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Wave Analysis

sell active+Overall trend The market structure is still bullish. Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since the 21st. It is trading above both ascending yellow trendlines. Buyers are still in control until one of those trendlines breaks decisively. However, the market is now approaching a strong resistance area. Red descending trendline The thick red line is the most important resistance on your chart. It connects major swing highs and has rejected price multiple times. Current resistance zone: Around 4131–4140 If price reaches this zone, expect one of two things: Rejection (more likely on the first touch) Strong breakout with high momentum Horizontal resistance I can see three important horizontal levels: 4120.8 (current resistance) 4131.8 4161.1 (major resistance) These are logical profit-taking areas for buyers. Current price action The last candles show: Strong impulsive rally Small pullback Sideways consolidation This means buyers are resting, not necessarily reversing. Psychology: Early buyers are taking profits. New buyers are waiting for confirmation. Sellers are trying to defend resistance. No side has won yet. Your SELL position From your screenshot: Sell entry is around 4116–4120 Stop-loss is above 4160 Targets are:TP1: 4072 TP2: 3941 TP3: 3874 This is roughly a trendline rejection swing trade. The risk-reward is good if the setup works. The only concern is that you're selling against the short-term bullish momentum. What I would watch Scenario 1: SELL works I would like to see: Failure to break 4120–4131 Bearish engulfing candle Lower high on the 15m or 30m RSI bearish divergence Increasing selling volume Then your first target around 4072 becomes realistic. Scenario 2: SELL fails If price closes strongly above: 4131 and especially above 4140 then buyers are probably targeting: 4161 then possibly higher. At that point, holding the short becomes much riskier. Market psychology Right now I would rate it like this: Long-term trend: Bullish (8/10) Short-term momentum: Bullish (7/10) Resistance strength: Strong (8/10) Probability of an initial rejection: Moderate to high Probability of a full trend reversal from here: Not confirmed My trading plan If I were trading this chart, I would not sell immediately just because price is near resistance. Instead, I'd wait for confirmation such as: Liquidity sweep above 4120/4131 followed by a close back below Bearish RSI divergence Strong bearish rejection candle Break of the short-term ascending trendline Lower high after the break Only then would I look for a short position. If none of those happen and price simply consolidates above resistance, I'd avoid the trade. One improvement for your indicator Since you're building your own TradingView indicator, I'd add a Trade Quality Score instead of firing signals whenever conditions partially align. For example: Condition Score Trend agrees +20 Liquidity sweep +20 RSI divergence +15 Rejection candle +15 Volume above average +10 HTF resistance/support +10 Market not consolidating +5 Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 +5 Then display: 90–100: A+ Trade (green) 75–89: Good Trade (yellow) Below 75: No Trade (gray) That approach filters out many mediocre setups and helps focus only on the highest-quality opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jashchauhan0
Smart Money and Retail Traders Create Market TrendsHave you ever wondered why a market suddenly starts trending? One day, price is moving sideways. Then, without warning, it breaks out and begins a powerful move. Retail traders often enter after the move becomes obvious. By that time, large market participants may already have been building positions. This creates an interesting relationship between two major groups in financial markets: Smart money and retail traders. They don't always trade in the same way, and they don't always enter at the same time. Understanding how their behavior interacts can help explain why markets trend, consolidate, reverse, and sometimes move in unexpected directions. Who Are Smart Money and Retail Traders? The term "smart money" is commonly used to describe large and experienced market participants. This can include: Banks Hedge funds Asset managers Institutions Professional trading firms Retail traders are individual market participants trading with comparatively smaller positions. The difference is not simply about who is smarter. It is mostly about size, information, experience, and execution. Large institutions often have the resources to analyze markets in greater depth and manage positions that are far too large for a typical retail trader. But even institutions cannot predict the future with certainty. They are still participants in the same market. How Large Players Build Positions Imagine an institution wants to buy a very large amount of an asset. If it buys everything at once, price may move sharply higher, making the remaining purchases more expensive. Instead, large participants may build positions gradually. This can happen while price is moving sideways or during periods of uncertainty. To the average trader, the market may look boring. But beneath the surface, significant buying or selling may be taking place. Eventually, when the balance between supply and demand shifts strongly enough, price begins to move. This is where a trend can start. Retail Traders Often Join Later Retail traders frequently enter after a trend becomes visible. A breakout occurs. The