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Discover detailed market analysis from traders. See how others approach this instrument, compare different strategies, and discover perspectives that can shape your own view.

Win Rate, Risk-Reward, and Expectancy: A Practical Guide You’ve probably come across traders highlighting their win rate as proof of consistency and skill. On the surface, it does feel like a reliable measure: more winning trades should mean better performance, right? Not always. Here’s where things become more insightful: win rate on its own doesn’t capture the full picture. Some traders maintain high win rates yet struggle to grow their accounts, while others with a lower win rate manage to build steady, compounding gains over time. Once you

TARGET IDEAS This is a good target off the first presented gap from September. Have a good Friday. When it hits and reverses right there throw me some likes.

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by michaelheadrealtor

mes 10/1 OCT. 1ST Evening Market Opening technical analysis simple for MES

SITCo Potential Ideas - 10/01/2026 MES Thursday Setup Map | Conditional Locations Wednesday failed near 7,785, tested 7,707.50, then recovered into a 7,739–7,749 balance. RSP, banks, and breadth remain weak. These are areas to watch for a setup—not automatic entries. 🔴 7,749–7,762 failed reclaim: Probe resistance → reject → leave the level → return → fail. Watch 7,739, then 7,729/7,719. 🔴 Below 7,729 / 7,719: Require acceptance below and a failed retest from underneath. 7,707.50 is the next support test. No chasing the first d

Markets selling off again, here's what's likely next:Markets selling off again, here's what's likely next:👇 SPCFD:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ IG:NASDAQ $Trading

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by Swing_Trader_Saan

Combining Weak Edges Under Risk and Turnover Constraints Part 4 of 5: The Signal Book Five indicators can sit on a SPY chart forever and cost you nothing. Parts 1 to 3 treated them that way. A mean-reversion score has a small but real link with the next five-day return, an information coefficient of about 0.076: on days when the score is more bullish than usual, the next five days tend to be a bit more bullish than usual, which is not yet a trading rule. Four of five such scores are largely one idea wearing different costumes, so counting five indi

Equity Strength Still in-Place, ES Support Bounce Equities took a nasty turn on Wednesday as oil prices jumped and Treasury yields spiked, but as has become somewhat customary buyers pounced on the pullback and, remarkably, the weekly bar is green as we go into the final hours of trade on Friday. It was the 's3' spot of support looked at earlier this week that ultimately held the lows, leading to a volley back above the 7800 level in S&P 500 futures, and as we go into next week and the end of Q3, bulls have an open door to make a run at the A

MESZ Sep 30: 7767 Breakout or 7720 Breakdown After the News?MESZ is trading around 7,755 following a sharp reaction to the morning news. The short-term structure remains volatile, so I’m focused on confirmation around a few key levels. On the upside, 7,756 is the first short-term level showing buyer strength. The more important breakout level is 7,767. A confirmed 1-hour or 4-hour close above that area could support continuation toward 7,786. On the downside, 7,720 is the first important intraday support. A confirmed 1-hour close below 7,720 could increa

MESZ Oct 1: 7767 Breakout or 7705 Breakdown?MESZ swept overnight liquidity around 7,705 and is now trading back near the middle of the current range. For the upside, 7,767 is the main confirmation level. A confirmed 1-hour or 4-hour close above 7,767 could support continuation toward 7,786, followed by the higher liquidity area around 7,814–7,840. On the downside, 7,705 remains the key support and bearish confirmation level. A confirmed break below 7,705 could open the path toward approximately 7,675. Key levels - 7,767 — bullish confirma

S&P 500 (ES) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Thu (Oct 1)Bias: The December S&P 500 contract settled Wednesday at 7,715.50, down 16.50 points or 0.21 percent, after trading between 7,782.00 and 7,705.50, a 76.50 point daily range. It was an outside session, with a higher high and a lower low than Tuesday, and the settle finished 13.1 percent of the way up from the low. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, and they match the chart's daily bar. It was the lowest settle since 09/18 and the third consecutive

ES – pwVAH + Untested Daily VAH Long Zone For today’s ES futures setup, our main level of interest is a potential long zone around 7712–7718. The area has a nice cluster of confluence: pwVAH: 7718 Untested Daily VAH: 7712 With both levels sitting close together, this gives us a clear zone to monitor should price continue lower. As always, we’re not looking to blindly enter the level. If ES trades into the 7712–7718 area, we’ll watch closely for a strong reaction and favourable lower-timeframe structure. Should that develop, we

by Chart_Champions

S&P 500 (ES) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Fri (Sep 25)Bias: December S&P 500 futures settled Thursday at 7,767.00, down 5.50 points or 0.07 percent, the third consecutive lower settle. The completed session ran 7,783.50 to 7,707.25, a 76.25 point band, and the settle finished at 78.4 percent of that range, so a bar that made a lower high and a lower low against Wednesday closed in its top quarter. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they reconcile with the pro

𝗘𝗦𝟭! 𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 | 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮 𝗘𝗦𝟭! 𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 | 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦&𝗣 𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴? As briefly analysed yesterday, the S&P 500 first took the lower 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 and is currently moving higher. From the latest Swing Low to the High, we have an 𝗠𝟭𝟱 𝗙𝗩𝗚 between the 𝟬.𝟱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟬.𝟲𝟮 𝗙𝗶𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗶 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀. This area also aligns with an 𝗛𝟭 𝗢𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿. The current upside target is the 𝗯𝘂𝘆-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝟰 𝗙𝗩𝗚. Now the key question is

