ASX 200 eyeing a pattern breakoutWe have some interesting price action brewing on the ASX 200.
Although a pullback from 8,983 occurred following the break of a double-bottom pattern’s neckline at 8,811, price is beginning to find a footing without breaching the pattern’s lows of around 8,485. The pattern’s profit objective is still calling for attention at 9,128.
Additionally, you may acknowledge the potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern now forming, with the neckline at 8,900. A break above here may help reaffirm bullish intent from the double-bottom formation, targeting the said profit objective of 9,128.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill 
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Path of least resistance remains to the upsideDown nearly 8% from record highs of 27,190, the Nasdaq Composite recently shook hands with the 50-day SMA at 25,045, a dynamic value that is closely bolstered by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 24,729.
The nearby decision point area is seen overhead at 26,268-26,078, with a break above this area paving the way for a run to resistance at 26,719. To the downside, beyond current support, opens the door to another layer of support at 23,828 and 23,972.
Ultimately, with the trend still very much alive in this market, the path of least resistance is to the upside. Therefore, traders may attempt to buy the dip from current price levels, with some pyramiding on a breakout above 26,268-26,078.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill 
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BTC/USD bears in the driving seat
Against the USD, BTC has been under pressure since the end of May and is rapidly approaching the YTD lows of US$59,780. It has essentially been a one-sided move lower after BTC/USD crossed beneath US$74,705: the 50-day SMA.
Resistance is positioned nearby between US$67,396 and US$65,693, with a break below US$59,780 paving the way lower to support at US$56,298. My view of this market remains unchanged; if we push south of this support, we should expect further downside. Stops below the US$48,807 low established in August 2024 (black arrow) would likely provide enough liquidity (sell stops from those long the market and breakout sellers) for buyers to fade and buy from the support area as far south as US$40,202-44,839.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill 
Short
USD/JPY circling the intervention zone
While implied volatility remains low for USD/JPY, the pair is on the doorstep of ¥160 – an area that markets are monitoring closely for possible intervention from Japan’s MoF.
Technically, ¥160.23 is a resistance on my watchlist, which, as you can see, withstood two upside attempts in March and April this year. Of note, the latest move lower – albeit it managed to print a fresh low – was swiftly halted after brushing up against familiar multi-month trendline support, extended from the low of ¥139.89.
Markets are tentatively approaching ¥160.23, with a breakout above this level potentially targeting the ¥161.95 high from July 2024. However, a move higher is likely to be met with uncertainty; therefore, it is worth pencilling in the possibility of a bull trap forming between ¥161.95 and ¥160.23, particularly if intervention headlines intensify.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
ETH/USD: Bears in the driving seatIn the cryptocurrency space, the ETH/USD daily chart is offering a bearish picture. Following the pair’s rejection from resistance at US$2,381, and the failure to reach channel resistance (extended from the high of US$2,383), as well as the subsequent push below the 50-day SMA at US$2,226 and recently the channel support (taken from the low of US$1,797), support at US$2,022 is now seen as the next downside target.
Coupled with the downtrend seen in ETH/USD since the US$4,864 high formed in August 2025, and assuming bears maintain their position below the recently breached channel support, sellers could target US$2,022. Follow-through selling could also take shape toward support at US$1,894, with a possible test of the YTD lows at US$1,738.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill Short 
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DXY: Daily zone breach could trigger further downsideI will try to keep this short and simple today. Following President Trump’s recent announcement that Project Freedom has been paused, markets have reacted positively, driving a bid across risk assets. While I personally think the move may be overblown, this has sent the USD southbound as traders unwind safe-haven positions.
Technically, since mid-2025, buyers and sellers have been battling for position between monthly channel support (taken from the low of 72.70) and resistance from 99.67. As you can see, price is currently testing channel support and threatening a lower breakout – a move that swings the technical pendulum toward support at 94.79.
Meanwhile, on the daily chart, price is retesting a familiar decision-point zone at 97.36-97.89 after failing to manoeuvre above resistance formed by the 50- and 200-day SMAs between 99.00 and 98.55. Sellers will likely want to see price engulf the said decision point before committing, targeting support from 96.21, followed by 95.53, and then the monthly support highlighted above at 94.79.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
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Dow gearing up for a breakout higher?While it remains a fluid situation, markets continue to cheer developments between the US and Iran, which led to a strong bid in the Dow yesterday.
In a previous report, I highlighted that the market average engulfed the neckline (measured from the high of 46,712) of a daily inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that formed around the lows of 45,000 in late March. As shown in the chart, price action is now within touching distance of the pattern’s profit objective at 48,540.
Taking out 48,540 this week will likely open the door to a run to daily resistance at 49,632, which sits within a whisker of the all-time high of 50,512.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
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USD on the back foot but could soon find a floorWith haven flows continuing to unwind, the USD has been on the ropes, but I feel the case for further underperformance has yet to be made. This will become more apparent with concrete peace talks.
Right now, the technicals suggest USD buyers could enter the fray. The monthly scale shows buyers and sellers squaring off at a channel support, extended from the low of 72.70. You will note that price has been swinging between this ascending support and an overhead resistance level from 99.67 since mid-2025, and, as you can see, is nearing the apex of these levels, meaning a breakout could soon be on the table. Above, the 50-month SMA calls for attention around 103.05, while below, support is at 94.79, closely shadowed by a 200-month SMA at 92.55.
Across the page on the daily chart, a decision point zone at 97.36-97.89 converges with the noted channel support on the monthly timeframe. This is a clear area of multi-timeframe confluence, which could prompt a recovery back up to at least the 200-day and 50-day SMAs between 98.52 and 98.70, respectively.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill Long 
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