chart looks bullish. News becomes positive. Social media starts discussing the move. More traders notice the opportunity and begin buying. Their participation adds further demand. This can help accelerate the existing trend. The same thing happens in reverse during downtrends. As price falls, fear spreads. Retail traders begin selling. Stop losses are triggered. Leverage positions may be liquidated. The additional selling pressure can push price even lower. In this way, retail participation can sometimes amplify a trend that has already begun. The Psychology of the Crowd Markets are heavily influenced by human emotion. When prices rise, people become optimistic. When prices continue rising, confidence turns into excitement. Eventually, excitement can become greed. The opposite happens during declines. Uncertainty becomes fear. Fear turns into panic. These emotional cycles create predictable behavior among large groups of traders. Smart money is not necessarily trying to "trick" retail traders. However, large participants understand that markets are driven by liquidity and human behavior. They know where traders are likely to place orders. They know that obvious highs, lows, support levels, and resistance zones often attract significant activity. Understanding this behavior can influence how large positions are executed. Why Liquidity Matters Liquidity is one of the most important pieces of the puzzle. Large traders need other participants to take the opposite side of their transactions. For example, an institution looking to sell a large position needs enough buyers willing to purchase from them. This is one reason price often moves toward areas where many orders are concentrated. These areas may include: Previous highs Previous lows Equal highs and lows Major support and resistance Breakout levels Psychological price levels When price reaches these areas, trading activity can increase significantly. Sometimes the resulting movement creates a breakout. Other times, price briefly moves beyond the level before reversing. This is why understanding liquidity can provide useful context when analyzing market behavior. How Trends Become Self-Reinforcing A trend often begins with a relatively small shift in supply and demand. As price moves, more traders notice. New participants enter. Momentum traders join. Breakout traders react. The media begins covering the move. Retail traders become increasingly interested. Each new participant can add more buying or selling pressure. The trend becomes self-reinforcing. This is one reason markets can move much further than many traders initially expect. The trend is no longer being driven by the original participants alone. It is now being supported by an expanding crowd. When the Crowd Becomes Too Confident Trends eventually reach a point where optimism or pessimism becomes extreme. At the top of a strong rally, almost everyone may already be bullish. New buyers continue entering because they fear missing out. But if most potential buyers have already entered, there may be less new demand available to push prices higher. At the same time, experienced participants may begin taking profits. The market becomes vulnerable to a change in sentiment. The same principle applies during major sell-offs. When fear reaches an extreme, sellers may become exhausted. This is often where market cycles begin to change. Smart Money vs. Retail Money Is Not Always a Battle It's tempting to think of the market as a simple battle between institutions and retail traders. Reality is much more complicated. Institutions can also be wrong. Retail traders can also identify trends early. Sometimes both groups are buying. Sometimes both are selling. And sometimes different institutions have completely different opinions about the same asset. The market is not a game where one group always wins. It is a continuous auction involving millions of participants with different goals, time horizons, and strategies. What Retail Traders Can Learn Retail traders cannot compete with institutions on size. They don't need to. Their biggest advantage is flexibility. A retail trader can enter or exit a position quickly. They can focus on smaller opportunities. They can remain patient and wait for the right setup. Instead of trying to predict what large institutions are doing, traders can focus on observing what price is actually showing. Look for changes in: Market structure Volume Liquidity Price action Support and resistance Trend strength The goal is not to follow "smart money" blindly. The goal is to understand the behavior of the market and react accordingly. Final words Market trends are not created by one group alone. Large institutions may provide significant buying or selling pressure. Retail traders can add momentum and amplify emotional moves. News and sentiment can attract even more participants. Together, these forces create the trends we see on our charts. The most useful lesson is not to think of smart money and retail traders as two opposing teams. Instead, think of the market as a constantly changing ecosystem of participants. Some enter early. Some enter late. Some provide liquidity. Some chase momentum. Some take profits. And some panic at exactly the wrong time. When you begin to understand how these different participants interact, price movements start to make more sense. Because behind every trend is a story. A story of positioning, liquidity, psychology, and changing expectations. And the chart is where that story is ultimately revealed.
