Brent regains geopolitical premium after escalation in the OrmuzBrent regains geopolitical premium after escalation in the Middle East
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The oil market is once again being driven by geopolitical developments following a weekend marked by a renewed increase in tensions in the Middle East, the reactivation of the conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the continued uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. The possibility of further disruptions to energy supplies has led traders to recover part of the risk premium that had disappeared during periods of greater stability.
Since the reactivation of the conflict in Hormuz over the weekend, Brent has risen from $83.24 to reach $87.30 per barrel, moving closer once again to a relevant technical zone within the structure created during the conflict itself. The range between $88.50 and $98.39 has acted as a support zone during periods of de-escalation, negotiation pauses, and moments of lower geopolitical tension, when the market partially reduced the risk premium associated with the conflict. Before the start of this period of heightened tensions, Brent was trading at lower levels, approximately between $60 and $70 per barrel, reflecting a market with less pressure on energy supply.
The escalation of the conflict subsequently pushed crude oil to a high of $120.52, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to one of the world’s most important strategic routes for oil transportation. During that episode, the area with the highest trading volume was established around $111.12, identified as the main Point of Control (POC) of the bullish move generated by the geopolitical crisis.
From a technical perspective, Brent is currently maintaining a recovery scenario, although with mixed signals. Moving averages continue to show a bearish crossover, reflecting the correction following the high reached during the most intense phase of the conflict. However, the price has managed to remain above the 200-period moving average, a dynamic level that continues to act as support and, for now, prevents a loss of the medium-term bullish structure.
Momentum indicators show a gradual improvement. The MACD maintains a positive slope, confirming the increase in buying momentum, although the histogram continues to show moderate growth, indicating that the move has not yet reached significant acceleration. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 60.75%, approaching overbought levels, although its advance appears to have slowed as it coincides with the recovery of the 100-period moving average and the lower area of the range used as a reference during the de-escalation phases.
Brent’s performance over the coming sessions will depend mainly on the evolution of the conflict and whether the market interprets the current tensions as a real threat to global supply. A sustained recovery above $88.50 could open the way towards the upper end of the de-escalation range between $98 and $100, while a new phase of negotiations could once again reduce the geopolitical premium and bring renewed downward pressure on prices.
For now, oil once again demonstrates the strong sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical factors, with traders focused on any signal that could alter expectations regarding global crude supply.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
SpaceX falls nearly 46% from its peak assessing Starship impact SpaceX falls nearly 46% from its peak as the market assesses the impact of Starship
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed Friday’s session at $123.99, below its $135 IPO price for the first time since its market debut, as investors assess the impact of delays to the Starship program and the sharp correction recorded from its initial highs.
The company, which reached an all-time high of $225.61 shortly after its market debut, has accumulated a decline of more than 45%, after selling pressure significantly reduced its market valuation from the highs reached following the initial public offering.
In overnight trading, the stock is attempting to stabilize around $125.51, although it remains below the $135 level, a relevant technical and psychological reference as it coincides with the IPO price.
The deterioration in sentiment accelerated after SpaceX aborted the thirteenth Starship test flight minutes before launch. The automatic system interrupted the operation after detecting issues during the ignition sequence of several Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy booster. Elon Musk later confirmed that two engines will need to be replaced before the next launch attempt.
The incident increases pressure on a program considered a key component of SpaceX’s future valuation, as Starship is designed to expand the company’s launch capabilities, support Starlink’s growth and develop new commercial applications in the space sector.
The share price was also affected by the circulation of information later denied by Musk regarding an alleged $52 billion contract involving Foxconn and Nvidia, which the entrepreneur described as false information. The clarification allowed for a partial recovery in pre-market trading, although it did not alter the stock’s bearish structure.
Market positioning also reflects significant selling pressure. Nearly 49% of the free float is reportedly being lent for short-selling operations, according to market data, allowing bearish investors to accumulate approximately $8.7 billion in potential profits from the highs reached after the IPO.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, SpaceX maintains a corrective structure after losing the support level at $135.
The Volume Point of Control (POC) is currently located around $158.85, slightly below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at $161.79. This area coincides with the previous support range between the 25% Fibonacci level at $148.16 and the 38.20% retracement, making it the main technical resistance zone.
A recovery of the $148-$162 range would be necessary to improve the short-term structure, while the $135 level represents the first relevant resistance after losing the IPO price.
Momentum indicators continue to show weakness. The MACD maintains both the signal line and the moving average below the histogram, which remains in negative territory, although with a slight moderation in bearish pressure following the recent sharp correction.
The RSI stands at 25.34%, reflecting highly oversold conditions. Although this level may support short-term technical rebounds, it does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal while the price remains below its main moving averages.
The moving average structure confirms a corrective trend, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the all-time high of $225.61.
The ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator shows that, after several sessions of strong bullish moves, the asset is currently in a neutral risk zone, reflecting a loss of momentum following the sharp adjustment recorded.
Key Upcoming Catalysts
The market remains focused on SpaceX’s upcoming operational milestones, particularly the new Starship launch attempt, scheduled after technical corrections were made to the propulsion system.
A successful execution could help reduce bearish pressure and support a recovery toward lost technical levels. However, further delays or operational issues could maintain pressure on a stock that is currently trading below its initial market price.
Until SpaceX manages to recover the $135 level, the technical structure will continue to favor sellers, although the elevated level of short positioning could increase volatility in response to any positive news.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Nasdaq Deepens Its Correction as the Market Tests AI ValuationsIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The Nasdaq 100 closed Thursday's session at 29,025.77 points, posting a decline of nearly 1.9% in a session dominated by profit-taking in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor manufacturers. During the early hours of Friday's European session, the index is trading in the pre-market around 28,592 points, maintaining a bearish tone as investors continue to assess the ongoing earnings season.
The correction comes despite several leading companies linked to artificial intelligence reporting solid results. TSMC once again delivered strong growth driven by demand for AI chips, while Netflix exceeded earnings expectations, although its share price was pressured after issuing more conservative revenue guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year. The market is once again demonstrating that the technology sector's elevated valuations require not only strong earnings but also forward-looking guidance capable of justifying the substantial rally recorded over recent months.
From a technical perspective, the corrective move has pushed the index below its 50-session moving average, although it continues to find support at the 100- and 200-session moving averages, leaving the medium-term bullish structure intact for now. Nevertheless, the loss of the short-term moving average reflects a deterioration in buying momentum that should be closely monitored over the coming sessions.
Technical indicators also point to a cooling in momentum. The MACD has crossed below its signal line, while the histogram continues to develop in negative territory, confirming a slowdown in bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI has declined to 41%, falling below the neutral 50 level without yet reaching oversold conditions, leaving room for a possible extension of the correction should market sentiment continue to weaken.
Volume analysis also provides relevant signals. The Volume Profile places the Point of Control (POC) within the range between 30,782.32 and 28,208 dollars, reflecting that this remains the area where the highest concentration of traded contracts is located. In addition, the profile shows a double volume concentration: a first area around 29,333 dollars, which could act as immediate resistance in the event of a rebound, and a second, much more pronounced node at 24,959.83 dollars, considered the market's main price acceptance level in a scenario of a deeper correction.
Investors' attention is now focused on the earnings reports that continue to be released throughout the day. Beyond headline profit figures, the market will closely analyse second-half guidance, margin trends and, above all, any comments related to artificial intelligence investment and demand growth. Following the market's reaction over recent sessions, it has become evident that merely beating estimates is no longer sufficient if companies are unable to raise future expectations.
