Is Novo breaking out of a falling trend channel?In 2024, Novo formed a head–shoulder pattern with a breakdown at the end of September. Since then, the stock has been moving within a falling trend channel until now.
On September 18 this year, the stock broke above the trend channel by 6–7% on increased volume. It has since pulled back to test the upper line of the channel and is now moving up again.
There is resistance around 390. If the stock breaks significantly above this level with rising volume, it will be clearly technically positive.
Price momentum indicators are currently neutral, and the stock remains within a red Ichimoku cloud, but RSI 21 is trending higher.
The stock is slightly technically positive at this point but could quickly turn decisively positive if it breaks above 390.
The analysis covers a medium-term horizon (1–6 months).
Fundamentals:
Fundamental analysts remain broadly positive on the stock.
“Novo announced a global restructuring affecting 9,000 employees.
The purpose is to increase decision-making speed, strengthen performance culture, and redirect resources toward growth areas within diabetes and obesity ...
Despite short-term uncertainty, we assess that growth potential remains attractive (though somewhat lower than previously expected). The pipeline is strong, and Novo remains in a leading capacity position.”
Quoted from Jyske Bank, Denmark.
Disclaimer:
I hold a position in the stock.
Note: You must do your own research and assessment before buying or selling shares.
The Iron Leviathan: A Structural Analysis of Cyclical CrossroadsThe ocean does not care for your spreadsheet formulas, nor does it weep when your capital sinks into the deep. Five thousand winters ago, we read the stars and the flight of birds to survive the treacherous trade routes. Today, we read the candlestick charts of Maersk. This is an ancient empire built on modern steel, sitting at a fascinating cosmic crossroads where fundamental value meets brutal macroeconomic tides.
To understand this enterprise, an investor must look beyond short term price action and examine the absolute defenses of the fleet, its competitive moat, and its power to command tribute from the merchants of the world.
To the uninitiated eye, pricing power seems like a simple decree a king demanding more gold just because he wears the crown. But on the wine dark sea, pricing power is a complex, shifting tide governed by the laws of capacity and the desperation of merchants. For the Maersk armada, this power operates like a pendulum swinging between two completely different realms.
-The Shackles of Peace;
When the waters are calm and the kingdoms of the earth are at peace, Maersk has very little unilateral pricing power on the immediate open market (the "spot market"). Shipping containers are ultimately a commodity. If rival fleets launch an excess of massive steel hulls into the water, supply outstrips demand, and freight rates crash to the seafloor. In these times of quiet doldrums, Maersk must accept whatever low tribute the global market indices dictate just to keep their vessels moving.
-The Premium of Chaos;
The true, terrifying peak of Maersk’s pricing power emerges during times of geopolitical crisis, structural bottlenecks, or blockaded straits. When supply chains break, global vessel capacity is instantly squeezed tight. Desperate merchants see their goods rotting on the docks and realize they face ruin if they cannot reach the marketplace. Because Maersk controls the ultimate, premium logistics network, they can implement Peak Season Surcharges and emergency disruption fees. Merchants will willingly pay a five-fold premium not for the ship itself, but for the guaranteed slot and the certainty that their treasure will survive the journey.
To the modern chart watcher, pricing power is not just an abstract shield it is the direct catalyst that dictates whether the stock price climbs to the heavens or sinks into the dark abyss. On the Trading View star map, this power transmits into price action through three distinct channels.
1. The Cash Flow Multiplier (The Bull Catalyst): When Maersk weaponizes its pricing power during supply chain crises, its revenue scales exponentially while its fixed costs remain flat. This triggers a massive explosion in Free Cash Flow. On your chart, this fundamental shift is what fuels massive momentum breakouts, as institutional funds rush to buy the surging earnings.
2. The Valuation Floor (The Bear Shield): When the global spot market crashes due to an oversupply of hulls, Maersk's pricing power handles the defense. Because they lock in multi year pricing covenants with massive global corporate empires, their earnings do not completely fall off a cliff. For the stock price, this creates a reliable structural floor, preventing catastrophic sell offs and holding key long-term support levels.
3. The Multiplier Premium (The Institutional Magnet): A shipping company with zero pricing power is treated like a volatile, low-margin slave to the commodity cycle, punished with a low valuation. Because Maersk can command premium tribute through its integrated network, the market rewards it with a higher price to earnings premium. Investors are willing to pay more gold per share because they know Maersk can defend its profit margins even when the macro seas turn treacherous.
