GOLD - A false breakout of resistance within a bearish trendICMARKETS:XAUUSD has broken out of its short-term descending channel within the current distribution phase and is now testing the 4134 liquidity zone while printing fresh intermediate highs. Despite the technical recovery, the broader fundamental backdrop remains weak
Gold remains caught between geopolitical support and pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and elevated real yields. Analysts note that a sustainable recovery would likely require lower oil prices, declining bond yields, and softer expectations for further monetary tightening. Until then, the upside potential is expected to remain limited.
At the moment, oil prices continue to rise, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened for a fifth consecutive session, maintaining its broader bullish trend.
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Falling oil prices, A weaker U.S. dollar, Softer expectations for Fed rate hikes
Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Continued U.S. dollar strength
Resistance levels: 4124, 4134, 4195
Support levels: 4103, 4067, 4028
Technically, the market is testing a key liquidity pool within the current distribution phase and may be forming a short squeeze. If bears manage to keep price below the 4124–4134 resistance zone, it could trigger another leg lower in line with the broader daily bearish trend
Best regards,
R. Linda 
Short
GOLD - The Hunt for Liquidity (Correction) Before the Drop ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is recovering after Thursday's sharp decline, trading around $4,060 on Friday. This rebound may represent nothing more than a liquidity-building move before the broader downtrend resumes
The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, while gold remains under selling pressure, reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure. The broader trend remains firmly bearish.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to face pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. The current recovery appears to be a countertrend correction toward key liquidity zones, potentially building momentum for another decline toward the 4000–3983 support area. The next directional move will largely depend on the U.S. dollar, oil prices, PMI data, and developments surrounding the geopolitical conflict.
Bearish drivers: Stronger hawkish Fed expectations, Rising oil prices, Continued U.S. dollar strength, Profit-taking, Bearish technical structure
Bullish drivers: U.S. dollar weakness triggered by new tariff developments, Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected PMI data
Resistance levels: 4061, 4067, 4109
Support levels: 4021, 4000, 3983
Within the current countertrend correction, gold is testing the first trigger zone at 4061–4067. A short squeeze around this area could trigger another reversal and send price back toward support. However, a deeper correction toward the 4109–4134 liquidity zone before the next bearish leg cannot be ruled out
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
XAUUSD (H1) | Gold Coils Below $4,080 Resistance Weekly Close Shakeout or Pre-FOMC Bear Trap?
The Gold market (XAUUSD) enters a highly anticipated Friday session under tight technical compression as market participants prepare for the upcoming weekly close. With the crucial US Federal Reserve policy decision looming next week, institutional desks (Smart Money) are actively de-risking and rebalancing positions.
Fundamentally, the intraday order flow is guided by automated trading algorithms capitalizing on pre-FOMC positioning. As broader macroeconomic uncertainty keeps volatility compressed, gold remains structurally capped beneath major overhead supply layers. Unless safe-haven buyers force a decisive breakout above key technical pivots, the path of least resistance favors a targeted liquidity sweep to rebalance lower structural inefficiencies before the weekend.
Analyzing the H1 market geometry, the key coordinates to track for today's session include:
Major Overhead Resistance: 4,080.000 – 4,120.000 – Premium supply confluence zone and dynamic channel ceiling. This acts as the primary invalidation threshold for short-term bears.
Immediate Trading Pivot: 4,020.000 – 4,040.000 – Near-term horizontal checkpoint where high-frequency algorithms are executing intraday order-matching.
Major Liquidity Target (Demand Floor): 3,940.000 – 3,960.000 – Major institutional accumulation floor and structural liquidity pool containing resting buy-limit clusters.
Will algorithmic sellers force a clean Friday flush toward the $3,940 demand floor, or will pre-weekend short-covering spark an unexpected squeeze back above $4,080?
The Bearish Case (Sellers): The H1 bearish order flow remains structurally dominant beneath the $4,080 resistance. With traders de-risking ahead of next week's Fed meeting, buyers lack the aggressive volume to break dynamic ceilings. A puncture below $4,020 will trigger stop-loss cascades, driving a swift capitulation sweep straight into the $3,940 demand matrix.
The Bullish Case (Buyers): Shorting at the bottom of a compressed range ahead of the weekly close is a high-risk trap. The $3,940 – $4,000 zone represents a heavily defended institutional discount floor. If buyers absorb intraday supply and print a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHOCH) above $4,040, a sharp V-shaped short-squeeze will catch breakout sellers off guard.
