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SpaceX Returns to $135: What Would Confirm a Recovery?Hey traders, quick one here.
Many of you are probably wondering whether SpaceX is becoming a value buy after falling back towards its $135 IPO offer price.
Well let's examine several moving parts here...
There is a structural source of demand behind the stock.
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 on 7 July, meaning funds that track the index are required to hold it. This includes index products used within some retirement accounts, although it does not mean every 401(k) is automatically buying SpaceX.
That demand may provide support, but it does not settle the valuation question.
SpaceX does not currently have a meaningful positive P/E ratio
It reported a net loss of approximately $4.94 billion in 2025, followed by another $4.28 billion loss during the first quarter of 2026. Investors are therefore paying for the expected growth of Starlink, launch services, Starship and its other developing businesses, rather than current net earnings.
Now that the share price is back near the official $135 IPO offer price, what should traders look for before developing a higher-confidence bullish view?
The $135 level was the price paid by investors during the offering, while public Nasdaq trading began at approximately $150.
The earliest technical sign, in my opinion, would be a reclaim of the declining 1 hour 50-EMA band.
SPCX has remained beneath this band throughout its recent decline, with rebounds repeatedly failing around it. That keeps the short-term structure bearish and suggests sellers are still using recoveries to reduce exposure.
A move through the upper edge of the band would be the first step. However, a temporary break is not enough. Price would need to hold above the band and successfully defend it during a retest.
That would indicate that the 50-EMA band is beginning to shift from resistance into support.
Until that happens, the base case remains cautious. A sustained move below $135 would place SPCX beneath its IPO offer price and reopen downside price discovery.
A confirmed reclaim of the EMA band would improve the short-term picture and bring $150, SpaceX’s first public Nasdaq trading level, back into focus.
Key levels:
$135: Official IPO offer price
1H 50-EMA band: Immediate dynamic resistance
$150: First public Nasdaq trade and major recovery level
- Yang
Is Gold's Low in? This Secret Chart May Offer a ClueHey traders, this is breakdown of why I think Gold has found a temporary bottom here, and potentially, a major low.
Aside from a bullish divergence forming on Gold's daily chart, several ratios against Gold are showing that the yellow metal is priced at a major reversal point.
The main chart in question I'm talking about is - GOLD/XLK, or XAUUSD/XLK
After 10 consecutive weeks of underperformance, Gold is now revisiting its 2021 and 2024 levels of weakness against the XLK.
Both times, gold rallied while the tech sector dropped.
Again, this doesn't mean gold is definitely going to reverse now, but rather:
The conditions for a major gold reversal seems to be in place
On the daily timeframe as well, Gold is forming a bullish divergence against:
The Nasdaq
The S&P 500
SOX Semiconductors ETF
XLK ETF itself
And to boot, all of them are being suppressed by the 20-EMA band.
You can add this to your chart by selecting Bollinger Bands, and setting the basis line to 20 EMA, and standard deviation to 1.
Very helpful in my opinion.
If gold can overcome the 1d-20 EMA band on XAUUSD, GOLD/XLK, and other pairs, I would become more optimistic on $4,000 being a major low.
Again, this is just an opinion using historical behaviors and technical analysis - not financial advice. Trade safe, and have a great weekend ahead!
- Yang
Google Drops to a Key Support at $343: Time to Buy?Following senior AI researcher John Jumper's "jump" to Anthropic, Google has seen a rapid decline. Now we find ourselves back at the 337.47-349.00 zone, which has served as support before - is this an attractive spot to buy?
At first glance, this looks very attractive, even to me. And a further peek reveals a 4H bullish divergence forming at this exact location.
However, the true test is whether buyers actually defend this zone again.
🟢 If Google holds above 337.47-349.00, then this could be a decent relief-rally setup back towards the 365.82-374.07 gap-low zone.
🔴 If Google breaks cleanly below this support, then the February breakout starts to look like a failed move, and the chart gets much less attractive.
Additionally, Micron (MU) will be doing their earnings call tomorrow. That event could be a sell the news moment , especially if Micron does not outdo already positive expectations.
