ZN Elliott Wave Analysis: Has the Next Bearish Move Started? Short answer : Ten Year Notes (ZN) has extended its bearish sequence after breaking below the October 2023 low, signaling that the next leg lower is underway. The decline from the August 26, 2026 peak is unfolding as a 5-wave impulse, with wave ((iv)) proposed complete as a flat structure at 106’11
Compare with 10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2019)
From Breakout to Retracement: Building a Risk-First SetupDirection and location are different decisions
A breakout can tell us something important about direction without necessarily telling us where to enter.
That distinction matters because traders often treat the moment of a breakout as both a directional signal and an entry signal. Those are not th
Buying Bonds Here - Different StatisticsBonds (ZN & ZB) are the only markets that have different parameters and statistics compared to the rest. Among other things, they are the only markets where statistics show that taking partials is more profitable
Here, the Unit of Risk is 8 ticks, that is the maximum risk allowed per contract .
N
Back to the Basics - Market Structure & Risk ManagementThis is perhaps the most basic structure that the trading community in general considers tradable. It is not the only one that exists, but it certainly repeats quite often and is extremely profitable.
There are two points that need to be understood for effective trading: market structure and risk m
ZN 109 Hold: Temporary Relief or Structural Shift? A Market Caught Between Oil Shocks, Fiscal Anxiety, and a Reluctant Fed
The macro backdrop for ZN futures has been anything but quiet over the past month. The US-Iran conflict, which broke out in late February 2026, has been the dominant driver reshaping rate expectations across the board. The dis
A Skeptical Trader's Guide to Trading Repeated Failed BreakoutsTechnical patterns often look straightforward in textbooks. A recognizable formation develops, price eventually breaks through a key level, and traders begin evaluating potential opportunities. In reality, however, markets are rarely that cooperative.
One of the more challenging situations traders
ZN Short — $ZNM26 breaking down through 110.10 support on risingSetup: On the 4h chart ZN has been in a sustained downtrend since the mid-April high near 111.75, making a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent bounce off the ~110.10 low stalled at 110.28-110.33 resistance — the prior intraday base from early May — and price is now rolling back ove
ZN Short — $ZNM26 breaking down through 111.30 support with rateSetup: On the 4h, ZN has been rangebound between roughly 110.75 and 112.00 since late March, but the current price action sits in the lower half of that range after failing to hold the Apr 17 spike high near 111.80. The 1h shows a clean staircase breakdown from 111.65 to current levels — lower highs
Technical Shift in 10-Year Treasuries
The recent price action in 10-Year T-Note futures is signaling a potential regime shift. After a prolonged period of consolidation, we are seeing a significant confluence of bearish indicators:
Structural Breakdown: The rejection at the 114'000 resistance level has formed a textbook distribution to
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A representation of what an asset is worth today and what the market thinks it will be worth in the future.
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.
Frequently asked questions
The nearest expiration date for 10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2019) is Mar 20, 2019.
Traders prefer to sell futures contracts when they've already made money on the investment, but still have plenty of time left before the expiration date. Thus, many consider it a good option to sell 10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2019) before Mar 20, 2019.









