Short
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD NEEDS A PULLBACK BEFORE THE NEXT BUY BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD NEEDS A PULLBACK BEFORE THE NEXT BUY
Gold is still recovering from the weekly low, but the current price is not in the best buy location anymore.
This week, most of the previous plans were built around one idea: do not chase gold in the middle. Wait for price to return into value, then trade the reaction. That approach remains valid now.
Gold has bounced strongly from the lower value area, but price is currently losing momentum below the POC Rejection Zone. This means the market may need to sell first before giving a cleaner buy opportunity.
Weekly recap
Earlier this week, gold reacted from the lower support area and started to rebuild above the VAL zone.
After that, price pushed into resistance but failed to break strongly above the upper value structure.
The latest chart now shows gold stuck between resistance above and buy value below.
The main message for the week is clear: buyers are active from lower value, but they still need better price location.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold rejected near the upper resistance and is now trading below the POC Rejection Zone around 4,140 - 4,145.
This area is important because sellers may defend it again if price tries to recover too early.
The key buy area I am watching is the VAL Buy Reaction zone around 4,070 - 4,075. This is the cleaner value zone where buyers previously showed strength.
If price sells down into this area and holds, gold can build another bullish reaction.
Important zones
VAH Sell Zone: 4,175 - 4,180
Upper resistance and major sell reaction area.
POC Rejection Zone: 4,140 - 4,145
Current resistance and failed recovery zone.
VAL Buy Reaction: 4,070 - 4,075
Main buy area after a pullback.
Current price area: 4,110 - 4,115
Middle zone, not the best place to chase.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from VAL Buy Reaction 4,070 - 4,075
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price sells down into 4,070 - 4,075 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the VAL Buy Reaction zone or below the local sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,110
TP2: 4,140 - 4,145
TP3: 4,175 - 4,180
This setup is based on waiting for gold to return into a stronger Volume Profile support zone instead of buying directly under resistance.
Final view
Gold still has recovery potential, but I do not want to chase price here.
The better plan is simple: let gold sell first into 4,070 - 4,075, then watch if buyers defend the VAL zone again.
If that area holds, the next rebound can target 4,140 and possibly 4,175.
If 4,070 fails, the recovery structure becomes weak again.
Let price reach value. Then trade the reaction.
Short
Short
Long 
Long
XAUUSD — Bullish Channel Holds Above Buy Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is still reacting to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while price continues to hold inside the rising channel.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,142 and still respecting the bullish channel structure. The main buy order trendline zone is around 4,141 - 4,143. If price holds this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend and push gold toward the liquidity zone at 4,144, then the mid-channel resistance around 4,145 - 4,146. A stronger breakout above this area may open the way toward the main target around 4,152.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,142
Main buy zone: 4,141 - 4,143
Short-term support: 4,140
Liquidity resistance: 4,144
Mid-channel resistance: 4,145 - 4,146
Main target: 4,152
Invalidation: below 4,140
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,141 - 4,143
Stop Loss: 4,140
Take Profit 1: 4,144
Take Profit 2: 4,145 - 4,146
Take Profit 3: 4,152
Buy Condition
Wait for gold to retest the 4,141 - 4,143 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above the trendline keeps the bullish setup valid. If price breaks above 4,144, upside momentum becomes stronger toward 4,145 - 4,146 and 4,152. If price breaks and holds below 4,140, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
XAUUSD remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel and holds above the buy order trendline zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,141 - 4,143, then look for continuation toward 4,144, 4,146, and 4,152.
Do you share the same bullish view on gold, or are you waiting for confirmation above the liquidity zone first?
Short 
XAUUSD — Buy Trend Holding Above 4,100 Liquidity
Gold is trading around $4,118 after recovering from the lower structure near $4,022. The current price is holding above the $4,100–$4,107 buy zone liquidity, while the market has already created a short-term CHOCH and BOS after the previous downside move.
From an SMC perspective, gold has shifted from the lower liquidity area into a recovery structure. The market is now correcting under the descending trendline, but the structure is not bearish as long as price holds above the main buy zone. The $4,100–$4,107 area is important because it is where liquidity may be tested before buyers attempt another bullish continuation.
The main plan is to wait for gold to respect the buy zone liquidity and build confirmation. If buyers defend $4,100–$4,107, gold may push back toward $4,137 first. A clean break above this level and the descending trendline would confirm stronger bullish continuation toward the upper OB area and the buy-side liquidity around $4,221.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,100–$4,107 buy zone liquidity and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,100–$4,107
SL: below $4,080
TP1: $4,137
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,190–$4,200
TP4: $4,221
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above the descending trendline and retests it as support, bullish continuation remains valid without waiting for a deeper pullback.