Technically, this is a strong supportive base for Google, but if sentiment around AI disappoints through Micron's earnings tomorrow, GOOGL could be in for some trouble.
My personal take is to wait for tomorrow's Micron earnings before jumping into any hasty decisions. Not financial advice, of course.
I only say this because we are currently in a fragile environment, with a hawkish Fed, fragile negotiations, and an overstretched AI market.
Follow us our take on Micron tomorrow, which could be a decisive factor for Google holding its support.
- Yang Can Micron rescue the Nasdaq?All eyes are on Micron’s fiscal Q3 results after the close, followed by the earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET. This is probably the most important near-term catalyst for semiconductors right now, as it could:
Stabilise the Nasdaq and S&P 500
Bring some optimism back into the AI trade
Or accelerate the current bearish sentiment
However, there is a good case that yesterday’s decline was amplified by panic and forced selling , rather than a sudden collapse in semiconductor fundamentals.
A lot of the pressure came from South Korea, where the KOSPI’s heavily leveraged chip trade unwound very quickly. Margin borrowing had climbed sharply since 2025, while Samsung and SK Hynix had grown to more than half of the index. Once those two names started falling, the pressure spilled across the wider Korean market and over into US semiconductor stocks.
That spillover has now left a possible bearish island top on the Nasdaq:
This means Micron now has two jobs to fulfil tonight:
Deliver a strong earnings beat and positive guidance
Convince the market that HBM and high-end DRAM demand are still strong enough to support the wider AI trade
Technically, Micron is still holding its wider uptrend despite the recent damage.
🟢 Watch the daily 20-EMA, the first area that matters, since buyers have stepped in around that band several times before.
🟢 If earnings and guidance land well, this is where price could bounce if it gets there.
🟢 If the daily 20-EMA fails, the daily 50-EMA becomes the next zone where traders may expect a reaction.
A strong HBM and DRAM outlook could calm the semiconductor trade and weaken the bearish island-top setup on Nasdaq.
However, we have a little bit of an awkward news cycle. Tomorrow's PCE release could turn even a bullish read on Micron into a stall. Even if Micron delivers strong numbers, price could spike and then stall as traders wait for the next inflation print.
– Yang
Bitcoin $80,000 Rejection Idea (Bearish Scenario)Bitcoin just tapped into $80.5K - a critical zone.
It's the lowest point Bitcoin has reached in November 2025 and now, Bitcoin could be rejecting off that level with multiple bearish confluences.
1. Rising channel / Bear Flag - BTC could be testing the top of a channel.
2. Lowering volume - This is a sign of consolidation, and aligns well with the idea of a bear flag.
3. EMA 200 Band (0.25 standard deviation) - Since the Death cross, when BTC taps into this zone, it pivots.
And last but not least, Bitcoin looks like it's in a 5-wave move to the downside.
This bear flag is potentially the 4th developing leg, and if it breaks $70,000, could take us to $50,000 or even lower.
Note: This is not a trade setup, but rather just a clarification of why Bitcoin looks bearish on a technical level. 
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DXY | The hawkish signal with a built-in expiry dateThe June FOMC was billed as a quiet hold and on the headline rate it delivered exactly that, unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Everything wrapped around that hold was the story.
The dot plot flipped from a projected cut to a projected hike. Headline PCE inflation forecasts jumped to 3.6 percent, core to 3.3, while growth was trimmed and the easing language was stripped out of the statement entirely. The 2-year yield led the move higher, equities sold off, and the dollar caught a bid into resistance.
Here is the part most desks are not pricing. The hawkish jolt came almost entirely from the SEP projections, and Chair Warsh withheld his own dot, launched a task force to overhaul the tool, and has said on record he wants forward guidance gone. The instrument that just moved markets is the one he is dismantling.
That matters for the chart. DXY is pressing the 100.00 to 100.60 band that has capped every rally since mid-2025, sitting inside a rising channel off the February low. The hawkish dots give the breakout fuel. The guidance vacuum is the reason it may not hold.
A clean daily close above 100.60 opens the channel higher. Rejection here sends it back toward channel support. The level is doing the talking, not the narrative.
