US Banks: Reading the Reaction to EarningsEvery earnings season there is an understandable temptation to focus on whether a company beat analyst expectations. Earnings per share, revenue and guidance all matter, but they rarely tell the whole story. Once the numbers have been released, the market immediately begins answering a different question: were those results already reflected in the share price?
The quickest way to answer that question isn't by reading another earnings report. It's by studying the price action. This week's earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs provide two excellent examples of why the market's reaction often reveals more than the headline numbers themselves.
The Opening Move Isn't Always The Final Verdict
One of the easiest mistakes to make during earnings season is assuming the first move after the opening bell will define the day.
In reality, the opening reaction often reflects a battle between short-term traders taking profits, investors repositioning portfolios and institutions digesting new information. It can take several hours before the market reaches a clearer consensus.
JPMorgan demonstrated that perfectly.
Despite reporting another strong quarter, the shares initially traded lower before buyers gradually regained control throughout the session. By the closing bell, the stock had completely reversed the early weakness, producing a large bullish engulfing candle and finishing back at swing highs.
The earnings report didn't change during the day.
The market's interpretation of those earnings did.
JPMorgan Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Rather than focusing solely on the earnings beat, the more useful observation is how quickly buyers absorbed the initial selling pressure. The recovery back towards the highs suggests the market remained comfortable paying premium valuations despite an early bout of profit taking.
Strong Results Don't Always Produce The Same Price Action
Goldman Sachs produced a very different reaction.
Instead of opening weak before recovering, the shares immediately attracted buyers following another impressive set of results. The stock gapped higher, strengthened throughout the trading session and broke above previous swing resistance before closing near the day's highs.
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs delivered excellent quarters.
The difference wasn't the quality of the earnings.
It was how buyers responded once trading began.
This is an important distinction because earnings season isn't simply about whether companies beat forecasts. Positioning, expectations and investor sentiment all influence how the market chooses to respond after the announcement has been released.
Goldman Sachs Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Unlike JPMorgan's recovery session, Goldman Sachs displayed immediate institutional demand. The breakout above previous resistance suggests buyers were prepared to build on the existing uptrend rather than waiting for further confirmation.
Read The Price, Not Just The Report
Bank of America delivered another useful reminder of this principle. Like JPMorgan, the shares initially weakened before recovering strongly into the close, reinforcing the idea that the opening reaction is not always the market's final verdict.
Perhaps that's the biggest lesson from the opening week of earnings season.
Markets don't reward companies simply for producing good results. They reward companies that exceed the expectations already reflected in their share price, and the easiest way to judge whether that has happened is often through the price action itself.
A stock that recovers from early selling to finish near its highs tells a very different story from one that gaps higher before fading into the close. Likewise, a stock that breaks to fresh highs immediately following an earnings release suggests buyers are prepared to continue paying higher prices despite already elevated expectations.
For traders, those subtle differences often provide more useful information than the earnings headlines themselves. Learning to read the market's reaction rather than simply the company's results can offer a valuable insight into institutional sentiment, helping distinguish between a positive earnings report and a genuinely bullish market response.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SpaceX's Starts to Trend Lower as Post-IPO Slump ContinuesSpaceX has slipped below the level where shares first began trading, extending a sharp reversal from last month's post-IPO rally. While the headlines remain mixed, the price action suggests the market is beginning to place greater emphasis on execution than ambition.
The IPO Narrative Begins to Evolve
The first few weeks following a high-profile IPO are often driven more by expectation than evidence. In SpaceX's case, investors were buying into a long-term vision centred around reusable launch technology, AI infrastructure and orbital data centres. That optimism helped propel the shares almost 50% above their opening trade within days of listing.
Over the past three weeks, however, the tone has started to change.
Supportive developments, including SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 and regulatory progress towards the next Starship flight, have struggled to generate sustained buying. Instead, the conversation has increasingly shifted towards profitability, execution and whether the company's longer-term ambitions can justify its valuation.
That change in focus is often worth paying attention to. Markets rarely abandon a growth story overnight. More commonly, confidence begins to fade when positive news no longer produces positive price action.
Support Gives Way
The four-hour chart now reflects that shift in sentiment.
Following the initial post-IPO rally, SpaceX spent almost three weeks repeatedly finding demand around its opening trading price, establishing a clear area of support. This week's break below that level changes the technical picture. Former support now becomes the first area buyers need to reclaim, while the sequence of lower highs established since the June peak remains firmly intact.
With the opening price now surrendered, attention naturally shifts towards the official IPO price. There is no guarantee buyers will step in at that level, but it now becomes the next obvious historical reference point after much of the post-listing optimism has already been unwound.
SPCX Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The one-hour chart helps refine that picture.
Price continues to trade beneath both the 9 and 21-period exponential moving averages, while every recovery over the past week has struggled to develop into anything more than a brief bounce. Rather than seeing signs of panic selling, the decline has remained relatively orderly, suggesting supply continues to emerge on rallies instead of through outright capitulation.