Entry: above $4,137 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,100
TP1: $4,160
TP2: $4,190–$4,200
TP3: $4,221
Buy setup 3
Condition:
If gold drops deeper but still holds the lower buy zone around $4,065–$4,075, this can create a secondary liquidity-buy setup.
Entry: $4,065–$4,075 after bullish rejection
SL: below $4,022
TP1: $4,100–$4,107
TP2: $4,137
TP3: $4,190–$4,200
Sell setup
Condition:
Selling is not the main priority. A sell setup is only valid if gold fails to hold above $4,100–$4,107 and breaks the lower structure clearly.
Entry: below $4,080 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,107
TP1: $4,065–$4,075
TP2: $4,022
TP3: $3,960
Key levels
Current price area: $4,118
Main buy zone liquidity: $4,100–$4,107
Secondary buy zone: $4,065–$4,075
Major low support: $4,022
Short-term breakout level: $4,137
Trendline resistance: around $4,137–$4,150
Upper OB reaction zone: $4,190–$4,200
Buy-side liquidity: $4,221
Bullish continuation confirmation: clean break above $4,137
Stronger bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,160
Bullish invalidation: clean 2H close below $4,022
My current view is that gold still has a buy-side structure as long as price holds above the $4,100–$4,107 liquidity zone. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid chasing price in the middle, wait for confirmation around the buy zone or after a breakout above the descending trendline, then follow the move toward $4,137, $4,160 and potentially $4,221.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
XAUUSD 4140 FVG rejected — 4083 next XAUUSD 4140 FVG rejected — 4083 next
That rejection from 4,140 is the read.
Gold pushed into the FVG, tapped premium, then started stalling right where it should not stall if buyers were really strong. That’s not clean continuation. That’s supply sitting there.
Yeah, price did bounce after the ChoCH. Fine. But look where it bounced into. Straight into 4,125 - 4,140. That FVG is the problem zone now.
Buyers had their chance.
They needed to break above 4,140 and hold. They didn’t. Now price is sitting around 4,115, right on the EMA cluster. Messy spot. But if this cluster breaks, the move can get ugly fast.
Main bias is bearish while gold stays below 4,140.
I’m watching 4,108 - 4,099. That is the small floor. If sellers crack that area, the next liquidity draw is 4,083. After that, 4,057 is very possible. And if pressure really expands, 4,028 becomes the deeper target.
This feels like a premium rejection after the recovery leg. Not a place where I want to chase buys.
Trading scenario:
Sell idea only if price rejects 4,125 - 4,140 again or breaks below 4,108 with strong candles.
Entry zone: 4,125 - 4,140 after rejection
Alternative entry: below 4,108 after breakdown confirmation
Stop loss: above 4,150
TP1: 4,099
TP2: 4,083
TP3: 4,057
Final target: 4,028
No clean rejection, no sell. No breakdown, no chase.
If gold closes back above 4,150, this bearish idea gets invalidated. Then buyers can try to drag price back toward 4,170. But until that happens, I’m reading this as FVG rejection first, downside liquidity next.
You selling this 4,140 reaction or waiting for 4,108 to snap?
Short 
Long
NIFTY — Trading Plan | 10 July 2026
📅 15-Min Chart Analysis | Post Multi-Day Crash | Educational Purpose Only
⚠️ Chart Colour Guide — Read Before Proceeding:
🟠 Orange Zone = No Trade / Sideways / Wait & Watch
🟢 Green Line/Zone = Bullish Bias / Long Setup
🔴 Red Line/Zone = Bearish Bias / Short Setup
- - - Dashed Lines = Probable path only — always wait for confirmation
🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR 10-JUL-2026
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance → 24,243 – 24,276 ← Strong Supply Zone
🔴 Critical Bull/Bear Line → 24,090 ← Most Important Level
🟠 CMP / Reference Close → 23,981.90
🟠 Opening Support Zone → 23,874 – 23,969 ← MAIN ORANGE PIVOT ⚡
🟢 Low Reference → 23,873.95
🟢 Last Intraday Support → 23,739 ← Key Green Line
🟢 Extended Bear Target → 23,638 ← Major Green Support
💡 10-Jul Market Context:
🔵 After two massive crash sessions — 09-Jul showed a strong recovery candle ✅
🔵 Nifty closed at 23,981.90 (+41.40 pts) — recovering ~180+ points from day lows
🔵 This recovery candle is important — BUT confirmation needed above 24,090
🔵 The orange zone 23,874–23,969 is the main battleground for tomorrow
🔵 24,090 is the single most critical bull/bear dividing line 🎯
🔵 Dashed lines on chart show probable paths — green (recovery) and red (continuation fall)
🚀 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (100+ Points)
📍 Opens Above: 24,081 (23,981 + 100)
📖 Why This Scenario Matters:
A 100+ point gap up after yesterday's recovery close would open Nifty directly near or above the critical 24,090 red resistance line. This is the most important level on the chart — the line that separates bulls from bears.
