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BTC Testing 200 Critical Support But It is Likely to Break. Why?# Bitcoin at $76.4K: Bounce or Breakdown After Midterms? Bitcoin is testing a critical technical area following the reported $6.3 billion Binance hack, with BTC falling nearly 5% overnight on October 29. Price has already lost the 50-week EMA near $78,458 and is now testing the 200-day EMA band around $76,445. The Technical Picture There are two possible scenarios: Bullish: Bitcoin bounces from the $76.4K EMA area and reclaims $78.5K, strengthening the recovery case. Bearish: Bi
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Alchemy Markets
$3,600 is Critical Support for Gold if We Break $4,000As sticky inflation drives government bond yields higher, investors are favoring yield-bearing assets (like bond ETFs) over Gold, keeping pressure on the precious metal. So here are the critical technical levels and potential price paths to watch. 📍 Key Technical Levels $4,000 (Psychological Support): Current immediate support area. $4,100: First overhead resistance target (20-day EMA / 1 SD Bollinger Band). $4,200: Second overhead resistance (Local HNS neckline) $3,920: Measured m
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alchemy Markets
Cut Through the Noise (on DXY) With This Free IndicatorWhen the data is messy, I’d rather watch what price is actually respecting. Today was a good example. PCE came in softer, but ADP and Chicago PMI were stronger. Instead of trying to overthink every release, I just watched whether DXY actually changed behaviour. I will always be a proponent of saying that everyone should use a Bollinger Band as their default "moving average". The reason is because price can wick-wack around an EMA, and produce confusing signals. The envelope of a Bollinger Ban
TVC:DXY
by Alchemy Markets
AMD: Wave 3 Extension Could Be Nearing CompletionAMD’s impulsive move higher continues to fit our bullish Elliott Wave structure, with price now potentially approaching the latter stages of Minor Wave (3). The sharp acceleration through $600 suggests the market may currently be completing Wave 3 of (3). If this count holds, we could see one final push higher to complete the broader Minor (3) before momentum begins to cool. From there, the key setup would be a Wave (4) corrective phase. This would be viewed as a healthy retracement within the
NASDAQ:AMD
by Alchemy Markets
1
Gold, the Fed and the U.S. Debt TrapGold is entering Wednesday’s Fed decision with a bearish technical problem. On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD has slipped beneath its 50-EMA bollinger bands and is testing the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Notice how the price remains suppressed or supported by this band (set to 1 standard deviation) on the 4H timeframe nicely. However, the alternative scenario is that Gold may remain supported by its 1D-20 EMA band. 🔴 4H logic reads that we are suppressed in the short term. 🟢 1D l
FX:XAUUSD
by Alchemy Markets
USD/JPY: Intervention Fears Return as Yen Tests 155USD/JPY has come under renewed pressure after a sharp near-1% fall revived speculation that Japanese authorities may be active in the FX market again. There has been no confirmed intervention, but that may not matter in the short term. Japan has already shown that it is willing to defend the yen aggressively, and recent BoJ commentary has also turned more hawkish. That combination is enough to make traders holding large yen-funded carry positions more cautious. The bigger question, though, is
by Alchemy Markets
SPY Finds Support — Now Jackson Hole Decides Whether It HoldsSPY is finding support after its recent pullback, leaving the broader bullish structure intact for now. The more important question today is whether the macro backdrop gives buyers a reason to defend it. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is the key catalyst. The market already expects Warsh to remain firm on inflation and keep further tightening on the table. So simply saying inflation remains too high is unlikely to be enough to break SPY support. What matters is whether he goes fur
AMEX:SPY
by Alchemy Markets
Bitcoin - A simple long term viewOn the weekly timeframe, select log scale and you'll see a rising channel stretching from 2019 to the present day. Although Bitcoin closed below it for the past several months, price has now pushed back into the channel. If it can continue holding weekly closes above the lower boundary, that area should start acting as support again. One technical reason for the recovery could be the 200W-EMA (0.25sd) band shown in purple, which Bitcoin reacted from before reclaiming the channel. ...So wha
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Alchemy Markets
23
Bitcoin's Blasting Off Again! Trend Health & Retest LevelsBitcoin has rallied around 26% in just week after everyone forgot it existed. So how do we gauge whether this breakout is actually healthy? The first thing I’m watching is whether Bitcoin can retest the 200 day EMA band and hold it as support, if we get rejected here. Key levels $80.9K–$82.83K — Current resistance zone and 61.8% retracement ~$88.8K — Value Area High Risk (Possible rejection here) $70.5K–$73K — Daily 200 EMA band and the main trend-health retest $66K — Basing-zone an
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Alchemy Markets
1
WTI - Inverse Head and Shoulders to 100Crude oil could be basing out in the form of an inverse head and shoulders. And previous times at critical areas, whenever the Stoch RSI (4H) is oversold or overbought, there tends to be a reversal. We're now forming a 4H oversold reaction at a broken multi-month trendline. That, plus, we're retesting the green band (4h-50 EMA, 1 standard deviation), which currently signals a local uptrend and should act as support. If price breaks the 87.84 neckline and holds above 85.95, oil is technically