💬 What is your execution playbook for today's Friday close? Are you shorting the resistance retest or waiting to buy the extreme liquidity sweep? Share your charts below! Short 
Crude Oil Above $100 — Is the Next Stop $105-$107?Following the increasing possibility of further tensions in the Middle East, crude oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) has gained more than +8% over the past 24 hours. If oil manages to remain above the psychological level of $100, it could continue its bullish trend.
Over the past 15 days, crude oil has been moving inside an ascending channel. It is currently trading above $100 and has successfully broken above the resistance zone($99.50-$96.00).
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that crude oil is currently completing main wave 3, which could potentially end around the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) .
I expect crude oil to continue its bullish move toward at least the $105 level. If oil manages to break the key trading level of $107, we could expect further upside toward the resistance lines.
First Target: $105.00
Second Target: $107.00
Third Target: Resistance lines
Stop Loss(SL): $95.60(Worst)
Points may shift as the market evolves
Gap: $95.16-$93.76
Gap: $79.50-$77.22
What’s your view on crude oil? Do you think oil can hold above the $100 level and continue its bullish momentum?
Note: Any news, statements, or developments related to the ongoing Middle East tensions could quickly affect Oil’s price.
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Long
Bitcoin Fake Breakout — Is a Bigger Correction About to Begin?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has experienced an upward trend over the past few days, and many traders were expecting Bitcoin to at least reach the 200_EMA(Weekly). However, due to the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility that these tensions could intensify in the coming days and nights, the market situation has changed.
At the same time, U.S. stock indices such as the S&P 500 ( CAPITALCOM:SPX500 ), as well as precious metals like Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) and Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), have started to decline, while the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY DXY) has started to rise. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin can continue its rally against this increasing macroeconomic pressure.
Before starting the technical analysis, it is important to mention that any news, statements, or developments related to the Middle East tensions over the next 24 hours could have a significant impact on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has once again moved below the resistance zone($65,630-$64,650) and the 50_EMA(Daily), which could be considered a potential fake breakout.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin’s recent upward move could be part of a corrective structure, potentially forming a Double Three Correction(WXY).
Also, we can see a bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern in the 4-hour time frame.
Based on the points mentioned above, I expect Bitcoin to continue its bearish trend. After breaking the Ascending Channel support line, Bitcoin could decline at least toward the $63,300 level. If bearish momentum increases, we could expect a deeper correction.
First Target: $63,300
Second Target: $62,180
Stop Loss(SL): $66,400
Key levels: $64,120 _ $62,800 _ $66,000
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $67,700-$67,100
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $64,440-$63,460
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $61,830-$60,550
What’s your view on Bitcoin? Do you think Bitcoin can resume its bullish trend, or should we expect a correction similar to other markets?
Note: Any news, statements, or developments related to the ongoing Middle East tensions could quickly affect Bitcoin’s price action and other risk assets.
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Short
Gold Eyes $4,150 — Are Bulls Ready for the Next Rally?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has once again moved below the resistance zone($4,138-$4,091) and is currently trading near the Support Lines and the Fibonacci Levels.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Gold is still completing main wave 4, while main wave 3 was an Extended Wave.
I expect Gold to rebound from the current support lines and resume its bullish trend, with an initial target of at least $4,115. If Gold manages to break above the key trading level of $4,117, we could expect a confirmed breakout of the resistance zone($4,138-$4,091) and a continuation of the bullish trend.
First Target: $4,115
Second Target: $4,142
Third Target: $4,160
Stop Loss(SL): $4,057(Worst)
Note: Since tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, any related news could have an immediate impact on the Gold. Therefore, be sure to monitor geopolitical developments closely and manage your risk carefully.
What’s your view on Gold? Do you think gold can move above $4,150, or will it remain below the resistance zone($4,138-$4,091)?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Gold Analysis (XAUUSD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Long 
US10Y Fake Break:Is a New Bond Yield Rally About to Shake MarketToday, I want to analyze the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10 ), as it is one of the key financial market indices that can show us the broader market direction for various assets like Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), U.S. stock indices (including the S&P 500 ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 )), and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) in the crypto market. Stay with me.
