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USOIL at 90$ last pump to 98-103$ before going lower. TVC:USOIL To me it's trading inside a daily bear flag, we are near the support of the bear flag, we bounce right off the 50ema day at 89$ today 22 september 2026. Daily there's 2 gap's from 98-100$, then on the 12hr a fair value gap at 103$ish. So that'S why I'm bullish and see it go up to 98-103$ before a possible move down. If breaks the white line and near resistance red trend line at 105$ and stay above for like 2-4 day's it should continue much higher. If not should go back down, note that the 200ema day is 85$ so it's risky to short, and it's inside a bull market, so momentum to the upside. So what form now - next weeks, pump to 98-103$, as long reject and stay under 105$, should come back to 95$, reject the bear flag support drop under it, possible retest off that support fail and next target is 85$ and lower. A very good long to me is 75$ why? It's the big green trend line support from 2026 January. So if it fails and stays under 85$ the 200ema day, it should go to 75$ where I would look for long's, which could mean if usoil go up, would be bad for the stock market..

CRUDE OIL 1000-DAY AVERAGE Why should we look at a 1000-day average? Because people are talking about inflation from crude oil prices and that it is a terrible thing that is destroying consumer confidence, destroying consumer purchasing power and it is in the headlines continuously. So let's look at it and see what it shows. Objectively the average price at the end of a President's term is the "average price that people experienced during that term". So in January 2021, the 4-year average (approximate 250 trading days a year, usually 255 times 4 years = 1000 days) price for a barrel of oil was $53.34. When Biden's term ended in January 2025 the 1000-day average was $78.67 for an increase of $25.33 over the 4-year term. We can compare this number to the average in January 2029 and see what the difference is. So far, the average price over the last 400 days is $70.88, which is down from the average of $78.67 over the previous 4-year presidential term. The price ABOVE average now, of course, so that average will keep rising. But it is rising for a different reason this time. Sorry for this over simplistic view of the situation but it is 'election season' and the mudslinging continues with every candidate willing to say whatever it takes to get elected. Enjoy! Tim West 9/18/2026 1:17PM MST Denver Time

USOIL is setting a Trap?USOIL has staged an impressive recovery from the $68–72 weekly demand zone, reaching approximately $101.70. However, despite the bullish momentum, I am not interested in buying at current prices. The market is now trading directly below a major resistance cluster: • Weekly descending trendline • Previous swing highs • Supply between $104 and $106 This is an area where I expect increased volatility and a possible liquidity grab before the market reveals its next directional move. 📈 COT positioning The latest available COT report shows Non-Commercial traders holding: • 350,118 long contracts • 213,539 short contracts • Net position: +136,579 contracts During the week, speculative traders added 17,670 longs and 11,002 shorts, improving their net-long exposure by approximately 6,668 contracts. Open Interest also increased by 18,826 contracts, indicating that new capital is entering the market. I consider this moderately bullish, but not an extreme signal: both long and short positions increased, meaning positioning is expanding on both sides. 📅 Seasonality warning Seasonality is the main factor preventing me from becoming aggressively bullish. September has historically been negative over the longer 10-, 15- and 20-year periods, despite positive performance over the most recent 2–5 years. More importantly, November shows a negative average return across every period analysed. This suggests that the current rally could still be followed by a significant corrective phase. My conclusion The broader structure remains bullish, but USOIL is approaching resistance with an unattractive risk-to-reward profile for new long positions. I am not chasing the rally. My ideal setup would be a liquidity sweep around $104–106, followed by a controlled retracement into $94–96 and a confirmed bullish reaction targeting $112–116. If the market closes decisively below $94, I will abandon the immediate bullish scenario and look toward $80, followed by the weekly demand at $72–74.

by EdgeTradingJourney

CL1! – The Bigger Opportunity May Be Lower WTI is still trading within a broader rising structure, but at current prices I am not interested in chasing the market higher. After the strong advance toward 105, oil is going through a deeper correction, and the area I am watching for the next meaningful buying opportunity is around 83. That level matters because it sits much closer to the rising trendline that has supported the broader move since the first half of the year. A decline toward 83 would therefore not automatically change my long-term bullish view. Instead, I would watch closely to see whether lower prices begin attracting demand and allow the market to establish another major higher low. The fundamental picture also gives me a reason to remain patient. Middle East supply has yet to fully normalize, global inventories have been drawn down, and geopolitical disruptions can still keep a supply premium embedded in oil prices . At the same time, expectations for improving supply conditions into 2027 mean I would rather buy at a meaningful discount than build exposure after an extended rally. My preferred scenario is therefore a deeper correction toward 83 before looking for renewed bullish participation. If buyers successfully defend that area and the daily structure begins turning higher again, 105 becomes the first major level I would expect the market to revisit. A sustained break above that high could then reopen the path toward the 120 area. For me, 83 is the level that makes the risk/reward interesting again. I am not trying to predict that WTI must reach it, but if the market offers that deeper discount while the long-term structure remains intact, that is where I would become much more interested in the bullish side.

