Economic Cycles
RBOB Gasoline | Is Wave III About to Begin?Under the aggressive scenario, we consider Waves (I) and (II) to represent the largest degree in the current count. Following a major correction in the previous cycle, the market entered a new bullish phase. From our perspective, the price action at the beginning of 2026 can be interpreted as a sharp and fast Classic Impulse, potentially forming Wave I of this new degree.
At present, Wave II has reached the vicinity of Wave 4 of the initial impulse. This is an important structural area and coul
CYCLE 5 QUESTIONI have been using the Nikkei comparison for one reason: not to claim that Bitcoin has to copy another market, but to understand where the current structure may sit inside a much longer cycle.
The similarity is not in individual candles. It is in the sequence.
Nikkei moved through four distinct expansion and reset phases before the final acceleration of Cycle 5. Each cycle pushed price into the same rising long term structure, followed by another period of weakness, doubt and rebuilding. The im
SHORT GOLD- We have left a lot of Low resistance liquidity back down towards Monthly FVG.
- Monthly FVG needs to get tapped.
- Yes the institutions were building their Long term positions here thus we saw this rise. Which will trap short term retail traders and hedge funds here.
- Once buyside liquidity gets taken out, a lot of retail traders will look at this as a breakout and buy here very heavily, including many large funds.
- Once a lot of liquidity has been generated, price will crash back down.
-
Crude Oil: Is a Larger Wave III Beginning?From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure suggests that Waves I and II of the current degree may be complete, placing the market at a critical stage.
Wave I developed as a five-wave Impulse, followed by Wave II unfolding as a corrective structure. Therefore, under the aggressive scenario, the current structure may be preparing to enter Wave III, which, if confirmed, would be expected to develop with greater strength and momentum than the initial wave.
The initial advance from the
DXY | The Diagonal Test DXY | The Diagonal Test 🌀
In this update, our focus remains on the Aggressive Scenario—a higher-degree interpretation in which the recent structure may represent either Wave (C) or Wave (III).
A closer examination of the 4-hour chart suggests that the current structure could initially be interpreted as a Double Zigzag. However, the ongoing price development also raises the possibility that the market is building a Leading Diagonal.
At this stage, the more compelling structural interpretation
Dow Jones | Is the Fifth Wave Expanding?Wave (IV) in pink, the highest degree of this structure, ended in March 2009. From that point, the market entered a structure that may be the beginning of Wave (V) of the highest degree.
In equities, an extended fifth wave is also possible. So the key question is this:
We were looking for an Impulse pattern, where V? in turquoise was expected to mark the end of the structure. But what does the equality with the initial wave tell us?
Are we dealing with an extended fifth wave, or is the curren
NQ Weekly Outlook: 10–14 August 2026The Fringe Cycles model read for the coming week suggests a mixed structure: positive early, alternating tendencies through the middle of the week, and a more negative structure developing into Thursday and Friday.
This outlook is based on the NQ Globex session, not only regular cash-session price action. Each daily bias applies approximately from 18:30 Eastern on the previous evening through 15:30 Eastern on the stated trading day. For evaluation, each daily bias is measured from the 18:30 Eas
Symmetry <Danger Zones>BTC follows Symmetry
just wait for entry signal
Price symmetry refers to comparing the size of past and current price movements to identify balance or repeating patterns.
It assumes that the market tends to make similar upward and downward moves in terms of price distance (such as wave length or correction size).
Analysts measure previous price swings and compare them with the current move to identify potential reversal or continuation points.
₿ Bitcoin | The Structure Must ConfirmConservative Scenario — Wave (II) Complete or Correction Still Developing?
In the Conservative Scenario, the current structure may indicate that a Double Zigzag has been completed and Wave (II) may have ended. However, this count still requires confirmation through price action and wave structure.
To confirm the completion of Wave (II), we would expect the market to develop impulsive price action—preferably a valid Impulse pattern, or structures such as a Leading Diagonal or nested 1–2 and 1–2
##Leading Diagonal Completed | What Is Silver Telling Us Next?# Silver | U.S. Dollar — XAGUSD
Following the previous analysis, the price structure has now provided us with stronger evidence.
The **Leading Diagonal** that we previously considered as one of the primary aggressive scenarios has now completed with a valid **5-3-5-3-5 structure**, remaining consistent with the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
Therefore, the possibility of facing a **larger correction** from this area has become increasingly important.
The current price ac
XAUUSD | Bullish Breakout with Upside PotentialThe price has broken above the descending channel and is now retesting the breakout area as support. As long as the price holds above this level, I expect the bullish momentum to continue toward the marked resistance zone.
Entry: Current price or after a confirmed retest.
Stop Loss: Below the highlighted support area.
Target: 4839.89.
