EXICOM – Weekly Analysis – 10% to 44.45% UPSIDE Potential.NSE:EXICOM
Exicom Tele-Systems Ltd. is forming a large **Cup & Handle Breakout** continuation structure on the weekly chart following a rounded recovery from its major base low at ₹75.60 . Price has completed the main cup base and is currently completing its handle consolidation above the major Support / BreakDown zone near ₹126.50 . Currently trading at ₹178.15 (+6.09%), price is testing the immediate EARLY Entry Above trigger level at ₹180.33 , coiling underneath the primary neckline breakout entry at ₹208.84 .
🔹 PATTERN: CUP & HANDLE BREAKOUT & GAP RESISTANCE ZONES
• Cup Structure: A rounded multi-month base extending from the ₹208.84 rim high down to the major low at ₹75.60 .
• Handle Structure: A higher-low pullback consolidation forming above the ₹142.22 – ₹157.94 support band.
• Lower GAP Resistance (DAILY): A key horizontal gap supply band situated near ₹220.00 – ₹230.00 , intersecting directly with TARGET 1 at ₹235.49 .
• Upper GAP Resistance (DAILY): A major overhead gap supply zone situated between ₹284.25 and ₹300.00+ .
🟢 UPSIDE SCENARIO – BULLISH BREAKOUT
• Early Entry Level: ₹180.33 (EARLY Entry Above)
• Primary Breakout Level: ₹208.84 (Breakout Entry)
• Confirmation Required: Weekly candle close above ₹180.33 for early confirmation and above ₹208.84 for primary pattern breakout.
• Target 1: ₹235.49 (+28.76% move from handle base projection)
• Target 2 / REVERSAL: ₹264.00 – ₹275.00 (+44.45% move from handle base projection)
• Gap Target: ₹291.20 (Upper Gap Zone Test)
• Swing Trade Target: ₹342.10
🔴 DOWNSIDE SCENARIO – BEARISH BREAKDOWN
• Weakening Level: Loss of handle support near ₹157.94
• Breakdown Level: Below ₹142.22
• Important Support Levels: ₹157.94 , ₹142.22 , ₹126.50 (Support / BreakDown Zone), ₹107.05 , and major base low at ₹75.60
• Invalidation: A weekly candle close below ₹126.50 invalidates the current Cup & Handle structure.
🔹 MY BREAKOUT & EXIT RULE
If price crosses above a key resistance level (such as ₹180.33, ₹208.84, or ₹235.49) and makes a High above that level, but closes below that same level, I consider it a failed breakout/rejection and the BUYER NEEDS TO EXIT THE TRADE.
High above level + Close below level = Failed breakout → EXIT BUY TRADE.
🎯 MY TRADE ROADMAP
Bullish Breakout Path:
₹180.33 Early Entry Above
↓
₹208.84 Breakout Entry
↓
Lower GAP Resistance (₹220 – ₹230)
↓
₹235.49 – Target 1 (28.76%)
↓
₹264.00 / ₹275.00 – Target 2 / REVERSAL (44.45%)
↓
₹284.25 – ₹291.20 Upper GAP Resistance
↓
₹342.10 – Swing Trade Target
Bearish Breakdown Path:
Rejection near ₹180.33 / ₹208.84
↓
₹157.94 / ₹142.22 Handle Support Zone
↓
₹126.50 Support / BreakDown Zone (Invalidation Level)
↓
₹107.05 Support
🔑 MY VIEW
My preferred setup is bullish, provided price delivers a confirmed breakout above ₹180.33 and subsequently ₹208.84. I am watching for price to clear the immediate handle resistance to initiate momentum toward the primary neckline.
The bullish thesis strengthens once price trades and closes above ₹180.33 (and confirms above ₹208.84), opening the path toward ₹235.49 (Target 1), the ₹264.00 – ₹275.00 zone (Target 2), and ultimately the upper gap zone near ₹291.20 and swing target at ₹342.10. The setup weakens if price fails at resistance and breaks below handle support at ₹142.22. I will consider the breakout confirmed only with a proper weekly candle close above the breakout entries, strictly adhering to my candle-close exit rule if a rejection occurs.
---
This is my technical analysis based on the chart structure, price levels, and patterns shown above. It is not financial advice. Market conditions can change and actual price movement may differ from the projected levels. 
Long
XAUUSD — 4,450 Is the Week’s Pivot XAUUSD — 4,450 Is the Week’s Pivot
Gold is holding around 4,470 before NFP, and the chart feels like it is trying to repair the damage from the earlier selloff rather than continue collapsing straight away.