Today's session will be crucial in determining whether Thursday's decline represents nothing more than profit-taking following the strong gains accumulated in recent months or, on the contrary, marks the beginning of a broader consolidation phase within the technology sector. With valuations still demanding and the earnings season entering its busiest stage, volatility is expected to remain the dominant theme for the Nasdaq over the coming sessions.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
BlackRock sets a record with iShares as the driving forceIon Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) reached $15.34 trillion in assets under management for the first time, up 22% from a year ago, driven by strong market performance and significant capital inflows into its exchange-traded funds. The world’s largest asset manager recorded $192 billion in net inflows, led by iShares, and posted adjusted earnings per share of $13.91, significantly above the $12.59 expected by the analyst consensus. In addition, the company reported quarterly revenue of $7.084 billion and increased its share buyback programme to $2 billion, reinforcing market confidence in its outlook.
The market reaction was immediate. The stock closed Wednesday’s session at $1,025.44, after opening with a bullish gap of more than $50, and during the session it moved above $1,093 per share. In overnight trading, the stock again moved above $1,100, reflecting that buying interest remains strong following the earnings release.
From a technical perspective, the move has been accompanied by a significant increase in volatility. The share price has traded within a range between $990.35 and $1,113, while the Point of Control (POC) is currently located around $1,079, a level that concentrates the highest traded volume and could act as a dynamic support area in the coming sessions.
The moving averages continue to show a phase of price compression, indicating that, despite the strong bullish gap, the stock remains within a broad consolidation range that began several months ago. The rally allowed the price to test the upper part of this range, although a sustained breakout above recent highs will still be required to confirm a continuation of the trend.
Momentum indicators maintain a positive bias. The MACD continues to strengthen, with a rising histogram reflecting an acceleration in bullish momentum, while the RSI, currently around 66 points, is entering a moderate overbought zone without yet showing clear signs of exhaustion.
In this context, the technical scenario continues to favour an extension of the move towards the $1,181.36 resistance level, corresponding to the highs recorded in January. As an alternative scenario, a technical pullback towards the $1,040 area, where the latest bullish move began, cannot be ruled out, particularly after a session with exceptionally high volume in which, despite the strong intraday advance, the candle closed with limited directional conviction. Nevertheless, a deeper correction would become less likely as long as the price continues to consolidate above the area between the $1,079 POC and the $1,040 support level, which will be key zones for assessing the strength of the short-term trend.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
Gold loses momentum as the market is focused back to inflationBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
Gold is trading slightly lower on Thursday, giving back part of the gains recorded after the latest U.S. inflation data. The rebound in oil prices has brought renewed concerns about the inflation outlook and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
The moderation in the U.S. Consumer Price Index had supported the precious metal by reducing expectations of further interest rate hikes. However, higher crude oil prices, driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have revived fears of more persistent inflation, boosting the appeal of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds.
This environment limits gold's upside potential. Although the metal is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD found support at the June 30 low of $3,942.25, before rebounding to a recent high of $4,203.16. The metal is currently trading around $4,028.40, close to the key psychological support level of $4,000.
The technical structure continues to show weakness following the highs recorded in January ($5,597.81) and the subsequent lower high posted in March ($5,418.94). The bearish crossover of the 50-day moving average below the 100-day moving average confirms weakening momentum in both the short and medium term.
Technical indicators support this outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.42, reflecting prevailing selling pressure without yet reaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in a bearish configuration, with both the MACD line and the signal line trending lower, confirming the loss of bullish momentum.
From a longer-term perspective, the Point of Control (POC) remains around $4,528.67, an area of significant traded volume that could become the main reference level should gold resume a sustained upward trend.
Investors are now focused on the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy, potentially keeping pressure on the precious metal. Conversely, further signs of easing inflation could support renewed buying interest in gold.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Short
UBS Warns of Increasing Market FragilityUBS Warns of Increasing Market Fragility Despite Calm VIX as Earnings Season Begins
[/b ]Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The apparent stability reflected by the VIX volatility index may be concealing an increase in risk in the U.S. equity market, according to a UBS report, which warns of elevated dispersion among individual stocks at a time when the corporate earnings season is beginning. The Swiss bank said that its proprietary Turbu-lens indicator has reached a level of 0.9, its highest since September 2025, a reading that points to a higher probability of volatility episodes even though the VIX remains at historically moderate levels.
The bank explained that the volatility recorded by individual stocks is currently three times higher than that observed for the index as a whole, a divergence that, in its view, reflects an apparently stable market, although with significant differences in the performance of individual companies.
The warning coincides with the start of the second-quarter earnings season in the United States, at a time when market consensus expects corporate earnings growth of around 24%. UBS believes that such elevated expectations leave little room for disappointment and increase the risk of sharp moves in stocks that fail to meet forecasts. The bank therefore recommends prioritizing hedging strategies on individual companies, particularly in the technology, energy and financial sectors, rather than relying on broad index hedges.
UBS Group AG, Switzerland's largest bank and one of the world's leading wealth managers following the integration of Credit Suisse in 2023, operates in investment banking, asset management and private banking, with a presence in more than 50 countries.
The divergence between the index's low volatility and the high dispersion among individual stocks reflects a market that is more vulnerable than traditional indicators suggest. In my view, such demanding earnings expectations leave little room for disappointment, which could translate into sharp price movements in companies that fail to meet forecasts. In this environment, selective hedging strategies may prove more effective than an approach based solely on index hedges.
UBS Technical Analysis
UBS shares, listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, maintain a bullish long-term technical structure. After establishing support at CHF 32.12, the stock has developed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since May, breaking through resistance levels at CHF 34.60, CHF 38.39 and CHF 41.42.
After consolidating the move with support around CHF 39.54, the stock was trading during the early hours of Tuesday's session in the CHF 42.20-42.25 range, extending its bullish momentum. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI stands at 69.03, close to the overbought threshold, reflecting the strength of the rally that began in May. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive territory and is showing a phase of stabilization following the latest upward leg. The moving averages continue to display a bullish and expanding configuration, a pattern that keeps the primary uptrend intact as long as the price holds above the support levels established over recent weeks.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
American Airlines and United Airlines Seek Technical SupportAmerican Airlines and United Airlines Seek Technical Support After a Mixed Earnings Season
By Ion Jauregui – Market Analyst
U.S. airlines are entering a new phase following an earnings season marked by very different messages. While Delta Air Lines surprised the market by reaffirming its full-year guidance, American Airlines and United Airlines adopted a more cautious tone, reflecting the uncertainty that still weighs on parts of the sector.
The divergence in expectations is leading investors to increasingly differentiate between companies, rewarding those capable of maintaining high margins and passing higher operating costs on to consumers.
American Airlines Maintains a Bullish Structure Despite the Correction
From a technical perspective, American Airlines continues to maintain a constructive trend that began in April, characterized by a succession of higher highs and higher lows.
After reaching a recent high of $19.10, the stock has corrected to trade around $16.95, with the overnight price close to $16.70. The former resistance at $16.50 is now acting as the first significant support level, while the next support levels are located at $15.37, coinciding with the origin of the latest bullish impulse, followed by $14.00 and $13.18, the starting point of the previous upward move. In the event of a deeper correction, the main long-term support levels are located at $10.09, with key lows at $9.48.