That leaves the former opening price as the first level to watch. A sustained move back above it would suggest buyers are beginning to reject the breakdown. Until that level is reclaimed, current price action continues to reflect seller control, with recent rallies presenting as retracements within the existing structure rather than confirmed reversals. The official IPO price sits below as the next chart reference point.
SPCX One-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Brent Crude Recovery Faces Its First Major Technical TestContent template:
Renewed fighting between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude back into focus. With geopolitical tensions rising once again, the market is approaching its first meaningful technical test since unwinding the spring conflict premium.
The Conflict Premium Starts to Return
The latest escalation has arrived at a very different point in the market than it did back in March. Back then, Brent rallied sharply as the market rushed to price in the risk of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. As ceasefire negotiations progressed and shipping flows stabilised, much of that premium gradually disappeared, taking Brent back to close the gap created when the conflict first escalated.
That leaves the market in a very different position today. Rather than reacting from already elevated prices, renewed attacks on shipping and fresh doubts over the ceasefire are emerging after most of the geopolitical premium has already been priced out.
The next move is likely to depend less on the headlines themselves and more on how the market interprets them. If investors begin pricing in a genuine risk to global oil supply, Brent could have room to extend its recovery. If not, the latest rally may prove to be another short-term reaction to an increasingly familiar news cycle.
The Recovery Reaches Its First Major Test
After finding support around the March gap closure, Brent has started to rebuild. Price has reclaimed both the 9-day and 21-day exponential moving averages, suggesting the persistent selling seen through May and June has begun to lose momentum. The recovery has now carried the market back into the descending trendline that has capped every rally for the past two months.
Just above that sits the next challenge. The cluster of April swing lows, which acted as support before breaking lower during June, now forms the first significant resistance zone. With horizontal resistance and the descending trendline lining up in the same area, buyers are approaching the first point where they'll need to prove this recovery is being driven by more than another burst of geopolitical headlines.
UKOIL Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The four-hour chart helps refine that picture. Last week's high now represents the first upside trigger to watch. A decisive move through that level would suggest buyers are building enough momentum to challenge the broader daily resistance zone.
Equally important is the July low.Should Brent remain above that level, the recent sequence of higher lows may remain in place. A move back below it would suggest the market still sees recent strength as a reaction to events rather than the beginning of a broader change in trend.
UKOIL Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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USD/CAD Consolidates Above Breakout SupportUSD/CAD broke decisively above a major resistance zone in June. Since then, rather than giving back the breakout, price has spent the past two weeks consolidating just above former resistance. Let's take a look at why that matters and the technical levels worth watching next.
Policy Divergence Continues to Support the Dollar
The fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favour of the US dollar.
Following June's hawkish shift from the Fed, markets continue to price the possibility that US interest rates remain higher for longer than previously expected. That has kept US Treasury yields elevated and continued to underpin demand for the dollar across the major currency pairs.
The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, has lost one of the tailwinds that supported it earlier in the year. Crude oil has steadily unwound the geopolitical premium that developed during the spring as tensions in the Middle East eased and supply concerns subsided. While the relationship between oil and the Canadian dollar is far from perfect, lower energy prices remove an important source of support for Canada's largest export sector.
Taken together, the combination of widening policy expectations and softer oil prices continues to favour USD/CAD.
The Breakout Begins to Settle
After breaking decisively above resistance in June, USD/CAD became increasingly stretched in the short term, with the RSI pushing into overbought territory. Rather than correcting through a sharp pullback, the market has spent the past ten trading sessions consolidating, allowing momentum to cool while holding comfortably above the former breakout level.
That is an encouraging development for the broader trend. The rising 21-day exponential moving average has continued to catch up with price and is now beginning to align with the previous resistance zone. When former resistance and trend support start to converge, that area naturally becomes more significant.
USD/CAD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The four-hour chart adds another layer to the picture. The recent consolidation has developed into a relatively tight downward-sloping channel, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. Importantly, the entire pattern has formed above the June breakout level, suggesting buyers continue to accept higher prices rather than immediately giving back the advance.
For those looking to trade with the prevailing trend, there are two obvious areas to watch. The first is a decisive break above the upper boundary of the channel, signalling that buyers may be ready to resume the next leg higher. The second is the lower boundary of the consolidation, where a successful test, fakeout or rejection could offer evidence that buyers are continuing to defend the breakout.
USD/CAD Four-hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
DAX Breaks Above Resistance as Bullish Themes AlignThe DAX has broken above a major resistance zone after spending much of the past six months consolidating beneath it. Let's take a look at why buyers have finally been prepared to pay new highs.
Several Themes Start to Align
The breakout reflects a gradual improvement in sentiment rather than a sudden change in direction.
For much of the past year, global equity leadership has been concentrated in US tech. That has started to broaden. With valuations becoming increasingly stretched in parts of the US market, capital has gradually rotated towards regions offering greater exposure to industrials, financials and manufacturing businesses. The DAX has been a natural beneficiary of that shift.
The domestic backdrop has improved at the same time. Germany's recently announced package of structural reforms has helped strengthen confidence in longer-term investment, particularly across AI, semiconductor infrastructure and digital. Combined with better-than-expected business surveys and lower energy prices, the macro picture has become increasingly supportive for an economy that only a few months ago was struggling to generate much optimism.