Education
by Karrie_mantor
sell active Overall trend The market structure is still bullish. Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since the 21st. It is trading above both ascending yellow trendlines. Buyers are still in control until one of those trendlines breaks decisively. However, the market is now approaching a strong resistance area. Red descending trendline The thick red line is the most important resistance on your chart. It connects major swing highs and has rejected price multiple times. Current resistance zone: Around 4131–4140 If price reaches this zone, expect one of two things: Rejection (more likely on the first touch) Strong breakout with high momentum Horizontal resistance I can see three important horizontal levels: 4120.8 (current resistance) 4131.8 4161.1 (major resistance) These are logical profit-taking areas for buyers. Current price action The last candles show: Strong impulsive rally Small pullback Sideways consolidation This means buyers are resting, not necessarily reversing. Psychology: Early buyers are taking profits. New buyers are waiting for confirmation. Sellers are trying to defend resistance. No side has won yet. Your SELL position From your screenshot: Sell entry is around 4116–4120 Stop-loss is above 4160 Targets are:TP1: 4072 TP2: 3941 TP3: 3874 This is roughly a trendline rejection swing trade. The risk-reward is good if the setup works. The only concern is that you're selling against the short-term bullish momentum. What I would watch Scenario 1: SELL works I would like to see: Failure to break 4120–4131 Bearish engulfing candle Lower high on the 15m or 30m RSI bearish divergence Increasing selling volume Then your first target around 4072 becomes realistic. Scenario 2: SELL fails If price closes strongly above: 4131 and especially above 4140 then buyers are probably targeting: 4161 then possibly higher. At that point, holding the short becomes much riskier. Market psychology Right now I would rate it like this: Long-term trend: Bullish (8/10) Short-term momentum: Bullish (7/10) Resistance strength: Strong (8/10) Probability of an initial rejection: Moderate to high Probability of a full trend reversal from here: Not confirmed My trading plan If I were trading this chart, I would not sell immediately just because price is near resistance. Instead, I'd wait for confirmation such as: Liquidity sweep above 4120/4131 followed by a close back below Bearish RSI divergence Strong bearish rejection candle Break of the short-term ascending trendline Lower high after the break Only then would I look for a short position. If none of those happen and price simply consolidates above resistance, I'd avoid the trade. One improvement for your indicator Since you're building your own TradingView indicator, I'd add a Trade Quality Score instead of firing signals whenever conditions partially align. For example: Condition Score Trend agrees +20 Liquidity sweep +20 RSI divergence +15 Rejection candle +15 Volume above average +10 HTF resistance/support +10 Market not consolidating +5 Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 +5 Then display: 90–100: A+ Trade (green) 75–89: Good Trade (yellow) Below 75: No Trade (gray) That approach filters out many mediocre setups and helps focus only on the highest-quality opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jashchauhan0
XAUUSD: ABC Pullback Could Trigger Next Bullish WaveGold is still holding a constructive bullish structure after the strong recovery from the lower base. From Kelly’s view, the market has already created an impulsive move higher, and the current pullback may simply be an ABC correction before price attempts another upside continuation. The key idea is simple: gold may correct first, but the bullish structure remains active while price holds above the trendline and the main buy zone. ⟡ Market structure The chart shows gold recovering strongly from the 3,960 area, then building higher lows along the rising trendline. Price pushed into the 4,130–4,140 region before slowing down, which is normal after a strong bullish leg. Gold is now trading around 4,118, close to the short-term support area. The first reaction zone sits around 4,100–4,105, where a small buy scalping setup may appear. The more important zone is the 4,068–4,075 area. This is marked as the possible end of the ABC correction. If buyers defend this zone, gold may start a new upward wave towards the upper trendline and the 4,150–4,160 target area. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4,100–4,105: buy scalping zone and short-term reaction area ◌ 4,068–4,075: main buy zone and possible ABC completion ◌ 4,118–4,123: current price reaction area ◌ 4,130–4,140: nearest resistance zone ◌ 4,150–4,160: upside target and trendline target area ◌ Below 4,068: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a short bullish wave sequence from the lower base. After that, the current movement may be forming an ABC correction. Wave A is the first pullback from the recent high. Wave B may form a small rebound around the 4,100 zone. Wave C may complete around 4,068–4,075 if price continues to correct deeper. If wave C ends inside this buy zone and a bullish confirmation candle appears, gold may begin the next continuation phase. The next target would be 4,130–4,140 first, then 4,150–4,160 if momentum expands. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for gold to complete the ABC correction around the buy zone before looking for continuation. Entry zone: 4,068–4,075 if bullish confirmation appears Scalping entry zone: 4,100–4,105 only if price reacts strongly Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low or below 4,060 Take profit 1: 4,130–4,140 Take profit 2: 4,150–4,160 Take profit 3: higher trendline area if bullish momentum continues Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,068 with strong bearish pressure, the ABC bullish setup weakens. In that case, price may need to form a deeper base before the next recovery becomes reliable. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is a bullish continuation structure, but the market needs a healthy correction before the next strong move. Buying directly after a strong push is not the cleanest plan. The better setup is to wait for gold to pull back into support, then watch whether buyers defend the ABC completion zone. Gold is correcting inside a bullish structure. If the buy zone holds, the next upside wave may continue towards 4,150–4,160. Share your view below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
SBI Cards: Two Valid Counts, One Decision ZoneOne of the strengths of Elliott Wave is that it encourages thinking in multiple scenarios rather than forcing a single market narrative. The current structure in SBI Cards can be interpreted in two ways: The ongoing advance may represent Wave (iv) within a larger impulsive decline. Alternatively, the entire decline from the highs may be unfolding as an ABC correction, with the current 1–5 impulse forming Wave (C). At this stage, both counts remain technically valid and indicate a downside movement. The market will eventually invalidate one of them through price action. Instead of trying to predict which count is "correct," I prefer to identify the key structural levels where the market is likely to reveal its intention. Elliott Wave is most valuable not when it provides certainty, but when it helps organize multiple possibilities into a structured decision-making framework. Shared for educational and research purposes only. Not investment advice.