From a longer-term perspective, the company moved from the highs recorded in January 2025 into a corrective phase that drove the share price down to the $8.50 area. It subsequently began a recovery during January 2026, followed by another correction to $10.09, from where the current bullish structure started to develop.
Technical indicators continue to support this scenario, although they are showing a loss of short-term momentum. The RSI has moderated to 58.39 after leaving the overbought zone, while the MACD continues to correct, although both the MACD line and the signal line remain above the equilibrium level. The moving average crossover maintains an expansion configuration following the consolidation phase of the latest bullish impulse, and the price continues to trade well above its major moving averages.
Meanwhile, the Point of Control (POC) is located at $11.43, well below the current share price, indicating that the bulk of traded volume remains concentrated at lower levels and reinforcing the strength of the bullish move developed over recent months.
United Airlines Maintains a Positive Bias
United Airlines also presents a favourable technical structure. Since mid-May, the stock has developed a sustained uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows until reaching a recent high of $138.77.
The stock is currently consolidating around $122.88, an area that coincides with the latest bullish impulse, while the premarket price stands at approximately $124.17. The most significant support levels are located at $118.70, followed by $110.66 and $102.40. Further below, the main structural lows remain at $88.55 and $84.64.
Technical indicators show a pattern similar to that observed in American Airlines. The RSI has corrected from overbought territory to 55.27, moving closer to neutral levels, while the MACD also reflects slowing momentum, although both the MACD line and the signal line remain in positive territory. The moving average crossover continues to display an expansion configuration, and the price remains well above its key moving averages.
The POC is located at $92.23, significantly below the current share price, indicating that the bulk of traded volume during the accumulation phase is concentrated at lower levels and continues to support the underlying bullish structure.
Outlook
The combination of still-favourable technical indicators and a more challenging operating environment leaves the airline sector at an inflection point. As long as the bullish structures remain intact, the market's focus is likely to shift from fuel price movements toward each airline's ability to preserve margins and sustain revenue growth. In this context, the performance of American Airlines and United Airlines will continue to depend on both the strength of travel demand and the companies' upcoming revisions to their financial guidance.
- EN –
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
SpaceX and Wall Street: banks seek their share as it correctsSpaceX and Wall Street: banks seek their share of the business as the stock corrects
By Ion Jauregui – Markets Analyst
A company like SpaceX does not only attract attention due to the growth potential of its space business and the leadership of Elon Musk. A stock market operation of this magnitude also represents an opportunity for Wall Street’s major investment banks, which can benefit from the fees generated through share placement, subsequent trading activity, and financial services associated with capital markets.
Institutions such as JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) are among the names most exposed to the recovery in investment banking activity, at a time when the sector is seeking to consolidate its recovery after several years marked by lower activity in mergers, acquisitions, and equity issuance.
The US banking earnings season, which begins on July 14 with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, and continues on July 15 with Morgan Stanley, will provide insight into whether the increase in financial market activity has translated into improved revenues from trading, investment banking fees, and net interest margins.
Beyond the initial impact of an operation of this nature, SpaceX represents a strategic opportunity for financial institutions due to its size, institutional investor interest, and the potential for future transactions related to financing, debt, and capital markets.
Fundamental analysis of SpaceX
From a fundamental perspective, SpaceX maintains one of the most relevant growth stories within the technology and aerospace sectors. The development of Starlink, together with advances in reusable spacecraft and new orbital infrastructure, places the company in a strategic position within an industry with significant barriers to entry.
However, the market must also assess the challenges associated with this expansion. The high level of investment required to develop new projects and expand the satellite network means the company must demonstrate that its growth expectations can translate into sustainable revenue generation and long-term profitability.
The valuation achieved by SpaceX incorporates very high expectations, meaning that any slowdown in growth, pressure on margins, or an increase in financing requirements could generate adjustments in the share price.
Technical analysis of the share price
From a technical perspective, the stock has entered a corrective phase after reaching highs of $225.61 on June 16. Following that initial bullish move, the price found temporary support around the $171.74 area, although it subsequently resumed selling pressure, moving towards current support levels.
The movement recorded during the latest session pushed the valuation below the initial offering price, set at $148.30, while the overnight price ahead of the market open was trading around $145.31. The $145.20 area currently appears as a relevant technical level, coinciding with a support reference within the recent price structure.
The RSI indicator is currently around 41%, reflecting a loss of buying momentum, although still far from oversold levels. Meanwhile, the volume profile analysis shows that the highest concentration of trading is located around the point of control at $156.96, a level that could act as a reference to determine whether the stock manages to stabilize or continues with the corrective phase.
Conclusion: banks can win even if the stock falls
SpaceX’s performance reflects a common situation in major market operations: the success of an initial public offering for investment banks does not necessarily imply an immediate rise in the listed company’s share price.
Financial institutions can benefit from placement fees, trading activity, and capital markets-related services regardless of the stock’s initial performance. Shareholders, however, must deal with different factors, such as the valuation reached during the market debut, profit-taking by early investors, and the need for future expectations to translate into actual results.
The correction from the initial highs can be interpreted as an adjustment process following the strong buying interest recorded after the market debut. In companies with elevated valuations, the market usually demands near-perfect execution to justify the expectations already reflected in the share price.
Therefore, while SpaceX continues to be one of the most significant growth stories in the market, investment banks could continue capturing value through the financial activity generated around the company. The difference between both investment theses will be key: Wall Street can benefit from the business volume generated by a major transaction, while the stock will need to prove that its valuation can be sustained through future growth and profitability.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Short
Lockheed Martin Strengthens Its Naval Strategy UltraMarineLockheed Martin Strengthens Its Naval Strategy with the Acquisition of Ultra Maritime
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) has strengthened its position in one of the fastest-growing segments of the defense industry with the acquisition of Ultra Maritime for $3.45 billion, a transaction that expands its capabilities in anti-submarine warfare, sonar systems, and underwater surveillance technologies. The company will integrate the business into its Rotary and Mission Systems division, which specializes in naval solutions, combat systems, and multi-domain platforms, against a backdrop marked by rising military spending by the United States and its allies. Reuters reported that the transaction reflects the growing interest among major defense contractors in strengthening capabilities in an area considered strategic for the protection of critical infrastructure, maritime routes, and underwater communication systems.
The acquisition comes at a time of profound transformation in the defense sector, where increasing geopolitical competition has driven a new wave of investment in advanced military technologies. Beyond traditional aircraft and missile programs, underwater detection systems, acoustic sensors, and autonomous platforms have gained prominence amid rising naval activity and the need to protect strategic assets beneath the sea.
From a fundamental perspective, the transaction fits well with Lockheed Martin's growth strategy by strengthening a business line with high barriers to entry and sustained growth prospects over the coming years. The company continues to rely on a long-term contract backlog with the U.S. Department of Defense and allied nations, providing strong visibility into future revenues. This is further supported by a favorable budgetary environment, with numerous governments increasing defense spending in response to an increasingly complex international landscape.
Nevertheless, the market will continue to assess the group's ability to integrate Ultra Maritime and realize the expected synergies without compromising profit margins. As is the case with other major defense contractors, future performance will continue to depend both on the execution of awarded programs and on the continuation of government budgets focused on military modernization.
