punished me. But when I look at this Shiller PE chart, the oil shock risk, and the AI investment cycle, I still struggle to call this a healthy long-term entry point.
My conclusion is not that investors should panic. Panic is not a strategy. My conclusion is that the S&P 500 is priced for near perfection at a time when the world is far from perfect. When valuations are this high, the question is not whether good things can still happen. They can. The question is whether enough good things can happen to justify the price already paid.
Right now, I think the market is walking a narrow ridge. It may keep climbing. But if oil, inflation, AI expectations, or mega-cap earnings turn against it, the downside could be much steeper than investors currently believe. Short 
SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)The 10, 20, and 50 EMAs remain in healthy alignment and continue showing constructive upward curvature. The 200 EMA remains below price and is also steadily trending upward, keeping the broader structure constructive across multiple layers.
RSI is currently holding around 68, showing continued participation while remaining in a strong momentum range.
OBV has maintained an upward trend since March 31st and is currently consolidating near recent highs — something I continue watching closely for confirmation of sustained participation rather than deterioration.
One area that stands out structurally is the move through the 694 value high zone. Once price reclaimed and pushed through that area, momentum expanded noticeably and structure accelerated higher from there.
👀 What I’m Watching
RSI behavior for any loss of momentum or downward divergence
OBV participation to see if accumulation continues supporting price structure
Whether short-term EMA alignment remains intact during consolidation phases
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
Current structure remains constructive with trend alignment, participation, and momentum still generally supporting higher price acceptance. As always, I’m not focused on prediction — I’m focused on observing whether structure, momentum, and participation continue confirming one another across layers. Change in Volatility Period: Around May 25 ~ Around June 7
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(1D Chart)
It appears that the volatility period has changed as a downtrend line (4) has formed.
The next period of volatility is expected to run from around May 25 to around June 7.
The most important factor is whether the price can maintain its upward trend above the uptrend line (1).
Therefore, I believe the range from 67720.67 to 69978.65 corresponds to a buying zone.
If a sharp decline occurs, the price may touch the area between 64058.15 and 65776.47, so countermeasures for this should also be considered.
We need to observe which direction the price deviates from downtrend lines (3) or (4) during the volatility period after falling along downtrend lines (3) and (4).
To break out of the bottom zone, the price must rise above 89294.25 and maintain its position.
If the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains its position during the upcoming volatility period, it will be the final buying opportunity.
Therefore, you must verify whether the price can rise above 81447.01 and maintain it.
If you were unable to buy near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, a breakout trade is possible when the price breaks above the 89294.25 point.
However, you must have a strategy in place to respond to up-and-down fluctuations.
-
(1M Chart)
June is a month corresponding to a period of significant volatility.
Therefore, if the price maintains above the upward trend line (1) and continues the uptrend in June, a BTC bull market is expected to begin.
Consequently, we forecast a high probability that the bull market will start in July.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
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Latest BTC News Here As We Dive Into Today’s Hot Crypto TopicsBitcoin news continues to dominate conversations across the digital asset market this week as traders and long-term investors monitor macroeconomic signals and on-chain data. While volatility remains present, the broader crypto market appears to be searching for direction following recent price fluctuations.
At the same time, several blockchain projects focused on real-world applications are continuing to build products during the current market phase, particularly in sectors such as cross-border payments and financial infrastructure.
Bitcoin News Today: What the Charts and Macro Data Are Showing
Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,706, reflecting a modest 0.27% increase over the past 24 hours. The asset maintains a market capitalization of approximately $1.41 trillion, while daily trading volume has declined to roughly $22.93 billion, representing a drop of more than 60%.
Market analysts often interpret declining trading volume as a sign of consolidation, where buyers and sellers are waiting for clearer signals before making larger moves.
A widely discussed analysis shared by traders on CoinMarketCap highlights a recurring historical pattern in which Bitcoin has experienced significant corrections during certain political or macroeconomic cycles. While such historical comparisons are not guaranteed to repeat, they often shape short-term sentiment among traders.
Currently, on-chain data indicates that retail participation remains lower compared with the peak activity seen during the last bull market. Institutional and long-term holders, however, continue to represent a growing share of market participants.