🔸 Gap up above 24,090 = Bulls attempting a definitive trend reversal after two crash days
🔸 This gap represents aggressive short covering + fresh institutional buying
🔸 However — gap ups into resistance are classic trap setups — must confirm with 15-min close
🔸 If 24,090 sustains = Short squeeze can push to 24,243–24,276 (red resistance box)
🔸 If 24,090 rejects = Gap fill trade back toward orange zone and below
Two completely opposite outcomes are possible. Patience is the only edge here. ⏳
⏳ First 15 Minutes — Strictly No Trade
Let the first complete 15-min candle form. Observe volume and direction.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Sustains Above 24,090:
🔵 Entry → Buy above 24,100 (15-min candle close above red line)
🔵 Target 1 → 24,150
🔵 Target 2 → 24,200
🔵 Target 3 → 24,243 – 24,276 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance Box)
🔵 Stop Loss → Below 24,050 (back below red line = bull trap)
📌 Options: Buy 24,100 CE or 24,200 CE
⚡ Enter only on confirmed 15-min candle close above 24,090
⚡ Book 50% at T1 — trail rest with candle SL
⚡ Elevated IV after crash = Buy smaller quantity ⚠️
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Fails at 24,090 (Sell the Bounce):
🔵 Entry → Short below 24,060 (rejection from red resistance confirmed)
🔵 Target 1 → 23,981 (gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 2 → 23,969 (orange zone upper boundary)
🔵 Target 3 → 23,874 🎯 (orange zone lower boundary)
🔵 Target 4 → 23,739 🎯 (Last Intraday Support — green line)
🔵 Stop Loss → Above 24,100 (breakout above resistance = plan invalid)
📌 Options: Buy 24,000 PE or 23,900 PE on confirmed rejection
⚡ "Sell the bounce" after crash = High probability setup
⚡ Book 50% at T1 (gap fill) — trail rest for T2-T4
⚡ Fast execution needed — don't chase after first 30 minutes
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE: 24,050 – 24,100
(Market testing critical resistance = Maximum chop + fake moves) ⛔
"Gap up into resistance after a crash looks bullish but often isn't. Let the market prove itself — your capital deserves that respect." 🎯
➡️ SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±50 Points)
📍 Opens Near: 23,931 – 24,031
📖 Why This Scenario Matters:
A flat opening near 23,981 places Nifty in a very tight squeeze zone — above the orange pivot zone (23,874–23,969) and below the critical 24,090 resistance. This is the most complex scenario because:
🔸 Market is sandwiched between key support below and key resistance above
🔸 On a flat open — the orange zone 23,874–23,969 is your battlefield
🔸 Breakout above 24,090 = Recovery story confirmed ✅
🔸 Breakdown below 23,874 = Crash continuation ❌
🔸 Stay between both = Sideways chop (orange zone behaviour)
The flat open demands maximum patience — the first 30 minutes will attempt to trap both sides. ⚠️
⏳ First 30 Minutes — Extended Wait on Flat Open
Give the market time to establish direction. Opening range (first 30-min high/low) is your reference.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Breakout Above 24,090:
🔵 Entry → Buy above 24,100 (strong 15-min candle close above red line)
🔵 Target 1 → 24,150
🔵 Target 2 → 24,200
🔵 Target 3 → 24,243 – 24,276 🎯 (Red Resistance Box — major bull target)
🔵 Stop Loss → Below 24,050
📌 Options: Buy 24,100 CE or 24,150 CE on confirmed breakout
⚡ Wait for 15-min candle CLOSE — not just a wick above 24,090
⚡ Book 50% at T1 — trail rest with candle-based SL
⚡ Strong volume on breakout candle = Higher conviction ✅
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Breakdown Below 23,874:
🔵 Entry → Short below 23,870 (orange zone lower boundary breakdown)
🔵 Target 1 → 23,800
🔵 Target 2 → 23,739 🎯 (Last Intraday Support — green line)
🔵 Target 3 → 23,638 🎯 (Extended Bear Target — lower green line)
🔵 Stop Loss → Above 23,969 (back inside orange zone = plan fails)
📌 Options: Buy 23,800 PE or 23,700 PE on confirmed breakdown
⚡ Crash continuation trades = Follow the trend with trailing SL
⚡ Book 40% at T1, 40% at T2 — trail 20% for T3
⚡ Do NOT average if trade goes against — cut and reassess 🚫
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE: 23,874 – 24,090