From a technical perspective, Lockheed Martin shares closed the latest session at $535.38, remaining in a consolidation phase following the correction recorded over recent months. After reaching a low of $490.05 on June 22, the stock has managed to stabilize above an important technical area, recovering part of the lost ground.
The long-term structure remains positive. On the weekly chart, the bullish trend has remained intact since 2019, although the strong rally that began in 2024 lost momentum after the share price reached an all-time high of $692 on March 3, a level that surpassed the previous peak recorded in October 2024. Since then, the stock has been developing a corrective move that, for now, can be interpreted as a consolidation phase within the primary uptrend.
At present, the price is trading within a range bounded by the recent lows and the resistance level at $550.99. A breakout above this level would confirm renewed bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of another attempt to challenge the all-time highs. In the meantime, the stock continues to find support at the 50-period moving average, a reference that reflects a price consolidation process following several years of sustained appreciation.
Should the stock lose its current support levels, the next key reference would be located around the 200-period moving average, near $437.25, an area that would be crucial for preserving the long-term bullish structure.
Technical indicators currently point to a balanced market environment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD has moved away from its previous strong bullish phase and is also trading in neutral territory. However, the histogram has begun to recover after spending several weeks in negative territory, suggesting that momentum could gradually improve if the stock succeeds in breaking through nearby resistance levels.
Another relevant aspect is the analysis of trading volume. The Point of Control (POC) stands at $534.77, almost exactly in line with the current share price, making this area the primary equilibrium level between buyers and sellers. The market's ability to remain above this level will be decisive in determining the stock's next directional move.
Overall, the acquisition of Ultra Maritime strengthens Lockheed Martin's strategic positioning in one of the highest-growth segments within the global defense industry. While rising military spending continues to provide solid support for the company's fundamentals, technical analysis suggests that the stock is currently undergoing a consolidation phase whose outcome will depend on its ability to break above the $550.99 resistance level or, alternatively, retreat toward longer-term support levels. The combination of a favorable fundamental backdrop and a still-bullish technical structure keeps Lockheed Martin among the benchmark stocks in the defense sector, although price action over the coming weeks will be crucial in confirming the resumption of its long-term upward trend.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
EasyJet surges on Castlelake bid and revives expectationEasyJet surges on Castlelake bid and revives expectations of consolidation in the airline sector
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Shares of easyJet (Ticker LSE /AT: EZJ) posted strong gains on Monday after investment fund Castlelake submitted a new takeover offer for the British airline, a move that the board of directors would reportedly be willing to recommend after having rejected four previous proposals from the same investor.
The offer stands at 6.90 pounds per share, valuing the company at approximately 5 billion pounds sterling (around 6.9 billion US dollars). The transaction will also have the backing of Brookfield, which will participate as a co-investor.
The proposal represents a significant premium over the previous market price and has boosted the company’s share price, fueling expectations that the European airline sector could enter a new phase of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, in a context where private equity funds continue to seek opportunities in companies with strategic assets and established brands.
On the stock market, the reaction was immediate. easyJet shares opened the session with a significant bullish gap, rising from 555.80 pence at Friday’s close to 604.60 pence at Monday’s open, reflecting strong buying interest triggered by the news.
From a technical perspective, the breakout of the range that began on June 25 confirms the resumption of the trend. The stock has not only broken out of its consolidation phase to the upside, but is also trading above its moving averages, which remain upward sloping, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure. The long-term trend remains clearly positive, with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Momentum indicators support this move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 82.63, in overbought territory, reflecting the intensity of the buying momentum following the news, although it also signals a potential increase in volatility or short-term profit-taking.
Meanwhile, the MACD maintains a clearly bullish configuration, with the main line above the signal line and a histogram expanding in positive territory, confirming the strength of the underlying momentum.
The bullish gap created at the open now acts as the first key technical reference level, while the overall structure continues to favor buyers as long as the price remains above that zone and above the moving averages.
The potential acquisition of easyJet once again places the European airline sector in the spotlight for corporate activity. Interest from Castlelake and Brookfield reinforces the idea that certain airlines remain attractive strategic assets for private capital, potentially opening the door to further consolidation across the industry in the coming months.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Bayer improves its valuation following Roundup legal relief
Bayer (XETRA: BAYN) improves its valuation following Roundup legal relief
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bayer shares posted a strong rally after the company announced the creation of Ruveon, a new entity that will consolidate its U.S. glyphosate business, which includes the Roundup brand. The move comes alongside a significant easing in the legal overhang after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review a case related to the herbicide, a decision that strengthens the company’s legal position against the large number of pending lawsuits.
The development has been well received by the market, as it reduces part of the uncertainty that has weighed on Bayer’s valuation for years following the acquisition of Monsanto. The restructuring will allow the U.S. glyphosate business to be managed more independently, improving operational flexibility and leaving the door open to potential future corporate actions.
The improvement in the legal backdrop also triggered a positive reaction from analysts. Deutsche Bank upgraded Bayer from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to 60 euros, arguing that the market could begin to re-evaluate the upside potential of its pharmaceutical and agricultural businesses, rather than focusing on Roundup-related litigation.
From a technical perspective, the news acted as a clear bullish catalyst. The share price broke through key resistance levels in yesterday’s session on significantly higher volume, closing at a high of €53.92 per share. This reinforces the structure of higher highs and higher lows that has been in place since the beginning of the year, particularly since the strong upward impulse starting in early June.
As long as the price remains above the breakout zone, the bias remains positive, with the €60 level gaining relevance both from a technical standpoint and due to alignment with Deutsche Bank’s new valuation. The €58.74 and €62.30 zones represent notable resistance levels from 2023 and may act as reference points in a continuation scenario toward that area.
Currently, RSI stands in overbought territory at 82.89, while MACD shows a positive histogram with both the signal and MACD lines trending firmly upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. According to the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator, overall market risk has remained neutral in recent sessions, suggesting that the move is primarily driven by stock-specific factors.
Overall, the reduction in legal risk and the restructuring of the glyphosate business improve the perception of Bayer’s fundamentals and could help narrow the long-standing valuation discount driven by uncertainty.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Buy the Dip: GameStop tests the strategy of buying dipsBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The “Buy the Dip” strategy has established itself as one of the most widely used approaches among equity investors, especially in an environment where corrections have tended to reverse toward new highs in quality assets. However, not all declines offer the same recovery opportunities, and GameStop (NYSE: GME) once again illustrates this distinction.
The company, which became the main symbol of meme stocks following the historic short squeeze of 2021, is seeking to strengthen its transition toward a more fundamental profile. The company expects to achieve adjusted EBITDA above 600 million dollars for the fiscal year ending in January 2027, with the aim of supporting its profitability narrative and sustaining its market valuation.
The case of GameStop highlights the difference between buying corrections supported by fundamentals and doing so purely on the basis of market sentiment. While in established companies declines usually reflect temporary factors, in assets dominated by speculation the risk of trend continuation is significantly higher.
In this context, the stock continues to show high volatility, typical of securities with a strong speculative component, where price evolution depends largely on the interaction between flows, positioning, and expectations.
Technical analysis
In market terms, GameStop maintains a structure with no clearly defined trend in the medium term. Since late June, the stock has rebounded after forming a double bottom at 19.91 dollars, moving toward the 22.78 dollar zone, located in the middle of the current range.
Momentum indicators show gradual improvement. The RSI stands around 57, while the MACD remains in negative territory although with a recovering histogram, suggesting reduced downside pressure without confirmation of a trend change.