This setup is based on market structure, channel breakout, and support/resistance analysis. Always wait for confirmation and apply proper risk management.
Gold | Tracking Wave IV Before the Next Major MoveGold | Tracking Wave IV Before the Next Major Move
XAUUSD | 4H Elliott Wave Update
Based on the Elliott Wave Principle, two primary structural scenarios currently best fit the market. These represent our current interpretation of price behavior and will be reviewed as new structural evidence emerges.
In the aggressive scenario, Wave A is considered complete as a Leading Diagonal. The Base Channel has been drawn solely to evaluate the first impulsive advance of Wave B. If this structure remains
Bitcoin: Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag? | Elliott Wave AnalysisIn this analysis, the primary focus is identifying the corrective structure that has been developing since Bitcoin's recent all-time high. Based on the current wave count and the Elliott Wave Principle, the price action continues to resemble the complex Zigzag family. The key question, however, is whether the market is developing a Double Zigzag or extending into a Triple Zigzag.
Under the aggressive scenario, the preferred interpretation continues to favor the development of a Triple Zigzag. F
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?## Crude Oil: Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
From the largest Elliott Wave perspective, crude oil remains within the final fifth wave of the highest degree.
Following the completion of the larger-degree Wave 4, an entire eight-wave cycle appears to have been completed. The market has now reached a critical point where two primary scenarios remain valid.
### Aggressive Scenario
The bullish interpretation suggests that Waves 1 and 2 of Wave 3—within the larger fift
BABA: The Zone Broke Before It WorkedThirty-eight bars ago, Structura Accumulate marked a zone on BABA around 111. Price then did the thing nobody puts in a marketing screenshot: it fell straight through, to 92.50.
Today it trades near 127.
Read that sequence honestly, because it is the whole lesson.
A zone is not a floor. It marks where a market is rebuilding structure around a long-anchored reference - not a level that holds. The 20% drawdown below the zone was not the tool being wrong. It was the test running, and the first
ADA Analyses-13, [July 21, 2026]Welcome to my page! I share daily technical analyses of crypto assets and other charts here.
BINANCE:ADAUSDT
💡Market Analysis:
ADA has broken above the descending trendline and key resistance level with a strong bullish momentum candle. A successful retest of this key level will confirm the continuation of the upward trend toward the next resistance targets.
Key Support & Resistance:
Key Resistance: 0.1943 - 0.2262
Key Support Area: 0.1735 (Key Level) / 0.1560
🎯 Trade Entry & Exit P
Price Discovery — Where Trends Actually Come FromMost traders treat range and trend as opposites — one to avoid, one to chase. They are not opposites. They are two stages of the same process, and understanding how one produces the other changes how every chart gets read.
Two States, Not Two Choices
Every chart is showing one of two things at any given moment: a market negotiating, or a market discovering. A range is negotiation — neither side has enough conviction to push price beyond the current boundaries, so price oscillates while parti
$XAUUSD | Is Wave IV Taking Shape?Gold’s larger structure is currently at a critical stage.
At this point, only a decisive break above the current all-time high, followed by a clearly impulsive structure, can confirm the continuation of the broader bullish trend. A brief breakout alone is not enough — the internal structure of the move after the breakout is equally important.
Until then, the main priority is to observe price behavior and evaluate the possibility of a corrective structure developing.
According to the Guideline
Silver (SI1!) | Elliott Wave Structure and the Paths AheadSilver (SI1!) | Elliott Wave Structure and the Paths Ahead
Silver’s long-term structure remains focused on the aggressive Elliott Wave scenario, shown by the blue path.
Under this count, Silver may have completed a major Wave 1 at the 2011 peak, followed by a deep and complex Wave 2 correction. The current advance may now be the early stage of a larger Wave 3.
However, a bullish structure does not mean price must move higher without corrections. From here, Silver may form a small short-term c
Bitcoin Momentum Update #4: Back Above NeutralBitcoin Daily Time Series Momentum has moved back above the neutral 1.0 level and is currently reading approximately 1.01 .
After recovering from the lower reference zone near 0.8, momentum spent several weeks moving around the neutral level. The latest reading shows another move into positive territory.
What has changed?
Short-term daily momentum is once again slightly stronger than its longer-term momentum baseline.
The important question now is whether momentum can remain above 1.0
AUD/USD Weekly | Two Valid Elliott Wave ScenariosAUD/USD Weekly Chart | Elliott Wave Principle
The weekly structure continues to support two valid scenarios for the larger-degree Wave (B). Until the market provides additional evidence, both scenarios remain valid under the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
Since this chart represents the relative value of the Australian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar, prolonged one-directional trends are generally less common than in many other markets. Monetary policy, interest rates, infl