NSE:SBICARDShort
by PipVoyager
One 97 Communications (Paytm): Wave (iv) Testing a Key Support CPrice is correcting after a strong impulsive Wave (iii) advance and has entered a confluence support zone. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~₹1,276) aligns closely with prior price structure, making this the first area to watch for a potential Wave (iv) completion. If buyers defend this zone, the trend may be preparing for a Wave (v) continuation. A sustained break below this area would shift attention towards the 50% (₹1,236) and 61.8% (₹1,195) retracement levels. Waiting for price confirmation rather than anticipating the next move. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
NSE:PAYTMLong
by PipVoyager
xauusd/ GOLD - Target Achieved (1:5 Risk:Reward)**Trade Analysis Recap – Target Achieved (1:5 Risk:Reward)** ✅ The buy setup was shared in advance with clearly defined **entry, stop-loss, and target levels** before the market moved. ✅ Price respected the descending trendline and consolidated near a strong support zone, indicating buyers were stepping in. ✅ A confirmed breakout above the descending trendline provided the entry signal as per the trading plan. ✅ The stop loss was placed below the recent swing low to effectively manage risk. ✅ After the breakout, Gold gained strong bullish momentum and moved exactly as anticipated. 🎯 **The predefined 1:5 Risk:Reward target was successfully achieved**, with price reaching the projected resistance level that was shared before the trade. **Key Takeaways** * ✔️ Trade the setup, not emotions. * ✔️ Wait for breakout confirmation before entering. * ✔️ Always define entry, stop-loss, and target before the trade. * ✔️ Proper risk management and patience can produce consistent high-quality trades. * ✔️ Following the trading plan is more important than predicting the market. **Educational Purpose Only:** This analysis is shared solely for educational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shiva-kumar1
Some rally before the downtrend again resumesMazdock CMP -2354 Garden Reach CMP- 2620 In Elliott the complex correction are the most diff part. But with the help of the oscillators I think I have finally corrected that. Elliott- the c wave of B is a failure in the both the charts. To me the C wave rally will now begin. The tgt for both the stocks are on the chart. Conclusion - Thats a zig zag corrective rally and once it will get over the down trend will again resume. Hence exiting the rally is very important.
NSE:GRSELong
by singh17vivek
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBOUNDS, BUT THE REAL TEST IS ABOVE BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBOUNDS, BUT THE REAL TEST IS ABOVE Gold is recovering from last week’s bottom area, but the market is still not in a clean bullish structure. Price is moving inside a short-term rising channel after reacting from the lower value zone. The rebound looks controlled, but with US-Iran tension still active and the market pricing at least one Fed hike by year-end, gold may continue to face selling pressure at higher prices. The chart is clear now: gold can still push higher, but the upper liquidity zone is where the real test begins. Technical structure On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the lower base and is now trading around 4,060. The POC Buy Reaction Zone around 4,005 - 4,012 remains the main support below current price. As long as gold holds above this area, the short-term rebound can continue. However, the upper zone around 4,095 - 4,105 is marked as the main sell area. This is where sellers may defend again if price reaches higher liquidity. The rising channel supports the recovery, but price is now getting closer to resistance. That means chasing buy too late becomes risky. Important zones POC Buy Reaction Zone: 4,005 - 4,012 Main value support and reaction base. Buy scalping area: 4,055 - 4,065 Short-term reaction area inside the current rebound. Careful selling zone: 4,081 First upper reaction level. Sell gold here: 4,095 - 4,105 Main resistance and preferred sell-reaction zone. Last week’s bottom: 3,959 Major downside reference if the recovery fails. Trading scenario Sell reaction from 4,095 - 4,105 Entry: Look for sell positions only if price rallies into 4,095 - 4,105 and shows clear rejection. Stop Loss: Above the sell zone or above the local rejection high. Take Profit: TP1: 4,081 TP2: 4,055 - 4,065 TP3: 4,005 - 4,012 This setup is based on waiting for gold to move into upper liquidity first, then watching whether sellers defend that value zone. Final view Gold can continue the short-term rebound while it holds above the POC Buy Reaction Zone. But the main structure is not fully bullish yet. The stronger decision area is above, around 4,095 - 4,105. If gold reaches that zone and fails, sellers may take control again. For now, I do not want to chase the middle. Let price reach liquidity. Then trade the reaction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
2