At a structural level, the stock maintains a consolidation pattern in the form of a pennant with lower highs and relatively stable lows, reflecting volatility compression within a corrective process. The stock remains below previous relevant reference levels: 64.69 dollars in 2024, 35.74 dollars in 2025, and 26.875 dollars in May 2026, confirming the persistence of a lower-high structure.
Key technical levels are located at 19.91 dollars as main support and the 26.80–27.00 dollar area as critical resistance, whose breakout would be necessary to invalidate the current structure.
Overall, GameStop’s evolution continues to reflect the dilemma between fundamental narrative and speculative behavior. The company’s ability to sustain operational improvement will be decisive in assessing whether recent declines represent accumulation opportunities or merely rebounds within an unresolved trading range.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
IBEX 35: opening near all-time highs at the start of H2 2026IBEX 35: opening near all-time highs at the start of the second half of the year
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The IBEX 35 starts the session on 1 July 2026 remaining at historically elevated levels, trading in the early hours around 19,383.48 points, after having recently reached an all-time high of 19,587.20 points, while the market digests a combination of macroeconomic references in Europe and the United States, including manufacturing PMIs, the US ADP private employment data, and signals coming from the ECB.
The Spanish benchmark closed the previous session at 19,471.9 points, consolidating a significant advance over the year and maintaining a clearly bullish structure within a market environment characterised by stable sector flows and high sensitivity to technical levels. From a technical perspective, the index continues to be supported by an upward-extended moving average crossover, which confirms the persistence of the primary trend. However, momentum indicators are beginning to reflect a more demanding phase. The RSI stands at 69.94%, in overbought territory, while the MACD remains above its signal line, with a positive and increasing histogram, suggesting that bullish momentum is still active, although with less immediate room for expansion without consolidation.
In terms of technical levels, the market is watching the all-time high at 19,587.20 points as immediate resistance, the break of which would confirm continuation of the bullish leg. On the downside, the first relevant support is located at 18,575 points, followed by more structural levels at 16,688.72 points (S2) and 15,755.98 points (S3), the latter considered a key support within the medium-term range.
The current configuration reflects a market in an advanced stage of trend, where the structure remains bullish but with an increasing dependence on the index’s ability to consolidate above key technical resistance zones without deteriorating momentum.
In this context, the IBEX 35 maintains a positive short-term bias, although with a higher probability of sideways movements or profit-taking episodes after the strong rally towards all-time highs.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
BTCUSD loses 2024 highs consolidating 2021 support zoneBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading around $53,480 in early trading on Tuesday, June 30, remaining in a correction phase after the loss of relevant technical levels, in a context still conditioned by the latest halving and the advance of institutional infrastructure in the crypto ecosystem.
The fourth halving, celebrated in April 2024, reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, limiting the issuance of new bitcoins and reinforcing its scarcity structure. In the short term, the price has recorded higher volatility after the loss of the 2024 high, reached on May 31, a level that acted as a key technical reference.
From a technical point of view, the market shows signs of weakening. The price is located in the area of the 2021 highs, an area that acts as relevant structural support. In the event of continued selling pressure, the next support is located at $52,900, followed by a broader zone around $48,340. The RSI remains around 30, in oversold territory, while the MACD continues in a contraction phase, with loss of momentum and weakening of the histogram. The bearish crossover of moving averages recorded after the loss of the 2024 highs remains in place, reinforcing the corrective bias in the short and medium term. A recovery above $56,000 would allow this short-term bearish bias to be neutralized.
Regarding market sentiment, the corrections in early June were accompanied by episodes of higher risk aversion in Bitcoin and a rotation towards altcoins. However, this bias has been neutralized in recent sessions. According to the ActivTrades Crypto Fear & Greed indicator, the market remains in neutral condition, reflecting balance between buyers and sellers.
In parallel, the fundamental context continues to be marked by the growing role of institutional infrastructure. BlackRock has integrated the USDe stablecoin from Ethena into its Aladdin platform, used for managing more than $20 trillion in assets, in an operation aimed at developing liquidity and tokenization solutions, with no direct impact on Bitcoin but relevant for the ecosystem. Overall, the market combines a short-term corrective technical phase with a structural backdrop still supported by the supply reduction derived from the halving and the advance of institutional adoption, in an environment sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy and global risk appetite.
*******************************************************************************************
La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones o pronósticos no son sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
Gold approaches a "Death Cross" under pressure from the USDBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Gold remains in a corrective phase and is approaching one of the technical signals most closely watched by investors: the so-called "Death Cross," a pattern that occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. If confirmed over the coming sessions, it would mark the first appearance of this pattern since October 2023, reinforcing the perception of a potential deterioration in the medium-term trend.
The weakness in the precious metal is mainly driven by the strength of the U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. This environment has reduced gold's appeal, as it is an asset that does not generate income and typically comes under pressure when U.S. real bond yields rise.
From a fundamental perspective, investors remain focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The possibility that the central bank may delay further interest rate cuts has supported the U.S. dollar while increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, the market continues to monitor flows into physically backed gold ETFs, which could remain weak as long as interest rates stay elevated. Although geopolitical tensions continue to provide intermittent support for safe-haven demand, this factor has taken a back seat in recent weeks to the influence of U.S. monetary policy and developments in the bond market.
From a technical standpoint, gold maintains a bearish bias following last week's decline and the continuation of selling pressure at the beginning of this week. The price continues to trade below its main moving averages, while the 50-day moving average is rapidly converging with the 200-day moving average, bringing the market closer to confirming the "Death Cross." Although this pattern is a lagging indicator and does not necessarily imply further downside, it has historically been interpreted as a sign of weakening trend momentum and may reinforce bearish sentiment if the U.S. dollar remains strong.
During the early European session, gold is trading around $4,062, after recording a sharp decline last week before recovering part of those losses by Friday's close. From a market structure perspective, the point of control of the previously broken trading range is located around $4,550, with major resistance at $4,891 and immediate support at Wednesday's low of $3,958.78.
A sustained break below this support could pave the way for a corrective move toward $3,800, followed by additional support levels at $3,605 and $3,065. Conversely, a recovery in buying momentum could drive prices back toward the point of control area, although the market would first need to overcome resistance at $4,350.
Technical indicators support this cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 36%, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to display a bearish structure that began in May, although recent sessions are starting to show a gradual loss of downside momentum.
In this environment, as long as gold remains below its key moving averages and the U.S. dollar retains its strength, the risk of further downside corrections is likely to remain elevated. However, a weaker dollar, combined with lower Treasury yields and a less restrictive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve, could restore some of gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Short 
Take-Two: GTA VI arrives without delays and at $79.99Take-Two: GTA VI arrives without delays and at $79.99, boosting growth prospects
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Shares of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) are once again in the spotlight after the company confirmed that Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) will reach the market on November 19, 2026, with a price tag of $79.99. The announcement removes one of the main risks hanging over the company—potential launch delays—and sets a new pricing benchmark for the video game industry.
The significance of the announcement goes far beyond a simple game release. GTA V has sold more than 230 million copies since its debut in 2013, establishing itself as one of the most profitable entertainment franchises in history. With GTA VI, Take-Two is facing what many analysts consider the most important commercial launch the video game industry has ever seen.