(Classic compression zone — premium destruction territory) ⛔
🔵 Market oscillating in this zone = Both CE and PE buyers losing money
🔵 Only option sellers benefit from sideways action
🔵 Best strategy = Sit out completely. Observe. Wait for clear break. 🧘
"Flat open between support and resistance on a post-crash day = The market hasn't made its decision. Respect that. Let it decide first — then follow." ⚖️
📉 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ Points)
📍 Opens Below: 23,881 (23,981 - 100)
📖 Why This Scenario Matters:
A 100+ point gap down after yesterday's recovery attempt would be a deeply bearish signal — suggesting yesterday's bounce was just a temporary relief rally before further selling. This would:
🔸 Open Nifty directly inside or below the orange pivot zone (23,874–23,969)
🔸 Immediately threaten the 23,739 Last Intraday Support (green line)
🔸 Place the 23,638 extended bear target (lower green line) in immediate focus
🔸 Signal possible third consecutive crash leg — rare but powerful bearish signal
🔸 Create panic selling environment — maximum emotional decision-making from retail
This is the highest-risk scenario — smallest position size and maximum patience required. ⚠️
Two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ Final washout → Market falls to 23,739–23,638 support, finds strong buyers, bounces hard
2️⃣ Crash continuation → Breaks all support, dashed red path continues lower
⏳ First 15-20 Minutes — Absolute No Trade
Let the opening panic exhaust. Look for selling climax candle (massive red followed by sharp recovery) OR lower highs on any bounce attempt.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Bounce from 23,739 Support:
🔵 Entry → Buy above 23,760 (confirmed bounce from green support line)
🔵 Target 1 → 23,874 (orange zone lower boundary)
🔵 Target 2 → 23,969 🎯 (orange zone upper boundary)
🔵 Target 3 → 23,981 (full gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 4 → 24,090 🎯 (critical resistance — exceptional recovery)
🔵 Stop Loss → Below 23,700 (below green support = bounce failed)
📌 Options: Buy 23,800 CE or 23,900 CE on confirmed bounce above 23,760
⚡ Bounce from major support on gap down = High reward when it works
⚡ BUT — if it fails, losses are equally fast and large
⚡ Maximum 1 lot strictly — no exceptions in gap down scenario
⚡ Book 60% at T1 — protect capital aggressively on bounce trades
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — All Support Breaks Below 23,739:
🔵 Entry → Short below 23,720 (confirmed break of green support line)
🔵 Target 1 → 23,638 🎯 (Extended Bear Target — lower green line)
🔵 Target 2 → 23,500 (intermediate support)
🔵 Target 3 → 23,381 🎯 (Major structural support — extreme bear target)
🔵 Stop Loss → Above 23,780 (back above green support = plan invalid)
📌 Options: Buy 23,700 PE or 23,600 PE on confirmed break below 23,720
⚡ Three-day crash momentum = Very powerful if continuation activates
⚡ Near-the-money strikes only — better delta, faster response
⚡ Absolute minimum position size — volatility can reverse sharply
⚡ Never average down on options in this scenario 🚫
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE: 23,700 – 23,874
(Gap down confusion zone — bounce and breakdown both equally likely) ⛔
🔵 Maximum whipsaw risk in this zone
🔵 Neither bulls nor bears have clear control
🔵 Do absolutely nothing here — wait for clear directional break ⛔
"Gap down after a recovery attempt demands the most discipline. The market is testing whether yesterday's buyers were right or wrong. Let the verdict come — don't front-run it." 💪
💡 Gap Down Key Alert:
🚨 If Nifty gaps down into 23,739 directly — watch this level with extreme care. This is the last meaningful support before 23,638. A strong bounce here = Best long setup of the week. A break here = Serious trouble for bulls. 🦅
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS FOR OPTIONS TRADING
📌 Tip 1 — Post Multi-Day Crash = Reduce Size Significantly:
🔵 Two massive crash sessions have elevated IV significantly
🔵 High IV = Expensive premiums = Higher loss if direction is wrong
🔵 Trade maximum 50% of your normal position size until market stabilizes
