Short
Short France: When Global Champions Meet a Domestic Slowdown1) France Has Turned Into a Growth Laggard
The image of this basket of French stocks is simple: France’s top stocks by market cap are sitting on top of a domestic economy that’s losing momentum and a state that’s running out of fiscal space.
The EU Commission now expects French GDP growth of just ~0.7% in 2025, barely up from 1.2% in 2024, and still below 1% in 2026, as political and economic uncertainty plus fiscal tightening weigh on private demand. The IMF paints a similar picture: growth around 0.6% in 2025, with weak private consumption and investment as confidence stays low.
At the same time, the euro area as a whole is only projected to grow around 1.1–1.2%, already well below pre-Covid trend and behind the U.S., where 2025 growth is still seen near 2% thanks to an AI-driven investment boom.
2)Fiscal Stress plus Political Risk = Higher Equity Risk Premium
France's growth is not just slowing – it’s also losing its fiscal flexibility:
Public debt is projected to climb toward 120% of GDP by 2027, with the deficit stuck around 5–5.5% of GDP despite planned tightening.
Rating agencies have started to react. S&P already cut France from AA to AA- in 2024, citing persistent deficits and lack of consolidation. In 2025, both Fitch and later S&P pushed France further down to the A+ area, explicitly pointing to political fragmentation and doubts that any government can deliver real fiscal repair. Moody’s has kept the rating but shifted the outlook to negative, warning that political blockages and delayed reforms (like pensions) raise the risk of debt drifting higher.
That combo — slow growth, rising debt, lower ratings, unstable politics — normally demands a higher risk premium on French assets. Yet these top French stocks still trade as more of a quality space, not as “periphery Europe with fiscal noise.”
3) Why This Basket Is Vulnerable to the Macro
a) Luxury: China No Longer a One-Way Growth Engine
After the post-Covid hopes, Chinese demand for Western luxury has disappointed badly. LVMH and other big houses have underperformed as China sales stagnated or fell. Recent analyses show LVMH share price has corrected significantly from its 2023 peak, with investors increasingly worried that Chinese shoppers are trading down to local brands or simply cutting discretionary luxury spend. Even the more optimistic luxury research now talks about a gradual recovery into 2026, not a V-shaped boom now.
b) Europe’s Industrial Cycle Is Still Weak
The euro area manufacturing PMI spent most of 2024 deep in contraction territory (low-mid 40s), confirming a broad industrial slowdown. In France specifically, manufacturing PMIs remain below 50, signaling ongoing contraction even as services sputter along. That backdrop is not friendly especially for projects and infrastructure related to AI, automation and electrification and grid transformation, or capex-driven growth, especially when higher real rates keep corporate investment cautious.
c) Policy Mix: Less Fiscal Support, Only Mild Monetary Relief
The IMF sees eurozone growth further revised down because of trade tensions and tariffs, even while forecasting only moderate rate cuts from the ECB. In France, fiscal policy is now forced into tightening just as the economy slows, to try to stabilise debt and placate rating agencies.
That means less domestic demand support for this stock basket while global tailwinds are weaker than in the last cycle.
4) Technicals – The Chart Is Screaming “Distribution”
Price has gone essentially sideways since 2021, while global indices (especially the U.S.) have made new highs, showcasing the underperformance of European stocks that still holds in the last decade. If we see a break below the trendline, the market may enter a deep correction of around 40%-50%. 
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LVMH Showing Signs of Exhaustion - Entry Point?EURONEXT:MC has formed a bearish flag pattern, indicating momentum exhaustion. The chart shows a clear upward pole followed by a tight consolidation, which typically signals a bearish continuation setup.
The MACD displays a clear bearish divergence — while price continues to make higher highs, the MACD is trending lower, confirming waning momentum. Similarly, the RSI recently peaked near 70 and has begun to flatten, reinforcing the loss of bullish strength. Volume has also declined noticeably throughout the consolidation, suggesting buyer fatigue.