by Paradise_Noir

Crude Oil Buy Analysis Crude Oil MTF Long Idea Technicals: Price inside daily demand + 30minute confirmation. Fundamentals/Sentiment: - COT reports leaning bullish - Recently weaker fundamentals with the Middle East pipeline back up and running, good talks with the US-Iran, possible talks with Ukraine-Russia, but claims of Trump's fake news about a diesel export ban + also might have a trade deal with China-US. Overall: - Yes, its long, but too expensive for me. Maybe looking at the bottom 50% entry of the zone in order to cut the risk down, but would also like to wait to see what happens with the China-US talks. Have not taken any trade on Crude Oil in over 9 months so will most likely sit this one out.

by MoneyballAustin

Oil has completed its first leg down....Whoever paid attention to my earlier idea, has made a ton of good profit.... Next leg is up, and then we will slowly start our decent towards $67 Will sure as hell take time, market mechanics are not ever allowing for clean moves, but it is what it is.

Thats an idea the rally is loosing steam. lets see how this one turns out

Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Fri (Sep 25)Bias: The November crude contract settled Thursday at 94.61, up 2.45 points or 2.66 percent, the second consecutive higher settle after five lower closes that followed the 09/15 settle of 100.75. The completed session ran 96.78 to 91.23, a 5.55 point band, and the settle finished at 60.9 percent of that range. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they reconcile with the provider's own published daily record. Against Wednesday the bar made a higher high and a higher low, so Wednesday's inside-day pause resolved upward, and the 5.55 point range was 1.25 times the 14-day average daily range of 4.43 points. The supply-risk narrative carried the session. Press commentary after the settle attributed the early strength to an Iranian military warning and to Saudi reports of missile fire from Yemen toward Yanbu and Taif, and attributed the retreat from the best levels to a report that the United States and Iran were exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent's November contract settled at 106.60, up 3.41 percent, and the Brent to WTI spread widened to 11.99 from 10.92. Those headlines and the price move coincided; no time-stamped intraday series was captured, so no causal ordering is claimed. The product contracts settled lower on the day while crude rose, so refining margins narrowed. Cross-asset transmission continued at a smaller scale than on Wednesday: the ten-year yield index closed at 5.16 percent, the dollar index rose 0.19 percent to 101.29, gold slipped and both equity indices finished flat. The composite multi-indicator read rose to 64 percent buy from 40 percent, the nine-day directional reading now shows positive direction at 24.43 above negative direction at 17.22, and the settle sits 1.46 points above the 5-day settlement average at 93.15 and 2.80 points above the 20-day at 91.81. Bias is constructive into Friday while the 93.81 to 94.21 zone holds, with the phased-deal report the unpriced risk and a weekend of headline exposure following Friday's settle. Resistance: - 99.76 Pivot R2, the practical top of a single session - 98.41 three standard deviations resistance, 13 cents beneath the stochastic 80 percent threshold at 98.54 - 97.71 two standard deviations resistance, the shelf a second leg higher would have to clear - 97.18 Pivot R1, capping a five-reference zone from 96.78 that includes the 9-day average stall at 97.14 - 96.96 stochastic 70 percent threshold, inside the densest overhead zone on the grid - 96.80 one standard deviation resistance, two cents above Thursday's session high at 96.78 - 95.15 9-day average crossing price, the only average-based line overhead - 94.81 published target price for the coming session, 20 cents above the settle Support: - 94.21 Pivot Point, 40 cents beneath the settle and six cents beneath the reopened session's early low at 94.27 - 93.81 stochastic 50 percent threshold, three cents beneath the moving-average convergence stall at 93.84 - 93.06 Wednesday's high, now beneath the market, with the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high at 92.85 - 92.42 one standard deviation support, the level the setup stop sits beneath - 91.81 20-day settlement average, inside a 47 cent group with Pivot S1 at 91.63 and two deviations support at 91.51 - 91.23 Thursday's session low, the higher low that a settle beneath would erase - 90.81 three standard deviations support - 88.66 Pivot S2, beside the old 88.67 to 88.71 shelf defended on Tuesday and Wednesday Primary Setup: LONG the November contract from the 93.80 to 94.20 band around the standard daily pivot at 94.21 and the stochastic midpoint at 93.81, stop 92.30 beneath one standard deviation support at 92.42 and the 92.85 retracement. Targets at 95.70 first, above the 95.15 9-day crossing and beneath the 96.78 to 97.18 zone, 97.40 second above Pivot R1 at 97.18 and beneath two standard deviations resistance at 97.71, and 99.10 third above three standard deviations resistance at 98.41 and beneath Pivot R2 at 99.76. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint. The 14-day average true range is 4.00 points against a 1.70 point stop distance, so the stop sits well inside a single average day. The durable goods report at 08:30 AM ET Friday is the first scheduled input for the dollar and yield channel, and the Strait negotiation is the likeliest headline source. A settle beneath 91.23 negates the thesis; two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 93.06 with 92.85 also lost remove the edge before the stop is reached. Friday's settle is the last before a weekend in which the Strait talks can move without a market open, so a reduced size is appropriate. Thursday broke the two-session envelope on the upside only, and the directional readings turned with it. The product side did not confirm and the de-escalation report remains live, and in this review's interpretation that keeps Friday a test of whether the recovery can hold above the pivot into the weekend rather than a clean continuation.

Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics? Oil Long? 200$!!This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.

by VORSwingTrading

Oil is on the rise today Sep 24 It is a pullback before we continue our descent. I estimate we will reach $100 before we will reverse and drop. If you read my previous posts, you will see we are exactly following my proposed projection....

Can Oil Futures Reshape Global Power?Macroeconomics and Economic Trends Oil futures dictate global economic health today. United States crude inventories surged by three million barrels in the week ending September 18. The build exceeded the smaller gain the American Petroleum Institute had reported a day earlier. Elevated oil prices weigh heavily on global stock markets. India currently faces a massive surge in crude import costs. Its crude import bill rose 48 percent to $74.8 billion between April and August. Import volumes stayed flat, so higher prices drove the entire increase. Surging costs pressure emerging markets significantly. Macroeconomic models must adapt to these rapid inventory shifts. Traders watch these benchmarks to evaluate consumer fuel demand. U.S. diesel futures also fell about 5 percent on reports of a possible 90-day export ban. Geopolitics and Strategic Alliances Geopolitical conflicts directly alter crude oil valuations. Recent United States and Iran diplomatic talks shifted market momentum. Asian crude oil imports hit post-conflict highs this September. However, they remain about 13 percent below pre-war levels. Nations secure strategic energy reserves to gain geostrategy advantages. Smaller nations also enter the global energy matrix dynamically. Benin plans to sell its first cargo of Sèmè crude in nearly three decades this October. The 250,000-barrel shipment marks a symbolic return to global oil markets. This diversification alters traditional global supply chains permanently. Superpowers use oil futures to secure geopolitical leverage worldwide. Energy independence remains a paramount national security objective. Technology, Science, and High-Tech Data High-tech trading platforms process futures contracts in milliseconds. Quantitative funds deploy machine learning algorithms for price predictions. Advanced science constantly improves deepwater crude extraction efficiency. Satellites track global shipping routes to estimate supply volumes. Refiners install high-tech sensors to optimize daily crude output. Artificial intelligence models analyze government petroleum status reports instantly. Energy producers leverage predictive analytics to adjust production schedules. Technological superiority dictates success in modern commodity markets. Management, Culture, and Business Models Corporate culture within the energy sector demands extreme agility. Management teams actively revise business models to hedge risks. Executive leaders prioritize flexible contracts over fixed supply chains. Constant innovation drives new and efficient crude extraction techniques. Major energy firms create joint ventures to share capital burdens. A proactive culture helps companies navigate sudden market volatility. Strong leadership ensures profitability during unexpected crude inventory builds. Modern oil businesses prioritize data-driven decision frameworks over intuition. Cybersecurity and Patent Protection Malicious actors target critical energy infrastructure and trading platforms. Energy companies deploy robust cybersecurity protocols to protect grids. Financial exchanges utilize advanced encryption to secure futures contracts. Patent analysis reveals rapid growth in pipeline security technologies. Proprietary algorithms execute massive volume futures trades daily. Trading firms guard these intellectual property assets aggressively. Securing financial and physical energy infrastructure is absolutely critical. Cybersecurity failures can instantly destabilize global commodity markets. Pharmaceutical Supply Chains and Petrochemicals Petrochemicals remain fundamentally essential for global pharmaceutical manufacturing. Oil derivatives create the plastics necessary for medical packaging. Crude oil futures volatility directly impacts drug production costs. Pharmaceutical companies actively hedge crude prices to protect profit margins. Logistics networks require affordable fuel to distribute vital medicines. High energy costs threaten fragile global medical supply chains. Stable oil markets ensure reliable and affordable healthcare delivery. The entire healthcare sector depends heavily on stable energy commodities.