None of these developments are individually transformational. Together, however, they have helped create a backdrop where investors have become progressively more willing to accumulate German equities rather than simply trade them.
Compression Resolves Higher
The technical picture has quietly been reinforcing that improving backdrop.
Since the April low, each corrective phase has been shallower than the last, producing a clear sequence of higher swing lows. Yet despite that underlying demand, the DAX repeatedly stalled beneath the same resistance zone that has capped prices since the first quarter.
The final two weeks of June added another important piece to the puzzle. Rather than rejecting resistance again, price compressed into an increasingly tight range immediately beneath it. That type of behaviour often reflects supply being absorbed rather than reinforced. Sellers continue to defend the level, but each pullback becomes less convincing as buyers steadily build positions underneath.
Last week's breakout suggests that balance has finally shifted.
The immediate focus now is not how far the breakout extends, but how the market behaves if that former resistance zone is revisited. Acceptance above the breakout level would strengthen the case that the ceiling has become a floor. For those looking to participate in the trend, that type of retest often provides a more attractive opportunity than buying into an extended move.
GER40 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
GER40 Four-Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Oil: When Not to TradeAs traders, we're constantly walking a tightrope between embracing the opportunities that volatility creates and resisting the temptation to react emotionally to large price swings. Few markets have illustrated that balancing act better in recent months than oil.
Volatility is useful. Without movement, participation and expanding ranges, there is very little to trade. But volatility also changes the emotional temperature of the market. Large candles create urgency. Headlines make price action feel more important. Breakouts and breakdowns can suddenly look obvious.
The challenge is not simply identifying whether oil is bullish or bearish. It is recognising when the market is offering a high-quality opportunity and when it is simply encouraging us to react.
When Volatility Is Driving Your Decision
High volatility is not the problem. Reacting because volatility is high is the problem.
If you were not prepared to buy oil five minutes ago, one large candle should not automatically change that view. The question is whether the setup has genuinely improved.
Has structure improved?
Has confirmation improved?
Has the risk/reward improved?
Or has price simply moved quickly enough to create fear of missing out?
The following examples use the four-hour candle chart. This timeframe removes some of the intraday noise while still capturing the behaviour around major news-driven moves. It allows us to focus less on the individual headline and more on how price behaved once the initial emotion began to settle.
UKOIL Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
In this first example, UKOIL accelerates sharply higher following a news-driven push and moves well above the upper Keltner Channel.
At first glance, the move looks incredibly bullish. Momentum is strong, price is expanding and the temptation is to chase before the opportunity disappears.
But this is where the quality of the trade has already started to deteriorate.
Buying after several impulsive candles often requires a wider stop-loss, while much of the immediate upside has already been captured. The trend may have become stronger, but the trade has become weaker.
Notice what happened next. Price did not collapse. The broader bullish structure remained intact. But UKOIL rotated back towards its average, giving patient traders a cleaner opportunity with a more favourable risk/reward profile.
The Keltner Channel is not being used here as a standalone trading signal. It simply helps visualise when price has become unusually extended relative to its recent average.
When The News Is Driving Your Decision
Oil headlines can be powerful, but the headline itself is rarely enough.
Markets move on the gap between expectation and reality. By the time a story reaches your screen, a lot of the positioning adjustment may already have taken place.
That is why the important question is not simply whether the news sounds bullish or bearish.
The better question is how price reacts.
Does bullish news still attract fresh buying?
Does bearish news still attract fresh selling?
Or is the market beginning to tell a different story?
This is particularly important in oil because the headlines can remain dramatic even after price has already adjusted. A market can stop rising while the news still sounds bullish. It can also stop falling while the headlines remain negative.
That is not the chart ignoring the news. It is the chart showing that expectations may already have moved.
When Price Action Is Driving Your Decision
Price action matters, but obvious price action can also be dangerous.
A clean break of support or resistance feels reassuring because it gives traders something simple to act on. The level breaks, the signal looks clear and the decision feels easier.
But in a fast-moving, news-driven market like oil, the first break is not always the real move.
UKOIL Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
This second example shows UKOIL breaking below a clear swing support level. On the initial move, the breakdown appears to confirm a fresh bearish phase.
For traders selling the break, the signal looks clean.
But price quickly reverses, reclaiming the broken level and trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market.
This does not mean every breakdown should be faded. It means obvious levels deserve context. During periods of heightened volatility, support and resistance can become liquidity areas rather than simple decision points. A temporary move through a level can trigger stops, attract breakout traders and create the conditions for a reversal.
Sometimes patience gives you a better entry.
Sometimes it simply keeps you out of a poor trade.
The Bottom Line
Oil can offer excellent trading opportunities, but it also has a habit of making poor decisions feel urgent.
The biggest candle...
The strongest headline...
The cleanest break...
These are often the moments where discipline matters most.
The next time UKOIL makes a dramatic move, ask yourself one question:
Has the opportunity genuinely improved, or has only the emotion increased?