From a fundamental perspective, the company has a market capitalization of approximately $42 billion, annual revenue exceeding $6.6 billion, and net bookings close to $6.7 billion. The launch of GTA VI could become the company’s main growth driver during fiscal year 2027, boosting revenue, cash generation, and operating profitability.
Furthermore, the $79.99 launch price represents an important test of consumer discretionary spending strength. A positive market reception could pave the way for other industry giants, such as Electronic Arts and Microsoft, to adopt similar pricing strategies for future blockbuster releases.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, TTWO maintains a solid long-term bullish trend and continues to trade very close to all-time highs. Over the last twelve months, the stock has experienced significant volatility, fluctuating between highs of $264.79 and lows of $177.35, reached during the correction seen earlier this year.
Since those lows, the share price has recovered steadily, retesting on two occasions the key resistance zone around $240, which is where the stock is currently trading. This range represents an important consolidation area from which the next directional move could emerge.
Technical indicators are sending mixed signals, although the overall bias remains constructive. The RSI continues to reflect some loss of momentum following recent gains, while the MACD is beginning to show signs of short-term bullish exhaustion. However, moving-average crossovers continue to support a positive structure consistent with a new expansion phase.
A break above the $252 resistance level would reinforce the bullish scenario and open the door to a fresh move toward record highs. Conversely, a sustained decline below $220 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $212 area.
It is also worth noting that the ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator registered an extreme Risk-Off environment during the previous trading session, accompanied by significant institutional outflows from the U.S. equity market. This factor may have contributed to TTWO’s recent pullback and suggests that part of the selling pressure was more closely linked to broader market sentiment than to company-specific developments.
The final confirmation of the launch date makes GTA VI the key catalyst for Take-Two over the coming quarters. From this point forward, investor attention will focus on pre-order trends, sales expectations, and the company’s ability to convert more than a decade of anticipation into sustained earnings growth.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
EUR/USD retreats after U.S. manufacturing PMI despite weak jobsEUR/USD retreats after U.S. manufacturing PMI despite weak employment
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The EUR/USD fell on Tuesday after a strong U.S. manufacturing activity reading briefly supported the dollar, although weakness in employment within the sector limited further gains for the greenback.
The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 in June, its highest level since May 2022, firmly in expansion territory. The increase was driven by a rise in advance orders, as companies sought to protect themselves from potential supply chain disruptions and cost pressures linked to tensions in the Middle East.
However, the report showed a notable divergence: the employment component fell to 47.0, its lowest level since May 2020, signaling contraction in hiring despite rising activity. This combination suggests an expansion driven more by production and inventories than by a broad-based improvement in demand.
Markets initially interpreted the data as positive for the dollar, reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy and reducing expectations of near-term interest rate cuts. However, the weakness in employment added caution, raising doubts about the sustainability of the expansion cycle and its potential implications for Federal Reserve policy.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD corrected from 1.13909 to 1.13511, extending the bearish phase that began at the end of the previous week. The RSI fell to 25.09, entering oversold territory, reflecting strong selling pressure and the potential for short-term technical rebounds, without signaling a trend reversal. The MACD remains bearish, with the histogram continuing to expand in negative territory, indicating accelerating downward momentum. Market focus remains on the Point of Control (POC) at 1.16904, whose breakdown began on June 11 and was confirmed during the Asian session on June 22, reinforcing the short-term bearish structure.
Moving averages remain aligned to the downside after the recent bearish crossover, maintaining a negative bias unless key lost levels are reclaimed. In the short term, 1.1350 acts as immediate support, while 1.1390 remains the first resistance. Further deterioration in sentiment could extend losses, while oversold conditions may support technical rebounds.
Markets will continue to watch upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data to assess whether the strength in the PMI reflects sustainable growth or a temporary adjustment driven by geopolitical factors and inventory buildup.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Meta accelerates its bet on WhatsApp in IndiaMeta accelerates its bet on WhatsApp in India with investment in CRED and strategic shift toward payments
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) has announced a $900 million investment in Indian fintech CRED, acquiring a stake of approximately 20%, in a transaction that reinforces its strategy to expand digital payments within WhatsApp. The deal is accompanied by a leadership change: Kunal Shah, founder of CRED, will assume global leadership of WhatsApp, replacing Will Cathcart, who leaves the role after seven years. The move takes place in a context of strong positioning of WhatsApp in India, its largest market with more than 500 million users, within a global base exceeding 3 billion monthly users. CRED, founded in 2018, is a payments and credit management platform with around 17 million monthly users and a relevant presence in card payments in India, where it processes a significant share of credit transaction volumes. The company was valued at around $4.5 billion in its latest funding round.
India as a monetization laboratory
The transaction reinforces Meta’s objective of turning WhatsApp into a payments infrastructure integrated into chat, a model that seeks to resemble Asian “super-apps”. The strategy focuses on integrating payments, commerce and financial services without compromising the messaging experience.
Shah’s appointment aims to accelerate WhatsApp monetization in emerging markets, particularly in India, where competition in digital payments is intense, with established players within the UPI ecosystem.
Market reading and technical structure
From a market perspective, Meta Platforms maintains a structural growth narrative supported by three pillars: the expansion of AI-driven advertising monetization, improved efficiency in ad targeting, and the growing contribution of Instagram Reels as a revenue growth driver. In this context, the investment in CRED and the strategic redesign of WhatsApp are interpreted as an expansion of the “optionality value” of the messaging ecosystem, historically under-monetized compared to the group’s digital advertising divisions.
The market is incorporating this move as a potential acceleration of Meta’s total addressable market (TAM) in digital financial services, particularly in emerging economies such as India. However, this potential remains dependent on execution capabilities in a highly competitive and regulated environment, where digital payments adoption is already dominated by consolidated infrastructures such as UPI and strongly entrenched local players.
In technical terms, the stock has developed a broad consolidation process during 2025–2026, with significant oscillations between recent highs near $700 and progressively rising support areas in the $520–580 range. The price is currently testing a key zone after repeated approaches to the $559 area, which acts as an immediate reference for equilibrium between supply and demand.
Momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, reflect a corrective phase with a loss of directional strength in the short term, although without confirmation of a structural reversal in the medium- and long-term framework. The recent bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day moving averages has reinforced a tactical weakening bias, with loss of institutional control around the value area near $607.
Under this context, a bearish scenario would open potential extensions toward the $522 area as a first relevant support, with further extension toward $480 in the event of intensified selling pressure. Conversely, a sustained recovery above the $607 area would represent an initial signal of re-accumulation, enabling a progressive move toward resistance at $631 and subsequently $680.
Overall, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator reflects a neutral risk environment, with the stock closely correlated to the broader US market bias, increasing Meta’s sensitivity to macro movements and systemic volatility episodes.
Capital, Talent and Strategy
The move combines capital, talent and strategy: Meta is not only investing in an Indian fintech, but also reshaping WhatsApp’s leadership architecture to accelerate its transition toward a payments and digital commerce ecosystem. India thus consolidates its role as the company’s primary monetization laboratory, while the market assesses whether this structural shift will be sufficient to turn WhatsApp into a meaningful source of recurring revenue.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Ryanair ensures stability: Michael O'Leary as CEO until 2032
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Ryanair shares could see movement at the opening of the session after the company confirmed the renewal of Michael O'Leary as Chief Executive Officer until 2032, thereby extending the mandate of the executive who has led the airline for more than three decades.
