Page 6 | Ideas and Forecasts on Stocks — Portugal — TradingView

Capital rotation If you follow my trades you know I was bearish US tech stocks before the drop. I’ve recently been selling my gold as it was breaking all time highs. I was positioned in European stocks like Nestle, which I have mostly exited now. JDEP is another swing trade I entered, I still believe there’s more room to the upside here. This was my inverse coffee bean play and it’s been working out perfectly. Trailing stop loss is a useful risk management tool.

$ASML: Is the stock primed for upside? Indicators are aligned.NASDAQ:ASML is one of the very few semis cap equipment cos. which have not broken out of their previous ATH. The stock is still at lower bound of the upward slopping channel which we have been following for a few months in this blog. IN this chart below we are following a combination of various technical indicators to see the path of least resistance for the stock. The stock every time bounces back from the lower bound of the upward slopping fib retracement channel. During the 2022 bear market the stock made lower lows and after 5th leg of the bearish pattern on the Elliot’s wave the stock finally made its lows after 329 days of trading and down almost 50%. From its lows it also perfectly followed a textbook rally in 5 legs perfectly matching a bullish Eliots wave pattern before reaching ATH of 1030 $. The recent drawdown on the stock also happened when the stock went above the channel and was slammed back into penalty box by the sellers. Surprisingly the stock also followed the same Eliots wave bearish pattern downwards and the price bottomed at the lows of the channel now almost 2 times in the weekly chart shown below. Each time the stock had a drawdown of almost 50% in 2 instances. As the stock is going sideways for quite a few weeks we can expect some bullish price action with 980 $ in the upper limit. Verdict: NASDAQ:ASML in an accumulation pattern. Major upside expected with 980 as our price target.

by RabishankarBiswal

Rubis (RUI:EPA) - A Deep Value Infrastructure Play - TP: 60 EUR 📌 Investment Thesis Rubis is a small-cap European energy distributor undergoing a strategic transformation. Traditionally focused on downstream oil and gas distribution, the group divested its storage business in 2023 and has since begun allocating capital into renewable electricity generation in France, Italy, and Spain. This pivot is supported by favorable EU and French regulatory frameworks designed to accelerate decarbonization. Despite several years of share price weakness, 2024 saw the entry of heavyweight French industrial investors: • Vincent Bolloré acquired ~6% of shares. • Patrick Molis’ Compagnie Nationale de Navigation (CNN) holds ~9%. Their presence and reshffling of the management Board validates Rubis’ new strategic direction and strengthens its long-term shareholder base. 📈 Technical check After several years in a pronounced downtrend, Rubis shares have been building a base since the second half of 2023. Early 2024 marked the initiation of a trend reversal, confirmed by higher lows and improved momentum indicators. The stock is currently trading well below its 2018 all-time high of ~€65, but the technical setup suggests that, upon confirmation of the reversal, Rubis could progressively retrace back toward those levels. A sustained break above resistance in the mid-40s would open the path to a multi-year recovery cycle, in line with the company’s strategic repositioning. 🌍 Macro Backdrop • European equities regain traction: After years of underperformance, Europe returned to the spotlight in 2024, benefiting from capital rotation out of US mega-caps and geopolitical shifts under the Trump administration. • Energy security meets energy transition: The EU seeks to balance renewable capacity growth with hydrocarbon reliability. Rubis straddles both worlds. • Valuation support: European energy mid-caps continue to trade at a discount versus US peers, making Rubis attractive for contrarian investors. ⚡ Strategic & Financial Drivers 1. Shift to Renewables – Through its subsidiary Photosol, Rubis already operates 535 MW of solar capacity with a pipeline exceeding 3 GW, targeting 3.5 GW in operation by 2030. 2. Stable Downstream Franchise – Distribution of LPG, fuels, and bitumen across 40+ countries remains a resilient, cash-generating core. EBITDA for the fill FY2024 was €730m, with the distribution business ("retail and Marketing) accounting for 95% of it.. 3. Dividend Aristocrat Status – Rubis has increased its dividend for 28 consecutive years, delivering an impressive 8% CAGR in dividend per share (DPS) over the past decade. With a forward yield of ~7.2% by 2026, it ranks among Europe’s most attractive income stocks . 4. Strong Financials – Historical EPS CAGR of 9% over 10 years, >100% free cash flow conversion (2011–2021), and conservative leverage (<2x corporate net debt/EBITDA) ensure balance sheet resilience . 5. Influential Shareholders – Bolloré and CNN’s stakes provide confidence in governance and long-term optionality. 🚨 Risks • Execution risk in scaling renewables profitably. • Structural long-term decline of oil & gas distribution volumes. • Regulatory and taxation headwinds on fossil fuels in Europe. • Delay in commercial operation of solar plants 🧭 Conclusion Rubis combines the resilience of a cash-generating downstream franchise with the growth optionality of renewables, backed by a 28-year record of dividend growth. Trading at a discount to peers (p.e. of 8.6x), with a forward yield of 7%+ and validation from industrial shareholders, Rubis stands out as a contrarian long-term income and transition play in European infrastructure.