That question will not prevent every losing trade. But it can help you avoid some of the lowest-quality ones.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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USD/JPY Tests Multi-Year Breakout LevelUSD/JPY has broken through a major area of resistance during Asian and early European trading. Let's take a look at what's driving the move and why the next phase may prove more important than the breakout itself.
Interest Rate Expectations Still Drive the Story
Earlier this month, the BoJ raised interest rates to 1% for the first time since 1995. In isolation, that would normally be viewed as a meaningful shift. Yet the market response has highlighted an important point: currencies rarely move on the direction of policy alone; they move on the relative direction of policy.
While Japan continues its gradual path towards monetary normalisation, the Fed has simultaneously shifted towards a more hawkish stance. Markets continue to price the possibility of another US rate increase before year-end, leaving the yield differential firmly tilted in favour of the dollar.
That helps explain why USD/JPY has continued to appreciate despite repeated intervention warnings from Tokyo. The authorities may influence the pace of the move, but until the underlying interest rate differential begins to narrow, the broader trend remains difficult to reverse. For now, the market appears more comfortable pricing the carry than the intervention risk.
The Breakout Now Faces Its First Test
The daily chart first established acceptance above the closely watched 160 area before consolidating into a small triangle beneath the longer-term highs. Rather than rejecting higher prices, the market spent several sessions absorbing the previous advance before attempting another push higher.
That sequence is often more revealing than the breakout itself. Strong trends rarely move in a straight line. They advance, pause and then ask the market another question: are buyers still willing to step in at these higher levels? So far, the answer has been yes.
USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The weekly chart, however, reminds us why patience still matters. USD/JPY is attempting to move beyond a resistance level that has defined the upper boundary of the market for more than a year. Weekly breakouts are rarely confirmed in a single session and, with several trading days still remaining, this should still be viewed as an ongoing test rather than a completed breakout.
Whether this ultimately develops into the next leg of the longer-term uptrend will depend less on today's move to fresh highs and more on what happens next. If former resistance begins to attract buyers on any pullback, the technical picture would strengthen considerably. If not, this could prove to be another reminder that the biggest levels on a chart are rarely resolved in a single attempt.
USD/JPY Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Gold Starts the Week with a Key Price Structure TestHaving broken below the March spike lows last week, gold starts the new trading week with an important technical test. Price has recovered back towards the breakdown area, leaving the market at a point where the next reaction may prove more informative than the initial break itself.
Gold's Changing Character
Gold's rally at the start of the year was widely attributed to exceptionally strong central bank buying, helping drive an almost relentless advance into February. Since then, however, the market has appeared to change character.
Traditionally, periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices have been expected to support gold. Yet when tensions in the Middle East escalated during the spring and oil surged, gold barely managed to hold onto its gains and instead sold off into the March spike low.
Fast forward to today and much of that backdrop has reversed. Oil has unwound almost all of its conflict premium, confidence towards the US economy has improved and the US dollar has strengthened. Despite those changes, gold has once again found itself back at the same technical area.
Perhaps the more important message is that price has recently shown a greater respect for its own technical structure than for the evolving macro narrative. Rather than reacting aggressively to each new headline, the market has continued to revolve around the same key price levels established during the spring.
A Retest and a Round Number
Following the March spike low, gold staged a relief rally into the middle of April before sellers gradually re-established control, producing a sequence of lower swing highs that remains intact today. Earlier this month, the March lows were briefly swept before buyers recovered the level, suggesting demand had not completely disappeared.
That recovery proved temporary. The rally stalled beneath the former support zone, allowing sellers to defend the area as resistance before last week's decline broke and closed back below the March lows, briefly probing the psychologically important $4,000 level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
This week's recovery now brings gold back into the same area for a classic retest. The four-hour chart shows the market testing whether the former support zone can now hold as resistance, while the proximity of the $4,000 round number adds another layer of technical significance should sellers regain control.
Retests often provide a clearer assessment of market conviction than the initial breakout itself. If buyers can reclaim the March lows, last week's breakdown would immediately begin to lose credibility. However, if the retest fails and sellers once again defend the area, the broader sequence of lower highs would remain intact, with attention likely to return towards the $4,000 level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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SpaceX: How To Read An IPO Price ChartAs technical analysts, price history is our greatest reference point.
Support and resistance come from previous reactions. Trends are built from previous swings. Many of the tools we rely upon every day require historical data to function effectively.
An IPO presents a unique challenge. When a stock first begins trading, much of that historical context simply does not exist.
So how should traders approach a chart when the market is still trying to determine what the company is worth?
Understanding Price Discovery
The first thing traders need to understand is that newly listed stocks operate differently from mature stocks.
The market is still attempting to establish fair value. Buyers and sellers have very different opinions on what the company is worth and that disagreement often leads to elevated volatility.
This process is known as price discovery.
During this phase, traders should resist the temptation to force analysis onto the chart too early. There are no major moving averages to lean on, no long-term support zones and very little established structure.
Instead, the objective is to observe how the market begins revealing its character.
Start With The First Meaningful Swings
Once the initial volatility begins to settle, technical analysis becomes surprisingly simple.