Given these factors, I expect the stock to retest support around €585, with the possibility of a deeper correction toward €563. With some patience, this pullback could present an attractive long entry once momentum resets and confirmation of support emerges.
For further analysis on LVMH and an explanation of my long-term bullish sentiment for the stock please read:
Long 
Shell: Surprising Resilience in a Challenging EnvironmentBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The global energy sector is experiencing a complex stage of transformation. Major oil companies face the challenge of maintaining profitability in an environment where regulatory pressure, the energy transition, and crude oil price volatility define the corporate agenda.
While companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and TotalEnergies try to balance their investments between renewable energies and fossil fuels, Shell has opted for a different approach, reaffirming its commitment to traditional sources and standing out for its capacity for resilience in an increasingly competitive market.
Fundamental Explanation of the Major Oil Companies
In recent years, the main oil companies have adopted divergent strategies in the face of the energy transition.
ExxonMobil and Chevron, from the United States, maintain a structure focused on hydrocarbon exploration and production, benefitting from a less strict regulatory environment and lower operating costs.
BP and TotalEnergies, on the other hand, are moving forward with diversification into solar, wind, and biofuel energy, although with financial returns that are still modest.
In Europe, environmental regulations and decarbonization goals have forced oil companies to reassess their investment portfolios, prioritizing projects with quick returns and low risk.
In this context, the profit margins of major oil companies are under pressure due to a crude oil barrel price near four-year lows, which forces more efficient capital management and a strategic restructuring of assets.
Fundamental Analysis of Shell
Under the leadership of Wael Sawan, Shell plc has opted for a countercurrent strategy: strengthening its presence in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other traditional exploration and production activities, while reducing its exposure to low-profitability renewable projects.
During the first nine months of 2025, the consolidated free cash flow fell from $31 billion to $22 billion, reflecting the impact of falling crude prices, despite maintaining a constant production of 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Net debt increased from $35 billion to $41 billion, partly due to the payment of $6 billion in dividends and $10 billion in share buybacks.
By divisions:
Exploration and production: $8.6 billion in cash flow.
Gas segment: $6.6 billion.
Energy trading: $5.2 billion.
Chemical business: $1.6 billion.
Renewable energies: loss of $500 million.
Shell has also announced the abandonment of its biofuels project in Rotterdam and continues to reduce its chemical business, seeking to concentrate on higher-profit activities.
Currently, the stock trades at below 10 times its cash earnings, an attractive multiple compared to TotalEnergies, and with a significant discount relative to U.S. companies.
Technical Analysis of Shell
On the technical side, Shell (Ticker AT:SHELL.NE / SHELL.UK) shows a structure where it has attempted to break through the highs reached in the first half of 2025. The price remains this morning above €33.35, just above the 50-day moving average.
The current point of control (POC) is located around €30.75, which has been the most traded area since January of this year. If the current support does not hold, we could see a decline towards the point of control area, which practically coincides with the last impulse zone.
The RSI indicator currently shows a corrective movement toward the neutral zone, while the MACD is in a bullish trend with a histogram lacking volume, which could indicate some trend exhaustion and a movement toward lateralization due to a balance between buyers and sellers.
On the other hand, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator shows neutrality and balance in risk, suggesting that this week could mark a clear lateral movement in the price.
Nevertheless, the series of higher highs and higher lows in the weekly chart supports a constructive long-term outlook, as long as the strength of cash flow and return on capital is maintained.
Conclusion
Shell’s strategy, based on pragmatism and real profitability, contrasts with the dominant green narrative. In a fragmented energy market, the company manages to stand out for its ability to generate value even during bearish cycles, maintaining shareholder confidence and consolidating its position as one of the strongest oil companies in the world.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Dassault Cut 2025 ForecastDassault Systèmes Cuts 2025 Forecast Despite Maintaining 30% Operating Margin and Rising EPS
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
French group Dassault Systèmes (TICKER AT: DSY), a global leader in 3D design and engineering software, reported on Thursday results that demonstrate operational strength but a more cautious outlook for growth in the coming year.