🔵 Smaller size = Clearer thinking = Better decisions 🧠
📌 Tip 2 — The 15-Min Candle Close Rule:
🔵 Never enter on a wick break of any level
🔵 Wait for the 15-min candle to fully CLOSE above/below the level
🔵 Wicks are used to trigger retail SLs before the real move
🔵 Candle close = Market commitment to that direction ✅
🔵 This rule alone eliminates 70% of false breakout losses
📌 Tip 3 — Premium Stop Loss Rule:
🔵 Bought CE/PE at ₹100 → Mandatory exit at ₹62-65 (35% SL)
🔵 After a crash — premiums are expensive and fall faster than normal
🔵 Set this SL before entry — not after you see losses mounting
🔵 "Hope is not a risk management strategy." ⚠️
📌 Tip 4 — Strike Selection Rule:
🔵 Nifty at ~23,981 → Only trade these strikes:
→ ✅ ATM: 24,000 CE / 24,000 PE
→ ✅ 1 OTM: 24,100 CE / 23,900 PE
→ ❌ Deep OTM: 24,500 CE or 23,500 PE (avoid completely)
🔵 Deep OTM after crash = High IV + Far from market = Double danger 🎰
📌 Tip 5 — Book Profits in Stages:
🔵 Always split your exit into stages:
→ 📌 50% at Target 1 — lock in guaranteed profit
→ 📌 30% at Target 2 — ride the momentum
→ 📌 20% trail — with 15-min candle SL for maximum profit
🔵 This approach ensures you never give back all profits even if market reverses 💚
📌 Tip 6 — Maximum 2-3 Trades Per Day:
🔵 Post-crash volatile environment = More signals = More temptation
🔵 Limit yourself strictly to 3 trades maximum for the entire session
🔵 After 3rd trade (win or loss) → Close screen. Day done. 📺
🔵 Overtrading in volatile markets = The fastest way to blow your account
📌 Tip 7 — Pre-Market Homework (Do This Every Morning):
🔵 Check Gift Nifty at 8:00 AM → Gap direction indicator
🔵 Check US Markets closing → Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq direction
🔵 Check Asia Markets at 9:00 AM → Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi
🔵 Check India VIX at market open → Above 18 = Extra caution
🔵 Check FII/DII data from 09-Jul on NSE website
🔵 This 15-minute homework = Your trading edge for the entire day 🧭
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
📊 Complete Level Reference Table — 10-Jul-2026:
Zone Level Type Action
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance 24,243 – 24,276 Red Box Strong Sell Zone
🔴 Critical Bull/Bear Line 24,090 Red Line Key Decision Level
🟠 CMP Reference 23,981.90 Blue Previous Close
🟠 Orange Pivot Zone 23,874 – 23,969 Orange No Trade Zone
🟢 Low Reference 23,873.95 Green Support Reference
🟢 Last Intraday Support 23,739 Green Line Key Buy Zone
🟢 Extended Bear Target 23,638 Green Line Major Support
🎯 Overall Bias for 10-Jul-2026:
📌 Short-term bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH based on yesterday's recovery candle
📌 BUT — Bullish ONLY IF 24,090 is reclaimed and sustained with strong candle
📌 Bearish resumes decisively below 23,874 (orange zone lower boundary)
📌 Chart dashed lines show three paths:
→ 🟢 Dashed green = Recovery path → 24,090 → 24,243 → 24,276
→ 🔴 Dashed red = Crash continuation → 23,739 → 23,638
→ 🟠 Dashed path = Sideways chop in orange zone (premium destruction)
🌟 Final Key Takeaways:
🔵 24,090 = Single most important level — the bull/bear war is decided here
🔵 Above 24,090 = Look for longs toward 24,243–24,276 🟢
🔵 Below 23,874 = Look for shorts toward 23,739–23,638 🔴
🔵 Between 23,874–24,090 = Orange zone = No trade = Hands in pocket 🟠
🔵 Dashed lines = Probable paths only — confirmation always mandatory
🔵 Green lines = Support zones — always wait for bounce confirmation
🔵 Red lines = Resistance zones — always wait for rejection confirmation
🔵 Reduce position size significantly in post-crash volatile environment 🛡️
🔵 Capital preservation first — profits will follow discipline 💚
"After a storm, the market always shows its next direction clearly — but only to those who are patient enough to wait for it." 🌅
"Plan the trade. Trade the plan. Respect the levels. Protect the capital. Always." 🔄
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor.
🔴 This post is purely for educational and informational purposes only.
🔴 All levels, scenarios, trade setups and analysis are based on personal technical chart reading and represent NO buy/sell recommendations of any kind.
