Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to 1.25%! The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday, September 18, marking its highest level since 1995. The decision was approved by a 7–2 vote, with Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting.
The BoJ justified its decision by pointing to the risk of inflation exceeding its 2% target. The move also represents a clear acceleration in the pace of monetary policy normalization, as it came only three months after the previous increase, compared with six-month intervals between earlier moves.
Nevertheless, the yen weakened following the decision instead of appreciating, while the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond declined by approximately five basis points to 2.947%.
The reason behind this apparent contradiction is that markets had already priced in the rate increase almost entirely. The yen had gained more than 2% during September and reached 155.28 against the US dollar on September 3—its strongest level since early August—supported by hawkish comments from Board members and expectations of potential government intervention.
When the decision matched expectations, investors began unwinding their long-yen positions in a classic example of “buy the rumour, sell the news.”
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading within an upward trend on the four-hour timeframe, forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows while repeatedly breaking above previous swing highs marked by the black horizontal lines.
During the latest wave, the price exceeded its previous high and formed a new higher high at 157.851, confirming the continuation of bullish momentum.
By applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the latest higher low at 155.303 to the latest higher high at 157.851, the price may experience a corrective decline towards the demand zone highlighted by the green rectangle.
This area coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 155.848 and the 88% level at 155.609. The zone could attract renewed buying pressure and push the pair back towards its upward trend, provided that bullish momentum remains intact.
The key support level to monitor is 155.303, representing the latest higher low. As long as the price remains above this level without forming a new lower low, the bullish scenario remains the most likely.
However, a close below 155.303 would weaken the bullish outlook and open the door to a broader corrective decline. BTC/USD 4H Technical Analysis: Correction or Breakout Setup?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) remains confined within a well-defined descending channel on the
4-hour chart, extending the sequence of lower highs and lower lows that began after the
early-September peak near $82,000. Price action is currently stabilising near the middle
of the structure, suggesting a period of consolidation rather than a decisive directional
move.
Recent Bounce From Support
Bitcoin recently found support near the lower half of the channel and the lower
Bollinger Band around $74,700. The subsequent rebound has lifted price back toward
the middle of the range, but buyers have so far been unable to reclaim the descending
trendline that continues to cap recovery attempts.
As a result, the recent move appears to be a stabilisation phase rather than
confirmation that the corrective structure has ended.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands have begun to contract, highlighting a decline in short-term
volatility.
Upper Band: $78,884
20-Period Average: $76,793
Lower Band: $74,703
Price is currently fluctuating around the Bollinger basis near $76,793, indicating a lack
of strong directional momentum. The upper band aligns closely with channel
resistance, while the lower band marks the area where buyers recently returned to the
market.
RSI Remains Below Neutral
The 4-hour RSI has recovered from recent lows and currently trades around 46.
Although momentum has improved from oversold conditions, the indicator remains
below the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting bullish momentum remains limited. The
recovery in RSI points to stabilisation within the correction rather than a confirmed shift
back to an impulsive uptrend.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance
$76,800–$77,000 (Bollinger basis area)
$78,800–$79,000 (upper Bollinger Band and channel resistance)
$82,000 (September swing high)
Support
$74,700 (lower Bollinger Band)
$73,000–$74,000 (channel support)
$72,000 (next major technical support)
EUR/USD: The Fed Hikes and Signals More!The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, 16 September, by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023 and after five consecutive meetings on hold. The decision came by a unanimous vote of all twelve members, following a clear split at the July meeting. The statement affirmed that inflation "remains elevated" and that the action taken "will support the return of inflation to the Committee's 2% objective sooner", wording notably more hawkish than its predecessor, after the removal of the reference to supply and energy shocks as an explanation for price pressures.
At the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that the primary focus is on price stability, describing inflation as far too high and persistent at this level for far too long, and noting that inflation risks are tilted to the upside while labour-market risks appear balanced.