In the third quarter, the company posted a 5% increase in total revenue to €1.46 billion, supported by solid momentum in its recurring business, which rose 9% and now accounts for 86% of total software sales. The non-IFRS diluted earnings per share grew 10% to €0.29, while the operating margin improved slightly to 30.1%, driven by efficiency measures implemented during the year.
However, the Vélizy-Villacoublay-based firm lowered its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to a range of 4%–6%, down from the previous 6%–8%, though it maintained its EPS growth target of 7%–10%.
By business line, the Industrial Innovation division remained the group’s main growth driver with a 9% increase, fueled by strong performance from CATIA, DELMIA and ENOVIA, while Life Sciences fell 3% due to a slower start of projects at MEDIDATA. Regionally, the Americas grew 7%, and both Europe and Asia advanced 4%, with notable strength in India and South Korea.
For the fourth quarter, Dassault Systèmes expects revenue between €1.7 and €1.82 billion and a diluted EPS of €0.41 to €0.45, supported by a solid cash position of €3.91 billion.
Technical Analysis – Dassault Systèmes (TICKER AT: DSY)
On the daily chart, the stock has moved since March from its highs at €40.85 to its September lows near €26.25. Following this decline — returning to May 2020 price levels — the stock has since rebounded to close yesterday at €30.12. This level represents a potential boundary of the long-term downward channel, where prices could move toward the Point of Control (POC) around €32.00.
Currently, the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 100-day, suggesting that the recovery trend is approaching the 200-day moving average, a potential signal of a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
The RSI stands in overbought territory at 66.26%, and the MACD remains clearly positive — both indicators pointing to upward momentum.
According to the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator, the market environment is currently risk neutral, suggesting that this move reflects the company’s internal strength rather than broader market cycles.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
IMCD Daily Bullish Divergence + 1st Higher lowBullish div on ME and mLines, also 1st HL that ticks above -1 ATR now, but bar only 50%
low forming takes a while, bullish div on X5, price above -1 ATR now on 1D, looks good. Low vol stock tho
I scale out 2/3 at 1 ATR, at TP1, then let the 1/3 remainder run into a possible uptrend
TP1
92,42
TP2
evaluate
E
88,96
SL
87,04
Trade #00017 Danone: Focusing on Gut HealthBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The French multinational Danone (EPA: BN) is going through one of its most dynamic phases in the past decade. Its CEO, Antoine de Saint-Affrique, has stated that the food industry is at a “turning point”, shaped by population ageing, evolving consumer habits, and advances in nutritional science. In this context, the group has decided to focus its strategy on two key pillars: gut health and medical nutrition.
Over the past year, Danone invested nearly €500 million in research and development, up 10% from the previous year, aiming to strengthen its position in high value-added segments. Since taking the helm four years ago, Saint-Affrique has led a deep transformation: selling non-core assets such as Horizon Organic, cutting 1,600 jobs, and streamlining the portfolio to eliminate low-performing products.
At the same time, the company has made several key corporate moves. The acquisition of Kate Farms, a U.S.-based clinical nutrition firm, and The Akkermansia Company, a Belgian biotech specialising in gut microbiota, reinforce its commitment to innovation. Although the attempted purchase of Lifeway Foods (NASDAQ: LWAY) did not materialize, Danone’s expansion strategy through mergers and acquisitions remains firmly on track.
Danone and Sustainable Growth
Danone has shifted its financial focus, prioritising sustainable growth over short-term margins. The company closed the first half of 2024 with a 4.2% increase in sales, driven by the strong performance of its specialised nutrition and essential dairy divisions.
The operating margin has remained stable despite inflationary pressures, supported by efficient cost management and a more balanced product mix. Recent divestments have helped reduce debt and strengthen liquidity, providing greater flexibility for future acquisitions.
