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Bitcoin bear market: Is the end near?Bitcoin is once again moving lower today, trading just below the $67,000 psychological level at the time of writing. Last week's stunning rebound, after a similarly stunning drop to $60k, has been resisted at its 9-day simple moving average (SMA). From peak to trough, the world's biggest crypto has fallen over 52% since its all-time intraday high of $126,195.50 registered on October 6th, 2025. NOTE: An asset enters a "bear market" when its price has fallen 20% from its recent peak. How low could BTC go? Among crypto aficionados, this is arguably the most pressing question at present. In an attempt to make an informed outlook, we refer to Bitcoin's past decade. First, we outline the previous bear and bull markets, from peak to trough, since 2017: Bear - 12 months (Dec 2017 till Dec 2018): down 84% Bull - 35 months (Dec 2018 till Nov 2021): up 2100% Bear - 12 months (Nov 2021 - Nov 2022): down 77% Bull - 35 months (Nov 2022 - Oct 2025): up 711% Going by the trend above: Bitcoin's bear market takes 12 months to play out fully Bitcoin then soars "to the moon" over the subsequent 3 years Perhaps more importantly, from a % performance perspective, Bitcoin's market cycles have been more compressed: Bear cycles have been shallower over the past decade (down 84% from Dec 2017 - Dec 2018 peak to trough VS. 77% in Nov 2021 - Nov 2022) Bull cycles have also been "smaller" in % terms (up 711% from Nov 2022 - Oct 2025 trough to peak VS. 2100% surge between Dec 2018 - Nov 2021) From a duration perspective, given that we're just 4 months into this current bear market (Oct 2025 record high - Feb 2026), we may only be one-third into this current bear cycle. However, as we had covered in our 2026 Annual Crypto Outlook, it may well be different this time. Watch the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) For the immediate term, traders and long-term investors are eyeing the 200-week SMA. Historically, when Bitcoin hits its 200-week SMA, this technical indicator has served as the launchpad for Bitcoin to go on a multi-year bull run (except during the 2022-2023 crypto winter - for structural reasons). Even if Bitcoin were to tumble to the $58,200 region (where its 200-week SMA currently resides), that would also mark a decline of "just" 54%. This would be in keeping with the "compression" trend we have seen over past bear and bull cycles since 2017. Whales starting to return, but who else? Perhaps it's that thinking (200-week SMA offering historic support for Bitcoin) that enticed whales to buy-the-dip last week. NOTE: Whale wallets hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin each. According to research firm Glassnode, so-called "whale wallets" accumulated about 53,000 Bitcoins last week (Feb 2-9, 2026) - a period when Bitcoin fell to $60,000, which was a mere 3% away from its 200-week SMA. Those 53,000 Bitcoins marked this cohort's biggest purchases since November 2025! However, for proper context, about 170,000 Bitcoin have left such whale wallets (excluding ETFs and exchanges) since mid-December. Hence, last week's purchases (53,000 bitcoins) are just less than one-third of the amount sold over the past couple of months. Average BTC ETF investor underwater In our recent report with Block Scholes (published February 5th), we note that the average BTC purchase price for ETF investors is $84,000. At the current prices below $70k at the time of writing, the average person who invested into Bitcoin via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is bearing losses. Bitcoin ETF investors have also net sold about US$ 7.9 billion out since the October 2025 crash, with US$ 1.8 billion of those net purchases occurring so far in 2026. As Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, has shared with the media: "There's still a notable lack of confidence-boosting catalysts along crypto's near-term horizon, even as sentiment has clearly detached from the constructive fundamentals." In other words, crypto confidence requires a major boost which entices more funds flowing back into Bitcoin and co, in order to see a sustained recovery. Such a catalyst may occur, though bulls (those hoping for higher prices) will be hoping that today's (Wed, Feb 11th) US jobs report, and Friday's (Feb 13th) US inflation data release may embolden more risk-taking activities on hopes that the Fed can lower US interest rates to support financial conditions and US economic growth. But first, Bitcoin's 200-week SMA beckons, if prices do get there.

Gold hits $5100 (told ya)! How high can it go?Gold has posted yet another record high, now testing immediate resistance around that big, round $5100 number. Although its RSI (relative strength index) is already well into "overbought" territory, any sudden immediate pullback may yet present a buy-the-dip opportunity for fundamentally-driven investors. Admittedly, $5k gold arrived sooner than expected, following our article titled "When Might We See $5000 Gold?" - published on Bybit Learn's blog on Christmas Eve (December 24th, 2025). Gold's surge even surprised banking titans, from OCBC to Goldman Sachs, smashing past their end-2026 targets of $4800 and $4900 respectively (see their updated end-2026 targets below). To put in proper context, gold has now advanced: +13.6% since our Dec 24th article +17% so far in 2026 This comes after spot gold rose over 64% in 2025 - its biggest annual gain since 1979! Here's an updated list of the main drivers behind gold's surge, though what we'd cited in last month's article remains largely intact: 3 Reasons Why Gold is Soaring 1) Rising geopolitical fears ----- Gold has roared higher in the new year, given the tide of rising geopolitical fears across markets. Before the first month of 2026 has even come to a close, the world has already witnessed: US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Greenland Crisis (although President Trump has reached a framework deal with European leaders with regards to Greenland). Trump's tariff threats: POTUS has once again brandished his trade tariffs weapon against European nations (e.g. Greenland 8), Canada, and most recently South Korea. Reawakened turmoil on the geopolitical stage has sent investors scurrying towards safe havens, including gold. 2) Weaker US dollar ----- The US dollar (as measured by the Bloomberg dollar index) has now reached its weakest levels since March 2022, while the benchmark US dollar index (DXY) is also threatening to do the same. The "buck" has weakened as: President Trump looks to increasingly isolate the world's biggest economy from the global stage. The US administration threatens to erode the Federal Reserve's independence. Markets are wary that the US government may sell dollars and buy Japanese Yen to help support the latter. Markets expect an 84% chance that the Federal Reserve a.k.a. The Fed a.k.a. the world's most influential central bank will cut US interest rates twice more in 2026. (Note: A currency tends to weaken at the thought of its country's interest rates going down). With the benchmark spot price (XAUUSD+) denominated in US dollars, the weaker quote currency (right side of the pair) has helped fuel gold's prices. 3) "Debasement trade" ----- Gold has benefitted as investors shed traditional currencies and sovereign bonds, from the US to Japan, amid growing concerns about rising government debt levels and unsustainable fiscal policies (government spending). And since gold doesn't have a counterparty, its value isn't tied to the credit rating of an economy or the success/failure of a government, unlike say stocks or bonds. This places gold as a prime candidate for investors to shift their funds into gold as major concerns surround the governments of large economies. The above-listed factors have fueled rising demand for gold, evident in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net buying 1.4 million ounces of gold so far this year. Even central banks' sustained purchases of gold have contributed to the price surge! How high could Gold go? ----- Options markets are turning increasingly bullish on gold prices, expecting higher prices ahead, while money managers are the most bullish on the precious metal since October. Hedge funds and big-time speculators raised their net-long positions on gold to the highest in 16 weeks, according to CFTC data. Here's a snapshot of gold price predictions for end of 2026: Goldman Sachs: $5400 OCBC: $5600 Deutsche Bank: $6000 Bloomberg model: $6400 (73.5% chance spot gold trades between $4080.90 - $6400, assuming current momentum holds) Overall, as long as the macro backdrop remains conducive, while central banks and ETF investors sustain their purchases, gold should have little trouble posting fresh all-time highs in 2026.