EUR/CAD Tests a Key Resistance Zone!Fundamental Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, investors are awaiting key economic data from both the Eurozone and Canada, which could play a major role in determining the pair's next direction.
On one hand, the European Central Bank continues to monitor inflation and economic growth to assess the future path of monetary policy. Meanwhile, market participants remain focused on any comments that could provide clues regarding the timing and pace of future interest rate decisions.
In Canada, the Canadian dollar remains closely tied to oil prices, given the country's status as one of the world's largest energy exporters. As a result, any increase in oil prices could strengthen the Canadian dollar and weigh on EUR/CAD, while weaker oil prices may provide the pair with room to extend its gains.
In addition, inflation data, retail sales, labor market figures, and shifts in global risk sentiment are expected to remain among the key drivers influencing the pair in the coming sessions.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, EUR/CAD continues to trade within a broader downtrend on the 4-hour chart, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting the persistence of bearish momentum.
Although the pair has rebounded from its most recent low near the key psychological level of 1.60000, the recovery is still viewed as a corrective move within the broader bearish trend. The pair could resume its decline upon reaching the supply zone between 1.60840 and 1.61010, which coincides with the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively, reinforcing the area's significance as a technical resistance zone.
To maintain the bearish outlook, the price should remain below 1.61148. A break and close above this level could signal weakening downside momentum and increase the likelihood of a broader bullish correction. What Does the Relative Strength Index Indicate for Gold Prices?Gold continues to hold above the key support area near $3,950 per ounce, following several positive rebounds over recent trading sessions. However, from a technical perspective, this resilience and the ability to remain above the psychological $4,000 level may not yet be sufficient to confirm a stronger bullish outlook.
Meanwhile, the $4,200 per ounce area continues to represent one of the most significant technical resistance levels. A break above this zone could improve the technical outlook, particularly if it coincides with the completion of a double-bottom pattern.
This view is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains below the 50 level, a threshold commonly associated with positive momentum. Since March, the RSI has only managed to move above this level on two brief occasions, without sustaining the move.
As a result, the probability of improving technical momentum may increase if the following conditions are met:
Price breaks above the previous resistance area near $4,200 per ounce.
The RSI rises and holds above the 50 level.
Note: Meeting these conditions does not guarantee the continuation of any trend. Rather, it may increase the probability of a shift in momentum based on the current technical landscape. XAUUSD 4H: $4,061 Pivot Back in FocusGold remains within a broader corrective structure, with price recently rebounding from the $3,940–$3,970 demand zone. However, the recovery has so far stalled beneath the former support area around $4,061, which is now acting as resistance.
$4,061 Emerges as Key Resistance
The $4,061.49 level is the most important technical reference on the chart. This level aligns with a major volume-profile node and has repeatedly acted as a pivot throughout the recent range. The price is currently testing this zone from below after failing to hold above it earlier.
Volume Profile Highlights Heavy Participation
The volume profile shows the largest concentration of trading activity between $4,000 and $4,080, with the Point of Control centered near $4,061. This suggests the market is battling for acceptance around a key value area rather than establishing a clear trend.
Recovery From Demand Zone Remains Limited
While buyers successfully defended the $3,940–$3,970 support area, the rebound has been relatively modest. Recent candles show hesitation as price approaches resistance, indicating that bullish momentum remains limited.
RSI Recovers Toward Neutral
RSI has climbed back to around 50, recovering from weaker readings seen during the selloff. Momentum has improved, but the indicator remains firmly in neutral territory and does not yet signal a strong directional move.
Three Levels to Watch For When Trading US30!The attached chart shows the sideways movement of the Dow Jones index from the start of this month through today's trading, within a price range bounded by the 52,000 level as support, from which the price has bounced three times so far, and the 52,850 level as resistance, from which prices pulled back on two previous occasions.
However, we should also pay attention to the price levels near 52,450 for the following reasons:
It represents the midpoint of the current sideways range.
It marks a convergence point for several moving averages, the 35, 50, and 100-period moving averages.
Technically, then, these three levels are expected to serve as key markers for the Dow Jones' movements amid the market's current state of hesitation and indecision, caught between the positive impact of inflation data showing signs of slowing and the negative pressure of oil prices climbing again, up around 16% over last week's trading.
So will the Dow respond to the positive inflation data, or will rising oil prices have the final say?
