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S&P 500 Tests Support Ahead of Midterms The S&P 500 heads into today's US midterm elections under pressure, with the latest sell-off bringing prices back towards an important swing low. Concerns over stretched valuations, AI spending and rising energy prices have weighed on sentiment, leaving the index facing a potentially significant test of support. With the election adding another layer of uncertainty, let's take a closer look at the daily and four-hour charts and what the market's response around support could tell us about the n

Why Stock Traders Should Know Their Beta If you trade individual stocks, chances are you'll have more than one position open at a time. Perhaps you're running a small portfolio of five or ten shares, each selected for its own technical setup. But there's an old saying that a rising tide lifts all boats, and to some extent, that applies to the stock market too. When the broader market moves, individual shares often get pulled along with it, regardless of how convincing their own charts might look. This creates a risk that's easy to ov

Gold Breaks Summer Support Gold's safe-haven appeal is starting to lose some of its shine. Friday's sharp sell-off saw prices break and close below a key summer support zone, despite a backdrop of heightened risk aversion across financial markets. Let's take a closer look at how the breakdown unfolded and what the daily and four-hour charts are telling us about where Gold stands now. A bounce that couldn't change the picture Having tested the key summer support zone at the start of last week, Gold initially attracte

RVOL at Time: Putting Volume Into Context We all know that when it comes to trading stocks, volume is a key tool in our arsenal. It helps us judge the strength of a price move, assess breakouts and get a better feel for what's happening beneath the surface. But there's one problem with taking volume bars at face value: trading activity isn't evenly spread throughout the day. US stocks tend to experience heavy activity around the market open, quieter conditions through the middle of the session and another increase towards the close. A

Gold's Breakdown Tests Key Summer Support Gold has come under renewed selling pressure, breaking lower from October's consolidation despite a broader risk-off mood across other markets. Last week's sell-off took Gold back towards the important support zone established during June and July, an area that marks the year's lows. Let's take a closer look at how the technical picture has developed and what the daily and four-hour charts are telling us about this latest test of support. A weakening trend returns to familiar territory Gol

Earnings Season: What the Market Is Really Rewarding?Earnings season gives us a chance to see how the market responds when fresh information arrives. Strong results can release weeks of pent-up buying, while signs of improvement from a struggling stock can sometimes produce an equally strong reaction. What matters is how those results compare with the expectations already reflected in the share price. BlackRock, UnitedHealth and Equifax have all rallied following their latest results, but the buying has taken place against three very different te

Using Sector ETFs to Spot Changes in Market Leadership If you have an interest in momentum trading, understanding the ebb and flow of sector leadership is an important part of the process. Sector ETFs offer an efficient way to analyse sector strength and weakness, allowing us to use our technical analysis skills to look beyond the simple performance rankings provided by bar charts and heatmaps. Rather than just identifying which sectors have performed best, we can study the quality of their trends, how momentum is changing and whether the underlyin

USD/JPY Starts to Coil Around Anchored VWAP Again USD/JPY has started to coil again following its strong recovery from September's lows. The pair is trading in a tight range around the anchored VWAP drawn from July's high, with the 200-day moving average sitting just overhead. Let's take a closer look at how the recent consolidation is developing and what the daily and four-hour charts are telling us. Recovery meets the 200-day moving average USD/JPY's recovery from September's lows has been impressive, particularly given the speed of the

S&P 500 Sets Its Range Parameters Last week's tech-led sell-off has added to the recent volatility in US stocks, suggesting the S&P 500's long-established uptrend may be giving way to a period of consolidation. The daily and four-hour charts show how a potential trading range is beginning to take shape, with some useful clues emerging about where its boundaries might lie. From uptrend to trading range The S&P 500's August breakout looked like another step forward in an established uptrend. Price moved decisively above the p

Understanding the Sell-Off in Chinese Stocks Chinese stocks have come under sustained pressure, with the China A50 index falling more than 15% from its summer highs. The technical picture is clearly bearish, but understanding what's driving the decline can tell us a lot more than the index alone. For active traders, identifying a downtrend is one thing. Understanding the pressures behind it can help us see where weakness is concentrated and what might signal a change in market conditions. What's driving the decline? Chinese stocks h

The Hourly Swing Fakeout Pattern: What Really Matters?The hourly candle chart is a popular timeframe for shorter-term swing trading. It offers enough detail to identify changes in market structure while cutting out some of the noise of the lowest intraday timeframes. One of the more recognisable swing trading patterns is a fakeout at an established support or resistance level. Price briefly breaks through a level, only to reverse back inside the previous structure. These patterns can be particularly interesting because they reveal an attempted mov

SpaceX Pauses After Strong Recovery Rally SpaceX's recovery from its August lows has been impressive, with prices carving out a series of higher swing lows over the past two months. The rally has taken a pause for breath in recent sessions, giving us a chance to examine the key technical levels that could shape the next move. A stronger structure beneath the rally One of the more useful features of SpaceX's recovery has been the change in price behaviour around the anchored VWAP drawn from the June high. Earlier rallies struggle

