Win Rate, Risk-Reward, and Expectancy: A Practical GuideYou’ve probably come across traders highlighting their win rate as proof of consistency and skill.
On the surface, it does feel like a reliable measure: more winning trades should mean better performance, right?
Not always.
Here’s where things become more insightful: win rate on its own doesn’t
Compare with Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2025)
MES Oct. 2nd Analysis PreMarket New York Session Mark up MES check chart for setup ideas. MES has 2 gaps above that it could potentially go and test or fill. Currently the strength seems to be slowing. My current basis is more leaning to shorts. I will only look for longs to scalp inside the gap fills. Beside that I will keep my eye on Price breaking
Equity Strength Still in-Place, ES Support BounceEquities took a nasty turn on Wednesday as oil prices jumped and Treasury yields spiked, but as has become somewhat customary buyers pounced on the pullback and, remarkably, the weekly bar is green as we go into the final hours of trade on Friday.
It was the 's3' spot of support looked at earlier
ES Futures – Previous Day VAL + Anchored VWAP Long ZoneToday’s level of interest on ES Futures is a potential long zone around 7756–7752.
The main confluence here is the pdVAL, which remains untested, alongside the current uptrend aVWAP coming into the same area.
What makes the setup more interesting is the liquidity currently building beneath today’s
SITCo Potential Ideas - 10/01/2026MES Thursday Setup Map | Conditional Locations
Wednesday failed near 7,785, tested 7,707.50, then recovered into a 7,739–7,749 balance. RSP, banks, and breadth remain weak. These are areas to watch for a setup—not automatic entries.
🔴 7,749–7,762 failed reclaim: Probe resistance → reject → leave t
MES Oct 2. 15min. Analysis MES 15min. Chart Technicals. I previously posted the 4HR chart also for viewing with more thoughts along the trade setup
Current candle looks like it may want to give us confirmation but is still open so wait patiently for close. If it not ready yet wait ,enter on confirmation break and close of ca
MESZ Sep 30: 7767 Breakout or 7720 Breakdown After the News?MESZ is trading around 7,755 following a sharp reaction to the morning news.
The short-term structure remains volatile, so I’m focused on confirmation around a few key levels.
On the upside, 7,756 is the first short-term level showing buyer strength.
The more important breakout level is 7,767. A con
MESZ Oct 5: 7759 Pullback Before a Break Above 7815?MESZ starts the week after recovering from last week’s liquidity sweep around 7,710.
The main higher-time-frame breakout level I’m watching is 7,815.
A confirmed 4-hour close above 7,815 would strengthen the bullish structure and could support continuation toward approximately 7,848.
For today, the
See all ideas
A representation of what an asset is worth today and what the market thinks it will be worth in the future.
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.
Frequently asked questions
The nearest expiration date for Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2025) is Mar 21, 2025.
Traders prefer to sell futures contracts when they've already made money on the investment, but still have plenty of time left before the expiration date. Thus, many consider it a good option to sell Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2025) before Mar 21, 2025.