The most significant element for markets, however, came from the dot plot: the median projection for the policy rate at end-2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in the June forecasts, implying one additional quarter-point hike over the remainder of the year, with 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike and four projecting two. Projections also point to core inflation reaching 3.4% in 2026 and 2.5% next year, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
This fed through to pricing immediately: the CME FedWatch tool now shows a probability of close to 90% for an additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, the two-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.73%, and the dollar index climbed to 100.33, its highest level since 31 July, while US equities declined. With the ECB's deposit rate still at 2.50%, the yield differential continues to widen in the dollar's favour, pushing EUR/USD to trade near its lowest levels in seven weeks.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, following its break of the ascending structure marked by the two black lines. In the most recent leg, price broke the prior low at 1.15231 and printed a new lower low at 1.14544, confirming that bearish momentum remains intact.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the last lower high (marked by the red arrow) to the last lower low (marked by the green arrow), price may see a corrective rebound toward the supply zone highlighted by the red rectangle, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.15402 and the 88% level at 1.15505. This zone is a candidate area for price to meet negative pressure that returns it to the downtrend, should bearish momentum persist.
The key resistance to watch is the 1.15636 level, which represents the last higher low formed. As long as price continues to trade below this level without printing a new high above it, the bearish scenario remains the more likely one. A close above 1.15636 would weaken this scenario and open the door to a broader corrective advance. Natural Gas 4H: Breakout Retest in FocusNatural Gas has been trading in a rising channel on the 4H timeframe. Price initially broke below the rising channel, signalling a loss of short-term trend support and triggering a move lower toward the Point of Control (POC) at 2.767. However, instead of accelerating lower, buyers stepped back in aggressively at the value area and drove price sharply higher.
The market has now returned to test the underside of the former channel support, highlighted by the yellow circle. This is a classic technical setup where former support is being retested as potential resistance.
POC at 2.767 Proves Its Importance
The most significant level on the chart remains the 2.767 POC, marked by the black horizontal line.
The volume profile shows this as the area with the highest concentration of traded volume, making it the market's primary value zone. The strong bullish reaction from this level confirms that buyers continue to view this area as fair value.
The rebound from the POC is the reason the current breakdown remains unconfirmed from a broader structural perspective.
Break-and-Retest Zone Now the Key Battleground
The yellow-circled area highlights the current technical setup:
Previous channel support failed.
Price sold off toward the POC.
Buyers regained control from value.
Price rallied back into the broken trendline.
The market is now deciding whether the former channel support will become resistance or whether buyers can reclaim the structure and invalidate the initial breakdown.
Heavy Volume Acceptance Between 2.80 and 2.95
The volume profile shows substantial market participation between 2.80 and 2.95.
This suggests the market remains in a high-acceptance area where both buyers and sellers are active. A sustained move away from this volume shelf would likely require a stronger catalyst such as storage data, weather forecasts, or LNG-related developments.
Momentum
The 14-period RSI is holding near 57, recovering from the earlier selloff.
Momentum has improved following the rebound from the POC but remains below overbought territory, indicating the market still has room to expand in either direction.
US30 1D Technical Analysis: Rising Channel challenged The Dow Jones (US30) has broken below the lower trendline of the ascending channel that guided the rally from April through August. The channel had consistently produced higher highs and higher lows, but the recent decline has pushed price beneath this support structure, marking a shift in the near-term technical landscape.
Bollinger Bands
Price has moved below the Bollinger midline and is now trading closer to the lower band, highlighting a loss of upside momentum following the rejection from the August highs. While previous pullbacks into the lower Bollinger Band attracted buyers, the latest decline has produced a more muted response, suggesting recovery momentum remains limited for now.
51,583 Major Support
With the channel support now broken, focus shifts to 51,583, which represents the next significant support level below the current price. This area previously acted as a key reaction zone during earlier pullbacks and could become an important area where buyers attempt to regain control.
Should selling pressure intensify, the next major reference level sits near 49,672, which marked the base of the broader advance earlier this year.