On the daily timeframe, the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield is currently moving near a support zone (4.24%-4.10%) and has formed a fake break. Typically, after fake break patterns, the market tends to move in the opposite direction, with upward momentum (educational note).
From a classical technical analysis standpoint, the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield seems to have formed a falling wedge pattern, which could signal a potential upward breakout.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, after breaking the upper line of the falling wedge pattern, we could anticipate the start of the next impulsive wave upward.
I expect the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield to continue its upward trend in the coming days and at least reach the next resistance zone(4.64%-4.50%). This rise could lead to a decline in risk assets such as U.S. equities, gold, silver, and even the crypto market, including Bitcoin.
Target: Resistance zone(4.64%-4.50%)
Stop Loss(SL): 4.35%
Note: The U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield could potentially maintain its upward trend ahead of the FOMC meeting on July 29. After the release of new economic data and once we hear Warsh’s latest remarks, we may get a clearer signal about the next major move or a possible trend reversal.
------------
How Rising 10-Year Bond Yields Influence Major Assets
When 10-year government bond yields move higher, they tend to reshape investor behavior across markets:
Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies
As yields climb, capital often rotates toward safer, income-generating assets like bonds. This shift can reduce demand for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, potentially leading to price pressure.
Gold
Gold typically struggles in a rising yield environment. Since it doesn’t generate income, higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can weigh on its price.
U.S. Equities
Stocks, especially growth and tech sectors, may face headwinds. Higher yields usually mean higher borrowing costs, which can compress margins and slow down expansion for companies reliant on financing.
------------
What’s your view on US10Y? If US10Yr rises, could we see declines in gold, U.S. stock indices, and the cryptocurrency market?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Daily time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. 
Long
Long
Long
## GOLD (XAU/USD) – 15-Minute Chart Analysis## GOLD (XAU/USD) – 15-Minute Chart Analysis
1. Gold remains in a **short-term bearish trend**, with the recent rally appearing to be a **corrective pullback** rather than the start of a new uptrend.
2. Price has rallied into the **4,078–4,080 resistance zone** (red horizontal line), which coincides with the previous breakdown level and a key Fibonacci retracement area.
3. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that **Wave (4)** is likely nearing completion, setting the stage for a potential **Wave (5)** decline.
4. The rising blue trendline has provided temporary support during the recovery, but a break below this trendline would confirm that buyers are losing control.
5. The descending trendline from the previous swing high remains intact, indicating that the broader short-term trend continues to favor the bears.
6. A decisive rejection from the **4,078–4,080** resistance zone could trigger a fresh impulsive decline toward **4,020**, followed by **3,980–3,960** as the projected Wave (5) target.
7. If buyers manage to close decisively above **4,080**, the current bearish Elliott Wave count would weaken, increasing the probability of an extended recovery toward **4,110–4,135**.
8. The current price action is forming a **converging triangle/wedge**, and a breakout from this structure is likely to produce a strong directional move.
9. Traders should closely monitor the **4,078 resistance** and the **4,020 support**, as a breakout or breakdown from these levels will determine the next short-term swing.
10. **Overall Outlook: Moderately Bearish (8/10)** with the expected path: **4,079 → Rejection at 4,080 → 4,020 → 3,980 → 3,960**, while **4,080** remains the key breakout and invalidation level.
---
### Key Technical Levels
* **Immediate Resistance:** **4,078–4,080**
* **Bullish Invalidation:** **Close above 4,080**
* **Immediate Support:** **4,020**
* **Major Support:** **3,980–3,960**
* **Expected Wave:** **Wave (5) Down**
---
### Disclaimer
> **Disclaimer:** This analysis is based on technical indicators, Elliott Wave interpretation, Fibonacci retracement levels, trendline analysis, price action, and the current market structure. It is intended **solely for educational and informational purposes** and **should not be considered financial or investment advice**. Financial markets are inherently volatile, and no technical analysis can guarantee future price movements. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
Short 
Gold | One More Wave or the Beginning of a Bullish Reversal?XAUUSD | 4H Elliott Wave Update
According to the higher-degree wave count, Wave IV is still expected to be in progress. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure may be developing a Leading Diagonal as the final part of Wave A. However, additional price action is still required before the pattern can be considered complete.
