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Crude Oil: The Long-Term Elliott Wave ProjectionCrude Oil: The Long-Term Elliott Wave Projection
Let’s be honest—if you tell most traders today that crude oil could someday trade around 430 USD, 766 USD, or even 840 USD per barrel, they will likely say: “That is impossible.”
From today’s perspective, it does sound extreme. However, history teaches us that markets have a way of embarrassing the crowd.
History Favors the Unbelievable
When Ralph Nelson Elliott developed his wave theory in the 1930s, the idea that the Dow Jones could recover from the Great Depression and enter a massive, multi-decade bull market was met with deep skepticism. Similarly, years ago, the idea of Bitcoin trading at 120,000 USD would have been dismissed as absurd.
This leads to one critical lesson: In financial markets, disbelief is often the precursor to a major expansion.
The Elliott Wave Perspective
This chart visualizes crude oil inside a significant market cycle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we are likely moving through the final stages of a massive impulsive structure—what we define as the final fifth wave.
In this theory, wave five is often the emotional climax of the cycle. It is the stage where supply shortages, geopolitical shocks, and panic-buying converge, pushing prices into “extreme” territory.
The Targets
The 766 USD target is not a random number; it is an expanded Fibonacci target based on the structural relationship of previous waves. While it sounds massive today, markets do not care about what feels comfortable. They care about structure, time, and global macro conditions.
Risk Management and Invalidation
To be clear, this does not mean crude oil must reach these targets tomorrow. Markets do not owe anyone anything.
That is why invalidation levels are essential. In this analysis, 61.09 USD and 25.71 USD act as our key structural guardrails. If price breaks these levels in a way that violates the wave count, we must accept that the current scenario is invalid and adjust our analysis accordingly.
Professional analysis is not about predicting with ego. It is about building scenarios, defining the invalidation points, and respecting the market structure at all times. 
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XAUUSD: Weekly Downtrend Still Points Lower
Gold is still trading inside a broad descending channel, and the weekly structure continues to favour the downside. From Kelly’s view, the latest price action does not yet show a strong reversal signal. Instead, the chart suggests that sellers are still controlling the larger trend, with the market now moving towards lower target zones.
The main idea for next week is simple: gold remains under pressure while price stays below the descending structure.
⟡ Market structure
The broader chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs after the previous peak. Each recovery attempt has been rejected below the upper channel boundary, while price continues to move lower inside the bearish channel.
Gold is now trading around 4,327, after failing to rebuild strength above the mid-channel area. This keeps the weekly bias defensive. The next important downside zone sits around 4,100–4,150, where price may show a temporary reaction. If that area fails, the larger structure could continue towards the deeper target zone around 3,650–3,700.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,400–4,450: near-term resistance and retest area
◌ 4,327: current weekly reaction zone
◌ 4,100–4,150: Target zone 1 and first major downside support
◌ 3,650–3,700: Target zone 2 and deeper weekly liquidity area
◌ Above 4,550: area where bearish pressure may start to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing a larger bearish wave sequence after completing the previous upside cycle.
The current structure suggests that price may be moving inside a wave 5 decline on the larger timeframe. The earlier wave 3 pushed strongly lower, wave 4 developed as a corrective rebound, and now the market may be extending into the final bearish leg.
If this wave count remains valid, the next major focus is the 4,100–4,150 area first. A stronger wave 5 extension could later open the path towards 3,650–3,700.
▸ Weekly trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for sell continuation or a bearish retest before looking for downside follow-through.
Entry zone: 4,400–4,450 if price retests and shows bearish rejection
Stop loss: above 4,550
Take profit 1: 4,100–4,150
Take profit 2: 3,650–3,700
Alternative scenario: if gold reclaims 4,550 and holds above the descending channel pressure, the bearish weekly count would weaken and the chart may need a more neutral reassessment.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a bearish continuation structure. The market is not showing enough strength to confirm a weekly bullish reversal, and the descending channel remains the main guide for direction.
The cleaner approach is not to chase price at the low, but to wait for a controlled retest or clear continuation signal.