54,000 Remains the Key Resistance Zone
The August peak near 54,010 continues to act as the dominant resistance level overhead. Before a retest of the highs becomes realistic, buyers would need to reclaim the broken channel support and establish acceptance back above the 53,100–53,700 region. Until then, rallies may continue to encounter resistance within the former support zone.
Momentum
The RSI is currently holding around 43.5, recovering slightly from its weakest reading since late August. Although the indicator remains below the neutral 50 level, the recent uptick suggests downside momentum may be starting to moderate after the sharp decline from the highs. At this stage, momentum reflects stabilisation rather than a confirmed recovery.
The ECB Raises Rate But the Dollar Retains the Upper Hand!The European Central Bank raised interest rates on 10 September by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and the main refinancing operations rate to 2.65%, while stressing that geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflationary pressures and that inflation will remain well above the 2% target for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde described the decision as "a no-brainer," noting that it was taken unanimously.
Despite this hawkish tone, the euro gained little from it, as the market had already priced the hike in, and the interest rate differential still tilts clearly in the dollar's favor.
On the US side, August inflation data (released on 11 September) came in supportive of the dollar: the headline index rose 0.4% month-on-month versus 0.1% in July, while the core index advanced 0.3% month-on-month, above market expectations of 0.2%, taking annual inflation to 3.4%, driven by a surge in energy costs of 28% year-on-year for fuel.
This reading strengthened expectations of a US rate hike. Markets are now pricing the probability of the Fed beginning a hiking cycle with a quarter-point move at close to 70% at its meeting on 15–16 September, starting from the current range of 3.50%–3.75%, a meeting that also comes with updated economic projections and the dot plot.
The rate differential between the Fed (3.50%–3.75%) and the ECB (2.50%) continues to work in the dollar's favor, while higher oil prices hurt the eurozone, a net energy importer, more than they hurt the US economy. Any hawkish tone from the Fed this week could push the pair lower still, whereas a hold accompanied by a neutral tone could give the euro a corrective rebound toward the resistance areas outlined below.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a downward move on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. In the most recent leg, price broke the previous low and printed a new low below 1.15663, at 1.15515, confirming the continuation of bearish momentum.
By applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from the last lower high (marked by the red arrow) to the last lower low (marked by the green arrow), price may see a corrective retracement toward the supply area marked by the red rectangle, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.16309 and the 88% level at 1.16412. This area is a candidate for price to be met with selling pressure that returns it to the downward trend, should bearish momentum remain intact.
The key resistance to watch is the 1.16543 level, which represents the last lower high formed. As long as price remains below this level without printing a new high above it, the bearish scenario remains the more likely one. A close above 1.16543, however, would weaken this scenario and open the way for a broader corrective move higher. Will US Inflation Data Support a Renewed Rally in Gold?Gold is set to end the week with markets almost entirely focused on two key events: the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August today and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 16.
The backdrop this time is unusual. Rather than speculating about the size of the next rate cut, markets are now pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. Fed funds futures indicate around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting, compared with approximately 44% at the beginning of August. This repricing followed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, where he stressed that the more moderate inflation readings seen over the summer did not reflect a genuine improvement in the broader inflation trend. Expectations were then reinforced by a stronger-than-expected August jobs report.
Inflation is the key factor behind this hawkish shift in market expectations. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI stood at 2.5% annually, still clearly above the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts expect the August reading to rise 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. An early warning came just one day earlier, when August producer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, pushing the annual PPI rate to 5.4%, driven largely by energy and diesel prices.
This leaves gold facing two potential scenarios:
A hotter-than-expected reading - above 3.4%, accompanied by an acceleration in core inflation, could strengthen the case for a rate hike, push real yields and the US dollar higher, and weigh on gold. As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to face significant headwinds when real yields rise.