GOLD: Breakout Confirmed – Buy the Dip or Fade the Rally?Gold has broken above the H1 descending trendline, signaling improving short-term momentum. However, with RSI already approaching overbought territory, chasing the current rally carries a higher risk. The focus now shifts to whether buyers can defend the breakout on the next pullback. 📌 Trading Plan Resistance: 4110–4130 | 4150–4180 Support: 4040–4050 | 3998–4005 | 3965–3975 📌 Personal View ✅ The short-term structure has turned bullish after the trendline breakout. ✅ A pullback toward 4040–4050 could offer a better buying opportunity if buyers defend the zone. ✅ If momentum remains strong, gold may extend toward 4110–4130, with 4150–4180 as the next upside target. ⚠️ A break back below 3998–4005 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose 3965–3975. Patience remains key—wait for price to react at the marked zones rather than chasing the breakout. What do you think? Will buyers defend the breakout and push toward 4130, or is this just another liquidity grab before a deeper pullback?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by chungngct
Gold Eyes 4,080 — Breakout or Bull Trap?> Yến: Gold Eyes 4,080 — Breakout or Bull Trap? Gold continues to recover after reclaiming its ascending channel, while the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure as traders price in the possibility of Fed rate cuts later this year. With Treasury yields stabilizing and risk sentiment improving, buyers are attempting to regain short-term control. However, the market is now approaching an important institutional supply area where the next impulsive move could begin. Market Structure ✅ Price has broken the previous bearish trendline. ✅ The ascending channel remains intact. ✅ Higher highs and higher lows continue to develop. ✅ Price is trading above immediate demand, confirming buyers remain in control. From an SMC perspective, institutions appear to be repricing the market higher while targeting liquidity resting above previous highs. Key Levels 🟢 Immediate Demand (FVG): 4,000 – 4,005 First mitigation zone for buyers. 🟟 Intermediate Resistance: 4,028 – 4,032 Potential intraday reaction area. 🔴 Internal Relief Retest: 4,058 – 4,062 Important supply zone where profit-taking may appear. 🎯 Primary Buy-Side Liquidity Target: 4,080 – 4,085 Main upside objective if bullish momentum continues. The breakout above the descending trendline suggests institutional buying interest has returned. Rather than chasing price higher, Smart Money often allows price to revisit mitigation zones before driving toward the next Buy-Side Liquidity pool. The current structure continues to favor buying while the ascending channel remains intact. Will Gold sweep Buy-Side Liquidity above 4,080 first, or revisit demand before the next impulsive rally? > Yến: TradingView MIND Gold Breaks Trendline—Is 4,080 the Next Liquidity Target? 🚀 Gold has reclaimed its bullish channel after breaking the descending trendline, while a softer USD continues to support precious metals. From an SMC perspective, buyers remain in control as long as price holds above 4,000–4,005 demand. The next key obstacle sits at 4,060, where Smart Money could engineer a short-term pullback before continuing higher. If bulls maintain momentum, the market may target the 4,080–4,085 Buy-Side Liquidity zone. 📌 Bias: Bullish 🟢 Buy Zone: 4,000–4,005 🔴 Resistance: 4,060–4,062 🎯 Target: 4,080–4,085 Do you expect Gold to break straight into buy-side liquidity, or will Smart Money retest demand first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mason_Drake
GE Power India - Buy Potential completion of Wave (4)GE Power India Ltd GE Power India completed Wave (3) of Intermediary degree of Wave 3 of Primary Degree on 17 Jun 2026 at 4.272 X of Wave (1) of Primary Degree. Wave (2) had a deep retracement of 61.8%. Wave (4) formation appears to be a Flat with a 3-3-5 sequence as given in the chart. Wave 5 of Wave C seem to have formed at similar level of Sub-wave V of Wave 3 and the stock has started moving and hit upper circuit yesterday. The stock has achieved a retracement of about 38.2% of Wave (3). One may consider going long on the stock with a stop loss 770
NSE:GVPILLong
by ChartTheWave
XAUUSD — 4,035 Is the Reload Zone XAUUSD — 4,035 Is the Reload Zone Gold is starting the week with that heavy feeling still sitting on the chart, almost like every bounce is being used to ask the same question: are buyers strong enough, or are they just giving sellers a better price? Price is holding around the 4,000 area after a weak recovery from 3,982.995, but the bounce has not changed the bigger structure yet. The chart is still printing lower reactions, and the move into the Fibo zone around 4,020 - 4,040 looks more like a retracement than a real reversal. For newer traders, this is the part to slow down: when price drops hard, then climbs back into a 0.5 - 0.618 area without breaking structure, that zone can become a reload area for sellers. That is why my main view is bearish while gold stays below 4,054.121. The wider pressure also supports that idea, with USD demand still firm as geopolitical tension keeps the market defensive. Gold may still bounce in small waves, but unless it can reclaim 4,054.121 and then push toward 4,072.676, the recovery looks limited. The main smart money thesis here is simple: price may be breathing into the Fibo zone before hunting lower liquidity again. If sellers reject 4,020 - 4,040 and gold breaks below 3,982.995, the next downside magnet becomes 3,927.583. This bearish idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims 4,054.121 cleanly and holds above it. A stronger invalidation would be price moving back into the order block and liquidity zone around 4,080 - 4,100. Key price zones to watch Current reaction area: 4,000 - 4,020 Main supply / Fibo reload zone: 4,020 - 4,040 Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 3,982.995 First downside liquidity target: 3,960 Main downside target: 3,927.583 Upper resistance if sellers weaken: 4,054.121 Major order block + liquidity zone: 4,080 - 4,100 Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,054.121, stronger above 4,100 Do you see this bounce as a real recovery attempt, or just a Fibo pullback before gold hunts 3,927?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Felix_MacroTrade