Currently, Danone holds a market capitalisation of around €40 billion, an estimated P/E ratio of 17x, and a dividend yield above 3%, positioning it as a defensive stock appealing to investors seeking stability within the consumer staples sector.
Technical Analysis (Ticker: AT:BN)
In the markets, Danone’s share price maintains a solid upward trend since early 2024. After bottoming near €50 at the end of last year, the stock has climbed to an all-time high of €78.28, posting a year-to-date gain of roughly 25% as of Friday’s close.
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages confirm a positive signal, while the RSI, currently at 68.24%, indicates notable overbought conditions. The next technical target stands at €80, a key resistance level. Immediate supports are located at €76.28, with the Point of Control (POC) positioned near €74.80 as a key support area in the current trend, and strong support at €65.46. The MACD remains in positive territory with a green histogram, while the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator is currently in a neutral zone, suggesting European markets are far from elevated risk levels.
Adapting to Key Sectors
Danone has demonstrated its ability to adapt in a highly competitive and evolving environment. Its focus on digestive health and medical nutrition aligns with a long-term structural trend driven by population ageing and the growing demand for functional foods.
From a financial standpoint, the company consolidates a balanced strategy between innovation and profitability, while its technical outlook suggests the continuation of bullish momentum. With solid fundamentals and a long-term vision, Danone stands out as one of Europe’s most promising food sector players heading into 2025.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
$ASML – Flat Correction Complete, New 5-Wave Cycle in ProgressNASDAQ:ASML – Flat Correction Complete, New 5-Wave Cycle in Progress
ASML appears to have completed a regular flat correction (A–B–C) between 2022 and 2024, retracing nearly all of the prior advance from the 2020–2021 highs.
The impulsive recovery from the €560 low suggests the next major motive wave sequence has begun.
Structure
Wave A: €777 → €400 (5-wave decline)
Wave B: retrace to ~€780 (≈95% of A)
Wave C: final low at ~€560 (5-wave form, RSI divergence)
This fits a 3–3–5 regular flat correction , marking the end of the prior cycle and the start of a new bullish phase.
Fibonacci Wave Targets and timeline estimate (approx.)
Wave 2: 0.382–0.618 retrace → €710–€640 , Q3–Q4 2025
Wave 3: 1.618 × Wave 1 → €1,150–€1,250 , Q1–Q4 2026
Wave 4: 0.236–0.382 retrace → €950–€1,000 , early 2027
Wave 5: 0.618–1.0 × Wave 1 → €1,300–€1,400 , mid 2028
If this count holds, the full impulse could unfold over roughly three years (2025–2028) , targeting the €1.2K–€1.4K zone at the upper boundary of the long-term channel.
ASML’s corrective phase appears complete. Holding above €640–€700 would confirm a sustained bullish cycle targeting new all-time highs in the coming years.
Long
ASML Faces Technological and Geopolitical ChallengesASML Faces Technological and Geopolitical Challenges: A Giant Under Pressure
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
ASML Holding, the Dutch giant of advanced lithography, has reported solid quarterly results, confirming its role as a cornerstone in the global semiconductor industry. However, beyond the initial optimism, warning signs have emerged related to its exposure to the Chinese market and the growing European —including Spanish— interest in developing its own capabilities in this strategic sector.
Strong results, but with an Asian shadow
During the third quarter of 2025, ASML recorded net sales of €7.5 billion and a gross margin of 51.6%, figures that exceeded market expectations. The company projects an annual growth close to 15%, supported by the expansion of global demand for chips destined for artificial intelligence and data centers. Nevertheless, the company has warned of a significant decline in sales in China for 2026, a market that currently represents about a third of its new equipment revenue. Technological restrictions imposed by the United States and increasing geopolitical fragmentation threaten to affect the pace of orders in the region.