Another factor influencing sentiment is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments in several major economies are still working toward clearer frameworks for digital assets. Until greater clarity emerges, market participants may continue to adopt a cautious approach.
Despite these uncertainties, many analysts point out that the long-term fundamentals of the crypto sector remain strong, particularly as blockchain technology continues to expand into areas such as payments, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance.
Payment-Focused Crypto Projects Continue Building
While much of the attention remains focused on Bitcoin’s price movements, several blockchain projects are focusing on building real-world financial infrastructure. One area that has attracted increasing interest is the PayFi sector, which explores how cryptocurrencies can be used to improve global payments and remittance systems.
Among the projects operating in this space is Remittix, a blockchain platform designed to simplify cross-border payments by connecting digital assets with traditional banking systems.
According to publicly available information from the project, Remittix has raised approximately $29.7 million in private funding, reflecting investor interest in solutions aimed at improving international payments.
The platform aims to allow users to transfer more than 40 cryptocurrencies to bank accounts in over 30 countries, while integrating foreign-exchange conversion directly into the transaction process.
The Remittix wallet is currently available on the Apple App Store, with a Google Play release expected in the near future. The wallet supports cryptocurrency storage, asset management, and transfers, with additional functionality under development.
The project has also completed a CertiK audit and team verification, which are commonly used within the blockchain industry as transparency and security checks for emerging platforms.
Exchange listings on BitMart and LBank have been announced for the project’s upcoming token launch, although final listing timelines typically depend on exchange procedures and project development milestones.
Beyond trading and institutional investment, Bitcoin is also seeing wider adoption in sectors such as gaming, fintech, and online casino payments.
Key features highlighted by the Remittix team include:
Support for sending cryptocurrencies to bank accounts across 30+ countries
A mobile wallet available on the Apple App Store
Security verification and audit by CertiK
Planned listings on exchanges such as BitMart and LBank
Tokenomics designed to support long-term ecosystem development
Where the Crypto Market Could Be Headed
The broader cryptocurrency market continues to balance short-term uncertainty with long-term innovation. Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase reflects a market that is closely watching macroeconomic developments, regulatory progress, and global liquidity conditions.
Historically, periods of slower price movement have often coincided with continued development across the blockchain industry, as teams focus on building infrastructure and products while speculative attention shifts elsewhere.
As the next market cycle develops, analysts expect projects that demonstrate practical use cases and sustainable adoption models to play an increasingly important role in shaping the digital asset ecosystem.
For readers interested in exploring payment-focused blockchain solutions, additional information about the Remittix project and its development roadmap is available through the project’s official channels. Short 
Confirming support in the 0.3410 ~ 0.3614 range
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------------------------------------
(1M Chart)
The target range is around the Fibonacci ratios 2.618 and 3.618.
To continue the uptrend, the price must maintain a level above 0.3410. -
It appears that significant efforts are being made to defend the price since the issuance of the TRX stablecoin.
Therefore, if possible, it is advisable to continue trading by increasing your holdings while gradually increasing the number of coins corresponding to your profits.
Otherwise, I believe it is best to proceed with short-term and day trading.
You must be mindful of this point, as there have been instances of significant losses from altcoin stablecoins.
Since XRP and ADA have also issued stablecoins, you must always verify whether price defense is being effectively implemented to maintain the stability of the stablecoin prices.
Therefore, the best state for coins that have issued altcoin stablecoins is one free from major issues.
This is because if a major issue arises, there is a possibility that a large amount of capital will be required to stabilize the stablecoin price, and there is a risk of price collapse if price defense fails.
-
The trading method involves confirming whether the price rises in line with the M-Signal indicator when it is located near it, and trading based on whether support is maintained at the support and resistance points formed in that vicinity.
Trading timing can be determined by confirming support when the price is near the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
To sustain the uptrend when it rises above 0.3614:
1. The StochRSI indicator must show an upward trend without entering the overbought zone,
2. The BSSC indicator must be maintained above the 0 point, and
3. The OBV indicator must be maintained above the High Line.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether it finds support around 81447.01
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The price is located near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Accordingly, the key is whether it finds support at the 81447.01 point.