Will the Nasdaq 100 Continue Its Correction?Fundamental outlook
Technology stocks continue to face a combination of factors that are keeping investors cautious, chief among them the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the path of US monetary policy. Continued strength in economic data or a renewed rise in inflationary pressures could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, weighing on the valuations of growth companies, particularly the technology stocks that make up a large portion of the Nasdaq 100.
Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the upcoming earnings reports from major technology companies.
Management guidance on artificial intelligence spending and revenue growth is expected to be one of the key drivers determining the index's next direction. At the same time, developments related to tariffs and global trade remain potential sources of market volatility, particularly for the semiconductor industry and global supply chains.
In addition, profit-taking in semiconductor stocks, which have been the primary driver of the AI-led rally over recent months, has added further pressure on the Nasdaq. This comes as investors increasingly question whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure can generate returns that justify current elevated valuations. At the same time, some investors have begun shifting their attention toward cloud computing companies and hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, as potential beneficiaries of the next phase of AI, with the market's focus gradually moving from building AI infrastructure to generating revenue from AI applications.
Technical Outlook
The Nasdaq is trading within a downtrend, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting continued bearish momentum and seller dominance in the short term. Traders are closely watching the 28,187.67 level, which has served as a key support level since June 26, 2026. A confirmed break and close below this level could open the door for further selling pressure and a decline toward lower price levels. Nasdaq 100 4H: Symmetrical Triangle Near a Decision Point!The Nasdaq 100 (US100) remains confined within a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs forming since the June peak while rising support continues to contain recent pullbacks. Price action remains compressed as the pattern approaches its apex, suggesting the market is awaiting a clearer directional catalyst.
Support Trendline Returns to Focus
Recent price action has rotated lower following another unsuccessful attempt to challenge the upper boundary of the triangle. The index is now trading near 29,340, bringing the ascending support trendline back into focus as the nearest key technical support level.
Bollinger Bands Reflect Ongoing Consolidation
Price is trading close to the middle Bollinger Band (29,504) after losing momentum near the upper band. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed noticeably, indicating declining volatility and reinforcing the current consolidation phase.
30,000 Continues to Act as a Key Resistance Zone
The descending trendline remains the primary resistance level, converging with the psychological 30,000 area. Multiple rallies have stalled below this region, highlighting it as an important technical resistance within the triangle structure.
RSI Moves Below Neutral
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to around 43, moving below both its signal line and the neutral 50 level. This suggests that short-term momentum has weakened, although the indicator remains comfortably above oversold territory.
Market Remains Range-Bound
Despite the recent pullback, the index continues to trade within the broader symmetrical triangle, with neither buyers nor sellers establishing a decisive advantage. A sustained move above the upper boundary of the pattern could indicate strengthening bullish momentum and shift attention toward higher resistance levels. Conversely, if the ascending support trendline fails to hold, downside pressure could increase, bringing lower support areas into focus. Until either scenario develops, price action may continue to fluctuate within the current range. Silver Remains Under Pressure Amid Ongoing Price Decline!Silver prices are currently trading near a key technical support zone while remaining below the 100-period moving average, reflecting the continuation of bearish pressure.
Silver has declined by approximately 4.6% since the beginning of this week, 2.5% since the start of July, and is now down by more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
The main factors behind this decline can be summarized as follows:
Rising concerns that inflation could accelerate again, weighing on investor sentiment.
Higher oil prices, which could encourage central banks to keep interest rates elevated or even raise them further to contain inflationary pressures.Markets are currently pricing in a more than 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during the final quarter of the year.
From a technical perspective, silver is currently trading near $57 per ounce, an important horizontal support level that also coincides with the neckline support of a continuation head and shoulders pattern within the prevailing downtrend. A break below $56 could pave the way for further downside pressure.
On the other hand, a recovery above $59.50, where the 200-period moving average is currently located, could signal the return of bullish momentum and the beginning of a new upward move.
Will silver regain positive momentum by breaking above $59.50, or will a break below the $56 support level open the door to further losses? Will USD/CAD Continue Its Downtrend?Fundamental Outlook
The USD/CAD pair has come under increasing selling pressure, driven by weaker demand for the US dollar after US inflation data came in below market expectations. This reinforced investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward easing monetary policy in the coming months if inflationary pressures continue to moderate.