by the5erstrading

am I a dreamer?This is the falling knife.. look out for the dead cat bounce and lets not get trapped. Low 90s coming soon

that a bullish lookout Looks like the spring might be ready to bounce If this pans out, it might break the top. At least expecting 61.8%. keep stops tight

CL Daily_about -2,945 ticks away from Fibonacci Target CL Daily time frame is in a down trend. The market is making lower lows and lower highs. There is a down Fibonacci with an extension price point 63.18 about -2,945 ticks below the market. As long as the market does not take out the one boundary price point 110.93 it is expected the market to fall towards the Fibonacci target. Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the sell zone. STOP: 113.05 LIMIT: 63.18 Another entry idea: If the risk is too large off the daily time frame. It will be a good idea to turn to the smaller time frames and look for selling ideas with less risk.

by JoshuaMartinez

WTI Crude Ponders Potential Bounce On Tuesday 15 September, I warned that without a fresh catalyst, I was suspicious of crude oil breakouts. While WTI closed the day higher by the day’s close and at a 4-month high, it was short lived. And only marginally above the 105.21 high. And since then, we have clearly seen the bearish mean-reversion I sought. But now I suspect the pullback has gone too far. Note the tweezer bottom on the daily chart around the 50-day EMA, and with both of those candles with above-average volume – it suggests bulls may be accumulating. And with prices now back above the September VPOC, dips may be favourable while prices remain above 88.67 swing low. I have a conservative upside target around 96 for now – near the monthly VWAP. But if tensions in the Middle East return, then so does oil’s upside potential. MS

by StoneX Trading

Crude on its final leg up before massive drop. It's ready to rock and roll. Let's see how this turns out in the next 15 days

Thats an idea Big drop to pump up the new leg up Lets see how this turns out in next few weeks

Get ready to pay higher prices at the pump New 5-3 wave started on crude Watch out from the traps on sell! sell off is complete

My top down analysis on Crude Oil My HTF is the 15m I made sure my 5m trend matched my 15m Found a nice DZ on 15m, refine on the 5m and made cheaper on the 1m