The European context and the race for technological autonomy
While ASML remains the undisputed leader in EUV lithography systems, Europe is accelerating its strategic autonomy agenda in semiconductors. Spain, in particular, is gaining ground in specific areas of the value chain. Startups such as Wooptix, specializing in advanced optical metrology, and national projects in Catalonia, Málaga, or Extremadura within the PERTE Chip initiative, demonstrate the country’s interest in positioning itself as a technological partner rather than a direct competitor. The development of advanced materials, such as synthetic diamonds for semiconductor use, aims to strengthen the European ecosystem without replicating ASML’s industrial model. For now, no Spanish company directly competes with ASML, but European investment momentum could open opportunities in complementary segments such as inspection, optics, and precision materials.
Technical Analysis (Ticker AT: ASML): Consolidation after highs
From a technical perspective, ASML shares are currently trading around €874 per share, remaining close to their historical highs of €905.1, driven by AI-related enthusiasm. The stock has shown a sustained upward trend since the beginning of the year, with key support around €804 and immediate resistance near €960. The RSI is in the overbought zone at 67.15%, indicating increased buying momentum at the start of the session. The MACD points to lateral movement, with the histogram in negative territory undergoing correction. Moving averages keep the price above the 50-day average, providing clear support for a new attempt to breach the highs.
A daily close above this resistance level could pave the way for new all-time highs, while a break below the support mentioned could trigger a consolidation phase toward €830. Volume remains stable, reflecting institutional confidence, though with signs of caution given the geopolitical scenario. ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicates a balanced market risk environment.
Still the King
ASML remains a global technological benchmark, essential for producing advanced chips. However, China’s weight in its revenues and international regulatory pressure could shape its growth path in 2026. Meanwhile, Europe —and Spain in particular— is seeking to gain ground in segments surrounding the Dutch colossus. More than a direct rivalry, what is emerging is an innovation network that could, in the medium term, diversify the European technological landscape.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long 
Galp energia Galp is a company with a market capitalization of around €12.5 billion, a well-established Portuguese energy firm listed in Lisbon.
Galp holds a diverse portfolio of assets in both traditional energy and renewable energy sectors.
Of course, everyone should conduct their own independent research regarding the company’s assets, balance sheet, and fundamentals.
In this post, I’ll focus on one specific asset from a speculative and fundamental perspective — and also touch briefly on its current technical setup.
Galp is a significant player in Namibia’s exploration sector, holding an 80% operating interest in Block PEL 83 — a massive offshore block.
Roughly two years ago, Galp drilled the Mopane well and discovered a major oil accumulation. Since then, the company has carried out several successful appraisal wells to estimate the size and quality of the reservoir.
You can easily find public information about how meaningful this discovery is and what the production tests have shown.
Since then, Galp has reported that it’s in negotiations with several global majors regarding a farm-out of this asset.
Such an event would be highly significant for Galp, as it’s a mid-sized company facing a potentially very large development that requires a world-class partner.
I personally believe we’re entering the final stretch — if no deal materializes within the next 1–3 quarters, it probably won’t happen, at least not at the valuation levels Galp is hoping for.
That said, I tend to be positive and believe a deal will happen, though that’s, of course, speculation.
From a technical standpoint, the stock recently broke above a sideways resistance zone and gapped higher — if this gap doesn’t close, it’s an interesting setup.
I don’t hold a position in Galp at the moment, but I’m constructive on the company. I also have a personal fondness for it, as its partner in the Namibian project was my largest investment during 2022–2023, just before the discovery was made.
I sold my position back then for a nice profit to set money aside for a home purchase — and, as it turned out, the well succeeded, and the partner’s stock went up 10x from my original entry price.
No regrets at all.
Of course, with Galp being a multi-billion-euro company, such exponential moves are not realistic, so no fantasies here.
Disclaimer:
The information presented here is for general knowledge purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment marketing, or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any securities or financial instruments.
Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the reader, and it’s advisable to consult a licensed investment advisor before making any financial decisions. ASMLASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch multinational corporation that is a leading supplier of photolithography machines used in the production of semiconductor chips. These machines enable chipmakers to produce integrated circuits by using light to etch intricate patterns onto silicon wafers. ASML is the sole global provider of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductor chips with smaller, faster, and more powerful designs.