The scrolls have been unrolled, and the warring currents of the deep have been laid bare. Now, we stand upon the jagged cliffs of the marketplace, watching this massive iron leviathan navigate the cosmic crossroads.
Whether this armada conquers the next epoch or gets trapped in the stagnant doldrums is a riddle only the gods of liquidity can answer. The forces of structural overcapacity and geopolitical chaos are locked in a titanic, mathematical stalemate. No single trader, no matter how wise, can predict which wind will break the deadlock first.
Keep your star maps clean and your drawing tools precise. Do not let greed cloud your vision, nor fear freeze your hand. Treat Maersk as the volatile, uncaring beast it has always been since humanity first pushed logs into the foaming surf. Watch the boundaries of the horizontal channel, track the tribute of the freight indices, and let the market reveal its own true course.
May the gods of the trade winds watch over your capital, may the sea mothers smile upon your ledger, and may your stops never be breached by the terrifying leviathans of the deep! 
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NovoNordisk, LT dirt cheap | GLP-1 a misunderstood growth marketNovo Nordisk stock has lost quite some weight since the release of Eli lilly's drug Zepbound and Mounjaro and since the rise of compounded, or generic copycat GLP-1 alternatives. The growth of the company has slown down a bit, but the overall GLP-1 market growth is still impressive and misunderstood. Both Lilly and NVO have become some of the cheapest PEG stocks in the markets and compettitors, of which most known, Hims en hers health also took a slice of growth of this market by telehealth GLP-1 descriptions.
The copycat descriptions could be dangerous due to unvalidated low quality GLP-1 or agonist GLP-1 substances. Therefore a lot of law suits have been initiated by NVO.
Where Oral Wegovy still has to be FDA approved withinin ~4, 7 months in USA, the company also has new medication approvals awaiting in the pipeline, medications like Cagrisema. (Phase 3 clinical trials, approval in late 2025 or early 2026)
Amycretin - a unimolecular long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist.
Where investors have already praised Lilly for the better drug, GLP-1 demand is surging harder than production for both companies.
Where Wegovy and Ozempic are approved by The FDA to sell, many costs for the patients themselfs aren't covered by the health insurance yet. Wegovy or Zepbound isn't covered for mainstream when prescribed by your physician yet. it's only covered for severe obisty for example. Therefore penetration rates of the drug aren't very high yet and will get higher where it will be coverd for more people. Also due to the high cost many copycat GLP-1 agonist market have arisen.
There is some improvement in cost coverage for these types of medicine Which will boost the revenue due to prescribtion sales.
Next these facts, there are still new markets for GLP-1 to be approved like in india and Japan where worldwide demand is much greather than production capacity. Both Lilly and NVO are expanding fast. Many new production volume is created and Needed!, NVO is expanding production sites in brazil and china.
I'm exited for the earnings today. NVO has had many dumps before but has proven to be a up only company. The profits of the company have doubled from $7B to >$14B since Wegovy FDA approval. from the top shares have dumped 70% where there is still >10% growth. Since the FDA approval (june 2021), other markets excluded the share is just +40% up. The stock is much cheaper now with double the profits and revenue, and still >10% growth.
Let's see what happens with earnings. Good luck.
If you want to buy NOVO.....A follower asked for my opinion on this stock which he said many are shorting this and asks if he should be a contrarian instead.
I do not own this stock and has no intention to at this moment but just looking at the chart, here's my 2cents :
1) price has fallen by 70+% from the peak from June 2024 (more than 12 months of bearish moves)
2) price is still in the downward channel and no reversal pattern is in sight
3) How will Donald Trump's tariffs hit these pharma companies down the road remain a mystery. Prefer to let the dust settles first, ie. you may not catch at the lowest price but at least if the trend is up , you have participated in it.
4) Time Horizon - are you investing for long term ? If yes, then further fall in prices may be a good opportunity to average down.
5) Economic Moat - how intense is the competition in the obesity drugs market ? How are the other competitors doing ? Is Novo market shares being encroached ? if yes, what are its strategies to counter that ?
Reading some of the analysts' comments on this stock, it seems like short term prices may not recover as fast as many disappointed investors wanted. Further selling pressure may persists, creating more fear in the market. It may takes several years for the prices to recover to its glorious days so patience is really needed if you want to invest in it.
6) Substitutes - Are there better healthcare companies that you can choose to invest in compared to NOVO ? Consider your investing objectives, capital allocation, timeline, risk/reward, etc
No rush.....
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