Markets are now turning their attention to a series of key economic events that could influence the pair. Investors are awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which serves as an early indicator of inflation trends. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that inflation remains persistent, supporting the US dollar and limiting its recent weakness. Conversely, a softer-than-expected reading could strengthen market bets on future Fed rate cuts, putting additional pressure on the greenback.
Meanwhile, markets are also awaiting the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, along with the Monetary Policy Report and the Governor’s press conference. A more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada could provide further support to the Canadian dollar, increasing downside pressure on USD/CAD. On the other hand, a more dovish stance could allow the pair to stage a corrective rebound. In addition, investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony for any fresh clues regarding the future direction of US monetary policy.
Technical Outlook
USD/CAD had been trading within a well-defined uptrend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, highlighted by the green markers on the chart. However, the trend shifted after the pair broke below 1.42016, which represented the last Higher Low in the bullish market structure. This break signaled a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend.
The continued formation of lower highs and lower lows has since confirmed the bearish structure and highlighted the ongoing weakness of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
From a short-term perspective, the pair could witness a corrective rebound toward the highlighted supply zone between 1.41475 and 1.41581 before potentially resuming its downward trend, provided bearish momentum remains intact and selling pressure on the US dollar persists.
On the upside, 1.41747 represents the latest Lower High within the current bearish structure. A break and sustained close above this level would signal a shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure, invalidating the bearish scenario and opening the door for further upside. Nasdaq Faces Inflation Concerns!The Nasdaq Index is currently trading within a pivotal price zone that could serve as the starting point for a significant move in the coming sessions. But what could trigger such a move, and what technical and fundamental factors support this scenario?
Let's take a look at the key observations on the chart:
1- The Nasdaq continues to trade sideways but remains below the key resistance level around 29,850.
2- On the downside, a strong support zone has formed near 29,100, which has successfully contained selling pressure in recent sessions.
3- In addition, the 200-period moving average is positioned close to the 29,850 resistance area, reinforcing its importance as a major technical barrier.
On the fundamental side, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 20% tariff on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a measure that could increase global energy transportation and trade costs if implemented.
At the same time, markets are awaiting the release of the U.S. inflation data, while expectations continue to shift toward interest rates remaining higher for longer. Together, these factors could trigger heightened volatility and stronger price movements across financial markets.
Will the Nasdaq break above the 29,850 resistance level, or will it fall below the 29,100 support level? GBP/USD 4H: Breaks Below Key Volume SupportGBP/USD had been respecting a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, with a series of higher highs and higher lows supporting the recovery from the June low. However, after failing to sustain momentum near the channel highs around 1.3450, the pair turned lower and has now broken below the lower boundary of the channel.
1.3388 Becomes Key Resistance
The most important level on the chart is the 1.3388 Point of Control (POC), marked by the bold black horizontal line. This level represents the highest concentration of trading activity within the visible range and has acted as a major area of market acceptance.
Price is now trading below the POC, indicating that sellers have pushed the market beneath a key value area. As long as GBP/USD remains below 1.3388, this level is likely to act as resistance rather than support.
High-Volume Area
The Volume Profile shows a substantial concentration of trading activity between 1.3360 and 1.3400, highlighting this region as an institutional fair-value area.
The recent break below this zone suggests the market is moving away from a previously balanced area and could begin searching for liquidity at lower price levels.
Low-Volume Zone Below Current Price
One notable feature of the Volume Profile is the relatively thin volume area between 1.3250 and 1.3300. This low-volume pocket represents a region where relatively little trading activity has taken place.
If bearish pressure continues, price could move through this area more quickly due to the lack of significant historical participation compared with the higher-volume zone above.
RSI Supports the Shift in Momentum
The RSI is currently around 43.8, below both the neutral 50 level and its moving average. Momentum has clearly weakened from the highs seen earlier in July, suggesting that bullish control has faded.
Importantly, the RSI is not yet in oversold territory, indicating there is still room for further downside before momentum reaches extreme levels. Will the Dow Jones Correction Continue?Fundamental Outlook
The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to trade near record highs, supported by the resilience of the US economy and optimistic investor sentiment. However, markets are closely watching several key catalysts this week that could determine the index's next direction.
The primary focus is on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the inflation outlook and, consequently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, while softer inflation could strengthen expectations for future rate cuts, supporting investor appetite for equities.
Markets are also entering the second-quarter earnings season, beginning with major US banks. Investors will closely assess corporate earnings and forward guidance to determine whether profit growth remains strong enough to justify current market valuations.
