Long
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SPI 200 Bulls Tease Break of 200-day MAsAs we’ve already seen a sizeable selloff on the SPI 200 (ASX 200 futures chart), with support found around 8700, I’m seeking another leg higher.
But it is worth noting that corrective price behaviour can be more erratic and choppy than trending moves, like we saw during the selloff. Therefore, we’re not seeking large moves or looking to hang around longer than necessary.
Today’s low once again found support around 8700, while the 200-day SMA and EMA sit around 8810. And with the initial momentum of the day already fading, bears may be seeking to fade moves towards the 200-day averages or last week’s high for a short-term mean-reversion trade lower.
Beyond that, I fancy its chances of eventually breaking above last week’s high and at least closing the gap from the 8894 swing low.
So if we see a move lower ahead of a breakout of last week’s high, bulls could also seek dips while prices hold above this week’s opening gap, in anticipation of a breakout.
A move beneath gap support or Friday’s low makes bullish setups less appealing, while a break of last week’s low could open the way for a run towards the July low just above 8600. A break beneath that would then expose 8500.
MS 
Long
ASX 200 Headed for 8400?The ASX 200 has just suffered its worst week in six months, thanks to renewed bets on RBA and Fed hikes amid soaring oil prices and bond yields. We are only halfway through the month, yet it already seems likely the ASX will snap its five-month winning streak. Signs of a reversal were there, given August’s shooting star marked a failed attempt to hold above the prior record high.
Interestingly, the ASX is narrowly lower over the past 12 months despite a particularly volatile period. The fact we have seen such wild swings around record highs reminds me of the saying, “tops are a process, bottoms are an event”. It also makes me wonder whether we could be witnessing a much deeper pullback. The ASX could fall to 8400 and still remain within its one-year range, so from that angle such a move seems plausible under current conditions — unless a bullish catalyst arrives, of course.
That said, it is not uncommon to see prices retrace early in the week following a sell-off the week prior. That means bears may want to first see whether prices can recoup some of last week’s losses before rejoining the bearish move.
Ultimately, my bias remains bearish while prices remain below 9000, with 8400 the minimum downside target. The March low also comes into view on a break beneath it. Though I am not sure we will see a bounce back to 9000, traders may want to keep a close eye out for reversal signals on the daily chart or lower timeframes.
MS Short 
Short
Long 
Gold Pullback Risk Builds Below 4,700 ResistanceGold futures have stalled around the 4,700 handle, with price also running into the 4,712.8 high-volume node and resistance just beneath the May high. Wednesday’s small bearish engulfing candle adds to the case for a near-term pullback, particularly with momentum looking stretched.
The RSI (14) reached overbought territory on Tuesday, while the faster RSI (2) formed a bearish divergence from its own overbought zone. That does not necessarily point to a major reversal, but it does suggest the latest leg higher may be losing momentum.
A shallow retracement remains my base case for now. The 10- and 20-day EMAs are the first areas to watch, while the 4,500 handle and weekly VPOC at 4,458 could provide stronger support if selling pressure builds. A move into that zone may also attract dip buyers given the strength of the broader trend.
Bears may therefore look to fade rallies back towards the May high, while bulls will want to see a clean break above that resistance before assuming the next leg higher is underway. If that happens, the 4,918 April high comes back into focus, followed by the psychological 5,000 handle.
MS Short 
Short
Short
Long
Long
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Short