🔴 Options and futures trading involves substantial financial risk. You can lose your entire invested capital — especially in post-crash volatile sessions.
🔴 Past accuracy does NOT guarantee future performance under any circumstances.
🔴 Always consult a SEBI Registered Financial Advisor before making any trading decisions.
🔴 The author holds no responsibility for any financial gains or losses arising from use of this content.
Trade Safe. Trade Smart. Protect Capital First. Always. 🙏
📊 Nifty 50 Index | 15-Min | NSE | TradingView
📅 10-July-2026 | Post Multi-Day Crash Session
🕗 Published: Post Market Close 09-Jul-2026 | 23:20 IST
👍 Like if this helped! | 🔖 Save for market hours reference!
💬 Bullish above 24,090 or Bearish below 23,874? Drop your view below!
#Nifty #Nifty50 #NiftyAnalysis #TradingPlan #OptionsTrading #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarketIndia #DayTrading #PriceAction #LearnTrading #RiskManagement #NiftyLevels #ChartAnalysis #TradeSmart #IndianMarkets #TradingEducation #MarketRecovery #PostCrash #IndexTrading #TradingLife #FinanceIndia Short 
Long
Long
Long
EURUSD — Bullish Channel Holding Above Buy Zone
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD is still reacting to USD momentum and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while price continues to hold inside the rising channel.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, EURUSD is trading around 1.1426 and still respecting the bullish channel structure. The key buy order trendline zone is around 1.1418 - 1.1426. If price holds this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend and push price toward the liquidity zone at 1.1448, then the mid-channel resistance around 1.1458. A stronger breakout above this area may open the way toward the main target at 1.1526.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 1.1426
Main buy zone: 1.1418 - 1.1426
Short-term support: 1.1400
Liquidity resistance: 1.1448
Mid-channel resistance: 1.1458
Main target: 1.1526
Invalidation: below 1.1400
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 1.1418 - 1.1426
Stop Loss: 1.1400
Take Profit 1: 1.1448
Take Profit 2: 1.1458
Take Profit 3: 1.1526
Buy Condition
Wait for price to retest the 1.1418 - 1.1426 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above this trendline area keeps the bullish setup valid. If price breaks above 1.1448, upside momentum becomes stronger toward 1.1458 and 1.1526. If price breaks and holds below 1.1400, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
EURUSD remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel and holds above the buy order trendline zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 1.1418 - 1.1426, then look for continuation toward 1.1448, 1.1458, and 1.1526.
Do you share the same bullish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for confirmation above 1.1448 first?
Long
Long
XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But The Rising Channel Is Still XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But The Rising Channel Is Still Holding
Gold is pulling back, but the structure is not broken yet.
After price dropped close to the 4,100 area, buyers started to react near the lower boundary of the rising channel. Gold is now trading around 4,125, just above the key buy zone around 4,112.
This is an important moment on the H1 chart. The market is testing whether the recent decline is only a correction inside the bullish channel, or the beginning of a deeper breakdown.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold came under pressure in early Asian trading as geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran continued to create uncertainty across the market.
At the same time, weaker U.S. NFP data has reduced expectations for a more aggressive Fed path. This can limit downside pressure on gold, because softer labour data often supports the idea of easier policy expectations.
For now, the fundamental background is mixed. Geopolitical risk can support gold, while short-term USD strength can pressure price. That is why the technical reaction around the current buy zone becomes very important.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold is still moving inside a rising channel. Price has created higher lows from the late-June base, which means the short-term recovery structure remains active.
The current buy zone around 4,112 is the most important area on the chart. This zone is sitting near the lower channel boundary, where buyers need to defend the structure.
If gold holds above 4,112 and forms a bullish reaction, price may continue higher toward 4,151 first. Above that, the next attention area is around 4,209, where the market may test stronger liquidity and possible resistance.
The major upside resistance remains around 4,276. If buyers can push price through 4,209, the path toward 4,276 becomes more interesting.
However, if gold breaks below 4,112 and loses the lower channel, the bullish structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may return toward the 4,100 area or lower support zones.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,125
Main buy zone: 4,112
Lower channel support: 4,112 – 4,120
Short-term resistance: 4,151
Attention zone: 4,209
Strong resistance: 4,276
Bullish continuation target: 4,209
Main upside target: 4,276
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,112
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Channel Continuation View
If gold holds above the 4,112 buy zone, I will watch for bullish continuation inside the rising channel.