2
XAUUSD — Sell the 4,020–4,030 RetestFundamental Analysis Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and shifts in Fed rate expectations. Softer U.S. data could support a short-term recovery, but renewed dollar strength may keep the broader pressure tilted to the downside. Technical Analysis On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,004.55 below the marked 4,020–4,030 resistance zone. This area previously acted as support and may now become a sell zone after the breakdown. If price recovers into this region and fails to reclaim it, bearish continuation could target the strong support at 3,982.80 before extending toward the descending trendline near 3,925–3,930. Important Key Levels Current price: 4,004.55 Main sell zone: 4,020–4,030 Short-term support: 3,982.80 Short-term resistance: 4,020–4,030 Liquidity area: 4,090–4,108 Main target: 3,925–3,930 Invalidation: above 4,044.50 Trading Scenario Main Sell Setup Entry: 4,020–4,030 Stop Loss: 4,044.50 Take Profit 1: 3,982.80 Take Profit 2: 3,960 Take Profit 3: 3,925.80 Sell Condition Wait for price to retest the 4,020–4,030 zone and show bearish rejection. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed reclaim, or 1H close back below the zone may confirm seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,044.50, the sell setup is no longer valid. Overall View The main bias remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the former support zone and continues to respect the broader descending structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a recovery into 4,020–4,030 rather than chase price near current levels, with 3,982.80 as the first reaction area and 3,925.80 as the main downside target. Do you also see 4,020–4,030 as the key sell zone, or are you waiting for a deeper liquidity sweep first?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAU_Macro_Pulse
1
XAUUSD: Wave 5 bearish trend continues.Gold is still trading under short-term bearish pressure after failing to hold above the recovery trendline. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that price may be preparing for another downside continuation, with wave 5 still open towards the lower Fibonacci target zones. The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but the bearish structure remains valid while price stays below the sell zone. ⟡ Market structure The chart shows gold attempted to recover from the lower area, but the rebound lost strength near the 4,020–4,030 region. Price is now trading around 4,004 and reacting below the broken uptrend line. This is important because the trendline that previously supported the recovery is now acting as a retest area. If gold cannot reclaim this line with strength, the current bounce may only be a correction before the next bearish leg continues. The nearest sell-test area is around 4,005–4,012, while the stronger sell zone wave 4 sits near 4,020–4,030. As long as these zones hold, sellers still have the technical advantage. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4,005–4,012: sell-test trendline zone ◌ 4,020–4,030: sell zone wave 4 and main resistance ◌ 4,004: current price reaction area ◌ 3,982: first buy scalping reaction level ◌ 3,959: next support checkpoint ◌ 3,938–3,945: Fibonacci 1.618 target area ◌ 3,855–3,865: possible wave 5 completion zone ◌ Above 4,030: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence. Wave 1 started the downside move after the recovery failed. Wave 2 created a short rebound but could not break the structure. Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger selling pressure. Wave 4 is now likely forming as a retest into the trendline and sell zone. If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,938–3,945 first, then 3,855–3,865 if momentum expands. This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a bullish reversal yet. The market is still below the key resistance and the Elliott structure still supports one more downside leg. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the sell-test trendline or the sell zone wave 4 and show bearish confirmation. Sell zone: 4,005–4,030 if rejection appears Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,030 Take profit 1: 3,982 Take profit 2: 3,959 Take profit 3: 3,938–3,945 Take profit 4: 3,855–3,865 if wave 5 extends strongly Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,030 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next direction becomes clear. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is still a sell-the-retest structure. Gold has not fully reversed yet, and the current reaction is happening under the broken trendline and wave 4 resistance. The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation near resistance, not chase price while it is already close to support. Gold remains vulnerable below the sell zone. If sellers defend 4,005–4,030, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below. Share your view below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