Price dropped hard from the previous upper structure, moved inside a wide bearish channel, then finally found a reaction from the lower area near 4,280. That bounce was important because it did not stop as a weak correction. Gold pushed back above the short-term structure, printed BOS, and is now sitting near the FVG area around 4,480 - 4,520.
For newer traders, this is the part to watch carefully. When price breaks down, then climbs back into the old imbalance, the first reaction can be messy. The market often needs to breathe into a smaller buy zone first before deciding whether buyers really have control again.
My main view is bullish while gold holds above the FVG Buy Order zone around 4,445 - 4,460. That area is sitting near the rising support line, so if price dips into it and reacts, I would see it as buyers trying to reload before another push higher. The macro background also gives gold some support: Fed hike expectations are cooling after comments about slowing price pressure, but NFP can still create sharp volatility.
If buyers defend 4,445 - 4,460, the next area I expect gold to test is 4,500 - 4,520. A clean break above the descending channel would make the recovery stronger and could open the way toward 4,560 - 4,590.
This bullish idea becomes weak if gold loses 4,445 and fails to recover. Below that, the lower FVG around 4,350 - 4,365 becomes the next area where buyers may need to step in again.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,460 - 4,480
Main demand / FVG Buy Order: 4,445 - 4,460
Bullish confirmation zone: clean hold above 4,460
First upside target: 4,500 - 4,520
Main upside target: 4,560 - 4,590
Lower FVG support if buyers fail: 4,350 - 4,365
Major lower support: 4,280 - 4,300
Invalidation: clean close below 4,445
Do you see this 4,450 zone as the place where buyers reload before NFP, or does gold need one deeper sweep before the next bullish push?
Long
XAUUSD — Bullish Setup From 4,425XAUUSD — Bullish Setup From 4,425
Gold is building a bullish recovery structure after completing the previous bearish wave 5 near the lower demand zone. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be preparing for another upside leg if buyers continue to defend the End wave C / Buy zone.
The key idea is simple: gold may correct slightly first, but as long as price holds above the buy zone, the bullish structure remains valid toward the upper liquidity area.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold reacted strongly from the 4,280–4,300 area, where the previous downside wave appears to have completed. After that, price created a new bullish impulse and is now consolidating around 4,472–4,488.
The most important support is the 4,420–4,430 Buy zone. This zone is marked as the potential end of wave C. If price pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, gold may start a new bullish wave.
The first confirmation area is around 4,488–4,500. A clean break above this zone would support stronger upside continuation toward 4,525–4,550, then the major liquidity target near 4,615–4,630.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,472–4,488
◌ End wave C / Buy zone: 4,420–4,430
◌ Bullish confirmation: above 4,500
◌ First upside target: 4,525–4,550
◌ Main liquidity target: 4,615–4,630
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,400
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart shows that the previous bearish wave 5 may have already completed around 4,280–4,300.
From that low, gold is now forming a new recovery structure. The current pullback may be part of an ABC correction before the next bullish wave develops.
If wave C ends around 4,420–4,430, buyers may push price higher again. The next upside sequence can target 4,500, then 4,550, and finally the liquidity zone around 4,615–4,630.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys at the current price. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to confirm support or break above the short-term liquidity level.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,420–4,430 if price gives bullish confirmation from the End wave C / Buy zone
Stop Loss: Below 4,400
Take Profit 1: 4,500
Take Profit 2: 4,525–4,550
Take Profit 3: 4,615–4,630
Alternative entry
If gold breaks and holds above 4,500, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,525–4,550 without waiting for a deeper pullback.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,400 and fails to reclaim the buy zone. In that case, the recovery structure may need more correction before a new bullish setup appears.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view is bullish while gold holds above 4,420–4,430. The market has already reacted strongly from the lower demand area, and the current movement looks more like a correction before continuation.
If buyers defend the buy zone and price breaks above 4,500, gold may continue toward 4,550 and the main liquidity zone near 4,615–4,630.
Do you think gold will retest the buy zone first, or break above 4,500 directly? Long 
Long
ADANIGREEN (1D): Trendline Breakout WatchThe price is approaching a heavy confluence zone: the multi-month descending trendline and the moving average (blue curve) sitting right at 1,328.0. As your annotation correctly identifies, buying before it clears this zone is risky, as the stock could easily face rejection at this dual resistance.