Key Facts about ASML:
Founded in 1984 as a joint venture between Philips and ASM International.
Headquarters located in Veldhoven, Netherlands.
Employs over 42,000 people across 60+ locations worldwide.
Supplies to major semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel, TSMC, and Samsung.
Listed on the Amsterdam and Nasdaq stock exchanges under the ticker ASML.
Market capitalization is around $345 billion as of September 2025, making it Europe’s largest tech company.
Besides EUV, ASML also produces deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, metrology and inspection tools, and computation software.
Recent business focus includes expanding EUV production and developing next-gen lithography technology.
Business Impact
ASML’s technology is crucial for the global semiconductor supply chain, impacting industries like consumer electronics, automotive, AI, and telecommunications.
THE STOCK WILL KEEP RISING DUE TO MONOPOLY IN THE MARKET.
#ASML #STOCKS #AI Long
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Long 
Adyen's stock price experienced a significant dropAdyen's stock price experienced a significant drop.
ADYEN plunged about 18% the past 24 hours. This decline followed the release of the company's half-year results, which revealed slower revenue growth and a lowered full-year outlook
Looking at the stock technically, I see that it is trading in an ascending channel. The market dropped to as low as €1,160 in the past 24 hours, but it has recovered and is currently at €1,300 zone.
I expect the market to move from here, and my first take profit target is around 1,330. The second take profit target is at €1,880.
It's currently trading in an ascending channel and has come back to hit the channel support.
As usual, my target is mid to long term.
I look forward to connecting with you.
Please, like, share, follow me and share your thoughts in the comment section 
Long
Ryanair: Focus on Major Cities and Pressure on AenaBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Ryanair’s withdrawal from regional airports in Spain once again exposes their dependence on the Irish carrier. The airline, which had already significantly reduced its offering in Jerez, Valladolid, and Vigo, now threatens to cut another one million seats next winter if Aena does not reconsider its plan to raise airport fees by 6.5% in 2026. During 2025, the airline has already canceled around 800,000 seats on regional routes, redirecting capacity toward larger cities such as Madrid, Málaga, or Alicante, where its capacity increased by 3% over the summer.
According to Aena data, the reduction has hit Valladolid (-59.5% passengers until July) and Santiago (-13.3%) the hardest, while airports such as Vigo (+10.2%) and Zaragoza (+2.9%) have managed to partially offset the loss. Competitors, however, have not managed to fill the gap. Vueling will only resume the Barcelona–Valladolid route in October, while Volotea and Air Nostrum have not yet taken over any canceled routes. Meanwhile, UK-based Jet2.com has announced it will begin operating Jerez–London starting in 2026.
Among the routes canceled at mid-sized Spanish airports are the following:
Jerez – Barcelona
Jerez – Santiago de Compostela
Valladolid – Santiago de Compostela
Valladolid – Barcelona
Valladolid – London Stansted
Vigo – Barcelona
Zaragoza – Vienna
Zaragoza – Lisbon
Asturias – London Stansted
Santander – Alicante
Fundamental Analysis
Results confirm that Ryanair remains solid in Spain despite its regional pullback. In the first half of 2025, it carried 32.64 million passengers—two million more than in the same period the previous year—consolidating its position as Spain’s leading airline. Its strategy is clearly aimed at maximizing profitability in high-volume hubs by reallocating capacity from less efficient routes.
The conflict with Aena is key: Ryanair argues that the network model and fee increases make its operations more expensive compared to other European markets. If these are not reviewed, the adjustment could extend to more mid-sized airports, further threatening regional connectivity in Spain.
Technical Analysis (Ryanair Holdings – Ticker AT: RYA.IE)
Ryanair shares maintain an underlying bullish bias in 2025, supported by air traffic recovery and strong cash generation. The stock broke out of its consolidation range between €21.98 and €24.82 at the end of July, reaching an annual high of €27.01. However, after that surge, it corrected sharply to €25.12, a level where it has found support once again.