1
Ending Diagonal in Wave C | Zigzag vs Flat CorrectionOne of the most overlooked Elliott Wave concepts is that Wave C of both Zigzag and Flat corrections can terminate as an Ending Diagonal. This chart compares both corrective structures side by side and highlights their key differences. 📉 Left Side – Zigzag (5-3-5) A Zigzag correction consists of: Wave A: 5-wave Impulse Wave B: 3-wave corrective structure Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal Key Characteristics ✅ Wave B is a corrective move with three subwaves (A-B-C). ✅ Wave B should not make a new high beyond the start of Wave A in a standard Zigzag. ✅ Wave C unfolds as an Ending Diagonal, where: Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1. Trendlines converge. Momentum gradually weakens. The correction often ends with exhaustion before a reversal. 📈 Right Side – Flat (3-3-5) A Flat correction has a different internal structure: Wave A: 3-wave correction Wave B: 3-wave correction Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal Key Characteristics ✅ Wave A itself is corrective, not impulsive. ✅ Wave B commonly retraces most or all of Wave A and can even create a new price high, depending on the Flat variation. ✅ Wave C again develops as a 5-wave Ending Diagonal, showing: Wave 4 overlapping Wave 1. Converging trendlines. Declining momentum. A high-probability reversal near completion. 🔍 Why the Ending Diagonal Matters The Ending Diagonal is a terminal pattern that signals a trend is approaching exhaustion. Important features include: Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1. All five waves subdivide into corrective structures. Price becomes compressed inside converging trendlines. A sharp reversal often follows after Wave 5 completes. ✅ Confirmation for Long Entry Rather than buying during the formation of the Ending Diagonal, confirmation is generally stronger after price breaks above the Wave 4 resistance, indicating that the corrective structure has likely finished and a new impulsive move may be underway. 💡 Educational Takeaway Understanding the difference between Zigzag (5-3-5) and Flat (3-3-5) is essential for identifying the correct Elliott Wave count. Although both patterns can end with an Ending Diagonal in Wave C, the behavior of Wave A and Wave B is what distinguishes them. Recognizing these structural differences can help traders anticipate trend exhaustion and prepare for the next impulsive move. **************************************************************** Warning ⚠ Educational purposes only. This chart illustrates Elliott Wave concepts and one possible market interpretation, not a guaranteed market outcome. #ElliottWave #EndingDiagonal #Zigzag #FlatCorrection #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #TradingEducation #TradingView #PriceAction #NikhilKanal #RECLTD #ElliottWave #Wave3 #ImpulseWave #TechnicalAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #StockMarket #SwingTrading #PositionalTrading #MarketStructure #NSE #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #LeadingDiagonal #Zigzag #DoubleZigzag #TripleZigzag #CorrectiveWaves #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingEducation #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketStructure #StockMarket #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #TradingEducation #MotiveWave #ImpulseWave #LeadingDiagonal #EndingDiagonal #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #StockMarket #MarketStructure #TradingPsychology #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave #TradingEducation #LeadingDiagonal #EndingDiagonal #Triangle #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketStructure #NikhilKanal #ElliottWave
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by iElliottician
2
NIFTY : Trading levels and plan for 20-Jul-2026Reference Close: 24,343.65 | O: 24,328.75 | H: 24,352.65 | L: 24,320.30 Namaste Traders! 🙏 Here's the structured plan for tomorrow's session covering all three opening scenarios — Gap Up, Flat, and Gap Down — considering a gap threshold of 100+ points. Please go through the chart legend before trading. ⬇️ 🗺️ Chart Legend (Important!) • 🟠 Orange Line/Zone (No Trade Zone) — Sideways/consolidation area acting as both support & resistance. Avoid fresh positions here; market is undecided. • 🟢 Green Line — Bullish structure / Long bias confirmed once broken with strength. • 🔴 Red Line — Bearish structure / Short bias confirmed once broken with weakness. • ➖ Dashed Lines (Green/Red) — "Maybe" zones — trend may or may not continue here. Treat as extended targets, not guaranteed moves. Trail SL and book partial profits. 