Naturgy, the Strategic Shift Following BlackRocks DivestmentBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Movements within Naturgy’s shareholder structure are once again attracting market attention—and with good reason. BlackRock, through GIP, has decided to sell 7.1% of its stake via an accelerated bookbuild valued at approximately €1.7 billion. This operation not only closes a chapter for the fund but also opens a significant transition phase for the company itself.
GIP entered Naturgy a decade ago, paying €19 per share. Now, after years of dividends and with an exit price expected to be close to €26, BlackRock will crystallize a substantial capital gain. The fund has also committed to a 90-day lock-up period on further sales, providing a short-term buffer of stability as the shareholder base is reshaped.
This adjustment has clear implications: it reduces the chances of a new player—such as the Emirati company Taqa—entering the capital structure, while facilitating a potential exit by CVC, which has been evaluating options for some time. Board changes are also expected, as GIP currently holds three seats and will likely have to relinquish one.
These developments come at a particularly sensitive moment for Naturgy. The company is approaching the start of a new regulatory period for natural gas assets—an area that will significantly influence its future profitability. Moreover, this year Naturgy regained its position in MSCI indices after increasing its free float, a key requirement for attracting institutional capital.
Operationally, Naturgy is performing well. During the first nine months of the year, the company posted a net profit of €1,668 million, 5.6% higher than in 2024. EBITDA remains near historic highs at €4,214 million, and the expected dividend for the fiscal year stands at €1.70 per share, reinforcing Naturgy’s commitment to shareholders.
Technical Analysis (Ticker: NTGY)
From a technical perspective, the stock has shown solid performance throughout the year, even reaching all-time highs at €27.74, which has acted as a natural ceiling. Support within the current range sits around the 200-day moving average near €25.18, while the base of the April bullish impulse is at €22.24.
A shoulder-type formation has driven the 50-day moving average below the 100-day, a pattern that may indicate a potential downward correction over the coming week and even in today’s session. Trading opened with rising volume, an oversold RSI at 27.81%, and a MACD below a negative histogram.
Looking at the medium-term structure, the outlook remains constructive—provided the market absorbs the BlackRock stake placement smoothly. In that scenario, Naturgy could resume its upward trend toward the €28–30 range. However, if the price is once again rejected near €27, a corrective move back toward the lower bound of the channel would not be surprising, especially given the still-uncertain regulatory context.
The Exit Should Not Weaken the Company
BlackRock’s partial divestment should not weaken Naturgy; if anything, it may mark the beginning of a new chapter for the company—one in which shareholder rebalancing coincides with regulatory developments that will directly influence its valuation. With a solid business, strong cash-generation capacity, and an attractive dividend policy, Naturgy remains a stock worth monitoring closely.
The coming months will be decisive. The key will lie in how the company manages the balance between shareholder transition, regulatory pressures, and strategic ambition. What is clear is that Naturgy, once again, finds itself at a turning point.
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