by diligent_leopard

Keep an eye on DSFIR. This might be a good opportunity DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR) is at a crossroads, trading at two-year lows with technicals pointing towards oversold. While there is bounce potential, the prevailing downtrend demands caution. A patient, incremental approach is advised - small entry now, larger position if signs of stabilization emerge. This is not an “all-in” moment, but a candidate for disciplined, tactical accumulation. I keep this in my potential to invest category. Not moving in yet.

A first target might be 129.30 and then...Another target might be 199.45 that is a Fibonacci level. On a long term basis.

Next target could be 15.380 15.380 being a last higher high. If this level is reached then the next one might be 17.205.

Just Waiting for AF After so much strugling in the base, AF drawing some hopes for the future.

TTE: Fundamental Analysis +56 %With 2024 revenue of 195,6 billions €, Total Energies ranks among the top 10 largest energy companies in the world. EverStock identifies a fundamental revaluation potential of + 56 %. Valuation at 7.3x net earnings Currently valued at 115,7 billions € in market capitalization, Total Energies posted a profit of 15,76 billions € in its latest fiscal year (2024). Balance sheet and debt In Total Energies annual report, tangible net asset value stood at 83,62 billions €, giving a market capitalization / tangible net asset value ratio of 1.38. The gearing ratio is good, at 0.44. (Total financial debt / net tangible assets valuation) Current share price : 51.46 € Target price : 80,12 € Upside potential : +56 % Dividend : 3.30 € (per year) Yield : 6.41 %

Adyen Margin Expansion Expecting salary expenses to flatten more + payoffs from investments made in 2023-2024 to have a positive payout

Exail Technologies European Drone Warfare and Robotics. Exail Technologies (previously Groupe Gorge S.A.) is a French tech company specializing in drones, robotics, and maritime autonomous systems, with growing exposure to defense and industrial markets. It’s on a clear uptrend, sitting well above its 50 and 200-day EMAs with momentum firmly in play. Volume is steady, with recent trading activity picking up compared to its long-term averages, reflecting consistent investor interest. If you’re looking for a high-growth, high-momentum play in the drone warfare / European tech space, Exail is showing strength. Just keep an eye out for a pullback, which could offer a cleaner entry without chasing the current highs. Might be worth a watch.

Airbus Wave Analysis – 10 July 2025 - Airbus broke resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00 Airbus recently broke the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 175.00 (which started the earlier sharp downward correction in March, as can be seen from the Airbus chart below) and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from May. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave iii of the impulse 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April. Given the clear daily uptrend, Airbus can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 190.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).

SOLB | Confirmed Descending Triangle Breakout – 32% Target 📍 Ticker: SOLB (Solvay SA – Euronext Brussels) 📆 Timeframe: 1D (Daily) 📉 Price: €30.14 📈 Pattern: Descending triangle breakout confirmed on daily close 📊 Breakout Probability estimation: ~73% (short-term triangle breakout upward) 🔍 Technical Setup (Updated on Daily Chart): Solvay has now confirmed the breakout on the daily timeframe, closing above both the horizontal support and the descending trendline. This marks a multi-timeframe confluence breakout, increasing confidence in the projected move toward upper resistance levels. ✅ Daily candle close above descending resistance ✅ RSI breakout above 55, building momentum 📉 Stop clearly defined under €27.90 → optimal risk profile 📊 Volume expanding, validating move 🧠 Updated Trade Plan: 📥 Entry Zone: €29.90–€30.50 (daily confirmation) ⛔ Stop-Loss: Below €27.90 🔁 Hold while structure remains above descending trendline support 🎯 Upside Targets & Potential Return (from €30.14) 🎯 Target Price Return Target 1 €33.84 +12.06% Target 2 €39.76 +32.21% 📊 Pattern Probability – Daily Structure: 📐 Pattern: Descending Triangle Breakout 🔺 Upward breakout probability: ~73% 🎯 Full measured move supports Target 2 if buyers remain active ⚠️ Technical Signals to Watch: 🔎 Retest of descending line on lower volume = strong ✅ RSI > 55 with bullish structure 📈 Rising volume → growing institutional interest 📊 Price reclaiming structure from broader daily consolidation 💬 Solvay is transitioning from a textbook 4H breakout to a multi-day continuation setup. The alignment of pattern, structure, and momentum makes this one of the cleaner swing setups on the European market right now. 🔔 Follow @TargetTraders for high-probability technical trades. #SOLB #BreakoutSetup #DescendingTriangle #TechnicalPattern #SwingTrade #Euronext #TargetTraders #VolumeBreakout #ChartAnalysis