Many traders forget that it only takes three candles to create a swing point.
On the daily chart, SpaceX has already established its first meaningful swing low around $150 and its first meaningful swing high around $226.
These become the first important reference points on the chart.
SPCX Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
At this stage, the objective is not to predict the future. The objective is simply to identify the first areas that market participants have already shown they care about.
The market has effectively created the boundaries of its initial price discovery range.
Drop Down A Few Timeframes
Most traders are wedded to one or two timeframes, but when analysing an IPO chart, we need to calibrate our timeframe relative to current price history.
Right now, on SpaceX, the 15-minute chart tells a much richer story.
Since the swing high was formed, SpaceX has developed a clearly defined sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A descending channel has emerged and price has gradually worked its way back towards the initial swing low.
While the daily chart simply shows a pullback, the lower timeframe reveals the structure of that pullback and allows traders to assess whether momentum is beginning to stabilise or remains firmly with the sellers.
SPCX 15min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
This is one of the advantages of dropping down a timeframe during price discovery. The lower timeframe often develops meaningful structure long before the higher timeframe contains enough data to work with.
Volume Matters More Than Usual
With limited price history available, participation becomes increasingly important.
Volume can often provide valuable clues about how strongly market participants feel about the move:
Are rallies attracting participation?
Are pullbacks occurring on lighter volume?
Is participation expanding or contracting as price approaches key reference points?
These questions often matter more than indicator readings during the early stages of an IPO's life.
Respect The News Calendar
Another important difference between IPOs and mature stocks is their sensitivity to newsflow.
The market is still attempting to establish fair value, which means earnings reports, analyst coverage, lock-up expiries and company updates can all have an outsized impact on sentiment.
For SpaceX, the upcoming earnings releases will be particularly important because several insider share release provisions are linked to reporting dates.
Understanding these events is just as important as understanding the chart.
A trader monitoring an IPO should always know when the next major corporate catalyst is approaching.
Summary
The biggest mistake traders make with IPOs is treating them like mature stocks.
When price history is limited, the objective is not to predict where value should be. It is to observe how value is being established.
Allow the dust to settle.
Map the first meaningful swing highs and swing lows.
Use lower timeframes to monitor developing structure.
Pay close attention to participation and newsflow.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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S&P 500 Sets the Parameters of a New Trading RangeThis month's price action on the S&P 500 marks a notable change from the strong directional move seen throughout April and May. Let's take a look at what the recent swing highs and lows may be telling us about the market's next move.
Sector Leadership Starts to Shift
A look beneath the surface of the index reveals some interesting changes in leadership over the past month. Industrials have been the strongest-performing sector, followed by Financials and Technology, while Energy, Telecoms and Consumer Discretionary have lagged behind.
This does not look like a market rushing for the exits. Instead, it suggests investors are becoming increasingly selective about where they are allocating capital. Some sectors continue to attract buyers, while others have struggled to maintain momentum after a strong first half of the year.
US Sector Snapshot (1-Month)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
That shifting leadership may help explain why the index itself has struggled to make meaningful progress. Rather than moving higher in unison, different parts of the market are taking turns to lead and lag, creating a more balanced environment than the broad-based rally seen earlier in the quarter.
Lower High Hints at Compression
From a technical perspective, the early June swing high and subsequent June swing low have established the initial boundaries of what could become a new trading range. Since then, the market has repeatedly oscillated between those levels without producing a decisive breakout in either direction.
The more interesting development is what happened during the most recent recovery attempt. Following the rebound from support, buyers were unable to push the index back to the June highs. Instead, the rally stalled beneath resistance and formed a lower swing high.
SPX500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The daily chart suggests the market has entered a period of indecision, but the four-hour chart provides a closer look at how that indecision may be evolving. The failure to retest the highs before sellers regained control raises the possibility that the range is beginning to tighten. One lower high does not establish a trend, but it does represent the first sign that the balance between buyers and sellers may be starting to shift.
SPX500 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
For swing traders, the June high and June low remain the key reference points on the chart. A move beyond either boundary would likely signal the next directional move. Until then, attention may increasingly turn towards whether the recent lower high develops into a broader compression pattern.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/USD Presses Into Key Support ZoneEUR/USD has fallen steadily over the past month as a stronger US dollar and a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve have weighed on the pair. With prices now approaching a support zone that has held since last summer, traders are watching closely to see whether buyers can finally halt the recent decline.
A Hawkish Fed Keeps Pressure on EUR/USD
Last week's Federal Reserve meeting provided fresh support for the dollar after policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than many investors had anticipated. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to tackling inflation, while updated projections revealed that several policymakers now expect higher interest rates by the end of 2026.
The shift prompted a sharp rise in Treasury yields and helped fuel broad dollar strength across the currency market. For EUR/USD, the result has been another leg lower in a downtrend that has been developing since May.
The daily chart shows a market that has been staircasing lower for much of the past month. Each rally has stalled at former support levels that subsequently turned into resistance, creating an increasingly steep sequence of lower swing highs. That pattern highlights the degree of control sellers have maintained throughout the decline.