The decision removes uncertainty over the future direction of the group at a time when the company is consolidating its position as the largest European airline by number of passengers.
Ryanair carried nearly 200 million passengers in its last fiscal year and recorded a net profit of more than 1.6 billion euros in 2025, supported by strong travel demand in Europe, despite a moderation in fares compared to post-pandemic levels.
O'Leary, who has been at the head of the company since 1994, has been the main driver of the low-cost model that has defined Ryanair’s strategy, based on operational efficiency, high fleet utilisation, and route expansion in key European markets.
Strategic visibility and growth targets
The continuity of the executive comes in parallel with the airline’s plans to reach 300 million passengers annually by 2034, compared to current levels of around 200 million, supported by the incorporation of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft and the expansion of capacity at secondary European airports.
The company also maintains a leading position in operational indicators, ranking among the most punctual airlines in Europe over the past year, with rates above 85% in various periods of the fiscal year.
Market impact and valuation
With a market capitalisation of around 25 billion euros, Ryanair has maintained a positive performance on the stock market in recent years, supported by the recovery in air traffic and improvements in operational efficiency.
Investors will continue to closely monitor the evolution of demand during the summer season, as well as the group’s ability to execute its growth plan in an environment shaped by the delivery of new aircraft and the evolution of operating costs.
Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, Ryanair maintains a broader bullish structure, with a gradual recovery from May lows and the formation of higher highs and higher lows. The stock is trading around 25.82 euros, consolidating the recent rebound phase.
The RSI at 59.22 reflects a positive bias without entering overbought territory, while the MACD maintains a bullish crossover with a positive histogram, confirming upward momentum.
In terms of key levels, resistance is located between 27.60 and 28.32 euros, whose breakout would open the way towards previous highs. On the downside, immediate support is found around 25 euros, a key level to preserve the current structure.
Moving averages show gradual improvement: the 50-day average has crossed above the 100-day average, although the price is still below the 200-day average, a key reference for confirming a fully established long-term trend.
Conclusion
The renewal of Michael O'Leary until 2032 strengthens Ryanair’s strategic visibility in an environment of expansion in European air traffic. For the market, the move consolidates the continuity of an operating model that has supported the group’s growth and profitability over the past decades.
The market reaction will depend on whether investors interpret the news as an additional catalyst within an already established trend or as a confirmation factor of the existing strategy.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Intel surges after Apple partnership to manufacture US chipsIntel surges after Apple partnership to manufacture chips in the U.S.
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is surging in the stock market after President Donald Trump announced that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will collaborate with the chipmaker to design and produce semiconductors on U.S. soil.
The market interprets the move as more than just an industrial agreement: it is a direct validation of Intel’s attempt to reposition itself as a contract manufacturing giant in a sector that has so far been dominated by TSMC (TPE:2330). The fact that Apple, the world’s largest consumer of advanced chips, could rely on Intel represents a meaningful narrative shift for the market. The reaction has been swift. Intel shares have accelerated strongly, reflecting expectations of structural and recurring demand that could transform its revenue profile in the coming years.
Beyond the political headline, the move reinforces the perception that the United States is driving a restructuring of its technology supply chain, with semiconductors as a key strategic asset. For Intel, the impact is twofold: an immediate reputational boost and a potential entry into the supply chain of one of the most demanding clients in the world.
Intel technical analysis
From a technical perspective, the stock maintains a clearly bullish trend, with a structure of higher highs and higher lows. In the medium term, it is currently trading within a consolidation range between the highs of 135.08 and the lows of 98.33 dollars. The price is now in a critical resistance zone after breaking recent highs yesterday, where the market could decide between a continuation of the rally or profit-taking following the strong move driven by the news.
The immediate support of the current impulse is located around 120 dollars. As long as these levels hold, the structure continues to favor buyers. RSI stands in a neutral zone at 55.45%, while MACD is positioned in a recovery phase to the upside. Moving averages remain positively aligned, although the vertical pace of the move suggests possible short-term consolidation before further upside attempts.
If the deal goes through, Intel gains credibility
If the agreement with Apple materializes, Intel would not only gain revenue: it would gain industrial credibility at a critical moment in its transformation. The market, for now, is aggressively buying into that narrative.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
SpaceX accelerates its AI strategy acquiring CursorSpaceX accelerates its AI strategy with the acquisition of Cursor following its historic IPO
By Ion Jauregui – Market Analyst
SpaceX has expanded its exposure to the artificial intelligence sector with the acquisition of Anysphere, developer of the Cursor platform, in a deal valued at $60 billion through a share-for-share exchange. The move comes just days after its Nasdaq debut under the ticker SPCX, consolidating one of the most volatile and active early stages recorded in a major IPO in recent years. Cursor, one of the fastest-growing AI-assisted programming tools, competes directly with solutions such as GitHub Copilot and developments driven by Google, in a market where code automation has become a strategic axis for major technology groups. The transaction reinforces SpaceX’s transition from a company focused on the aerospace sector to a technology conglomerate with direct exposure to artificial intelligence, advanced computing and software services, significantly expanding its valuation universe in public markets.
Market reaction and equity context
SpaceX shares have shown high sensitivity to corporate announcements since their debut. Following the IPO, the stock recorded an initial upside expansion of more than 50% in its first sessions, followed by a consolidation phase characterized by elevated volatility and active institutional rotation.
On the June 17 session, the stock traded within an intraday range of approximately $190 to $225, after marking an all-time high at $225.64 during the momentum driven by the acquisition announcement. The stock then retraced toward the $195–200 area, which now acts as a short-term equilibrium zone following the initial expansion. Trading volume remained significantly above the IPO average, reflecting an incomplete price discovery process dominated by directional flows rather than established technical structures.
Technical view: post-IPO price structure
From a technical standpoint, SpaceX is currently in a typical range-building phase following an initial liquidity event. The move from the $135 IPO price to the $225.61 high has generated an impulsive leg of nearly 67%, followed by a normalization of volatility.
Immediate relevant support is located in the $191.31 area, a level that coincides with the retracement of the post-Cursor announcement impulse and where the market has shown the highest volume absorption in recent sessions. Below this, the structural reference level remains around $160–165, corresponding to the first consolidation phase after the debut, now acting as a secondary medium-term support zone.
On the upside, key resistance remains at the all-time high of $225.61. A sustained breakout above this level would require confirmation of institutional buying flow and an extension of post-IPO momentum, a typical feature of price discovery phases but not yet confirmed in the short term.
Daily RSI behavior has shown a move out of overbought territory following the acquisition-driven peak, suggesting a normalization of momentum rather than a structural trend reversal. However, the steep initial slope implies that the asset is still operating in an early-stage trend phase, highly dependent on flows and corporate news.
Wednesday’s session showed a corrective price wave while maintaining upward momentum. At this stage, no additional sentiment indicators are clearly visible beyond RSI, which is beginning to stabilize around a mid-zone reading of 55.68%.
Market implications
The acquisition of Cursor adds another layer of narrative expansion to SpaceX’s equity story, which already trades as a hybrid between space infrastructure, telecommunications, and now an artificial intelligence platform.
However, from a market perspective, the combination of elevated valuation, strong dependence on post-IPO momentum and aggressive expansion into AI introduces an asymmetric risk profile in price formation. In this context, the market is still in a phase of adjustment between structural growth expectations and validation of implied multiples. The session following the announcement suggests that investors are beginning to differentiate between initial speculative momentum and the construction of a more stable technical base, with the $190–225 range acting as the first key battleground for the next phase of the stock.