by TargetTraders

ASML ASML Holding ASML closed at $671.6 on July 7, 2025. Market Capitalization: ASML's market cap is approximately $302–$314 billion as of early July 2025, making it one of the world’s 30 most valuable companies. Key Financials and Outlook Next Earnings Release: Scheduled for July 16, 2025. The consensus estimate for Q2 2025 earnings per share is $5.94, with analysts expecting continued strong performance driven by demand for advanced lithography equipment Recent Performance: Q1 2025 EPS: $6.31 (beat consensus by $0.19) Q1 2025 Revenue: $8.77 billion (above consensus) Guidance for Q2 2025 Revenue: $7.6–$8.1 billion Valuation Metrics: P/E Ratio: Approximately 29.8–35.8, based on trailing earnings. Dividend: ASML continues its capital return program, including dividends and share buybacks. Recent Trend: The stock is currently at a pullback reflecting demand and supply in semiconductor and its equities market Industry Leadership: ASML remains the world’s leading supplier of photolithography machines, essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Its EUV (extreme ultraviolet) systems are critical for producing the most advanced chips. Order Backlog: The company maintains a robust order backlog, providing revenue visibility despite market volatility. Global Demand: Demand from Asia, especially China, continues to be a significant driver, alongside global investments in AI and advanced chip production. ASML remains a global technology leader with a strong financial position and positive long-term outlook, despite recent share price volatility. The upcoming July 16 earnings report will be closely watched for updated guidance and demand trends in the semiconductor sector #ASML #AI #STOCKS

Short on BEN (EURONEXT:BENETEAU)High seller pressure with gaps during the march month Some bad news: "Shares in Beneteau fall 12.3%, headed for their worst day since September 2023, after the motorboat manufacturer said it expects weaker 2025 sales amid a business slowdown" Bearish until 5.50

Short on ADP (EURONEXT:AEROPORTS DE PARIS)Resistance level reached RSI overbought Short until 96.0

Short on ADP:EURONEXT (Aéroports de Paris)Oversold RSI + Resistance touched twice but never broken + Dividends already paid Opening price: 113.50 today 06/06/2025 TP set at 112.0 Leverage: x4 Potential gain: 1,30% x 4 = 5,20%

AEDIFICA - Alternative Medium Timeframe Elliot Wave analysis In this scenario, I’m interpreting the larger Wave 1 as a potential leading contracting diagonal, where each subwave is unfolding as a zigzag (3-3-3-3-3) rather than the typical 5-3-5-3-5 structure.Currently, we appear to be in Wave 4 (Pink) of this diagonal, which seems to be in the final stages of its downward leg before starting Wave 5 the final move of the pattern. The decline in Wave 4 (Pink) may take the form of either a WXY or an ABC correction; continued price development will help validate the count. I believe this interpretation aligns well with the recent price action, particularly because the market has been moving sideways for quite some time now without delivering a convincing impulsive move to the upside. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. All trading involves risk, and you should perform your own due diligence before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses that may arise from reliance on this content. Always trade at your own risk. #AED

ASML ASML is trading around $659.4per share The stock has a market capitalization of approximately $312 billion Company Overview ASML is a global leader in advanced semiconductor equipment, specializing in lithography systems essential for chip manufacturing, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) technologies. The company serves major semiconductor manufacturers worldwide, including in Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), Europe, and the US. CEO: Christophe D. Fouquet Headquarters: Veldhoven, Netherlands The next earnings announcement is scheduled for July 16, 2025, which will provide updated guidance and insights into demand trends, especially from China and the AI-driven semiconductor sector. ASML continues capital returns via dividends and share buybacks, supporting shareholder value. Summary ASML remains a dominant player in semiconductor manufacturing equipment with strong financials and growth prospects driven by AI and chip demand. While the stock has retreated from its peak, it maintains a bullish technical setup In brief: ASML trades near 659.4$ with a market cap over $300 billion, supported by robust fundamentals and strong demand for its lithography systems. The stock shows moderate bullish momentum with upside potential ahead of its July earnings release. #ASML #STOCKS #AI

AEDIFICA - Micro Timeframe EW-Analasyis *Updated* Version The bigger picture remains unchanged. As mentioned in the previous count, the Orange Wave 1/2 has either completed or is very close to completion. I can now say with confidence that we're approaching the end of Wave 2, which appears to be unfolding as an ABC correction within that second wave. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. All trading involves risk, and you should perform your own due diligence before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses that may arise from reliance on this content. Always trade at your own risk.