A reading in line with expectations, or a weaker-than-expected core CPI print, could support the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting and ease expectations for real yields, potentially removing a key source of pressure on gold ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
From a broader perspective, gold’s structural support remains intact. The metal is still up more than 21% year-on-year, even after retreating from its record high of $5,589 reached in January 2026. The current price action can therefore be viewed as a correction within a long-term uptrend rather than a breakdown of that trend.
Technical Outlook
Gold’s latest bullish wave extended far enough to break above the previous lower high, shifting the market structure from bearish to bullish on the four-hour timeframe.
As shown on the chart, the corrective wave that followed this advance is developing within a descending channel, a corrective pattern that often precedes an extension move in the direction of the prevailing bullish structure.
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the latest bullish wave shows that price is currently reacting from a key demand zone defined by the 0.786 level at 4,331.347 and the 0.88 level at 4,309.904. A rebound from this area could mark the beginning of a new bullish wave, with an initial short-term target at 4,456 and a medium-term target at 4,589.
On the downside, 4,282.530 remains the critical level for the current scenario. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as price does not close below this level and establish a new low on the four-hour timeframe. A confirmed break below this level and the formation of a new low would invalidate the bullish scenario outlined above. 4 Factors Influencing the S&P 500's Movements!The S&P 500 is trading near 7,646 points, down about 2% from its all-time high of 7,812 points reached in mid-August, while still holding gains of nearly 12% since the beginning of the year. This apparent contradiction, a short-term correction within a strong annual uptrend, is the essence of the current situation, making the coming weeks crucial in determining whether what we are witnessing is merely a technical pause or the start of a deeper correction.
1. The Energy Shock Returns
The most significant factor currently putting pressure on US stocks has not originated within the stock market itself, but rather in the oil market. Brent crude rose by about 3.4% to surpass $101 per barrel, reaching its highest level since May, following renewed escalation in the Middle East. This represents a nearly 25% increase in oil prices in just one month.
The significance of this development extends beyond fuel prices: rising energy costs are squeezing corporate profit margins and threatening to reignite inflation at a time when the Federal Reserve cannot afford to be lenient. This was clearly reflected in sector performance, with the energy sector being the only one to rise on September 9, while all other major sectors declined.
2. Bond Yields Near 5%
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose to around 4.84%, its highest level in 52 weeks and approaching the psychologically important 5% mark. Higher real yields increase the discount rate used to price future cash flows, putting particular pressure on high-value growth and technology stocks, which have driven the index's rise throughout the year.
3. The Fed and the Possibility of an Interest Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the 3.50%–3.75% range for the fifth consecutive meeting. Notably, market pricing has shifted dramatically: the FedWatch tool now indicates a near 58% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, up from below 50% just days earlier.
This shift was driven by a more hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, in contrast with more cautious remarks from Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated a preference for keeping rates unchanged. This division within the committee means that the September decision is now more dependent on upcoming data than ever before.
4. Strong Labor Market and Resilient Inflation
The August nonfarm payrolls report was surprisingly strong: 162,000 jobs were added compared to expectations of only 53,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. While this is good news for the economy, it reduces the Fed's justification for monetary easing.
On the inflation front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-over-year in July, with the core reading at 2.5%. Markets are awaiting the August reading, due on Friday, September 11, which represents the most important test just before the Federal Reserve meeting. A higher-than-expected reading, especially considering the impact of oil, could tip the scales in favor of a rate hike and put significant downward pressure on the index, while a moderate reading could quickly restore buying momentum.
USDJPY 1D Technical Analysis: Bears Test Key SupportThe U.S. dollar has come under heavy pressure against the Japanese yen, falling from the 2026 highs near 164.00 to the 153.00–154.00 support zone. The move reflects a major shift in the market fundamentals, as one of the most popular trades of recent years, the yen carry trade, begins to unwind.
As carry-trade positions are unwound, volatility has risen sharply, accelerating the pair's decline. With USD/JPY now testing a major support zone, traders are watching closely to see whether buyers can stabilize the market or if the broader correction has further room to run.