🔑 Key Levels for 20-Jul-2026 • 🟠 No Trade Zone (Support/Resistance): 24,286 – 24,332 • 🟢 Last Intraday Resistance Zone: 24,464 – 24,510 • 🟢 Opening Support (Gap Down Open Case): 24,245 • 🟢 Last Intraday Support: 24,169 • 🟢 Deeper Support: 24,086 🟢 SCENARIO 1: GAP UP OPENING (100+ points, i.e., open above ~24,432) 📘 Explanation: A gap up of 100+ points takes the market well above the No Trade Zone (24,286–24,332), landing it directly near or inside the Last Intraday Resistance zone (24,464–24,510). This reflects strong positive momentum carried from global cues or overnight news flow. 📌 Plan of Action: • If Nifty opens above 24,432 and sustains above 24,464–24,510 on 15-min candle close basis → Bullish continuation confirmed (green breakout). • 🎯 Enter long only on a retest & hold of 24,464–24,510 as support — avoid chasing the first green candle. • Target 1: 24,560 | Target 2: dashed green extension zone (trend "may" extend further — trail SL and book partials as momentum can fade near round figures). • Stop Loss: Below 24,464 (zone breakdown invalidates the bullish setup). • ⚠️ If price gaps up but slips back into the No Trade Zone (24,286–24,332), treat it as a gap-fill trap — wait for fresh confirmation before re-entering. • For Options: Prefer Bull Call Spread or slightly OTM Calls with strict SL; avoid aggressive naked buying right at open due to IV crush risk after a gap. 📌 📌 📌 🟠 SCENARIO 2: FLAT OPENING (Within ±100 points, inside/near No Trade Zone 24,286–24,332) 📘 Explanation: A flat opening means the gap is under 100 points and price opens within or close to the No Trade Zone. This zone acts as a pivot battle area between bulls and bears — as seen in the orange zig-zag pattern on the chart, expect choppy price action until a clear breakout. 📌 Plan of Action: • 🚫 Avoid trading immediately at open — this is a "No Trade Zone." Allow the first 15–30 minutes to establish direction. • If price breaks above 24,332 and sustains → shift bias to bullish, follow Gap Up scenario targets (24,464 → 24,510 → 24,560). • If price breaks below 24,286 and sustains → shift bias to bearish, follow Gap Down scenario targets (24,245 → 24,169 → 24,086). • 🎯 Best approach: Wait for a breakout + retest on either side of the No Trade Zone before committing capital. • For Options: This is the ideal zone for Option Sellers (Iron Condor / Short Straddle with hedge) since range-bound moves favor time decay. Directional traders should stay patient until breakout confirmation. 📌 📌 📌 🔴 SCENARIO 3: GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ points, i.e., open below ~24,186) 📘 Explanation: A gap down of 100+ points pushes the market below the No Trade Zone toward the Opening Support (24,245) and further down to Last Intraday Support (24,169). This suggests weak overnight sentiment with sellers dictating the early move. 📌 Plan of Action: • If Nifty opens below 24,186 and sustains below 24,245 on 15-min candle close basis → Bearish continuation confirmed (red breakdown). • 🎯 Enter short only on a pullback/retest of 24,245–24,169 zone turning into resistance — don't short blindly on the opening candle. • Target 1: 24,169 | Target 2: 24,086 (dashed red extension zone — trend "may" extend further, book partial profits and trail SL as this is a deeper support cluster). • Stop Loss: Above 24,245 (reclaim of this level invalidates the bearish setup). • ⚠️ Watch for a sharp V-shape recovery back into the No Trade Zone — if 24,286 is reclaimed intraday, exit shorts immediately. • For Options: Prefer Bear Put Spread or slightly OTM Puts with a defined SL; avoid over-leveraging on gap-down panic since sharp pullback rallies are common after such gaps. 📌 📌 📌 ⚙️ RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS FOR OPTIONS TRADING 🛡️ • 💰 Never risk more than 1–2% of total capital on a single options trade. • 📉 Always use a hard Stop Loss — options decay fast; don't rely on mental SL. • ⏱️ Avoid buying options right at market open during high volatility — let IV settle for the first 10-15 minutes. • 🎯 Book partial profits at Target 1, trail SL to cost for the remaining position at Target 2. • 🚫 Avoid overtrading in the No Trade Zone — capital preservation is a win too. • 📊 Always align option strikes with liquidity (tight bid-ask spread) to avoid slippage. • 🧘 Avoid revenge trading after a SL hit — stick to the plan, not emotions. • 📅 Be mindful of time decay (Theta) — avoid holding weekly options overnight without strong conviction. • 🔄 On gap openings, wait for the first candle to close before deciding entry — gap opens often see immediate reversal (gap-fill) moves. 📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION Tomorrow's session revolves around the No Trade Zone (24,286–24,332), which is acting as a key pivot. A Gap Up (100+) opens the path toward 24,464–24,510 and further to 24,560 (bullish path 🟢). A Gap Down (100+) opens the path toward 24,245 → 24,169 → 24,086 (bearish path 🔴). A Flat opening keeps the market range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs — patience is essential here 🟠. Always wait for confirmation candles, respect stop losses, and manage position sizing carefully. Trade the plan, not your emotions! 🎯 ⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment/trading advice. Please consult your financial advisor and do your own research before making any trading/investment decisions. Trading in equities/options/derivatives is subject to market risk. 🙏
NSE:NIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox