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What is a Treasury yield?Last week, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hit 5.23% — its highest level since 2007. Stocks fell, oil rose, and currencies moved. But why does a number on a government bond have so much power over financial markets? Here is a short guide. What is a Treasury bond? When the US government needs to borrow money, it issues bonds — essentially IOUs that promise to pay the holder a fixed amount of interest over a set period, plus the original amount back at the end. The 10-year Treasury bo

What is the PMI and why do traders care?This Wednesday, September 23, S&P Global releases its preliminary PMI data for September at 9:45 AM ET (15:45 CET). It is one of the most closely watched economic releases of the month — but also one of the least understood by newer traders. Here is a short guide to what it is and why markets pay attention. What is the PMI? PMI stands for Purchasing Managers' Index. It is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at private companies across manufacturing and services sectors. These professional

Why do interest rates move markets?This Thursday, the European Central Bank meets to decide whether to raise interest rates or not. Markets are watching closely — and for good reason. Interest rate decisions are one of the most powerful drivers of price action across currencies, stocks, and commodities. But what exactly is happening, and why does it move markets so much? Here is a short overview, using this week's ECB decision as a live example. What is an interest rate decision? Central banks like the ECB set a benchmark inte

What does an Earnings Report actually tell you?Next week Nvidia reports earnings after the US market closes. For many traders it will be the most watched event of the month. But what exactly are they watching — and why does it matter so much? Here is a short guide to reading an earnings report, using Nvidia as a live example. What is an earnings report? Every quarter, publicly listed companies are required to report their financial results. The report covers how much money the company made, how much it spent, and what it expects to happen

Wall Street Reports Tomorrow. Tomorrow is the biggest single day of the earnings calendar so far this year. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report before the US market opens on Tuesday July 14, followed by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. Five banks valued at nearly $2 trillion releasing results in one morning. The numbers are expected to be strong. Total Q2 earnings for the sector are forecast to grow around 10% year over year on similar revenue growth, driven by resilient

SpaceX nailed its debut. Now OpenAI is next Last week we asked whether the SpaceX IPO would add fuel to the AI rally or mark its top. We have a first answer. SPCX opened at $150 on Friday, closed at $160.95, up 19% from the $135 offer price, and peaked at $176.52 intraday — a gain of nearly 31% from the offering price. On its first day of trading, SpaceX became one of the world's biggest listed companies, valued above $2 trillion. By any measure, the debut was a success. But the more interesting story is what comes next. The IPO queue

SpaceX goes public this Friday This Friday, June 12, SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. It is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aims to raise $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in stock market history by a wide margin, more than double the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. The roadshow launched on June 4, and by all accounts demand has been strong. Pricing is expected on June 11, the day before trading begins. What is actually being valued here SpaceX is

Oil's big pullback. One strait decides what's next.Brent crude has had a volatile few weeks. After spiking to multi-year highs above $130 in April as the Strait of Hormuz came under threat, prices have since retreated sharply, falling more than 17% over the past month as traders priced in growing optimism around a US-Iran peace deal. That optimism briefly pushed Brent below the $100 level, a psychologically significant threshold that the market had been watching closely. But the selloff may have run ahead of the fundamentals. This week, prices

SpaceX is going public. Watch Tesla.On May 20, SpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC, officially confirming what markets had been anticipating for months. The world's most valuable private company is going public. The roadshow opens June 8, pricing is set for June 11, and trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX begins June 12. The targeted valuation sits between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, and the deal is expected to raise up to $75 billion — more than double the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. SPCX does n

Nvidia reports on Wednesday. The bar has never been higher.Nvidia reports its first quarter earnings after the US market close on Wednesday, May 20. The number Wall Street is watching is $78 billion in revenue — a figure that would represent roughly 77% growth year on year. Buy-side whispers run higher, with some desks modelling closer to $80 billion, and guidance for the second quarter is expected somewhere between $85 and $90 billion. A beat alone is already in the price. The question is by how much. The backdrop going into this report is as supporti

Oil and the Iran deal: what a resolution could mean for markets For months, the Strait of Hormuz has been the single most important variable in global markets. It has driven oil above $100 per barrel, pushed inflation higher, reshaped rate expectations, and sent equity markets on a series of sharp moves in both directions. This week, that variable may finally be resolved. Reports emerged last week that the US and Iran are close to a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict. The framework, as described by multiple outlets, would involve Iran c

Nvidia Is at a $5 trillion crossroads. What happens next?Nvidia has done something that very few companies in history have managed. It reached a market cap of $5 trillion in April, recovered from a geopolitical selloff that hit nearly every major stock, and is now sitting at record highs with its next earnings report just over two weeks away. The question the chart is now asking is simple: can it hold here? The numbers behind the move are not in dispute. Last quarter, revenue hit a record $68 billion, up 73% year on year. The company guided for rough

Oil Surges as the Strait of Hormuz becomes a blockade The Strait of Hormuz just became something more than a conflict zone. Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed without a deal, and President Trump responded by announcing a formal naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude surged more than 7% on the news, trading back above $100 per barrel this morning. The relief rally of the past two weeks has been fully unwound. This is a meaningful escalation. A ceasefire is one thing. A naval blockade is another. The market had spent t

The S&P 500's best week in months. Now what?After five consecutive weeks of losses, US equities staged a sharp recovery last week. The S&P 500 posted its strongest weekly gain since May, bouncing from the low 6,300s back toward the 6,500–6,600 area. For a market that had been grinding lower since the start of the Iran conflict, it was a meaningful shift in tone, but not necessarily a clean all-clear. The bounce was partly driven by better-than-expected economic data and some tentative signs that a diplomatic framework around the Strait o

When oil crosses $100, everything changes There's a price level in oil that is often seen to change the conversation, not just in energy markets, but across equities, bonds, currencies and central bank thinking. That level is $100 per barrel. Brent crude has now crossed it. The trigger is the US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, with the Strait of Hormuz under sustained pressure. The market appears to be no longer pricing in a quick resolution. It's pricing in disruption, and that changes everything downstream. The knock-on effect

Gold has pulled back hard. Is this a reset or a reversal?Gold had a remarkable run into early 2026. It hit record highs above $5,500 in January, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, a weaker dollar and strong central bank buying. Then it sold off — sharply. The metal has now dropped over 20% from those highs and is sitting around $4,300 as traders try to work out whether this is a healthy reset in a still-intact bull market, or the start of something more serious. The pullback has a logic to it. Gold doesn't move in a straight line, and after such a p

EUR/USD remains above multi-month uptrend line EUR/USD Despite that current price is above the multi-month uptrend line (September 2022 low - January 2023 high), current price remains vulnerable to the key support at 1.0525, the fact that price did pierce below the 1.0525 level yesterday does raise the risk that there could be another attempt for price to test the 1.0525 support. A clean break below the key support could trigger a further downside push towards 1.0440. Bearing in mind that 1.0440 does intersect at 2 technical levels (see

AUD/USD downside risk remains AUD/USD Bearish price trend remains after the break below the 0.6630 key support level. Downside prospects for a further push lower towards 0.65 and perhaps even 0.64 as extension. Upside risk for short sellers seen above 0.6790.

FTSE 100 Index Trending Higher FTSE 100 Index trending higher on the weekly chart; current price is above its 10 week moving average (bullish); both the 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators above zero (bullish); upside prospects for the short to medium term (5-49 days) spotted at 8,023 and 8,203, while downside price risk below 7,742 implies the end of the prevailing up-trend. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.

EUR/NOK can the trend hold? Commentary EUR/NOK multi-week higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicate a dow pattern uptrend; provided price can hold above the 10.9 key support the potential for a continuation of the prevailing uptrend remains for a move towards 11.05 in the short term (5-13 days), otherwise if price fails to hold above the 10.9 key support then scope for a price correction lower can not be ruled out. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EUR/USD strengthens after German inflation data MARKET TALK This mornings German consumer price index (CPI), the key indicator to measure German inflation, indicated that German inflation has increased from -1.2% to 0.5%, an increase month on month Technical commentary: EUR/USD traders seeking a potential short term (14-25 days) upside target could be eyeing the 1.105s (see chart), while short term downside risk remains below the 50 day moving average near 1.07032, if breached opens up the 1.0614 support (38.2% retracement from the 1

AUD/JPY - Can the AUD outperform the JPY?COMMENTARY The AUD seems to be gaining the most against the JPY compared to the following G10 Fx pairs including the NZD, CAD, EUR, and the USD in front of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) interest rate decision. High price action across the AUD cross pairs is expected upon tomorrow's RBA rate decision. Current price for the AUD/JPY is above its 40 day moving average (bullish), MACD above its signal line (bullish), rate of change 13 day above its signal line (bullish); upside p

NASDAQ 100 Index approaching 200 day moving average Tesla, Meta, Google and Disney all higher last 5 days MARKET TALK Big tech up sharply during the last 5 days, are investors discounting the “pending” recession and betting on the strength of the US consumer to support big tech earnings throughout 2023? Tesla: up +9.43% last 5 days; earnings beats the street reported record revenue for Q4 2022 Meta: up +5.75% last 5 days; earnings due out on February 2nd; estimate to earn $1.5 per share against previous actual earnings of $1.64 per share (E

Dow Jones 30 found support, potential to go higher from here?Dow Jones 30 Index The multi-week sideways price action seems to be the consolidation of the October - December advance, bullish conditions appear to remain intact provided the 32,950 support area proves true. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.