TVC:USOILLong
by Alchemy Markets
VIX and Crude Oil Risks to Watch on S&P 500 This WeekA quick update on our existing channel we've been tracking. The VIX has been in extreme low volatility for 17 days straight, ironically under the 17 reading. Additionally, WTI Crude has an inverse head and shoulders, threatening a breakout (not good for equities). As we head into a new week, these are the technical bearish conditions to be aware of, especially if you plan on holding overnight long positions. Trade safe and take care! - Yang
SP:SPX
by Alchemy Markets
Update on Gold: Macro Bullish Conditions and Retracement TargetsGold has continued higher since we last looked at the 2Y minus 30Y yield spread, and for now the macro conditions are still supportive of the move. Even with Treasury stepping into the long end this week, the yield spread hasn't actually reversed its broader trend yet, while the Dollar is also still relatively weak. So I still favour the upside on Gold for now; although a retracement is nearing. In short - watch the 20D-EMA band, you can get this by using the Bollinger Bands and set it to 1
TVC:GOLD
by Alchemy Markets
Nike: Is the Turnaround Story Finally Being Tested?Nike has been in a multi-year downtrend as investors waited for a turnaround in the business. However, recent weakness from peers such as On Cloud suggests the pressure may not only be company-specific, but also linked to broader athletic footwear demand. In this video, I look at Nike's technical setup around key support levels and discuss what would need to happen for a sustainable recovery: industry demand stabilising, Nike revenue trends improving, and the market regaining confidence in the
NYSE:NKE
by Alchemy Markets
USD/JPY: Is the Yen Setting Up for Another Leg Lower?USD/JPY is consolidating after the sharp intervention-driven sell-off from around 164, forming what looks like a potential bear flag. At the same time, the macro backdrop is beginning to shift. BOJ rate-hike expectations are rising while softer US data is reducing expectations for further Fed tightening. If that policy divergence continues, the US–Japan rate differential could narrow further and support a stronger yen. The key question now is whether price confirms the macro story with a downs
by Alchemy Markets
[Bearish Scenario] S&P Potential Top at This Multiyear ChannelHey all, I'm walking you through a purely technical idea here on the S&P, where we're hitting the top of a logarithmic rising channel that spans from 2022 - 2026. More validity would be added to this "Topping idea" if the price goes on to trail higher, perhaps even breaking above the channel, but ultimately creating a: Bearish divergence Stumbling back into the channel For now that hasn't happened, but it is helpful to see this technical structure beforehand so you won't get caught of
SP:SPXShort
by Alchemy Markets
Bullish Idea - Nvidia W Formation Back to All Time HighsNvidia has seemingly created a W formation (double bottom) which has a technical target of around $236.5 - taking it back up to all-time highs. Most tech earnings have been a blowout anyway, but sold into due to investor concerns with capex and an increasingly more hawkish Fed. But now, we potentially will have a softer fed in the very short term if the Omani-Iranian deal is finalised, giving tech stocks breathing room to move higher. Retracement / cooling nearby: We've run into a 61.8% f
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Alchemy Markets
Gold Breaks Higher as Jobs Weaken and Inflation Stays StickyGold is benefiting from a difficult macro mix: softer ADP employment and weaker ISM Services hiring are pulling Treasury yields and the dollar lower, while rising Prices Paid keeps inflation risk alive. XAUUSD has broken from its short-term structure, but price now faces a choice between extending towards the wider channel resistance near 4,400 or rejecting from the top of its smaller rising channel if inflation expectations fail to strengthen.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alchemy Markets
Alphabet Rejection to $300 Scenario in PlayHey traders, Google is looking like it's primed for a rejection here. There are three main factors: 1. There is a 20-day EMA band here that is currently acting as resistance. 2. This zone is a previous support turned resistance at ~340 to ~350. 3. At $360, that's the top of a daily 20-EMA band. Google has already been rejected multiple times here - so unless that behaviour changes, we have to remain technically bearish. Keeping the outlook simple today - $320 and $300 could be revisited if we
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Alchemy Markets
Why NASDAQ recovered, and how far can this go? [Hint: 29.1K]Nasdaq moved higher yesterday because the KOSPI and SOXX were oversold. I explain this within the first 5 minutes of the video, and also provide some TA for KOSPI and SOXX if you're trading those assets. For Nasdaq setups, go to 5:30 for the breakdown. To be clear, my style of analysis is telling that Nasdaq is still bearish - so while we have a recovery happening, I'd look for a potential rejection: 28.9 to 29.1k zone If that breaks, Nasdaq is showing significant strength, and I would
IG:NASDAQ
by Alchemy Markets
SK Hynix: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Price ActionSK Hynix is providing a useful example of the current disconnect between strong company fundamentals and weak share-price performance. The semiconductor group continues to benefit from strong demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI infrastructure. Yet despite the strength of the underlying earnings story, the stock has remained under heavy pressure. This highlights an important point: markets don't simply trade whether fundamentals are good or bad. They trade fundamentals relative to what
NASDAQ:SKHY
by Alchemy Markets