Key Levels
Overhead Resistance: 1,328 – 1,335 (Moving average & descending trendline).
Crucial Support: 1,210 – 1,220 (Recent structural swing low).
Invalidation Level: Below 1,200.
Trade Setup: Bullish Breakout & Retest (~70% Probability)
Your plan to "wait until it cross 1335 and sustain" is the textbook way to play this setup.
Trigger: Wait for a definitive daily candle close above 1,335.
Entry: Enter long on the confirmed breakout, or for a safer entry, wait for a pullback/retest of the 1,328 – 1,335 zone once that old resistance becomes a new support floor.
Targets:
Target 1: 1,420 – 1,440 (Next immediate structural supply zone).
Target 2: 1,520 – 1,560 (Previous major swing highs).
Stop-Loss: A strict daily close back below 1,280 after the breakout occurs.
Invalidation: A sharp bearish rejection off the 1,328 moving average that fails to break the 1,335 level completely invalidates the long setup. This would shift momentum back toward the 1,210 support base.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis deals in probabilities. Always employ strict risk management and utilize stop-losses to protect your capital. 
Long
Short
XAU/USD - Buyers Defend, Recover Aim 4.630Hi traders, is Gold starting to rebuild after the sharp correction from 4,700?
OANDA:XAUUSD has reacted well from the 4,310–4,380 buy zone after a deep pullback from the 4,700 high. Buyers are stepping back in, but price is still working through the Ichimoku Cloud, so I want to see the recovery hold rather than chase the first bounce.
If 4,310–4,380 continues to act as support and Gold regains stronger acceptance above the cloud, I favor a recovery toward:
🎯 Target: 4,630
The macro backdrop is helping the bounce. Gold is higher today as the US Dollar and Treasury yields ease, while softer private payroll data has reduced some of the pressure from Fed hike expectations. Friday’s NFP remains the bigger catalyst, so volatility can stay elevated.
A sustained H4 move below 4,310 would damage the recovery setup and suggest the correction is not finished.
AURICVERSE View: the drop from 4,700 was aggressive, but buyers have now responded from a meaningful area. The next question is whether they can turn that reaction into structure. Hold 4,310–4,380, reclaim the cloud, and 4,630 comes back into focus.
Would you buy the recovery here, or wait for one more confirmation? Long 
BTC/USDT - Holds Strong, Next Bulls SessionHi traders, Bitcoin is compressing again but sellers still haven’t broken the floor.
After the strong rally, BINANCE:BTCUSDT has spent several sessions consolidating beneath a descending trendline. The important part is that 76,000–77,500 continues to absorb selling pressure, while price is now pressing back against short-term resistance.
For me, the cleaner bullish trigger is a break above the descending trendline while the support zone remains intact. If buyers confirm that move, I favor another expansion toward:
🎯 Target: 81,500
A sustained H2 move below 76,000 would weaken the setup and suggest this consolidation is turning into something deeper.
AURICVERSE View: BTC doesn’t need another prediction here. It needs two things: 76K to keep holding and the trendline to give way. Get both, and 81.5K comes back into focus.
Breakout next, or one more sweep of support first? 
Long
XAU/USD - Buyers Defend Reset, 4.630 Back in PlayGood day Traders, is Gold starting to rebuild after the sharp correction from 4,700?
OANDA:XAUUSD has reacted well from the 4,310–4,380 buy zone after a deep pullback from the 4,700 high. Buyers are stepping back in, but price is still working through the Ichimoku Cloud, so I want to see the recovery hold rather than chase the first bounce.
If 4,310–4,380 continues to act as support and Gold regains stronger acceptance above the cloud, I favor a recovery toward:
🎯 Target: 4,630
The macro backdrop is helping the bounce. Gold is higher today as the US Dollar and Treasury yields ease, while softer private payroll data has reduced some of the pressure from Fed hike expectations. Friday’s NFP remains the bigger catalyst, so volatility can stay elevated.
A sustained H4 move below 4,310 would damage the recovery setup and suggest the correction is not finished.
AURICVERSE View: the drop from 4,700 was aggressive, but buyers have now responded from a meaningful area. The next question is whether they can turn that reaction into structure. Hold 4,310–4,380, reclaim the cloud, and 4,630 comes back into focus.
