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USD Bulls Case Builds - Though NFP Decides Its Fate With Fed fund futures implying a 54% chance of a September hike, today's NFP report could decide which side of 50% those odds shift by the weekly close. The US dollar has been battered but showing signs of promise around support - so I take a closer look at the dollar index, NFP data and a high-level view of FX majors. MS

06:16

DXY — same date, same reversal, two years running The Dollar Index has done something specific on the same date, twice running. July 1, 2024 — reversal. July 1, 2025 — reversal. The vertical lines on this chart mark both of those turns. Two data points is a coincidence. But the setup around this year's July 1 is worth noting anyway. The calendar is loaded. Independence Day sits immediately after, compressing trading. NFP and the broader employment picture follow on the other side of the holiday. That's the kind of schedule where positioning tends to shift before the data, not after. Non-commercial net on the dollar recently flipped back into the green — you can see it on the histogram below. Speculators leaned back in. Over in the yen, the picture is different. JPY speculative longs have stacked up near multi-year extremes. Crowded trades don't stay crowded. If something — a policy signal, an intervention hint, a surprise print — starts the unwind, USD/JPY can reprice quickly. And when USD/JPY moves fast, it doesn't stay quiet elsewhere in FX. I'm not calling a direction. The pattern is two events, not a law. But watching whether DXY holds the 101 area into next week, and whether JPY positioning starts to lighten — those two threads together say more than either one alone. Not financial advice — just how I'm reading it. Manage your risk.

$DXY Year long range finally pressing the top Box runs $95.79 to $100.36. Price has broken out the top and is now testing the May 2025 ceiling at $101.57. One level decides this and it's the resistance at $101.57. Daily close above $101.57 on volume opens the measured move. Range height projects a target near $104.94. No close above, and this is just a poke into supply. Fade back below $100.36 puts price back in the box and kills the breakout. Watching this closely. A confirmed dollar breakout is a headwind for the debasement trade. Not what AMEX:GLD , AMEX:SLV or CRYPTOCAP:BTC want to see here. I'm long TVC:DXY above $101.57. Setup Invalidates below $100.36.

AUD/USD Holds 70c For Now, Key Data Awaits AUD/USD is called "the battler" with good reason, and it showed resilience last week despite a hawkish Fed meeting, stronger US dollar and less-hawkish than expected RBA. Perhaps it can perform a bounce from 70c this week? But whether it does or how high it can, sits in the hands of AU CPI, employment and household spending alongside US PCE inflation. MS

05:34

Fifth wave in progress Wave five started based on my count Target is 115-116.000

Not much has changed on DXY USD DOLLAR Is the Dollar ready to break and close outside the range its been stuck in for a few weeks. The weekly and monthly charts both in a tight consolidation. Let's see how the weekly candle closes and see if we can find a setup for next week.

US DOLLAR INDEX GAP FILLED WAR TRADE IS BACK!Bullish- seems like everytime Oil bounces the US Dollar becomes a safe haven for the war. Therefore because Oil still holding support levels and making new highs I am bullish the dollar. But even if Oil falls that is also bullish the dollar because lower export demand and commodities and dollar have inverse relationship. As I mentioned in last post gaps normally get filled and look what just happened! So therefore the war trade continues for now and the War Trade in my opinion is Buy Oil, Buy Commodities, Buy US Dollar, Short Bonds, Bearish Stocks short term. Bearish- Nope not right now another reason is because too many inflation fears right now. Also the FED is not talking right now about cutting interest rates. But if bond market were to get rush in buying we could see dollar top quick so always expect the unexpected when trading. Always keep a bullish and bearish bias because sometimes things can change quick in this business. At first I thought the gap not being filled was bearish market rallied to fill gap but the war trade is too strong right now to get bearish. Commitment of Traders- The Non Commericals (Large Specs) are nuetral so nothing much going on right now. But the small specs retail traders are slightly long by 2,174 contracts but they are also notorious for getting things wrong. Think of this report as going against the grain meaning if you see The Large Specs really overcrowded in one direction long or short you want to place the opposite trade. Example if everyone is Long US dollar you want to look for a short trade signal because when they unwind the move will be big! If everyone if Short the US Dollar you want to look for long trade opportunity because when they unwind it will explode to the upside! Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading Clifford RISK DISCLOSURE TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.