Oversold Bounce or Consolidation
With the RSI falling to 25.05 and price trading inside the 152.00–153.50 support zone, USD/JPY is entering an area where downside momentum may begin to slow. While the broader trend has weakened, oversold conditions often coincide with periods of consolidation or short-term rebounds as sellers take profits and buyers attempt to defend support.
Any recovery attempt would likely bring attention back to the 200-day EMA at 157.87 and the 158.99 Point of Control (POC). Both levels previously acted as support and now represent a key resistance cluster overhead following the recent breakdown.
Support Zone Remains Critical
The 152.00–153.50 region is a significant demand area that has attracted buying interest in the past. The market is currently testing whether this zone can absorb the recent selling pressure and stabilise price action.
Holding above this area could allow USD/JPY to enter a period of consolidation as the market reassesses value after the sharp selloff.
Bearish Continuation Risk
If price establishes a decisive daily close below 152.00, it would represent a break of a major support zone and shift focus toward lower support levels.
The next key areas beneath current price are:
150.00 (psychological support level)
148.00 (previous structural support zone)
New Zealand Dollar Under Pressure! Will the Decline Continue?The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure against the US dollar despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising interest rates to 2.75%, as inflation remains elevated at 4.1% and the unemployment rate has risen to 5.6%, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing the New Zealand economy.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to the US Federal Reserve and its September 15–16 meeting. US interest rates currently stand within the 3.50%–3.75% range, amid a relative decline in expectations for another rate hike. As a result, US inflation data will be a key factor to watch. Softer inflation could reduce expectations of a rate hike and weigh on the US dollar, potentially supporting NZD/USD. On the other hand, an upside surprise in inflation could strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on the pair.
From a technical perspective, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar (NZD/USD) remains within a bearish market structure, continuing to form lower highs and lower lows, as indicated by the red points on the chart.
Currently, the pair is trading within a range between 0.59117 and 0.58017. The 0.59117 level represents an important resistance level, with price remaining below it supporting the continuation of the bearish trend. However, a breakout above this level and the formation of a higher high on the four-hour timeframe could signal a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
On the other hand, the 0.58017 level represents a key support for the current trading range. A break below this level and the formation of a lower low could open the door for further declines and confirm the continuation of the bearish structure. USOIL 1D Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Challenges Resistance WTI crude oil continues to trend higher from the July lows, with the price forming a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The rising trendline drawn from the July bottom remains intact and has consistently supported the recovery over the past two months.
200-Day EMA Providing Dynamic Support
A key feature of the chart is the 200-day EMA at 81.20, which sits comfortably below the current price.
WTI has been trading above the 200-day EMA since reclaiming it in July, and the average has started to slope higher. This suggests the broader trend has shifted from neutral to positive, with the EMA acting as dynamic support during pullbacks.
Price Revisits Resistance Zone
Current price is testing the $94-$95 region, an area that has repeatedly rejected advances since June.
The chart highlights two prior reversals from this zone, where rallies stalled before sellers regained control. The latest advance has brought price back into this resistance cluster for a third test.
Trendline Support Continues to Hold
While resistance remains overhead, the rising trendline continues to provide a solid foundation beneath price. Recent pullbacks have consistently found support above both the trendline and the 200-day EMA, reinforcing the constructive nature of the current structure.
RSI Reflects Strong Momentum
The RSI is currently around 67.2, remaining above its signal line (58.4) and approaching overbought territory.
Momentum has strengthened noticeably during the latest advance, highlighting growing bullish participation as WTI challenges overhead resistance.
US30 1DTechnical Analysis: PPI in Focus The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the broader advance from the April lows. However, recent price action has weakened after failing to sustain gains near the upper region of the channel around 54,000–54,500.
Price Tests a Key Support Area
The index is currently trading around 52,974, sitting just above a major support confluence where:
Rising channel support intersects with price
The 52,053 Point of Control (POC) sits underneath
A major high-volume area is concentrated between 51,800 and 52,500
This region has repeatedly attracted buyers during previous pullbacks and remains a critical area to watch.