Meanwhile, developments surrounding trade policy and tariffs continue to represent a potential source of market volatility, particularly if new measures increase corporate costs or weigh on global economic growth.
Overall, the Dow Jones outlook remains dependent on upcoming economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, corporate earnings, and the latest geopolitical developments.
Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones recently declined on the 4-hour chart, establishing a swing low at 52,056.59, suggesting that the short-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the latest swing high to the recent swing low indicates that the index could stage a corrective rebound toward the supply zone between the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, before potentially resuming its decline toward 52,361 over the short-to-medium term.
On the other hand, if price manages to break above 53,347.08 and secure a 4-hour close above this level, the bearish scenario would be invalidated, opening the door for the broader uptrend to resume and potentially establish fresh record highs. Gold 4H: Tests Key SupportGold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, defined by a descending trendline connecting successive lower highs and an ascending trendline connecting successive higher lows. The convergence of these two boundaries is compressing price action into an increasingly tighter range.
4,073 as the Primary Pivot
The 4,073 level represents a significant technical pivot point, coinciding with a prominent volume profile node. This zone has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance, and price is currently consolidating around it, making it the market's key reference level in the near term.
Ascending Trendline Support Under Pressure
Price has pulled back to retest the rising support trendline, which has previously attracted buying interest during earlier corrections. The outcome of this retest will help determine whether the trendline can continue to support the broader consolidation structure.
Volume Profile Highlights a High-Acceptance Zone
The volume profile reveals substantial trading activity concentrated between 4,050 and 4,120, with the highest participation centered around the 4,073 pivot. This distribution suggests the market is currently trading within an area of strong price acceptance.
Momentum Eases Toward Neutral
The RSI has declined to around 44, reflecting a moderation in bullish momentum following the early-July rebound. While momentum has softened, the RSI remains above oversold territory, suggesting the current pullback appears corrective rather than signaling an extreme bearish move. Is Nasdaq Forming a Bear Trap?The Nasdaq Index is currently trading near a pivotal price zone that could determine its next major move. This area may serve as the launching point for a strong bullish wave if key technical conditions are met. So, what supports this scenario?
Key observations from the chart
The Nasdaq broke below a key support level near 29,000 (Low 1 on the chart).
It then extended its decline and broke another important support level near 28,870 (Low 2).
From a technical perspective, the index was expected to continue falling after breaking these support levels. Instead, buyers quickly regained control, allowing prices to recover sharply.
The rebound has so far stalled near a previous resistance area, represented by High 3 on the chart, around 29,900.
Is a Bear Trap Developing?
The Nasdaq may be forming a bear trap, a bullish technical pattern that occurs when a downside breakout fails and sellers become trapped as prices reverse higher.
Confirmation of this scenario would require the index to break above and establish sustained trading above the 29,900 resistance level. This area is particularly important because it also coincides with the 200-period moving average, adding further technical significance. As a result, this level will be closely monitored in the coming sessions.
Fundamental Support
The improving technical outlook comes as U.S. equities posted strong gains on Thursday, led by semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq advanced approximately 1.8%, closing near 29,700.
Meanwhile, OpenAI unveiled its latest artificial intelligence model, GPT-5.6, while reports indicated that Meta is preparing to begin production of its new AI chips in September. These developments have further strengthened optimism toward the technology sector. BTCUSD 4H: Channel Faces First Real TestBitcoin (BTCUSD) is approaching a critical technical inflection point on the 4-hour chart. Following the recovery from the late-June lows, price established a well-defined ascending channel, producing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows that signaled improving short-term sentiment. However, that recovery structure is now being tested as selling pressure returns near a key volume-profile zone.
$62.8K Remains the Key Battleground
The most important level on the chart is the $62,787 pivot, which sits at the center of a major volume-profile node. This area has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance, highlighting it as a key zone of market acceptance. Price has rotated back toward this level after failing to sustain gains above $64,000–$65,000, placing the market at an important decision point.
Price Pulls Back Into Support
After failing to hold above $64,000–$65,000, Bitcoin has retreated toward the lower half of the channel. Recent candles show price finding support near the rising trendline, suggesting buyers are still active around current levels.
Momentum Dynamics (RSI)
The RSI has declined to around 46, moving below the neutral 50 level after previously reaching overbought territory above 60. This shift reflects a moderation in buying momentum and suggests the recovery move is entering a consolidation phase rather than accelerating higher.