Support Faces Another Important Test
While the daily trend remains under pressure, the market is now approaching an area that carries much greater significance on the higher timeframe charts.
The weekly chart shows EUR/USD testing a support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers since last summer. Previous visits to this area have triggered meaningful rebounds, making it one of the most important technical levels currently visible on the chart.
EUR/USD Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
There was also an early sign of buying interest on Friday, with the daily candle chart forming a small bullish hammer as prices probed support. On its own, however, a single candle carries limited significance when viewed against a backdrop of persistent lower highs and lower lows.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
For traders looking to time an entry, the four-hour chart may offer a clearer roadmap. A decisive break in the current staircasing downtrend would provide the first indication that momentum is beginning to shift back in favour of buyers. Alternatively, a break beneath support followed by a successful retest could offer evidence that sellers remain firmly in control.
EUR/USD 4hr Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
For now, EUR/USD finds itself at an important crossroads. The broader trend remains lower, but the pair is also testing a support zone that has successfully held multiple times over the past year. Whether buyers can defend that level once again could help determine the next major move.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
What World Cup Football Managers Can Teach TradersTrading, at its core, is decision-making under pressure.
Admittedly, the pressure is not quite the same as managing a World Cup knockout match. Most traders are not making decisions in front of 80,000 people while carrying the hopes of an entire nation on their shoulders.
Still, there may be a few lessons worth borrowing from the men currently occupying football's hottest seats.
Masters of Preparation & Routine
One thing quickly becomes apparent when listening to elite football managers.
They are obsessed with preparation.
That should hardly come as a surprise. Once the match starts, much of their control disappears. A deflected shot, a refereeing decision, an injury or a moment of brilliance can completely alter the course of a game.
That uncertainty is precisely why preparation matters.
Managers study opponents, analyse weaknesses, rehearse set pieces and prepare multiple game plans long before kick-off. They know they cannot control the outcome, so they focus relentlessly on the process.
Trading deserves the same mindset.
Most retail traders are balancing markets alongside careers, families and the general chaos of everyday life. That makes consistency harder, but arguably even more important.
If preparation changes from one trade to the next, how can we reasonably expect our decisions to be consistent?
This is where routine becomes valuable.
A repeatable routine might involve building a watchlist, identifying market state, marking key levels, checking news risk and defining risk before a trade is placed. It does not need to be complicated.
It simply needs to be repeatable.
Emotional Detachment Is Essential
Both football managers and traders face the same uncomfortable reality. They must make decisions with incomplete information.
A manager never knows with certainty whether a substitution will change a game. A trader never knows whether the next trade will be profitable.
The temptation in both professions is to judge every decision purely by the outcome. That is often a mistake.
Good decisions can produce poor outcomes. Poor decisions can produce good outcomes. The challenge is remaining detached enough to recognise the difference.
This is where many traders struggle.
A profitable trade starts pulling back and suddenly we want to secure gains before they disappear. A losing trade moves against us and we somehow discover levels of patience that were completely absent when the trade was working. Profits get cut short and losses get stretched.
The market has an unfortunate habit of testing discipline while constantly tempting us to abandon it.
The best managers understand that not every decision will work. The best traders understand exactly the same thing.
Where The Comparison Breaks Down
At this point it would be easy to conclude that successful football managers should make excellent traders. The reality may be rather different.
The first challenge is control.
Managers are used to influencing outcomes. They can change formation, make substitutions and alter tactics throughout a match. Traders cannot.
Once a trade is placed, the market owes us absolutely nothing. No amount of analysis, conviction or screen time can force a position to move in our favour.
The second challenge is sample size.
Modern football management has become brutally short term. A manager can spend months implementing a new system only to find their future being questioned after four or five poor results.
Trading requires almost the opposite mindset.
One losing trade tells us very little. Five losing trades often tell us very little. Even ten trades may not be enough to determine whether a strategy is performing as expected.
A football manager may be judged on five matches. A trader should be judged on fifty trades.
That distinction matters because trading is ultimately a game of probabilities. Individual outcomes are noisy. What matters is whether the process continues to produce positive results over a sufficiently large sample.
Key Takeaway
Perhaps the biggest lesson traders can learn from World Cup football managers is that preparation exists to deal with uncertainty, not eliminate it.
Neither managers nor traders control outcomes.
The best in both professions simply focus on making the best decisions possible with the information available at the time.
Then they trust the process and move on to the next one.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
GBP/USD Compresses Ahead of the BoE DecisionThe Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, but that does not mean the meeting lacks significance. With policymakers increasingly divided between rising inflation risks and slowing economic growth, traders will be watching closely for clues about the future path of monetary policy.
A Central Bank Facing a Delicate Balancing Act
On the surface, Thursday's meeting looks relatively straightforward. Markets are expecting policymakers to leave rates unchanged. But beneath that consensus a more interesting debate is taking place.
Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee have become increasingly concerned that higher energy prices could reignite inflation and eventually require tighter policy. Others remain focused on softer economic growth and a labour market that has continued to cool in recent months. The result is a central bank weighing two competing risks and a market struggling to develop strong conviction in either direction.