The most relevant Point of Control (POC) sits at €23.52, coinciding with the midpoint of the previous consolidation range. Technically, the price has lost support from the 50-day moving average but remains above the 100-day average, reinforcing a scenario of consolidation with a slightly bearish tilt. Indicators confirm this picture: the RSI stands at 43.09%, in slight oversold territory, while the MACD still reflects bearish corrective pressure.
In the short term, a clear breakout above €26 would enable a new upward leg, potentially retesting recent highs at €27.01. Conversely, a breakdown of supports could open the door to pullbacks toward €23.52—the midpoint of the prior consolidation range—or even the lower band at €21.98.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator points to a rise in risk aversion (risk-off), though still within neutral territory. This suggests that macro sentiment will be decisive: while market pressure persists, the stock may remain in consolidation. If risk appetite improves, Ryanair could once again have room to test its yearly highs.
Market Sentiment Impact (Rise in Risk-off)
The airline sector, due to its cyclical nature, is particularly sensitive to shifts in investor risk appetite. In a risk-off environment—shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, or higher oil prices—airline stocks typically face selling pressure, with capital flowing instead into safe-haven assets such as Treasuries, the Swiss franc, or gold.
Although Ryanair benefits from its competitive low-cost model and leadership position in Spain, it remains exposed to macroeconomic volatility and potential demand drops in risk-off scenarios. This duality makes the company an attractive play during risk-on phases but vulnerable during periods of global uncertainty.
Ryanair’s regional retreat is more of a strategic maneuver than a structural setback. The company is strengthening its presence in major airports and continues to show strong passenger growth. Pressure on Aena and the proposed fee hikes will set the tone for the coming months, while on the stock market the share remains in a key range, with investors closely watching the outcome of this standoff with Spain’s airport operator.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Long
Klea Holding (ex-visiomed) a new hopes :) :)The buyback and cancellation of the PARK BSAs, as well as the overall financial strategy, present several positive aspects for Klea Holding and its shareholders: Reduced dilution: The cancellation of 20,000,652 BSAs (Tranches 3 and 5) and the negotiations for Tranche 4 (22,831,050 BSAs) reduce the risk of creating new shares, protecting the value of existing shares. This is particularly important for a small-cap company like Klea Holding (capitalization of approximately €12.36 million in August 2025), where dilution can have a significant impact on the share price. Positive signal: By repurchasing the warrants at low prices (€0.01 for Tranche 3, €0.08 for Tranche 5), Klea Holding is taking advantage of the low current value of the warrants to limit their future impact, especially for Tranche 4 (strike price of €0.16, close to the current price of ~€0.203).
Sufficient cash flow: The transaction is financed by existing cash resources, demonstrating financial strength and independence from external financing (debt or capital increase). This reinforces investors' confidence in Klea's ability to support its growth without immediate financial pressure.
The mention of sufficient cash flow to finance growth projects (notably the expansion of Smart Salem and Smart Health) is a reassuring signal.
Consistent financial strategy: Capital stability: The share buybacks (announced on August 18 and 25, 2025) and the cancellation of warrants are part of a strategy to reduce the free float, which can support the share price in the medium term by reducing supply.
Debt reduction: The target of zero debt by the end of 2026, with the repayment of Smart Salem's debt by September 2025, improves the balance sheet structure and reduces financial expenses, increasing future profitability.
Cost streamlining: The reduction in holding company expenses (e.g., administrative costs) is expected to improve EBITDA, as planned for 2025 (+50% in 2024 to €3.3 million).
Solid operational performance: The Smart Salem subsidiary posted a 55% increase in tests performed in H1 2025 (+48% in revenue at constant exchange rates), with a record 17,500 tests in January 2025. This momentum supports Klea's ability to generate cash flow to finance operations such as the BSA buyout.
Smart Health's expansion in Saudi Arabia and a new investor in the KAFD project strengthen its international growth prospects. 
Long
Long