SOLB | Descending Triangle Breakout – Targeting +34% Move Ticker: EURONEXT:SOLB (Solvay SA – Euronext Brussels) 📆 Timeframe: 4H (4-hour) 📉 Price: €31.58 📈 Pattern: Descending triangle breakout from horizontal support 📊 Breakout Probability : ~73% upward breakout (short-term triangle) 🔍 Technical Setup: SOLB has successfully broken above a descending resistance line, bouncing off a solid horizontal support level near €28.00. This forms a bullish descending triangle breakout – a structure that historically resolves upward in short- to mid-term timeframes. ✅ Confirmed breakout from descending triangle 🟢 RSI pushing above 56 = bullish short-term momentum 📉 Defined support below = favorable risk/reward 🧠 Trade Plan: 📥 Entry Zone: €31.40–€31.70 (post-breakout confirmation) ⛔ Stop-Loss: Below €27.90 (under support base and triangle invalidation) 🎯 Upside Targets & ROIC (from €31.58): Target Price Return 🎯 Target 1 €33.84 +7.15% 🎯 Target 2 €39.76 +25.9% 📊 Pattern Probability – Based on Bulkowski: 📐 Pattern: Descending Triangle (short-term breakout) 🔺 Upward breakout probability: ~73% 💹 Measured move confirms Target 2 if volume remains elevated ⚠️ Technical Signals to Watch: 🔎 Strong green candle breaking the triangle → initial confirmation ✅ RSI breakout with no bearish divergence = supports continuation 📈 Volume spike = buyer interest returning 💬 Solvay’s breakout is a classic textbook move off strong horizontal support. This is a high-probability swing setup with tight risk and excellent upside potential. #SOLB #BreakoutSetup #DescendingTriangle #TechnicalPattern #SwingTrade #TargetTraders

by TargetTraders

With new wars appearing, is THALES a good buy?Pros: Massive scale & diversified contract base -€18 billion in annual revenue, 50+ years in defense—among Europe’s largest contractors . Secured key recent contracts: -NATO NCOP/BMD Phase 3 missile-defense and awareness system (ongoing since 2012, renewed in early 2025) . -NATO NCIA IT modernization contract (~€100 million+, six years) awarded via Proximus consortium . -Portuguese “ForceShield” VSHORAD air-defense system via NSPA . These show active involvement and political support in large, multiyear NATO/U.S.–backed defense programs. Exposure to rising defense budgets -With the new 5% NATO defense-spending pledge, countries are stepping up military expenditures—boosting demand for Thales’ radar, missile, and communication systems . -Positioned to capture billions more as defense budgets grow across Europe. Cons & Risks Size limits rapid gains -Large-cap stocks like Thales require major updates to move—tens or hundreds of millions in net new orders… a small contract won't cut it. -Expect slower reactions than mid-caps like Hensoldt or THEON. Valuation sensitivity -With high valuation levels, share price can dip on a valuation reset, even with decent results. -A disappointing earnings quarter or negative macroeconomic news could chip away at gains. Execution & political headwinds -Big contracts, like NATO BMD, are subject to delays or cost overruns, affecting profitability. -Geopolitical sensitivities (e.g., with Russia, Turkey, internal EU politics) can jeopardize projects or license approval. D) Mixed analyst sentiment -Although consensus leans positive, there are also Hold and Sell recommendations—some analysts worry about long product cycles and execution risks . -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.

Short on VIV (EURONEXT:VIVENDI)Daily and weekly oversold RSI + resistance touched two times without breacking + decreasing volumes. Looks like sellers are winning the battle. Opening price today at 2.895 TP set at 2.850 SL set at 2.905 Potential gain: +3% (1,5 x 2 leverage)

RMS - 3M - Projection over the next years Hermes , 3 months timeframe Keep pushing and pushing but i am expecting to the 4 of the 3 back to 1200 over the next years. Then 5 of the 3 to at least 4600. Many things can happen until there. Just for fun :)