That uncertainty is clearly visible on the daily chart. Since peaking in May, GBP/USD has been locked in a broad consolidation phase, producing a sequence of lower highs while repeatedly finding support on pullbacks. Neither buyers nor sellers have managed to establish lasting control.
GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Monday's price action offered another example. After Friday's inside day, buyers attempted to push the pair higher at the start of the week. The breakout quickly failed, with price reversing back into the prior range. While not a major bearish signal in isolation, it reinforces a pattern that has become increasingly common in recent weeks: rallies continue to struggle for follow-through.
Compression Builds Ahead of a Potential Catalyst
The four-hour chart provides a closer look at the current battle. A descending trendline has capped rallies throughout June, while support beneath the market continues to attract buyers. The result is a tightening range that reflects growing indecision ahead of Thursday's announcement.
For traders, the key takeaway is not necessarily whether the BoE surprises markets on Thursday. Instead, it is the fact that price has become increasingly compressed ahead of a major catalyst. Periods of compression are often followed by periods of expansion, and the longer the current stalemate continues, the greater the potential for volatility once a breakout finally emerges.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
For now, the chart appears to be sending the same message as policymakers. The Bank of England is weighing inflation risks against slowing growth, while traders continue to weigh bullish and bearish scenarios for sterling. Sooner or later, one side will gain the upper hand. The question is whether Thursday's decision provides the spark.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Will Brent Crude Give Back the Rest of Its Conflict Premium?With oil gapping lower following the weekend's agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, attention is shifting from the headlines to the price chart. Brent crude remains around 15% above where it traded before the conflict began, raising an important question: how much of the conflict premium is still left to unwind?
How Much Conflict Premium Remains?
Even after the recent sell-off, Brent crude remains around 15% above where it traded before the conflict began in March. While prices have moved sharply lower from their highs, the entire conflict-driven rally has not yet been unwound.
That leaves traders facing an important question. Has the market already removed most of the geopolitical premium that accumulated during the conflict, or does the recent decline represent only part of a larger repricing process? The answer matters because several technically significant levels sit beneath current prices, each representing another stage in the unwinding of the March rally.
The Next Key Battlegrounds For Price
The first level worth watching sits around the March volatility low. This area formed during one of the most aggressive periods of trading this year and represents the first major test of whether buyers remain willing to defend the broader uptrend. A successful defence would suggest buyers still see value in retaining part of the conflict premium built into prices. A failure would raise the prospect of a deeper retracement.
Below that sits the 200-day moving average. While moving averages should never be viewed in isolation, the 200-day remains one of the most widely followed long-term trend gauges in financial markets. After three months of elevated volatility, it represents the next obvious area where longer-term participants may begin reassessing value.
Beyond that lies the level many traders will ultimately be watching. The gap created during the initial phase of the conflict remains unfilled. Markets do not always fill gaps, but they frequently revisit them once the catalyst that created the imbalance begins to fade.
Brent Crude (UKOIL) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
While the daily chart highlights the bigger picture, the four-hour chart shows how momentum traders and reversal traders may be viewing the market differently. Today's gap lower has created a clear resistance zone above current prices, which some traders may monitor for signs of renewed selling pressure should Brent attempt a relief rally. Meanwhile, traders looking for a reversal are likely focused on the support levels discussed above, waiting to see whether buyers are prepared to defend them.
Brent Crude (UKOIL) Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
With price caught between fresh resistance overhead and several important support levels below, the next few sessions could provide valuable clues as to whether the conflict premium continues to unwind or begins to stabilise.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Let Market Structure Be Your Leading IndicatorMost traders spend a lot of time searching for confirmation.
They wait for moving average crosses, RSI signals or MACD turns while overlooking the one thing every indicator is ultimately derived from in the first place: price.
Unlike traditional indicators, price has no lag. The moment market conditions change, price reflects it immediately. That's why market structure can be one of the fastest ways to assess the current state of a market.
The objective isn't to predict the future. The objective is to understand who is currently in control and where that control is likely to be challenged next.
Think Balance and Imbalance
Many traders view market structure as little more than support and resistance.
In reality, market structure is the ongoing movement between balance and imbalance.
A market in balance is one where buyers and sellers are relatively matched. Price consolidates, rotates and searches for direction.
A market in imbalance is one where one side gains control and price begins moving aggressively away from fair value.
This process repeats continuously and, importantly, it repeats across all timeframes.
A daily chart can be in a strong uptrend while the four-hour chart is pulling back. A four-hour chart can be trending while the hourly chart consolidates.
Understanding where the market sits within that cycle can provide valuable context before you even begin looking for a trade.
Start One Timeframe Higher
One of the simplest ways to use market structure is to analyse one timeframe above the one you normally trade.
If you trade the hourly chart, start with the four-hour chart.
If you trade the daily chart, start with the weekly chart.
Your objective is to answer two questions:
• Is the market currently in balance or imbalance?
• Where are the key inflection points?
These inflection points are the swing highs and swing lows that define the current structure. They represent areas where buyers and sellers previously battled for control and often provide valuable clues about where attention should be focused next.