Market Impacts of the 2026 US Mid-term Elections Trade ideas on CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures and Options ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) Four years ago, I raised a question on TradingView: How would the outcomes of US midterm elections impact the financial markets? In November 2022, US voters flipped the House to a Republican majority. This curtailed the Biden administration agenda and paved the way for Donald Trump’s return in 2024. Looking back over the past four years, the US stock market (S&P 500), precious metal (gold), industrial metal (c

by JimHuangChicago

Drawing Fibonacci Retracements (Beginner Friendly)Most traders draw a Fibonacci retracement on a chart without thinking about where they're anchoring it — and that's why their levels don't work. In this video let's dive into how to draw fibs: high to low for resistance zones, low to high for support zones, and the different anchor points used. Disclaimer: Paid partnership with NinjaTrader. The creator receives compensation for this content. Views are their own, individual results may vary, and this is for educational purposes only — not inves

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ES – Potential Long from pmVAH Confluence Zone For today’s ES setup, our first area of interest for a potential long scalp comes in around 7797–7800. This zone has several pieces of confluence coming together: pmVAH around 7797 SP just above at approximately 7800 Uptrend aVWAP also moving through the same area With all three lining up, this is the first zone we’ll be watching should price continue lower. If ES trades into the area and gives us a clean reaction and confirmation, we’ll look to trade the long based on that reaction r

by Chart_Champions

MESZ Sep 24: Can 7700 Hold for a Move Back Toward 7800?MESZ sold off overnight and is now trading around 7,729, after testing the higher-time-frame fair value gap near 7,714. My short-term bias remains bullish, but I’m watching for another possible pullback into the 7,700 area before continuation. That level lines up with an untested 1-hour fair value gap and could become an important reaction zone. If buyers defend 7,700 with confirmation, the main upside target is the higher fair value gap around 7,800. The key invalidation level is 7,675. A confi

Potential Ideas - 09/24/2026 Thursday mental model BEAR CASE 7759 breaks → failed reclaim → continuation. Or bounce → 7785 / 7818 rejection → short BRC. BULL CASE 7759–69 rejects lower prices → reclaim/hold → 7785. 7785 accepted → 7818. 7818 accepted → 7828 / 7834. CHOP CASE MES rotates 7769–7785 without acceptance. Do nothing. Confirmation board Bearish reinforcement: DXY stays above breakout + yields stay elevated + VX/VIX firm + MNQ/semis weak + breadth remains deeply negative. Bullish repair: Yields/dollar retrace

ES Pullback -> Support Test A jolt of fear showed across markets today as a weak bond auction drove Treasury yields to fresh highs. And just a day after the S&P 500 set a fresh ATH, the index was on its back foot. But - a spot of support looked at in yesterday's post has come into play at 7766.50 and, so far, that's leading to a bounce in the final two hours of the US session. This is a highlight of what was discussed in that post - and the danger of chasing breakouts and the possible power of patience and waiting for

ES Long Setup – pdVAL / pdEQ / uptrend aVWAP Confluence Today’s level of interest on ES Futures is a potential long zone around 7786–7781 What makes this area interesting is the confluence we have within the zone: pdVAL around 7786, which remains untested pdEQ around 7781 Uptrend aVWAP sitting just below the area, adding another layer of support Rather than treating this as one exact price, we’ll be watching the entire zone for a potential reaction. As always, we’ll set our alerts and let price come to us. If ES trades into the area and gi

by Chart_Champions

Potential Ideas - 09/22/2026 Potential Ideas - 09/22/2026 BRC Long 7,787.50 Pullback → hold → failed breakdown → continuation Preferred continuation SR Short 7,855.75–7,867.75 Test → reject → retest → failed reclaim Best short location AHC Long Above 7,856–7,868 Break → accept → retest holds → continuation Do not fight acceptance BRC Short Below 7,787.50 Break → retest from below → failed reclaim Failed-breakout scenario SR Long 7,769 → 7,759 Flush → rejection → retest → failed breakdown Secondary setup Tomorrow's map: 7,8

ES Test of S3 Support into EOW It feels like there's a lot hanging in the balance here as we move towards the end of Q3. High yields, high oil prices and a recent hawkish shift at the Fed yet, through it all, equities have been pretty resilient. We saw a shot of weakness show up yesterday after S&P 500 futures had stalled at ATHs but, so far, the 's3' support looked at on Tuesday has led to a vigorous intra-day bounce. The 's2' support, which helped to set the low into the close of yesterday's sessions, is now resistance at 7

Top-Down Analysis — Same Price, Different Resolution A daily chart and a five-minute chart are not showing two different markets. They are showing the same market at two different resolutions — and mistaking a change in detail for a change in price is one of the most expensive habits in trading. The Satellite Photograph Picture a photograph taken from a satellite. From that altitude, continents and coastlines are visible — the large-scale shape of the terrain. Move the camera closer and individual cities appear. Closer still, streets and build

by pavlusrockulus