Buy Zone: 4,112 – 4,120
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bullish reaction from channel support
SL: Below 4,112 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,151
TP2: 4,209
TP3: 4,276 if momentum continues
Breakout Buy Scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,151, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next liquidity area.
Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,151, followed by retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,209 – 4,276
Sell Scenario – Only If Channel Support Fails
Sell is not the priority while gold holds above the buy zone. However, if price breaks below 4,112, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Zone: Below 4,112 after confirmation
Entry: Clean breakdown, bearish retest, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,080
TP3: Lower support if selling pressure expands
Invalidation: If price quickly reclaims 4,112 – 4,120, the sell idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is cautious bullish while price stays inside the rising channel.
The pullback near 4,100 created pressure, but buyers are still defending the lower channel area. This means the market has not confirmed a bearish breakdown yet.
The key level for today is 4,112. If this zone holds, gold may continue toward 4,151 and possibly 4,209. If 4,112 fails, the structure changes and sellers may regain short-term control.
For now, gold is at a quiet but important decision point.
Do you think buyers will defend 4,112 and push gold toward 4,209, or will the rising channel break today?
Long 
XAUUSD: Pullback may pave way for higher movementGold is showing a short-term recovery after reacting from the lower exhaustion area near 4,020. From Kelly’s view, the current structure is improving, with price now moving inside a rising channel and forming a possible bullish Elliott sequence.
The key idea is simple: gold is recovering, but the cleaner buy setup may come after a controlled pullback into the wave 4 buy zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold bounced strongly after completing the previous downside move. Price has formed higher lows and is now trading around 4,109, showing that buyers are trying to rebuild short-term momentum.
However, the market is approaching the 4,124 sell wave 3 area, which can create a small rejection or correction before the next upside leg continues.
The 4,095 buy zone wave 4 is the key area to watch. If price pulls back into this zone and holds, the bullish recovery structure remains valid and gold may continue towards the wave 5 completion zone around 4,170.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,095: buy zone wave 4 and key support
◌ 4,109: current reaction area
◌ 4,124: sell wave 3 / short-term resistance
◌ 4,170: wave 5 completion zone
◌ Below 4,095: area where the recovery setup weakens
◌ Below 4,060: area where the bullish structure needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may be building a new bullish 5-wave recovery after the previous bearish sequence ended near the lower base.
Wave 1 started the first recovery push.
Wave 2 corrected but held above the recent low.
Wave 3 is now testing resistance around 4,124.
Wave 4 may form as a pullback into the 4,095 buy zone.
If buyers defend this zone, wave 5 may continue towards 4,170.
This is why Kelly would not chase the current push directly into resistance. The better structure is to wait for price to correct, hold support, then look for the next continuation wave.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to pull back into the wave 4 buy zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,095–4,105 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,080
Take profit 1: 4,124
Take profit 2: 4,150
Take profit 3: 4,170
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,095 and fails to recover, the bullish wave structure weakens. In that case, price may return towards the lower channel area before building a new setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bullish recovery structure, but still a pullback-buy setup rather than a chase-buy setup. Gold has already reacted well from the lower zone, but price is now close to short-term resistance.
The cleanest plan is to watch how gold behaves around 4,095. If buyers protect that area, the next upside wave may continue towards the wave 5 completion zone.
Gold is recovering step by step.
If the wave 4 buy zone holds, the next move may still point higher.
Share your view below. Long 
XAUUSD — 4,098 Became the Spring XAUUSD — 4,098 Became the Spring
Gold gave us a cleaner reaction than the bearish backdrop would make you expect, and that is exactly why this area is interesting.
Price had been heavy before, especially with the wider trend still sitting under the short-term and long-term moving averages. RSI and momentum are not giving a strong bullish story yet either, so I do not want to pretend the whole market has suddenly turned bullish. But on this chart, the short-term price action is telling a slightly different story.
Gold pushed down into the FVG buy zone around 4,029.000, swept the lower area, then started to climb back through the internal FVG near 4,060 - 4,090. That move feels like the market took a deep breath in discount, collected liquidity from late sellers, and then started walking price back toward the upper side of the range.
For me, the main bias is bullish while price holds above 4,098.231. That level is now the line where buyers need to defend the story. If gold stays above it and keeps building higher lows, the next area price may hunt is 4,157.572 first. A clean push above that would open the door for a move toward 4,180.476, which is where the premium zone starts to wake up.