04:12

Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Wed (Sep 23)Bias: The November crude contract settled Tuesday at 90.52, down 1.85 points or 2.00 percent, and the five-session decline from the 09/15 settle of 100.75 now totals 10.23 points or 10.15 percent. Tuesday's completed session ran 93.84 to 88.67, a 5.17 point band, and the settle finished at 35.8 percent of that range. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder rather than an independently read bar, and they reconcile with the provider's own published daily record and with its five-day period low of 88.67 dated 09/22/26. The driver was diplomatic. A news-agency report stamped 04:39 AM ET said Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, and afternoon remarks from the United Nations rostrum between 03:32 PM and 03:41 PM ET spoke of momentum toward a deal and of facilitating renewed flow through the Strait. Those headlines and the price decline coincided; no time-stamped intraday series was captured, so no causal ordering is claimed. The dollar index closed at 100.601, up 0.17 percent and at a seven-week high by press accounts, which added a second headwind, while Brent's November contract settled at 99.25 after trading down to 97.36. Equities took the other side of it, with the Nasdaq-100 cash index closing at a record 30,732.40 and the volatility index down 4.44 percent to 14.21. The structural picture is a market both extended and still falling. The composite multi-indicator read has collapsed to 16 percent buy with the weakest direction grade published, against 100 percent buy one week ago, and the nine-day directional system now carries negative direction at 22.72 above positive direction at 19.61. Against that, the nine-day raw stochastic reads 14.21 percent, the settle sits four cents beneath the 20-day average at 90.56, and the contract still holds 6.75 points above its 50-day average at 83.77. Bias is lower into Wednesday while 91.01 caps, with the caveat that positioning was net long 106,279 managed-money contracts as of September 15 and has not been refreshed through the decline. The decisive catalyst window is the weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM ET. Resistance: - 96.18 Pivot R2, the practical ceiling for a single session and the top of the recovery band - 95.93 three standard deviations resistance, sitting one cent under the 9-day average crossing price at 95.94, a genuine confluence rather than a rounding artefact - 94.94 two standard deviations resistance, the shelf a relief rally would have to clear to matter - 94.74 5-day moving average, the level Tuesday's high failed beneath without ever testing - 93.84 completed session high, the number that defines Tuesday's failure point - 93.65 one standard deviation resistance, immediately beneath the session high and reinforcing it - 93.35 Pivot R1, the first computed ceiling and the natural place for a failed bounce to fail - 91.01 Pivot Point, the level separating a constructive Wednesday from a continuation one - 90.56 20-day moving average, four cents above the settle and the most consequential single line on the daily frame Support: - 90.12 50 percent retracement of the four-week range, the nearest grid line of any kind beneath the settle - 89.07 stochastic 20 percent threshold, a momentum marker rather than a structural one - 88.68 published target price for the coming session, effectively coincident with the session low - 88.67 completed session low, also the five-day period low dated 09/22/26 - 88.47 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high, reinforcing the group twenty cents above it - 88.18 Pivot S1, closing the most densely confirmed support grouping in the instrument - 87.39 one standard deviation support, one cent from the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 87.38 - 86.10 two standard deviations support, where the structure thins materially - 85.84 Pivot S2, the extended objective for a confirmed inventory build - 85.11 three standard deviations support, alongside the 40-day average crossing price at 85.17 Primary Setup: SHORT the November contract from the 91.00 to 91.60 band on a retracement toward the standard daily pivot at 91.01, stop 93.90 above the completed session high at 93.84 and above the one standard deviation resistance at 93.65. Targets at 88.70 first, where the session low at 88.67 and the published target price at 88.68 are effectively the same number, 87.40 second at one standard deviation support, and 85.85 third at the second standard pivot support, reachable only if the official inventory figure confirms the industry-body estimate of a 1.786 million barrel build against a consensus draw of 0.69 million. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:1.5 to the second and 1:2.1 to the third from the entry midpoint. Half size is appropriate given a 14-day average true range of 3.85 points and a realised Tuesday range of 5.17 points. Pricing is likely to be disorderly immediately around the 10:30 AM ET petroleum status report, and the 09:45 AM ET flash purchasing-manager surveys precede it by 45 minutes, so the morning carries two scheduled shocks rather than one, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. A settle above 93.84 negates the thesis outright; an acceptance above the 20-day average at 90.56 together with a reclaim of 91.01 removes the edge before the stop is reached. The session that set up Wednesday was not a fundamental repricing but a removal of risk premium, and risk premium that leaves on a report can return on one. The barrel now sits on the only medium-horizon average it has touched all month, with a record crack spread underneath it and a firmer dollar above it, and the 10:30 AM ET figure decides which of those two wins.

CL Daily_+3,481 Ticks to target CL Daily time frame is in a down trend. The market is making lower lows and lower highs. There is a down Fibonacci with an extension price point 63.18 about -3,481 ticks below the market. As long as the market does not take out the one boundary price point 110.93 it is expected the market to fall towards the Fibonacci target. Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the sell zone. STOP: 113.05 LIMIT: 63.18 Another entry idea: If the risk is too large off the daily time frame. It will be a good idea to turn to the smaller time frames and look for selling ideas with less risk.

by JoshuaMartinez

Oil is about to reverse - Target $67 and bellow!As much as as it feels as if we are in a uptrend, longert TF charts show that we are actually in a down trend, however not with out confusing spikes... Reversal can happen any time now.

crudeoil breakout! will hit 10400-800 ya 9200?The structure is now clearly bullish, but RSI near 76 indicates short-term overbought conditions, so chasing the price at the current level can carry higher pullback risk Key Technical Structure Current Price: 9974 Immediate Resistance: 10050 Next Resistance: 10400 Major Resistance: 10800 Buy above 10,050 on sustained price action sl: 9910 Target 1: 10200 Target 2: 10400--10800 bearish / rejection--- Avoid aggressive shorts while price remains above 9,840. A bearish setup becomes stronger only if crude gives a daily close below 9,840. Possible downside levels: 9,560- 9400 -9200+++ A rejection around 10,400 combined with bearish price action could produce a short-term correction, especially because RSI is already in the overbought zone. over all summary -- The breakout is technically strong, but RSI ~76 means the market is stretched in the short term. Therefore, the higher-probability approach is to wait for either a confirmed breakout above 10,050 or a controlled pullback toward 9840, rather than chasing the current price

by kailashcfa33