In the aggressive scenario, if Waves 1, 3, and 5 of the diagonal are all impulsive, the internal structure should follow the 5-3-5-3-5 formula. Although price has already reacted from the first target area, there is still a valid possibility that one final minor downside wave is needed to complete Wave (5).
That said, my own observations suggest that markets do not always require the final expected move. In some cases, a new impulsive sequence begins from the current region without printing one last low. Until the market provides structural confirmation, both scenarios remain valid.
In the conservative scenario, the current pattern may be interpreted as a Triple Zigzag rather than a Leading Diagonal. Since multiple Zigzags can sometimes resemble a diagonal, visual appearance alone is not enough. The internal wave structure remains the key factor.
For now, a confirmed breakout above the Base Channel is required to support the bullish scenario. Otherwise, the possibility of one final decline remains on the table.
If the Leading Diagonal is confirmed, I expect Wave B to unfold first, followed by Wave C, completing Wave IV as a classic Zigzag correction. On the other hand, if the current structure proves to be a Triple Zigzag, it could prepare the foundation for the next higher-degree Wave V.
Research Note
This analysis is based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, combined with historical market observations and independent research.
Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr.Nobody
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
7 days ago
Gold | One More Wave… or Has Wave B Already Begun?
Long 
Long 
Long
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES [$SPCX] ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISSpace Exploration Technologies appears to be approaching the final stages of a corrective ABC decline. Following the impulsive Wave A from the all-time high, price completed a three-wave Wave B rally before rolling over into Wave C. The current decline is unfolding as an ending diagonal—a terminal Elliott Wave pattern that typically reflects trend exhaustion rather than the start of a fresh impulsive decline.
Unlike established securities, however, SPCX has virtually no historical price data. The absence of higher-timeframe structure significantly reduces analytical confidence, as Elliott Wave analysis relies heavily on historical context to validate wave degrees and identify long-term market cycles. With only a limited trading history available, all wave counts should therefore be treated with greater caution than would normally be the case.
Even so, price is now testing an important confluence of support around the IPO level near $135, while the lower boundary of the ending diagonal converges with long-term trendline support. One final marginal low remains possible to complete Wave C, but the risk of downside continuation appears increasingly balanced by the potential for a meaningful reversal.
Ending diagonals often conclude with a brief capitulation before reversing sharply, with the entire pattern frequently retraced in relatively short order. A decisive breakout above the diagonal’s upper boundary would provide the first technical confirmation that the correction has ended and that a larger recovery phase is underway. Until then, the preferred outlook remains that the market is completing, rather than initiating, a bearish sequence.
Not financial advice. Like and follow for more Elliott Wave and macro crypto analysis.
Long
Leading Diagonal or a Larger Double Zigzag? Elliott Wave ScenariXAGUSD (Silver):
After the previous analysis, the aggressive scenario continues to focus on a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) as the primary interpretation. The only reason this scenario remains valid is that the fifth wave of the diagonal may have already completed. However, considering Silver's historical correlation with Gold, there is still a possibility that one final lower-degree decline is required to complete the entire structure.
On the other hand, if the market develops a corrective rally from the current price, another decline is still expected afterward. Without that final decline, the third wave would become the shortest, violating one of the Elliott Wave rules. In that case, the correction would most likely unfold as a classic Zigzag, where Wave B has developed as a Running Flat, followed by a final impulsive Wave C to complete the pattern.
Alternatively, if the market begins forming a larger corrective structure from the current area, this could become the first bullish signal for a higher-degree correction. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the exact corrective pattern cannot be determined in advance and may evolve into any valid corrective structure. At the moment, however, a Double Zigzag appears to be one of the more probable candidates for completing the higher-degree Wave IV. This reflects the structure itself—not a prediction.
From the conservative perspective, if the next advance develops as a five-wave impulse instead of a three-wave correction, it would provide the first meaningful evidence that the larger correction has already ended. A subsequent Wave B in any corrective form, together with respect for the Base Channel, would further strengthen this interpretation.
Finally, the relationship between precious metals and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains an important part of this analysis. Although a weaker Dollar often supports higher Gold and Silver prices, I have also observed periods where Gold continued building nested impulsive structures while the DXY was undergoing its own correction. For that reason, intermarket correlation should always be evaluated alongside wave structure rather than in isolation.
As always, this is not a prediction. It is a structural roadmap based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. The market itself will determine which scenario becomes dominant.
"Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause."