by The25YearTrader

DXY Is Trapped Below Major Resistance The US Dollar Index is currently sitting at one of the most important decision zones of the entire year. After reacting aggressively from the weekly demand area between 94.50 and 97.20, price managed to recover short-term momentum, but structurally the market still looks vulnerable. From a technical perspective, DXY continues to respect the descending trendline coming from the April highs. The recent rebound appears corrective rather than impulsive, and price is now approaching a key daily imbalance/FVG area around 98.50–98.90. This zone will likely determine the next macro move. As long as the dollar remains below this resistance cluster, I continue to favor a bearish continuation scenario targeting 97.20 first, followed by a possible revisit of the 95.50 weekly demand area. The COT data still supports this cautious outlook. Non-commercial traders remain slightly net short on the dollar: Long positions: 21,403 Short positions: 21,882 At the same time, Open Interest increased significantly (+8,518), signaling fresh positioning and growing participation. This usually precedes expansion in volatility, meaning the market could soon deliver a stronger directional move. Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis. Historically, May tends to be moderately positive for DXY on a 10Y and 15Y basis, but shorter-term seasonal flows (2Y) remain clearly bearish. Even more important, the broader yearly seasonal tendency points toward weakness during the summer months, especially from June into August. My focus now is entirely on how price reacts inside the current daily imbalance: Rejection from this area would confirm bearish continuation. A clean weekly reclaim above 99.50 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the path toward 100.50 and potentially 101.70.

by EdgeTradingJourney

USD $ Has A Decision To Make - More Upside Or A False Breakout 🌎SeekingPips🌍 has been bullish the US Dollar for the past few weeks and dip traded to at 97.800 we were buying. However we didn't trade It directly rather we were selling both the GBPUSD and EURUSD. Now we sit down and stalk the neck move. We are waiting to see what happens at an old weekly high. So far looks like it holds BUT YOU must pay attention and be aware of a deeper retracement than it currently has done. [ b]Our current upside target obvious 100 and 100.500 after that. So the last 240min swing high would need to break and price would have to continue to make new higher high and lows. If this proves a false breakout then there is not strong support and price could easily test the gre zone again. In this case we would be watching price very closely looking for a potential Buy signal after the flush.

HOW TO TRADE THE GRAND CUP 2 PROP FIRM TOURNAMENT! Hey Traders Happy Saturday just wanted to make a quick video about how we should all enter this tournament. Its a great way to learn about prop firms at the same time you will learn what it takes to trade under pressure. Its free for everyone so I just signed up I think today is last day. This is a futures prop firm trading tournament but you can trade multiple products and even use tradingview for the platform which is great. I will be keeping everyone updated on trading view how the progression of the tournament goes. Good Luck to all of us and may the best outlaw win! 😁 Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading Clifford RISK DISCLOSURE TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.

05:28

by The25YearTrader

THE US DOLLAR 123 TOP FORMATION CONFIRMED!Bullish- As mentioned in my Monday Morning Market Open Video US Dollar is topping so I think the decline will continue. It has daily close below support at 98.67. This is not a bullish at all but if you are bullish I would wait until a break above resistance at 99.99 before considering buying a pullback. Bearish- Yes 100% bears are in control right now although the FED didn't indicate rate hikes in the future. They said they are going to wait and see on the data. So unless inflation scares happen again with Oil then I think the selling will continue. But I don't think we should short just yet! Why? Look closely at the gap on the chart. There is an old saying in trading and that is when you see a gap it normally gets filled! Now of course I am not and cannot guarantee the gap will get filled but a large percentage of the do! So I say wait to a rise back 99.40 then short it with stop above resistance at 100.50 or go long the Euro when it pulls back. Commitment of Traders- they are slightly bullish long 4500 contracts so they are not overcrowed bullish but if they do get overcrowded bullish that is even more of a reason to go against the them because if they are overcrowded to the long side eventually the buyers dry up and there is no one else left to buy. What happens then they all have to start selling to get out! Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford RISK DISCLOSURE TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.