Gold remains under weekly pressure.
Until resistance is reclaimed, the next meaningful move may still be lower.
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S&P 500 Rejected Near the Highs — More Downside Next?As I expected in the previous idea, the S&P 500 ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) started its decline from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and marked its all-time highs right in that PRZ. After breaking significant support lines, the index began to drop—one key reason for this decline could be the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Currently, the S&P 500 has broken a support zone($7,564-$7,551) and seems to have completed a pullback to that zone, forming an evening star candlestick pattern. We could expect further downside.
From an Elliott Wave theory standpoint, it appears that the S&P 500 is completing either its major wave 3 or wave 5.
I expect the S&P 500 to decline further once U.S. markets open, aiming to fill the lower Gap($7,496.20-$7,471.40).
First Target: $7,504
Second Target: $7,476
Stop Loss(SL): $7,573
Note: A sharp drop in the S&P 500 could also impact correlated markets like cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ).
What’s your view on the S&P 500? Will it continue its decline, or could we see a new all-time high again?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Gold May Be Building a Reversal Inside This Falling WedgeOver the past four to five days, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has been drifting downward with very low momentum.
Currently, Gold is moving near a heavy support zone($4,502-$4,351) and close to the bottom of a descending channel.
From a classical technical analysis perspective, if we look at Gold’s chart on the 1-hour time frame, it seems to be forming a falling wedge pattern. If it breaks the upper line and the resistance zone($4,497-$4,476), we could expect an upward move.
From an Elliott Wave theory perspective, Gold appears to be completing its corrective waves within the falling wedge pattern. After that, we can anticipate the next five-wave impulse upward.
I expect Fold to rise from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) or if it breaks the upper line of the falling wedge pattern, we could expect a stronger upward move.
First Target: $4,491
Second Target: $4,526
Stop Loss(SL): $4,399
Points may shift as the market evolves.
Note: Geopolitical developments in the Middle East could have a swift impact on Gold’s trend.
What’s your view on Gold? Can it hold its heavy support zone($4,502-$4,351), or should we expect a sharper decline in Gold??
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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Aussie shows bearish pattern, while RBA can be on holdAussie is seeing a pretty strong turn from the high, so it’s possible that we already saw the top of wave five. Notice that price broke below the trend line support of that bullish channel, which makes us think that wave five may already be completed and that we could see much deeper weakness later on. In fact, we see an impulsive drop from the highs, so we may now be stepping into a higher degree A B C decline, meaning that after B wave rise, pair could see much more weakness. Plus, we have seen a weekly close around 0.7136 level, which seems like important confirmation that the trend is reversing, which after all has been expected because of the higher degree completed 5-wave structure visible on the daily chart.
Resistance on rallies is at 0.7180-0.7200.
One of the reasons for a potential deeper pullback on Aussie is also the unexpected rise in unemployment and lower than expected CPI, which means RBA can stay on hold for now, especially since they have already hiked three times this year.
Grega 
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BITCOIN - A pullback before a drop to 60K, or perhaps even lowerBINANCE:BTCUSDT is moving toward 59,800 — the key support zone. However, after retesting a local level, the market is forming a correction against the broader trend
The market remains in panic mode and is testing the 60K area. Dynamic buyers have yet to appear, while fear continues to intensify. A move below 60K could trigger a cascade of liquidations, as many institutional hedging strategies are concentrated around this level.
There is currently no fundamental support for the market, while a series of weak news catalysts has fueled aggressive selling. Large funds continue transferring Bitcoin to exchanges.
Technically, the primary area of interest remains 59,800–53,300. Before reaching this target zone, Bitcoin may enter a local corrective phase
Resistance levels: 64,000, 64,740, 65,360
Support levels: 61,350, 59,800
A long squeeze from local support is driving the current correction. Technically, this is not buying pressure but rather a reaction to profit-taking. The market has entered a liquidity-hunting phase ahead of a potential continuation lower. Key triggers (areas of interest) are located at 63,955 and 65,360. A short squeeze could trigger the next leg down.
Best regards, R. Linda Short 