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Silver / U.S. Dollar
Jul 11
Leading Diagonal Suggests a Corrective Rally Before Completing
Long 
S&P 500 at Potential Reversal Zone—Is a Bigger Correction Next?The S&P 500 ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) reacted strongly to the recent support zone($7,463-$7,430) and Support Lines, which led to another bullish move. However, the index is currently trading near the key trading level of $7,500 and the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) .
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Wave C appears to have been completed through an Ending Diagonal pattern. The lower trendline of this pattern has already been broken, and the S&P 500 is currently pulling back to retest it.
I expect the S&P 500 to break below the support zone($7,463-$7,430) and support lines in the coming sessions and decline at least toward the $7,413 level.
Target: $7,413
Stop Loss(SL): $7,548
Note: Since tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, any related news could have an immediate impact on the S&P 500. Therefore, be sure to monitor geopolitical developments closely and manage your risk carefully.
Note: If the S&P 500 begins to decline with strong bearish momentum, it could have a rapid and direct impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ).
What’s your view on the S&P 500? Do you think it can print new all-time highs again, or should we expect a deeper correction?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Short
Long 
GOLD (XAUUSD) 1H Analysis: Wave E Completed, Eyeing 4200 Before Overview:
Looking at the 1-hour (1H) chart for Gold, we can observe some compelling structural developments. The price recently completed a corrective A-B-C-D-E sequence, establishing a solid base at the wave E low. This was followed by a strong impulsive breakout to the upside, signaling that market momentum has officially shifted to the buyers.
Technical Breakdown:
Completed Correction: The A-B-C-D-E pattern indicates that the recent phase of consolidation has ended. The sharp rally originating from point E confirms massive buying interest at lower levels.
Current Price Action: After breaking through initial resistance, the price is currently accumulating around the 4095 level, preparing for its next directional move.
Projection & Key Levels: Based on the projected path drawn on the chart, the primary objective is a push higher to test the psychological resistance level at 4200 first. Once that peak is reached, we anticipate profit-taking and a significant retracement. The target for this deeper pullback is the Demand Zone / Support Block, highlighted by the grey box in the 4025 - 4030 area.
Trade Idea / Strategy:
Short-term Plan: For active day traders with an appetite for risk, there may be short-term opportunities to follow the bullish momentum targeting the 4200 level.
Medium-term Plan (Swing Trade): The 4200 area carries a high risk of rejection, so chasing the price at those highs is not recommended. A much safer strategy is to wait for the anticipated drop into our highlighted Demand Zone (4025-4030). If the price tests this area and prints bullish reversal signals (like a strong rejection wick), it will present a low-risk, high-reward opportunity to enter a Long position.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target Resistance: 4200
Major Support (Demand Zone): 4025 - 4030
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and technical analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and use strict risk management. Long 
Long 
IREN | DailyNASDAQ:IREN — Quan-Entangling Model
Quan-Analysis | Impulsive Extension in Intermediate Wave (3) Underway 📈
IREN rose 3 5. 6 9 %, launching from the confluence of Support Ray 2 within TSQ-Structure χ, as projected. The broad origin of the illustrated Trend Ray (Trend E-lines ➤ Δ, χ, and τ) clearly predefines an inclusive structural space for the impulsive expansion of Intermediate Wave (3).
Respecting this integrated Quan-Entangling Model, TSQ-Structure χ and the converging Quan-Structure ψ simultaneously contribute to shaping the cymatic trendflow of the evolving price expansion within the illustrated Trend Ray, converging toward the defined HPQ Target ➤ $133 🎯 | Early October.
🔖 To better visualize this principle ➤ Quantum Entanglement within my methodology, I developed Model X instantly. Like Quan-Structure χ in the daily frame below, it functions as a T ransitional- S upport Q uan-Structure, encapsulating the combined influence of all identified Quan-Structures within a defined chart frame.
🔖 It's worth noting that every major turning point on the daily chart since early November has been identified with high precision through the defined Quan-Structures λᵣ, λ₁, λ₂, φ and now TSQ χ ⋆✨.⋆ in this Entangled Quan-Model ⋆˚࿔༄ ✰.⋆
#SmartInvesting #StrategicAnalysis #FutureVision #TrendAnalysis #MarketInfrastructure #QuanAnalysis #QuantumEntanglement
#CymaticTrendflow Long 