by The25YearTrader

U.S. Dollar Index Future Bullish Butterfly On the 4H chart, U.S. Dollar Index Futures are approaching a technically important reaction zone after completing a Bullish Butterfly harmonic pattern. The pattern terminates inside a well-defined PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) around the 97.60–97.25 area, which also overlaps with a prior order block. This confluence makes the current region highly relevant for a possible bullish reaction. After the strong selloff from the recent highs, price has now reached a zone where downside momentum may start to fade. In addition, RSI is trading in a weak area, suggesting the market is already stretched on the downside. That does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does support the idea that sellers may be losing momentum near support. As long as price holds above the lower boundary of the PRZ and the stop-loss area around 97.25, a recovery move toward the next Fibonacci retracement levels becomes increasingly likely. The first upside targets are located near the 38.2% retracement, followed by the 50.0% and 61.8% levels, with the latter sitting around 99.30 and acting as the main bullish target in this setup. The bullish idea would be invalidated by a clear break below the PRZ and stop-loss zone, as that would suggest the harmonic support has failed and sellers remain in full control. Overall, this is a countertrend bullish setup inside a larger bearish move, so confirmation through price action is important. If buyers defend the PRZ, the chart offers an attractive rebound opportunity with a favorable risk-to-reward structure.

US Dollar Seasonality Could Be At Odds With Geopolitics I look at seasonality figures for the US dollar index in April and outline what the most bearish scenario could be, and why I still thin it could head for 102 over the coming weeks. MS.

03:25

USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Outlook I outline why I think the US dollar could continue higher towards 102, but not before a pullback due to price action clues from EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. MS.

03:34

USD Index Ready to Rip?Price action seems constructive for another leg higher, assuming the US dollar index can hold above 99.20. MS.

02:16

USD Index Wobbles ~100 Ahead of FOMC I update my analysis on the US dollar index, given the current rally has taken out what I previously assumed to be the completion of a wave C. MS

03:04

USD Index - Potential Bearish Reversal Following ABCD Pattern 1. Technical Context: The USD Index has rallied for four consecutive sessions, recovering from a prior swing low. This recovery has formed a clear harmonic pattern. 2. Pattern & Fibonacci Analysis: A bullish ABCD pattern is identified on the lower time frame, with its terminal point (D) completing at the exact 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the preceding down leg. This constitutes a classic pattern completion signal. The subsequent rally from point D is now testing a Fibonacci resistance cluster at the 0.382 extension level . 3. Interpretation & Bias: While momentum is currently near-term bullish, the confluence of a completed harmonic pattern at a key Fibonacci retracement provides a compelling potential reversal map. The structure suggests the rally may be corrective (wave B), increasing the probability for a resumption of the prior downtrend (wave C). The setup favors monitoring for bearish price action at the noted resistance for a short entry opportunity. 4. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 0.382 Fib Extension Pattern Invalidation: A sustained break above the 0.618 extension level. Confirmation: Requires bearish reversal candlesticks or momentum divergence at resistance.

US Dollar Index – Temporary Relief Before Further Downside?The US Dollar Index continues to trade under structural pressure on the daily chart, following the strong downside impulse that broke November’s value area and pushed price into a key weekly demand zone around 97.90–97.30. After a clear momentum swing lower, the index is now showing early signs of corrective strength, but the broader context continues to favor weakness into year-end. On the technical side, price has reacted from support and is attempting a corrective retracement toward the 98.75–99.00 supply zone. This zone aligns with: – Daily bearish trendline resistance – A fresh Fair Value Gap (FVG) – Previous structure imbalance If price completes this pullback, the zone provides a high-probability region for bearish continuation targeting new lows into 97.50–97.20. The RSI remains below the midline, indicating momentum has not fully shifted to the upside and that current strength is corrective, not impulsive. Seasonality reinforces this bearish narrative. December historically records negative averages in the Dollar Index across virtually every timeframe. The 20-year average in particular shows strong downward pressure late in the month, with typical weakness accelerating into year-end. Current price action is consistent with this seasonal pattern. From a positioning standpoint, the latest COT report shows Non-Commercial traders significantly net short, with shorts sitting at 28,652 vs. longs at 14,778. This imbalance continues to reflect confidence in downside continuation. At the same time, the Commercial category reduced long exposure and increased shorts, adding further weight to bearish bias. The aggregate positioning structure is clearly aligned with the existing downtrend. Overall, the Dollar Index remains structurally bearish. A final upside correction into the 98.75–99.00 supply zone could precede the next leg lower. Only a clean break and close above 99.20 would weaken the bear case and signal a potential shift in directional bias. Until then, rallies remain sell-side opportunities.