In this environment, SpaceX is consolidating as one of the most closely watched US assets, not only for its exposure to space, but also for its growing role in the artificial intelligence value chain.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Nvidia: Record Debt, Demanding Results&Technical Correction RiskNvidia: Record Debt, Demanding Results and Technical Risk of Correction
By Ion Jauregui – Market Analyst
Nvidia is once again at the epicentre of the market. The company, now established as the main proxy for artificial intelligence, operates in an environment where fundamentals remain extremely solid, but where the price is beginning to reflect an increasingly high level of expectations.
Market attention is concentrated on three catalysts: upcoming quarterly results, the continuation of the demand cycle following the latest GTC event, and the recent corporate debt issuance, the first in five years.
At GTC, Jensen Huang reinforced the structural growth narrative of AI through the evolution of its technological roadmap, highlighting the Vera Rubin architecture and new solutions for data centres, AI agents, and accelerated computing. The message left no doubt: demand for computing capacity continues to exceed available supply.
In this context, Nvidia’s return to the bond market is understood. The company has increased its issuance to $25 billion, with demand close to $85 billion, which highlights strong institutional appetite for the credit of the world’s leading AI semiconductor company.
Rather than a liquidity need, the operation reflects the intensity of the current investment cycle. Nvidia continues to generate cash robustly, but the speed of infrastructure deployment requires a volume of capital that no longer depends solely on operating cash flow. Part of these resources ultimately flows directly into the entire value chain, with key players such as TSMC and ASML as structural beneficiaries of the investment cycle.
The market now moves towards the next major test: earnings. Consensus continues to point to strong double-digit growth, with particular attention on Blackwell demand, margin evolution, and the ability to maintain the pace of expansion in data centres. The issue is not so much growth itself, but the magnitude of expectations already priced in.
Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, Nvidia is beginning to show a more cautious structure following recent highs. On the daily chart, the stock appears to be developing a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, still unconfirmed but increasingly relevant from a market structure point of view. The loss of momentum from the highs and the inability to continue trending suggest a distribution phase rather than expansion.
The RSI is currently in a neutral zone, while the MACD shows exhaustion of the bearish move, and to some extent we are witnessing a compression of price action towards the mid-range of the longer-term range.
In this context, price is undergoing a bearish pullback towards the neckline area, a key level that defines the validity of the pattern.
If this zone is broken with confirmation, the technical target points towards the $164 area, a level that also coincides with previous consolidation zones within the broader bullish cycle and with late-March lows.
On the other hand, a clear recovery of the current correction, breaking above $210 at the first shoulder / recent highs area, would invalidate the pattern and return full control to the primary trend.
The situation is particularly relevant because it highlights an increasingly visible divergence between fundamentals and price: while the AI growth story continues to accelerate and access to financing remains favourable, the chart is beginning to reflect a market that has already priced in much of that optimism. Upcoming earnings will be the true validation point of this narrative.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Brent corrects its price zone following US-Iran preagreementBrent corrects its price zone following preliminary agreement between the US and Iran over Hormuz
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Oil prices recorded sharp declines on Monday after the United States and Iran announced an agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes, thereby reducing fears of prolonged disruptions to global crude oil supplies.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell below the key $83 area, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded slightly above $80 per barrel. Both contracts accumulated losses of more than 10% over the last two sessions, reflecting the rapid removal of part of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices during the months of conflict.
US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Iran to allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade affecting Iranian ports. The pact, which according to Pakistani authorities will be formally signed this week in Switzerland, seeks to bring an end to several months of hostilities that had significantly disrupted international energy trade.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global energy markets. Approximately 20% of the world's oil consumption passes through this maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets. Its closure forced numerous exporters to seek alternative routes, increasing logistical costs and raising uncertainty over supply.
The market reaction reflects expectations that oil flows could gradually normalize if the terms of the agreement are implemented as planned. However, traders and analysts remain cautious regarding the possibility of delays or difficulties in the execution of the pact.
Price developments also coincide with a market environment in which investors continue to closely monitor global demand prospects, particularly in China, as well as future production decisions from OPEC+.
Brent technical analysis
From a technical perspective, Brent has corrected sharply following the gains recorded during the period of maximum geopolitical tension.
After breaking below the $90 level ahead of schedule on Thursday, Brent continued its bearish correction during Friday's session. This downward move extended into the opening of the European session on Monday, pushing prices below $83 per barrel, trading around $82.40 during the first half hour after breaking below the 200-day moving average.
The midpoint of the previous trading range is located around $74.80 per barrel. Should the current bearish momentum continue testing lower prices, we could see a correction toward the point of control near the $67 area.
A close below current levels could increase selling pressure and support the moves described above, with the psychologically important $80 per barrel level remaining under close market scrutiny.
On the upside, current resistance levels are found at the former support zone around $86–87 per barrel and subsequently at $91, a level that defined much of the risk escalation phase associated with the Middle East conflict.
Momentum indicators show a rapid reduction in the overbought conditions observed during previous weeks, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 37.14%, while the MACD remains bearish with an extension below the negative histogram, reflecting the market's sensitivity to any developments regarding the implementation of the agreement.
In the short term, crude oil prices will remain closely linked to the effective reopening of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signals coming from OPEC+, and the ability of major economies to sustain energy demand growth during the second half of the year.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Trump shifts Brent downwards and reduces risk premiumBrent falls after Trump shift as geopolitical relief reduces risk premium
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Crude oil prices declined in the latest session, with Brent falling more than 8% to around $87.82 per barrel in a single trading day, in a context marked by a sharp shift in the geopolitical tone from the United States regarding Iran and a rapid unwinding of the Middle East risk premium.
The move followed initial statements by President Donald Trump on his Truth Social account, where he suggested a potential military escalation and the expansion of targets toward strategic assets such as Kharg Island. The remarks were interpreted by markets as an escalation in geopolitical risk across the region. However, during the close of the US session, the president significantly softened his stance, suggesting progress in diplomatic talks with Tehran and the possibility of de-escalation.
This change in narrative triggered a sharp reversal in prices, which had previously traded near recent highs of $95–98 per barrel before correcting strongly during the session, effectively erasing a large portion of the risk premium built up in recent days.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude trade flows, remains the key area of focus for market participants. However, immediate risk perceptions have eased, reducing upward pressure on prices.
The oil decline coincided with a stronger tone across equity markets, driven by expectations of lower inflationary pressures stemming from weaker energy prices. Meanwhile, sovereign bond yields edged lower, reflecting a more relaxed macroeconomic backdrop.
Looking ahead, markets will remain highly sensitive to further developments in US–Iran negotiations, as well as any signals from OPEC+ regarding supply policy. The combination of geopolitical and fundamental drivers suggests that volatility is likely to remain elevated.
From a technical perspective, the move unfolded from the Asian session through to European trading, with an intraday low at $85.23. Brent is currently holding above its 200-day moving average, a break below which could signal a deeper corrective phase.
In that scenario, support is seen at $81.50, followed by $74.79, with a broader point of control around $70.80. The RSI is near 33, indicating sustained downside pressure, while the MACD remains negative with a declining histogram.
Brent’s trajectory will largely depend on whether markets consolidate the de-escalation narrative or whether supply disruption risks in the Middle East re-emerge.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