Would you buy the recovery here, or wait for one more confirmation? Long 
Long
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 04_Sep-2026
🗓️ Date: 04-Sep-2026 | Index: NIFTY 50 | Timeframe: 15 Min
📍 Previous Close: 23,904.85
════════════════════════════════
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH TODAY
════════════════════════════════
🟢 Major Resistance Zone : 24,100 – 24,125
🟡 Opening Resistance Zone : 23,949 – 23,990
🔵 Immediate Support Zone : 23,836
🔴 Major Support Zone : 23,632
Gap Reference (100+ pts):
⬆️ Gap Up Zone → Open above 24,005
➡️ Flat Zone → Open between 23,805 – 24,005
⬇️ Gap Down Zone → Open below 23,805
════════════════════════════════
📘 EDUCATIONAL NOTE
════════════════════════════════
Gap openings (Up/Down) reflect overnight sentiment from global cues, SGX/GIFT Nifty, FII/DII flows or news events. However, the FIRST 15-30 minutes candle is crucial — it tells us whether the gap will sustain (trend continuation) or get filled (reversal/trap). Always wait for confirmation before committing capital. 🕒
════════════════════════════════
🟩 SCENARIO 1: GAP UP OPENING (100+ points, Open > 24,005)
════════════════════════════════
👉 Explanation: A gap-up of 100+ points shows strong bullish overnight sentiment. However, since price opens near/above our Major Resistance (24,100-24,125), chances of profit booking are high at open.
✅ Plan of Action:
1️⃣ If Nifty opens & sustains above 24,125 with good volume → Bullish continuation. Buy on dips near 24,100-24,090 with SL below 24,050. Target 24,200 / 24,250.
2️⃣ If Nifty opens near 24,050-24,100 and fails to cross 24,125 → Expect a pullback towards 23,990-23,949 (gap fill zone). Avoid fresh longs at open; wait for retest.
3️⃣ If price breaks below 23,949 after gap-up → Sign of exhaustion/trap. Consider bearish trade with target 23,836.
⚠️ Caution: Never chase a gap-up with market orders. Let the first 15-min candle close before entry. ⏳
════════════════════════════════
🟨 SCENARIO 2: FLAT OPENING (Open between 23,805 – 24,005)
════════════════════════════════
👉 Explanation: A flat opening means market is in consolidation/indecision mode. Price is likely to respect the Opening Resistance (23,949-23,990) and Immediate Support (23,836) range initially.
✅ Plan of Action:
1️⃣ Range-bound Approach: Sell near 23,949-23,990 zone with SL above 24,000; Target 23,900-23,836.
2️⃣ Buy near 23,836 support with SL below 23,800; Target 23,900-23,949.
3️⃣ Breakout Trade: A decisive 15-min close above 23,990 → Buy with target 24,100-24,125.
4️⃣ Breakdown Trade: A decisive 15-min close below 23,836 → Sell with target 23,750-23,632.
📌 Tip: Flat opening days are best for Option Sellers (Iron Condor / Short Straddle near ATM) due to limited directional movement until breakout confirms.
════════════════════════════════
🟥 SCENARIO 3: GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ points, Open < 23,805)
════════════════════════════════
👉 Explanation: A gap-down of 100+ points indicates strong bearish sentiment overnight (weak global cues/FII selling). Price opening below our Immediate Support (23,836) confirms sellers are in control.
✅ Plan of Action:
1️�35 If Nifty opens & sustains below 23,800 → Bearish continuation. Sell on pullback near 23,800-23,836 with SL above 23,880. Target 23,700 / 23,632.
2️⃣ If Nifty opens below 23,700 directly (deep gap) → Wait for stabilization/first candle; avoid shorting at panic lows. Look for a reversal bounce trade towards 23,750-23,800 if strong buying emerges (long lower wick with volume).
3️⃣ If price recovers back above 23,836 within first hour → Gap-fill move likely towards 23,900-23,949; only for quick scalp trades, not for holding.
⚠️ Caution: Gap-down days often see sharp V-shaped recoveries. Avoid over-leveraging shorts; book partial profits at each support.
════════════════════════════════
💡 OPTIONS TRADING – RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS
════════════════════════════════
🛡️ 1. Always trade with a predefined Stop Loss (SL) — never average a losing option position.
📉 2. Avoid buying deep OTM options on gap days — high theta decay + low delta = poor risk-reward.
⚖️ 3. Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade, regardless of conviction.
⏱️ 4. Respect Theta Decay: Options lose value fast in range-bound/flat markets — prefer selling strategies (Credit Spreads) on such days.
🔄 5. Use Hedged Positions (Spreads) instead of naked Buy/Sell to limit max loss on unexpected volatility.