by EdgeTradingJourney

Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Sequence Targets 97.7 The Dollar Index (DXY) has broken decisively below the December 4 low at 98.76, establishing a clear bearish sequence from the November 21 peak. This structural decline favors continued downside momentum. The immediate target is the 100% Fibonacci extension measured from the November 21 peak, which projects toward 97.7. From that peak, wave ((i)) concluded at 99, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)) that terminated at 99.56. The Index then extended lower in wave ((iii)) toward 98.82, while the subsequent rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 99.02. The final leg, wave ((v)), reached 98.76, thereby completing wave 1 of a higher degree cycle. Following this initial decline, the Index staged a corrective advance in wave 2, unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the termination of wave 1, wave ((w)) ended at 99.12, while the pullback in wave ((x)) concluded at 98.79. A final push higher in wave ((y)) reached 99.32, completing wave 2 in higher degree. With this correction finished, the Index has resumed its downward trajectory in wave 3. From the wave 2 high, wave ((i)) ended at 99.13, and the rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 99.3. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 99.32 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail. The decline should continue to unfold in sequences of 3, 7, or 11 swings, reinforcing the bearish outlook and favoring further downside pressure toward the projected Fibonacci target.

by Elliottwave-Forecast

DXY EXTREME BEARISH DIVERGENCE > ABOUT TO COME STRAIGHT DOWN!DXY Has been on a tear but I think thats about to end and I think it will end very quickly. There is multiple very strong bearish divergences on the weekly, across multiple indicators showing that a major move down is coming. I think we have reached the top for the DXY for a while and its about to tank. Dont know whats around the corner as far as news but something big is about to come out thats going to kill the DXY. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. If you apprecaite my work please consider giving this chart a boost and follow me for more updates. Thank you and good luck my friends.

US Dollar Seasonality Patterns for December I delve into excel to assess seasonal patterns within the month of December for the US dollar index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.

05:46

Dollar at a Turning Point: Base Building for a Breakout We believe a longer-term base is developing for the US dollar. At present, the market has reached a key level of resistance — the same level we saw at the end of 2023. While near-term consolidation is possible, the broader picture suggests strength. Key points: - The 200-day moving average has been eroded, with three closes above it. - The monthly chart shows the dollar bouncing off a very long-term uptrend dating back to 2011. - This structure points to a positive long-term outlook, with dips offering potential buying opportunities. - The base suggests upside toward approximately 104. Disclaimer: This post reflects market observations for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed professional before making trading or investment decisions.

02:00

USD Index, AUD/USD Hint at Near Term Reversals As outlined in last week’s video, I suspect the US dollar may have the potential to break higher as part of its wave C before momentum realigns with its dominant bearish trend. However, Monday’s shooting star candle just below 100, coupled with an overbought RSI (2), warns of a potential pullback ahead of any breakout. Also note that AUD/USD has formed a spinning top doji near the September low, suggesting that bearish momentum is waning despite closing lower for a fourth consecutive day. With the RBA likely to deliver a hawkish tone when they hold rates today, there’s potential for a short-term bounce in the Australian dollar. However, if I’m right in expecting an eventual bullish breakout in the US dollar index, I’ll also be watching for evidence of a swing high on AUD/USD once that anticipated bounce is delivered. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index