The important detail is this: I am not treating this as a full trend reversal yet. I see it more as a short-term bullish recovery inside a wider bearish environment. If price loses 4,098.231 and fails to recover, the bounce becomes weak, and gold may need to revisit 4,029.000 again.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,120 - 4,130
Main demand / FVG buy zone: 4,000 - 4,029.000
Bullish confirmation zone: 4,157.572
Main upside liquidity target: 4,180.476
Premium reaction zone: 4,180.476 - 4,200
Lower support if buyers fail: 4,029.000
Major lower liquidity: 3,942.070
Invalidation: clean close below 4,098.231
Do you see this as a real recovery from the FVG buy zone, or just a short squeeze before sellers return near the premium zone?
Long 
XAUUSD: Wave 5 decline nears trendline Buy ZoneGold is still trading inside a descending channel, and the current structure shows price continuing lower within wave 5. From Kelly’s view, sellers are still controlling the short-term movement, but the market is now moving closer to a potential exhaustion area near the lower trendline.
The key idea is simple: gold may still complete one more downside leg first, but the better opportunity may come after wave 5 finishes near the trendline support.
⟡ Market structure
Price remains below the descending channel resistance and has rejected from the short-term sell zone around 4,300–4,320. This keeps the immediate structure bearish and supports the idea that wave 5 is still in progress.
The chart also shows a lower trendline buy area around 4,220–4,240. If price continues falling into this zone and starts to slow down, that area may become important for a possible corrective rebound.
For now, gold is still weak, but the lower channel zone is where sellers may begin to lose momentum.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,300–4,320: short-term sell zone
◌ 4,340–4,350: stronger resistance and wave A sell zone
◌ 4,220–4,240: trendline buy zone and wave 5 completion area
◌ 4,423: higher recovery target if rebound develops
◌ Below 4,220: area where the buy setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave move inside the descending channel.
The current decline can still be counted as wave 5, and the projected ending area is near the lower trendline around 4,220–4,240. If price reaches this zone and prints a clear reversal candle, it may suggest that wave 5 is complete.
After that, the market may attempt an A-B-C corrective recovery, with the first important upside reference near 4,300–4,350 and a wider recovery possibility towards 4,423.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to complete wave 5 near the lower trendline, then observe for bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,220–4,240 if a clear reversal candle appears
Stop loss: below 4,210 or below the confirmed reaction low
Take profit 1: 4,300
Take profit 2: 4,340–4,350
Take profit 3: 4,423 if the recovery expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,220 with strong momentum and fails to react, the wave 5 completion setup loses quality and the market may continue lower before forming a new base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is not a place to chase the downside aggressively. The trend is still bearish, but price is moving closer to the lower trendline where wave 5 may complete.
The cleaner plan is to wait for price to reach the 4,220–4,240 zone, then watch whether buyers create a valid reversal candle.
Gold is still falling inside wave 5.
But if the lower trendline holds, the next meaningful move may be a corrective rebound.
Share your view below. Short 
Short 
XAUUSD – Gold Recovers From 4,000, But The Risk Is Not Gone Yet XAUUSD – Gold Recovers From 4,000, But The Risk Is Not Gone Yet
Gold is recovering, but the chart still needs confirmation.
After approaching the 4,000 area, price reacted from the lower liquidity zone and is now trading around 4,106. The short-term recovery looks positive, but gold is still inside a corrective channel and below key resistance.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is supported by rising Middle East tensions, which can boost safe-haven demand. However, overall pressure on precious metals remains, so the market is still cautious.
For now, price reaction around 4,130 and 4,196 is more important than news.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
Gold bounced from the buy order zone near 4,061, showing buyers are defending this level. As long as price holds above 4,061, the recovery can continue.
The first resistance is 4,130. A break above this level could push price toward 4,196. However, 4,196 is a stronger resistance where sellers may react again.
If rejection appears at these levels, gold could pull back toward 4,091 or 4,061.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,106
Buy zone: 4,061
Support: 4,091
Sell zone: 4,130
Main resistance: 4,196
Lower liquidity: 4,020 – 4,030
Invalidation: Below 4,061
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,061 – 4,091
Entry: Bullish reaction or confirmation
SL: Below 4,061
TP1: 4,130
TP2: 4,196
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,130
Target: 4,196
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: 4,130 or 4,196
Entry: Bearish rejection or failed breakout
TP1: 4,091
TP2: 4,061
TP3: 4,020 – 4,030
Invalidation: Above 4,196
MY VIEW ON GOLD
Gold is in a cautious recovery, not a full bullish reversal yet.
As long as 4,061 holds, price can move toward 4,130 and 4,196. But sellers may still react at resistance.
Key question: can gold break and hold above 4,130?
If yes, 4,196 is next. If not, price may return to 4,061.
Long 