Volume Profile Highlights Critical Support
The volume profile points to two major areas of interest:
$62.8K–$64.0K: Primary value area and immediate support zone.
$59.5K–$60.5K: Next major support cluster if current levels fail to hold.
As long as price remains above the higher-volume region around $62.8K, the recovery channel remains valid. A sustained move below this zone would increase the risk of a deeper retracement toward the next volume shelf. The Importance of the $4,200 Level for Gold!The attached chart highlights why the $4,200 per ounce level is a key area to monitor for gold price movements. This level represents:
A horizontal resistance level confirmed by two major price touches.
A descending trendline resistance that has generated several previous price reversals.
The 150-period moving average, adding further technical significance.
These factors suggest that it is still too early to adopt a bullish outlook unless gold successfully breaks above this technical resistance. While the formation of a double-bottom pattern at the end of the recent downtrend and a bullish weekly candlestick pattern are encouraging developments, both signals require confirmation through a sustained break above the $4,200 per ounce resistance level.
Gold gained approximately 2% last week, ending a multi-week decline after expectations for further U.S. interest rate hikes eased, supported by moderating inflation concerns and a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.
Looking ahead, the release of the June Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday could increase volatility in the gold market, as investors search for additional clues regarding the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, potentially providing a clearer outlook for gold prices in the coming sessions. Why the 7,535 Level Matters for the S&P 500!The S&P 500 is approaching the 7,535 resistance zone, which represents a key technical level for price action. The index has attempted to break above this area on two previous occasions. In addition, this level coincides with the descending trendline resistance of a symmetrical triangle pattern and, more importantly, represents the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern. A confirmed breakout above this level could validate the pattern and pave the way for a continuation of the broader uptrend. As a result, the 7,535 level has become one of the most important technical areas currently monitored by investors.
The index gained 2.3% last week, supported by easing expectations for further interest rate hikes in the United States after employment data came in weaker than expected, reducing concerns over additional monetary tightening. However, markets are now focused on whether this slowdown in the labor market marks the beginning of a structural shift or is merely a temporary moderation following three months of strong employment gains. The answer to this question could play a key role in shaping the future path of U.S. monetary policy. Is Gold Preparing to Shine Again?World Gold Council's key outlook for the second half of 2026
Attention is turning to gold in the second half of 2026 as uncertainty continues to surround the global monetary policy outlook and geopolitical developments. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold is expected to trade within a relatively stable range around $4,100 per ounce over the coming months. However, the potential for further gains remains if economic or geopolitical risks intensify.
The Council believes that gold could rise toward $4,500 per ounce, with the potential to reach $5,000 per ounce under more optimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three key drivers: rising geopolitical and economic risks, a shift by central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, toward a more accommodative monetary policy, and continued growth in long-term institutional investment in gold.
Official sector demand also continues to provide structural support for prices, with central banks maintaining strong gold purchases averaging more than 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022 as part of their efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. The report also highlights growing interest from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and insurance companies, reinforcing long-term demand for the precious metal.
On the other hand, several factors could limit gold's upside potential, most notably the continued strength of the US dollar, the possibility of interest rates remaining elevated for longer than expected, and improving investor appetite for risk assets, all of which could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Technical outlook on gold price movements
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a well-defined downtrend on the four-hour timeframe, with prices recording a series of lower highs since May. The descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts, confirming that sellers remain in control of the broader trend.
Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence between the two most recent lows, signaling weakening bearish momentum and the possibility of a recovery, this signal has not been sufficient to reverse the prevailing trend. Gold has so far failed to break above the descending trendline or establish a higher high, leaving the broader technical outlook under pressure.
Currently, gold is approaching a test of the descending trendline around the $4,170–$4,200 area, which represents an important technical resistance zone. A decisive close above this region could pave the way for a move toward $4,300, followed by a retest of the $4,450–$4,500 area if supported by favorable fundamental developments.
On the downside, failure to break above the descending trendline could trigger renewed selling pressure, with prices potentially declining toward $4,050, followed by the key psychological and technical support around $4,000, particularly if the US dollar remains resilient or market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to fade.
Overall, gold's direction in the coming period will remain closely tied to the outlook for US monetary policy, the performance of the US dollar, and geopolitical risks. These factors will determine whether prices can finally break the current downtrend and resume their broader upward trajectory.
