A yield neutral play against curve inversion The idea is a position that profits from any difference between the 20yr bond ETF ( NASDAQ:TLT ) and NASDAQ:IEF , the 10yr Note ETF. The potential opportunity lies in their identical share price, a rare event.
Yield on the 20yr has never been lower than the yield on the 10yr (since 1989). The top chart shows the difference in price . Always above 0. It implies that TLT's share price has always been higher than IEF's (middle chart, excluding 6mo in 2011). Bottom chart is TLT-IEF. Almost always >= zero.
This week the price difference was ~zero. A position that profits from any gap between TLT and IEF is a high probability trade.
Actionable trade details will depend on the assets used and may include:
ETF's NASDAQ:TLT and NASDAQ:IEF
TLT calls and IEF puts
20yr treasury bonds (in place of TLT
Futures ZB and ZN or their micro-equivalents