This is because if it finds support, it will be the last buying opportunity. - The conditions for continuing an uptrend by rising from a critical point or zone are:
1. When the StochRSI indicator is showing an upward trend below the overbought zone,
2. When the BSSC indicator is located above the 0 point,
3. When the OBV indicator is maintained above the High Line.
Since it appears that support at the 81447.01 point is necessary to satisfy the above conditions, the area around 81447.01 can be considered a critical point.
The next period of volatility is expected around May 3rd.
However, looking at the ETH chart, the next period of volatility is around May 24th; therefore, we should consider the period from May 24th to May 30th as the volatility period and respond accordingly.
As the price passes through the volatility period, you must verify whether it can maintain the price above the 87,944.84 ~ 89,294.25 range.
This is because the 87,944.84 ~ 89,294.25 range represents the previous HA-Low indicator point; therefore, a breakout trading opportunity becomes available if the price breaks above this zone.
In other words, if the price rises above the 87,944.84 ~ 89,294.25 range, it can be interpreted as an upward movement from the bottom zone.
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Price Moving Averages are highly useful indicators for confirming trends.
Therefore, the M-Signal indicator is used to confirm trends.
Among them, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is useful for confirming trends from a medium-to-long-term perspective.
In other words, this is because if the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains that level, it can be interpreted as a high probability of continuing the uptrend in the medium to long term.
-
To trade while viewing the chart, there must be support and resistance points.
Otherwise, you will experience difficulties in proceeding with trading.
Trading timing is determined by whether support is found in the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
Therefore, you must observe carefully when the price is located near the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
-
You can utilize the relationship between the DMI PM indicator and the M-Signal indicator to set the timing for additional purchases.
Therefore, when the price shows movements like (1) and (2), if it appears to be receiving support near (A) and (B), you should consider it a suitable time for additional purchases and observe it carefully.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
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Support Zone: 620.0 ~ 656.54
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(BNBUSDT 1M Chart)
I believe BNB is one of those coins that is burdensome to trade due to its significant rise.
The important zones are as follows:
- 691.77 ~ 793.86,
- 533.90,
- 348.70
Therefore, if the price is within the range of 348.70 to 793.86, it can be considered a buying opportunity.
However, since the price is currently below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is advisable to buy when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator and maintains that level.
If you are trading from a medium-to-long-term perspective, I believe it is a good strategy to trade within the 348.70 ~ 793.86 range to increase the number of coins held for profit.
This is because the price is currently high due to significant gains.
-
(1W Chart)
Since the HA-Low indicator has formed at the 656.54 point, it is considered a buying opportunity if the price finds support in this vicinity.
As mentioned earlier, since the price is currently positioned below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you must verify whether the price rises above the 1M chart's M-Signal indicator and maintains the level after being supported at the 656.54 point and subsequently rising.
-
(1D Chart)
If the price shows signs of being supported in the 620.0 ~ 656.54 range, it is a buying opportunity.
This is because this zone is composed of HA-Low indicator points, indicating a low point.
If the price rises, there is a possibility it will fundamentally climb to the vicinity of the HA-High indicator, suggesting a potential rise to the 914.96 ~ 1028.57 range.
Since the StochRSI indicator currently appears to have entered the overbought zone, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, it is advisable to confirm whether support is maintained within the support zone before trading.
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To summarize the above:
1. It is a buying opportunity when the price finds support in the 620.0 ~ 656.54 range.
2. If the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains that level, there is a possibility that a mid-to-long-term uptrend will begin; therefore, you should prepare a response plan for this.
In other words, to buy stably, it is advisable to confirm that the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains that level.
The core of a trading strategy is to proceed according to a plan for managing investment funds based on the investment period you have set.
In this sense, the essence of a trading strategy is to realize profits according to your investment timeline by buying when the time is right and selling when the time is right.
There are two methods for realizing profits:
1. Earning cash profit, and
2. Keeping the coins corresponding to the profit.
When trading from a mid-to-long-term perspective, method 2—keeping the coins corresponding to the profit to increase the number of coins held—is useful.
In particular, for coins that are maintaining high prices due to significant gains, the method of "2. Keeping the coins corresponding to the profit" is quite useful for continuing trading.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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