52,053 POC Remains the Key Level
The most important level on the chart is the 52,053 POC, represented by the black horizontal line.
The volume profile shows this area contains the highest concentration of trading activity, making it a major market value zone. While price continues to trade above it, buyers still retain an advantage within the larger trend structure.
Resistance
Recent rallies have struggled to regain momentum above 53,800–54,500, where previous highs formed near the upper portion of the channel. This area remains the primary resistance zone and continues to cap upside attempts.
RSI Reflects Cooling Momentum
The RSI has slipped to approximately 46.9, moving below its moving average (51.2) and below the neutral 50 mark.
This suggests momentum has weakened following the recent rejection from higher levels, although the indicator remains comfortably above oversold territory.
PPI Could Provide the Next Catalyst
With price sitting near channel support and close to a major value area, upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data could become an important catalyst.
A softer inflation reading could support equity sentiment and help buyers defend the current support zone. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could increase pressure on the index and bring the 52,053 POC into sharper focus
GBPCAD 1D Technical Analysis: 1.8600 Support HoldsGBPCAD has bounced from the lower trendline support of a well-defined descending channel, with buyers stepping in near the 1.8600 support zone. The pair remains within the broader bearish structure, but the latest rebound suggests downside momentum is beginning to fade after an extended decline from the July highs.
1.8600 Holding as Critical Support
The recent swing low around 1.8600 represents the most important support level on the chart. Price reacted strongly from this area, aligning closely with the lower channel support and highlighting it as a key zone where demand has repeatedly emerged.
Bollinger Band Midline Presents First Hurdle
The current recovery is approaching the 1.8780-1.8800 region, where the Bollinger Band midline is acting as immediate resistance. Price remains below this dynamic resistance, meaning bulls must reclaim this area to strengthen the case for a larger recovery toward channel resistance.
Descending Channel Continues to Define Trend
The pair remains confined within a downward-sloping channel that has guided price action since the July peak near 1.9000. Until price breaks above the upper trendline, the broader trend remains tilted to the downside despite recent buying interest.
RSI Rebounds From Near-Oversold Territory
RSI has recovered to approximately 42, rebounding from levels near the oversold zone. The improvement reflects a reduction in bearish momentum, although the indicator remains below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting sellers still hold the medium-term advantage.
1.8900 Resistance Zone Comes Into Focus
Should buyers secure a daily close above 1.8800, attention would shift toward the upper channel trendline around 1.8900-1.8950. This area has capped previous rallies and represents the next major test for any sustained bullish recovery.
What Is Supporting Bitcoin’s Recent Moves?Bitcoin has recently gained positive momentum, breaking above the $80,000 level, supported by several fundamental factors that have improved investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.
One of the main drivers has been easing concerns over potential US interest rate hikes, which contributed to lower bond yields and supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. At the same time, attention has returned to institutional flows and Bitcoin ETFs as important factors in determining the sustainability of demand.
Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Maintain Its Bullish Momentum?
Bitcoin is trading within a bullish market structure on the four-hour chart, continuing to form higher highs and higher lows. In the short term, we could see a correction toward the $77,558–$76,990 area, which represents the 78.6% and 88% Fibonacci retracement levels, making it an important demand zone that could restore bullish momentum.
If the price rebounds from this area, Bitcoin could retarget $80,885 in the short term, followed by an attempt to form a new higher high above $82,313.
The $76,264 level remains the key level for maintaining the bullish scenario, as it represents the most recent higher low. A break below this level, accompanied by a four-hour candle close below it, could revive bearish momentum and invalidate the current bullish scenario. Gold Recovers Near $4,400, Is the Rally Just a Correction?Gold held near $4,400 per ounce, after gaining around 1% on Wednesday, as some of the pressures that weighed on the precious metal in recent sessions eased.