Brent Crude Continues to Consolidate Above $100 Brent crude has spent the past few weeks producing plenty of movement without making much progress. Sharp rallies have been followed by equally sharp reversals, but despite all the volatility, the market appears to be holding its ground above $100. Let's take a closer look at the price structure behind this consolidation, and why the bigger swings may tell us more than the day-to-day volatility. Higher lows shape the bigger picture Brent has been carving out a series of higher swing lows s

The Complicated Art of Keeping It Simple If you've been trading for a while, you may recognise the feeling that some of your clearest decisions have also felt surprisingly effortless. The market made sense, there was conviction behind the reasoning and little temptation to keep searching for another piece of information before making a decision. Finding that clarity is easier said than done. We have an almost endless stream of news, changing macro influences and more technical tools than we could ever reasonably use. The temptation is

What Dollar Strength Is Really Telling Us The US dollar has staged a sustained recovery from its September lows, pushing through its summer highs after several weeks of persistent buying. Let’s take a look at how other markets are responding to the same move. The obvious relationship is still useful There is nothing particularly surprising about the inverse relationship between DXY and EUR/USD, especially given the euro's importance within the Dollar Index. Its value here is not as an independent confirmation that the dollar is str

Has Nvidia's breakout already failed?Nvidia is back at record highs, but its latest breakout has yet to stick. Price briefly cleared the May peak before slipping back beneath it, leaving the shares caught between an unsuccessful first push through resistance and a rising structure that remains firmly intact. A breakout can fail without the recovery that produced it failing too, and Nvidia's latest price action shows why the two should not be treated as the same thing. The breakout failed to stick After some much larger swings

How a Trend Day Reveals Itself Trend days are easy to identify once the closing bell has rung. The more useful question is whether there are characteristics we can recognise while the session is still developing. Meta's recent surge provides a good example. A strong catalyst produced an aggressive opening move, but the breakout itself was only the first piece of evidence. What happened afterwards gradually revealed much more about the character of the session. The opening move gets our attention Meta entered the session

FTSE 100’s Consolidation Starts to Compress The FTSE 100 has spent more than six weeks working through a relatively shallow correction after its early-August push above the February highs failed to hold. More recently, however, the character of that consolidation has started to change. Daily ranges have become increasingly contained and the swings within the broader correction are beginning to converge. With plenty of movement still taking place beneath the surface, the quieter headline index disguises a market that remains far from sett

Gold Breaks Swing Support as Selling Accelerates Gold has started the week under heavy selling pressure, extending the decline that has been developing since the late-August peak. Monday's move has taken price decisively beneath the swing support that held into the end of last week. The break leaves gold approaching an older area of price congestion from the summer, while the speed of the overnight decline creates a different problem on the shorter timeframe. The bearish structure is clear, but joining an already extended move requires more c

Match Your Timeframe to the Question You’re Really Asking Two people can look at exactly the same market at exactly the same moment and reasonably focus on very different price movements. The difference may have little to do with their interpretation of the market and much more to do with the type of move they are trying to capture. This is where timeframe selection becomes important. Moving to a lower timeframe gives us more detailed information, but more detail isn't necessarily more useful. The timeframe that deserves the greatest weight should ref

What Happens After a Clearout Candle?Major news can produce price moves that look completely out of place compared with the trading that came before them. Occasionally, a single candle doesn't simply break from the prevailing range. It travels through most or all of that range before emerging beyond it and, in doing so, effectively resets the short-term trading environment. We'll call this a clearout candle. This isn't simply another name for a large news candle or an engulfing pattern. What matters is the relationship between the

S&P 500 Turns a Failed Breakdown Into a Breakout Six weeks of choppy consolidation finally gave way on Monday as the S&P 500 broke through the descending channel that has shaped price action since early August. The move came as renewed strength across US tech combined with falling oil prices and an easing in Treasury yields to improve the backdrop for equities. After several weeks in which neither side had been able to take control, the daily chart is beginning to look much more decisive. Sellers had their opportunity first The significa

GBP/USD Builds Bearish Momentum After Rate Decision Week GBP/USD emerged from last week's Fed and Bank of England decisions with a very different short-term structure. Bearish momentum accelerated sharply, breaking the rising trendline that had carried Cable from the June lows towards the top of its broader trading range. Price has since consolidated close to last week's lows rather than staging a meaningful recovery. With two almost identical four-hour lows now defining the bottom of that consolidation, Cable has created a much clearer test of wheth

Active vs Passive Trade Management One trade can make almost any approach to trade management look good. Tighten a stop beneath developing structure and exit shortly before a reversal, and active management appears to have done its job perfectly. Follow a slower trailing rule through the same move and the additional giveback can suddenly look unnecessary. Reverse the sequence and the conclusion can change completely. The actively managed position may be stopped during an ordinary pullback, while the passive approach remains in p