📊 6. Track India VIX — a rising VIX increases option premiums; adjust strike selection accordingly.
🧠 7. Avoid revenge trading after a stop-loss hit — stick to the plan, not emotions.
🕒 8. Prefer trading in liquid strikes (near ATM) with tight bid-ask spread to avoid slippage.
🚫 9. No trading in the last 15-20 minutes of expiry days unless you fully understand pin-risk.
════════════════════════════════
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
════════════════════════════════
✅ Key Resistance: 23,949-23,990 & 24,100-24,125
✅ Key Support: 23,836 & 23,632
✅ Gap Up (>24,005): Watch for rejection at 24,100-24,125 or continuation on strong volume.
✅ Flat (23,805-24,005): Range trade between 23,836 support and 23,990 resistance until breakout.
✅ Gap Down (<23,805): Bearish bias continues towards 23,632 unless strong reversal seen above 23,836.
🎯 Overall Bias: Trade the level, not the prediction. Let price action confirm direction post-opening 15-30 minutes before taking a position. Patience + Discipline = Consistency in trading. 🙏
════════════════════════════════
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
════════════════════════════════
I am NOT a SEBI Registered Analyst. This content is purely for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY and should not be treated as investment/trading advice. Please consult your financial advisor and do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading/investment decisions. Trading in equity/options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 🙏📚
``` A Masterclass in Fibonacci ExtensionsAll price action shown in this chart is historical and older than three months. This post is purely educational and observational in nature. It is not a forecast or a trading recommendation.
Setting Up the Fibonacci Tool
To build this study, the Fibonacci tool was anchored using two clicks on the monthly timeframe. The first click, marked as Click 1, was placed at the swing high. The second click, marked as Click 2, was placed at the swing low, capturing the full downtrend that unfolded on this chart from 2007 to 2020.
Understanding the Levels
Once anchored, the tool generates a series of levels. Everything between 0% and 100%, including 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%, are the standard retracement levels, commonly used to measure pullbacks within a move. Everything beyond 100%, including 127.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%, 361.8%, 423.6%, and 476.4%, are known as extension levels. These project price targets beyond the original swing, offering reference points the market has not yet reached at the time the tool is drawn.
The White Zones and the Red Zone
Marked on this chart are seven to eight white zones, along with one red zone at the very top. Each of these zones represents an area where the market, on the monthly timeframe, either reacted strongly (forming a full rejection candle for that month) or entered a period of consolidation around that exact level. In some instances, price found support at these zones later on, while in others it consolidated between them. This in between space is referred to here as air, the room the market moves through between one respected extension level and the next.
What the Chart Reveals
Across twelve total extension labels plotted on this chart, the vast majority were respected by price at some point across this multi decade downtrend, either through direct reaction or through consolidation nearby. Not every single level held with equal precision, and that itself is an important data point. Fibonacci extensions are not meant to work with perfect consistency at every level, but when the overwhelming majority of levels show some form of respected reaction across such a long stretch of price history, it becomes a compelling study in how far these mathematically derived levels can extend their relevance.
The Bigger Picture
This chart is a rare, extended look at how Fibonacci extension levels can play out not just once, but repeatedly, across more than a decade of price history. Learning to identify these zones, understanding the difference between standard retracement levels and true extensions, and observing how price interacts with them over the long run is a valuable addition to any trader's technical toolkit. 
Long
Long
XAUUSD – Gold Recovery Tests 4,450 Resistance XAUUSD – Gold Recovery Tests 4,450 Resistance
Gold is trying to recover after forming a reaction from the one-month low around 4,283.
The current move shows buyers are not giving up yet, but price is now approaching an important decision area near 4,440 – 4,490. This zone combines Fibonacci resistance, previous structure, and the short-term sell area shown on the chart.
From the fundamental side, the U.S. dollar is facing fresh selling pressure after weak ADP employment data and concerns over possible Japanese intervention to support the yen. This gives gold short-term support. At the same time, gold is also moving back toward the 21-day SMA area near 4,450, while daily RSI is starting to turn more positive again.
So the recovery is valid, but not confirmed yet.
Technical view:
Gold bounced from the strong support area near 4,292.
Price is now trading around 4,429 and moving into the Fibonacci resistance zone.
The first key resistance is 4,440 – 4,450.
The stronger sell order area is 4,480 – 4,490.
If gold rejects from this resistance area, price may retest the FVG zone around 4,344.
