Weekly Review (Sep 28 - Oct 2): Bonds, Rates & the EuroWeekly review for September 28 - October 2. A more macro week: the bond market and the rate story are doing the talking, and the euro is the one chart. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Context
Compare with Micro EUR/USD Futures (Sep 2022)
Euro FX Futures: Failed Retest Can Release DownsideThe edge is not simply Dollar strength, it is that the break has occurred with downside protection being bought, fewer reported option positions below 1.1400 to cushion the fall, and a stretched long-Dollar tape that argues for waiting for a cleaner retest rather than selling weakness immediately.
Weekly Review (Sep 21-25): EUR, Gold & the Dollar IndexWeekly review for September 21-25. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Recap: a few good trades last week. Gold went down as shown, came back to the zone we'd been working shorts from, then moved
EURUSD Long TradeTechnicals:
EUR sitting inside daily demand + DXY correlation
Fundamentals/Sentiment:
- COT reports nearing MAX long. Last time 2 months ago we ere at 277k and banks offloaded shorts so I'm anticipating same thing with price also inside technical demand.
- Mixed fundamentals strong for DXY, FED Cen
Euro & British Pound Futures. Eye-Balling For a Post FOMC ReliefIt's been roughly 10 days since The Federal Reserve has delivered a hawkish surprise, raising interest rates by 25 basis points and indicating that another increase may follow later this year.
Although this decision initially strengthens the U.S. dollar and places pressure on risk assets, the reac
Euro FX Futures: ECB and US PPI Support-Hold Test6E is a conditional long only after the ECB statement, US PPI and the press conference have cleared.
Where the edge is
The edge is a timed event-release setup, not a pre-event directional chase. Low conviction and depressed implied volatility leave EUR vulnerable to a sharper move once the ECB/PP
EURUSD 15m — Short Pressure and Return to the Daily MeanEURUSD (15m) delivered excellent trading conditions from late August through last week, with clean and sustained bullish movements.
In the most recent sessions, however, price action is showing signs of a potential new short‑side direction, supported by both lower and higher timeframes.
Our advance
Weekly Review (Aug 31 – Sep 4): EURWeekly review for August 31 – September 4. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Context: Jackson Hole flipped the rate picture — September hike odds went from 35% to 57%. Warsh decided the move on
COT 101 · Lesson 04 — Small Traders: Not Always "Dumb Money"🔵 WHO THEY ARE
Small traders — "nonreportable" in the CFTC's language — are everyone below the reporting threshold. The report does not name them; it shows their combined positions as the residual of the market. Most are individual traders.
🔵 THE CONTRARIAN CASE
Retail traders tend to be wrong
Long trade
📊 6E1! EURO FX FUTURES — POC / VALUE-AREA READ
Wednesday 26 August 2026
Entry Time: 10:45 AM NY Time
Direction: 🟢 Buyside
Entry: 1.16545
Target: 1.16855 (+0.266%)
Stop: 1.16510 (0.030%)
Planned RR: 8.86R
POC / Value Read
The chart shows 6E1! trading from a lower-value / discount location and atte
See all ideas
A representation of what an asset is worth today and what the market thinks it will be worth in the future.
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.
Frequently asked questions
The nearest expiration date for Micro EUR/USD Futures (Sep 2022) is Sep 19, 2022.
Traders prefer to sell futures contracts when they've already made money on the investment, but still have plenty of time left before the expiration date. Thus, many consider it a good option to sell Micro EUR/USD Futures (Sep 2022) before Sep 19, 2022.