The main support for gold currently comes from declining expectations of a US interest rate hike. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated that there is evidence inflation continues to ease as the impact of tariffs fades. Meanwhile, labor market data showed that US companies added jobs at a more moderate pace in August, partially reducing expectations for a more hawkish monetary policy stance.
At the same time, a weaker US dollar supported gold prices, as a softer dollar makes the precious metal less expensive for investors holding other currencies.
On the geopolitical front, concerns over a prolonged escalation have eased, helping limit the rise in energy prices and reducing fears of renewed inflationary pressures. This remains important for gold, as higher inflation could encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated or potentially raise them again.
Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold and reserve diversification remain important longer-term factors. The Dutch central bank’s decision to relocate part of its gold reserves from New York to London amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty has once again highlighted gold’s importance as a strategic reserve asset.
Looking ahead, gold’s performance is likely to remain primarily influenced by US labor market and inflation data, interest rate expectations, movements in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, as well as developments in geopolitical tensions.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within an overall downtrend on the four-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
The recent rebound in prices can be viewed as a corrective move within the broader downtrend, with gold approaching an important supply zone that coincides with key Fibonacci levels. This could increase the likelihood of renewed selling pressure, potentially targeting $4,321.431.
Meanwhile, $4,464.140 represents a key level for gold on the four-hour chart, as it marks the last lower high within the current bearish structure. As long as prices remain below this level and fail to establish a higher high, the bearish scenario outlined above remains valid.
However, a break above $4,464.140, followed by the formation of a higher high, could signal a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish, potentially opening the door for further upside over the short to medium term.
Will Gold Continue to Decline as Rate Hike Bets Rise?Gold prices stabilized near $4,445 per ounce after falling more than 3.5% over the previous two sessions, amid growing market uncertainty driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over rising energy prices.
Although heightened geopolitical risks typically support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, rising energy prices could increase inflationary pressures and push the U.S. Federal Reserve toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance.
Markets are currently pricing in a probability of more than 60% that the Fed will raise interest rates at its September 15–16 meeting, which is weighing on gold given that the metal does not offer a yield.
These pressures intensified following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized the importance of continuing the fight against inflation. His comments brought expectations of further monetary tightening back into focus and weakened the bullish momentum in gold.
Gold nevertheless gained around 10% in August, marking its strongest monthly performance since January. The rally was supported by the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of increased bond buybacks, which helped ease borrowing costs and strengthened demand for gold amid concerns surrounding sovereign debt and currency valuations.
From a technical perspective, gold declined on the four-hour timeframe and formed a new low after breaking below the lower boundary of its ascending channel, shifting the market structure from bullish to bearish.
Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the price could experience a corrective rebound toward the $4,581–$4,603 area. This zone represents a potential supply area where selling pressure could re-emerge, potentially supporting a continuation of the broader bearish move.
For the bearish scenario to remain valid, prices should stay below $4,631.53. A break above this level and the formation of a new high could weaken the current bearish structure. EURUSD 4H: Retests Channel Support!EUR/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the broader recovery from the late-July lows. After pulling back from the resistance near 1.1700, price has rotated lower toward the channel's rising support trendline.
1.1436 Point of Control
The volume profile highlights 1.1436 as the Point of Control (POC), representing the highest concentration of trading activity within the visible range. While price currently trades well above this level, it remains a key longer-term support and value area within the broader uptrend.
Volume Profile
The largest-volume cluster sits between 1.1400 and 1.1560, indicating substantial market acceptance across this range. The recent pullback has remained above this high-volume support zone, helping stabilize price action near channel support.
RSI Recovers
The RSI recently fell toward the 30 level, reflecting a sharp loss of momentum during the selloff from the August high. However, the indicator has begun to recover and is now near 36, suggesting downside pressure has eased as price tests support.
Channel Resistance
On the upside, the upper trendline of the channel near 1.1700–1.1750 remains the key resistance area. Previous rallies stalled in this region, making it the primary technical barrier should the recovery continue.