A deeper bearish reaction could bring gold back toward the strong support near 4,292.
If buyers break and hold above 4,490, the short-term bearish pressure will weaken.
Key levels to watch:
Current price: 4,429
Resistance Fibonacci: 4,440 – 4,450
Sell order Fibonacci 0.5: 4,480 – 4,490
FVG support: 4,344
Strong support: 4,292
Main scenario:
If gold reaches 4,440 – 4,490 and shows rejection, sellers may try to push price back toward 4,344 first, then 4,292.
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks above 4,490 and holds there, buyers may regain control and open a recovery path toward 4,520 – 4,560.
Hannah’s view:
Gold is recovering, but it is now entering an area where buyers need confirmation.
I do not want to chase the move directly into resistance. The clean plan is to watch how price reacts around 4,440 – 4,490.
Main view: recovery remains possible, but resistance is still important. A rejection keeps 4,344 and 4,292 in focus. A breakout above 4,490 confirms stronger bullish continuation.
Do you think gold will break through 4,490, or will sellers defend this Fibonacci zone again?
Short 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD RECOVERS, BUT 4,450 IS THE NEXT TEST BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD RECOVERS, BUT 4,450 IS THE NEXT TEST
Gold is trying to recover after the strong downside move from the previous value area, but the market is not completely clean yet.
The latest rebound is being supported by weaker US ADP data and lower US Treasury yields, which are putting pressure on the US dollar. This helps gold recover from the recent four-week low.
However, the bullish side still needs caution. Fed rate-hike expectations are not fully gone, energy-driven inflation risk remains a concern, and geopolitical uncertainty can still support the USD as a safe-haven currency.
So the story is mixed:
Gold has bullish recovery momentum.
But it is now approaching a resistance zone where sellers may react again.
Technical structure
On the H2 chart, gold has bounced strongly from the lower value area near 4,300 and is now trading around 4,425 - 4,430.
The first key resistance is the Sell zone VAL around 4,450. Price is currently moving toward this zone after a short-term recovery. This is an important test because 4,450 is the area where sellers may defend again if the rebound is only corrective.
Below the current price, the Buy zone POC around 4,370 is the nearest buyer support. If gold pulls back and holds this zone, buyers may try to build another recovery leg.
The higher resistance remains the Sell zone POC around 4,596. This is the major value resistance from the previous distribution structure. Gold needs to reclaim 4,450 first before this higher area becomes realistic.
Important zones
Current price area: 4,420 - 4,430
Gold is recovering but still below the main resistance.
Sell zone VAL: 4,440 - 4,455
First resistance and seller reaction zone.
Buy zone POC: 4,365 - 4,375
Main short-term buyer reload zone.
Sell zone POC: 4,590 - 4,600
Major upper resistance if bullish momentum expands.
Lower reaction area: 4,300 - 4,320
Recent recovery base and important low area.
Trading scenario
Priority view: wait for reaction around 4,450
Sell reaction scenario
Entry:
Look for sell positions only if gold reaches 4,440 - 4,455 and shows clear rejection.
Stop Loss:
Above the rejection high or above the Sell zone VAL.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,370
TP2: 4,320
TP3: 4,300 if sellers regain momentum
This setup follows the idea that gold may be making a correction into resistance before another downside rotation.
Buy continuation scenario
If gold pulls back to 4,365 - 4,375 and holds the Buy zone POC with strong bullish rejection, a short-term buy reaction can appear.
Entry:
Buy only after confirmation around 4,370.
Stop Loss:
Below the local sweep low or below the POC support.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,450
TP2: 4,500
TP3: 4,590 only if gold breaks and accepts above 4,450
Final view
Gold has recovered well from the lower area, but the next real test is 4,450.
If buyers break and hold above 4,450, the recovery can extend higher toward 4,500 and possibly 4,590. But if gold rejects from 4,450, the market may rotate back toward 4,370 before deciding the next direction.
For me, the key is simple:
Below 4,450 = sellers still have a chance to control the rebound.
Hold 4,370 = buyers remain active.
Lose 4,370 = gold may retest 4,320 - 4,300.
Break above 4,450 = bullish recovery becomes stronger.
Gold is bullish in the short-term recovery, but not clean enough to chase at resistance. The best trade will come from confirmation — either rejection at 4,450 or buyer defense at 4,370.
Will gold break 4,450 and continue higher, or will sellers use this zone to push price back into value?