Once you've answered those questions, you can return to your trading timeframe and begin looking for opportunities that align with the bigger picture.
Gold Example
Let's assume you trade Gold using the hourly chart.
Before looking for an entry, you want to understand the higher timeframe market state. To do that, move up to the four-hour chart and identify the major swing highs and swing lows.
Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Immediately, a few observations stand out.
The market has transitioned from balance into imbalance. A major support area has been broken, lower highs continue to form and sellers remain in control of the broader structure.
Just as importantly, the chart highlights several key inflection points where control previously shifted between buyers and sellers.
At this stage, you’re not looking for a trade. You’re simply building a market narrative.
The higher timeframe tells me sellers currently have the upper hand and that any opportunities on your execution timeframe should be viewed through that lens.
You can now return to the hourly chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Notice how the previously broken support area on the four-hour chart now becomes an area of interest on the hourly chart.
Rather than randomly searching for opportunities, you have a specific zone to pay attention to price behaviour.
If buyers can reclaim the level and hold above it, the higher timeframe narrative may need revisiting.
If sellers defend the area and price begins rolling over again, the hourly chart is simply aligning with the existing four-hour imbalance.
The market structure hasn't generated a trade. It has narrowed your focus and provided context before you start making decisions.
Key Takeaways
Before looking for an entry, start by understanding the higher timeframe market state.
Move up one timeframe and ask yourself:
• Is the market currently in balance or imbalance?
• Where are the key inflection points?
• Who is currently in control?
Only then return to your trading timeframe and begin looking for opportunities.
Indicators can help refine execution, but market structure often provides the context those decisions are built upon.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FTSE 100 Approaches a Decision PointMarkets spend far more time consolidating than trending, but those quieter periods are often where the next opportunity begins to take shape. The FTSE 100 has spent several weeks compressing between lower highs and higher lows, bringing an important decision point into focus.
Compression Often Comes Before Expansion
One of the easiest mistakes traders can make is assuming that nothing is happening simply because price is moving sideways. In reality, periods of consolidation are often where markets prepare for their next meaningful move. Volatility contracts, positions build up, and eventually the balance between buyers and sellers is broken.
UK100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
That appears to be the environment the FTSE currently finds itself in. Since recovering from the March low, the index has formed a higher low while rallies have become increasingly capped by lower highs. The result is a tightening triangle pattern on the daily chart, visually representing a market moving from expansion back into compression. While the pattern itself is subjective, the message is clear: the trading range is becoming progressively tighter as the market approaches the apex.
The Levels That Matter
Drilling down to the four-hour chart provides a clearer view of the battle currently taking place. While the daily triangle helps illustrate the broader compression phase, shorter-term traders may find the horizontal support and resistance zones more useful. Unlike trendlines, these levels represent areas where buyers and sellers have repeatedly stepped into the market over recent weeks.
The upper resistance zone has consistently attracted selling pressure, while the support zone beneath the market has repeatedly encouraged buyers to step in. Despite several tests in both directions, neither side has managed to gain lasting control. As a result, price remains trapped within a relatively well-defined range.
UK100 Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
For now, patience remains the key word. Rather than trying to anticipate the outcome, many traders will be watching for price to break and hold beyond one of these key zones before assuming a new directional move is underway. Compression phases can often feel uneventful while they are unfolding, but they rarely last forever. The closer the FTSE moves towards the apex of the pattern, the more attention these support and resistance levels are likely to attract.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/USD Starts to Staircase LowerEUR/USD's structure has been deteriorating for several weeks and Friday's payroll-driven break of support has only added fuel to the move. Let's take a look at why the pair is beginning to staircase lower and what traders may be watching next.
Strong US Data Gives the Dollar a Boost
Friday's non-farm payrolls report came in comfortably ahead of expectations, reinforcing the view that the US economy remains more resilient than many investors had anticipated. The stronger labour market data prompted traders to dial back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, helping Treasury yields and the US dollar move higher.
While one economic release rarely changes the bigger picture on its own, it can often act as the catalyst that pushes an already vulnerable market through an important technical level. That appears to be exactly what happened on Friday.
The Staircase Effect Begins to Take Shape
The technical picture has been gradually weakening since EUR/USD topped out in April. Initially the market was simply producing lower highs, but a closer look at the structure shows something equally important happening beneath the surface. Each time support has broken, that former support level has subsequently acted as resistance during the next rally attempt.
That sequence is beginning to create a staircase effect on the daily chart. Price breaks support, rallies back into the area, fails, and then moves lower again. If we connect the major swing highs that have formed during this period, we can also see that bearish momentum is starting to accelerate, with each recovery becoming shorter than the last.
Friday's sell-off added another step to that staircase. The support zone that had repeatedly held throughout late May and early June finally gave way following the stronger-than-expected payrolls report. For now, attention shifts towards whether that broken support area can once again cap any recovery attempts. Swing traders looking to align themselves with the deteriorating daily structure may be watching for lower timeframe pullbacks or consolidation patterns to develop, rather than chasing an already extended move lower.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
EUR/USD Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78.48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