Long 
Long
XAUUSD — Elliott Wave Recovery From 4,286 XAUUSD — Elliott Wave Recovery From 4,286
Gold is showing a strong Elliott Wave recovery after completing the previous bearish wave 5 near the 4,286–4,300 demand area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD has shifted into a short-term bullish correction structure, but price is now approaching an important Fibonacci sell zone where a pullback may appear first.
The key idea is simple: gold may push higher to complete the current upside wave, then correct into the buy zone before continuing toward the next higher Fibonacci target.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold reacted strongly from the done wave 5 area near 4,286–4,300, showing that buyers defended the lower liquidity zone. After that reaction, price built a bullish impulse and is now trading around 4,437.
The current upside structure looks like a developing 5-wave recovery. Price may still have room to test the 4,475–4,490 area, marked as the Done wave 5 / Sell zone Fibonacci. This zone is important because buyers may take profit there, and a short ABC correction can appear.
If price rejects from this Fibonacci zone, the next clean support to watch is the End wave C / Buy zone around 4,385–4,395. If this zone holds, gold may start another bullish leg toward the upper target near 4,520–4,530.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,437
◌ Done wave 5 / Sell zone Fibonacci: 4,475–4,490
◌ Upper Fibonacci target: 4,520–4,530
◌ End wave C / Buy zone: 4,385–4,395
◌ Strong lower support: 4,286–4,300
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,365
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart suggests that the previous bearish wave 5 may have already completed around 4,286–4,300.
From that low, gold appears to be building a new bullish recovery:
Wave (1) started from the lower demand zone.
Wave (2) corrected back but held above the recent low.
Wave (3) pushed price higher with stronger momentum.
Wave (4) may create a short pullback.
Wave (5) could finish near 4,475–4,490.
After wave (5) completes, gold may form an ABC correction into 4,385–4,395 before buyers try to continue toward 4,520–4,530.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,385–4,395 if price gives bullish confirmation from the End wave C / Buy zone
Stop Loss: Below 4,365
Take Profit 1: 4,475–4,490
Take Profit 2: 4,520–4,530
Alternative scenario
If gold breaks above 4,490 and holds above this zone, the bullish structure may continue directly toward 4,520–4,530 without a deep correction.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish recovery becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,365 and fails to reclaim the buy zone. In that case, the ABC correction may extend lower, and the bullish continuation setup needs to be delayed.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view is bullish after the strong reaction from 4,286–4,300, but buying directly into the Fibonacci sell zone is not the cleanest plan.
The better setup is to wait for price to complete the current wave near 4,475–4,490, then watch for an ABC pullback into 4,385–4,395. If buyers defend that zone, gold may continue toward 4,520–4,530.
Do you think gold will complete wave (5) first, or correct into the buy zone before the next rally? Long 
XAUUSD — Bearish Wave 5 Toward 4,286
Gold is still trading inside a bearish Elliott Wave structure after the strong selloff from the upper area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a wave (4) correction under resistance before continuing lower into wave (5).
The key idea is simple: gold is still below strong resistance, and if buyers fail to reclaim the upper zone, the next bearish target remains around 4,286.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,429, right near the upper side of the FVG support area. After the sharp drop, price has been moving sideways and building a small corrective structure.
The important resistance zone is around 4,455–4,470. This area may act as the wave (4) rejection zone. If price cannot break above it, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure.
Below the current price, the key support is near 4,397. If gold breaks below this level, the bearish wave (5) scenario becomes stronger, opening the way toward the lower liquidity area around 4,286–4,300.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,429
◌ Strong resistance / wave (4): 4,455–4,470
◌ FVG support zone: 4,365–4,430
◌ Key support: 4,397
◌ Main bearish target: 4,286–4,300
◌ Extended support zone: 4,270–4,310
◌ Bullish invalidation: above 4,507
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart is showing a possible bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave (1) started after the first rejection from the top.
Wave (2) created a recovery bounce but failed to make a stronger continuation.
Wave (3) pushed sharply lower into the FVG support zone.
Wave (4) is now forming as a sideways correction below resistance.
If sellers reject this area again, wave (5) may continue lower toward 4,286–4,300.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys at the current level. The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection below resistance or a confirmed breakdown below 4,397.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,455–4,470 if price gives bearish rejection from strong resistance
Stop Loss: Above 4,507
Take Profit 1: 4,397
Take Profit 2: 4,340–4,320
Take Profit 3: 4,286–4,300
Alternative entry
If gold breaks below 4,397 with strong bearish momentum, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,286 without waiting for a deeper pullback.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,507 and holds above that level. In that case, the wave (4) correction may extend higher and the wave (5) downside setup would need to be delayed.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the strong resistance zone. The current movement still looks more like a correction than a real bullish reversal.
If price rejects 4,455–4,470 or breaks below 4,397, gold may continue the wave (5) move toward 4,286–4,300.
Do you think gold will complete wave (5) first, or will buyers try to defend the FVG support again? Short 
You Don’t Have to Enter a Trade to Make a Trading MistakeMost traders think a trading mistake begins when they click Buy or Sell. But some of the most serious mistakes happen before that button is ever pressed. You see a setup, your analysis says it is valid, but you hesitate, wait for more confirmation, or convince yourself that “this one feels different.” Then the market moves exactly as you expected. You didn't lose money, but that doesn't necessarily mean you made the right decision.
A missed trade can be a mistake too:
Not taking a trade is not automatically a mistake. Sometimes staying out is the smartest decision. The problem begins when you repeatedly ignore your own trading rules for emotional reasons. If your strategy says a setup is valid, but you keep avoiding it because you're afraid of another loss, that is not really a market problem. It is an execution problem.
This is why traders should stop looking only at the trades they entered. Your trading journal should also include the opportunities you deliberately passed on. What did the setup look like? Did it meet your rules? Why did you stay out? What happened afterward? Most importantly, would you have made the same decision if you had not known the outcome?
Your P&L doesn't show every mistake:
A trading account records what happened to the positions you opened. It doesn't record the opportunities you watched from the sidelines. This makes missed trades particularly difficult to identify.
Imagine you recognize 50 valid setups but only take 25 of them. Your account shows the results of those 25 trades, but it doesn't tell you whether the other 25 were smart decisions or emotional ones. If you consistently avoid breakouts because they look “too extended,” skip trades after a previous loss, or wait for perfect confirmation that rarely comes, you may have a problem that your P&L cannot reveal.
The interesting part is that some missed trades may actually be more informative than losing trades. A losing trade can simply mean that the market moved against you. A missed trade can reveal something about how you make decisions under uncertainty.
Fear can disguise itself as discipline
One of the easiest mistakes to miss is when fear looks like good risk management.
After taking two losses, a trader sees another perfectly valid setup. Instead of following the plan, they say, “I'll wait for confirmation.” The confirmation never comes, the market moves, and suddenly the trader feels relieved that they didn't enter.
But was that discipline?
Maybe. Or maybe the trader simply didn't want to experience another loss.
The only way to know is to look at the decision objectively. If the setup met the same conditions as hundreds of previous trades, but you skipped it because of what happened in the previous trade, then the market may not have been the reason you stayed out.
Your previous result influenced your current decision.
Don't turn every missed winner into a mistake:
There is also a dangerous trap on the other side.
A trade you didn't take goes up 10%, and suddenly you believe you made a terrible mistake. But markets are full of moves that look obvious after they happen.
The correct question isn't, “How much money would I have made?”
The better question is, “Did I follow a reasonable decision process with the information available at that moment?”
If your rules did not call for an entry, staying out was probably correct—even if the market later exploded higher. You cannot judge a decision solely by its outcome.
Otherwise, every winning move you missed becomes evidence that you should have traded, and every losing trade you avoided becomes proof that you were brilliant. Neither conclusion is useful.
Start tracking the trades you don't take:
For the next 20 or 30 setups you seriously consider, try recording the ones you don't enter.
Write down why you stayed out. Was the setup incomplete? Was the risk too high? Was there major news approaching? Or were you simply uncomfortable?
Then review what happened afterward.
You may find something surprising. Perhaps most of the trades you skipped were actually bad setups, which means your patience is working. Or perhaps many of them were valid setups that you avoided for the same emotional reason.
That pattern is where the real value lies.
The goal isn't to trade more:
The lesson here isn't that traders should take every opportunity they see.
Quite the opposite.
Good trading is not about maximizing the number of trades. It is about making decisions that are consistent with a tested process.
Sometimes the best trade is no trade.
But “no trade” should be a decision, not a reaction.
If you can clearly explain why you entered a trade, why you exited it, and why you rejected another setup, you are starting to understand something more important than any individual indicator: your own decision-making process.
Your biggest trading weakness may not be the trades you lose.
It may be the good decisions you repeatedly fail to act on.
On @BrightRally_Research on @TradingView Education 
