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Troubled Gam may be acquired by a larger groupGAM Holding AG is a Swiss Investment Manager firm which runs a number of Investment funds. Just over a year ago GAM Holding AG suspended a manager for not following internal procedures. The repercussions on GAM were enormous. One of their funds, "ARBF", had to be suspended. Most investment advisors removed all GAM funds from their recommended list and GAM suffered huge outflows of funds. GAMs share price collapsed from over CHF 16 to around CHF 4.00 - a fall of 75% GAM now seems to have stemmed the outflow of funds. AUM rose quarter on quarter to March 2019. GAM says its priority is to restore confidence and move on from the past incident. The winding up of the ARBF is expected to be completed in mid July 2019. GAM is exploring all options to maximise value for shareholders. According to some press reports, that includes seeking a merger partner, but does not exclude going it alone. As a provider of investment funds, GAM is a pretty small player. A larger fund manager could easily absorb GAM, its funds and clients without taking on too much extra resources. Following the collapse in the share price, GAM is trading at a level well below what would be expected based on assets under management alone. Look at the table below. Recently, three fund managers have taken 3% stakes in GAM. Shroders, Blackrock and Soros. George Soros and his activist funds are opportunists who may be instrumental in engineering a merger. Have a look at the table below. Notice how GAM's Market capitalisation relative to its assets under management is much lower than the other firms. Name of Company GAM Holding AG Currency CHF AUM (billions) 139 Revenues 2020e (millions) 338 Market Capitalisation (millions) 710 Name of Company Schroders plc Currency GBP AUM (billions) 421 Revenues 2020e (millions) 2'071 Market Capitalisation (millions) 6'820 Name of Company Blackrock Inc Currency USD AUM (billions) 6'520 Revenues 2020e (millions) 16'900 Market Capitalisation (millions) 70'811 As for GAM's share price, the low point seems to be well behind us. It took quite a leap on the announcement of the Soros stake in May 2019, and has maintained the higher levels since then. It may be a long road to recover, but the kicker could be a bid.
SIX:GAM
by Clive_Thompson
1
Investing in Uber Is the Worst Thing You Can Do with Your Money Uber’s IPO is the biggest IPO since Facebook (FB) went public in 2012. It marks the first time individual investors can buy this beloved company. IPOs carry a special allure. Investors dream of “getting in on the ground floor” and riding the stock to 20X–30X profits. But collecting profits of 20X or better is possible if you identify disruptive stocks early on. Uber is certainly disruptive. But as I’ll show you, it’s a horrible investment. Uber Burns More Cash than Any Company I’ve Ever Seen It is dangerously unprofitable. Its IPO documents show it lost $1 billion on $3 billion in sales in just the past three months. Now some might say: "Stephen, it's no big deal that Uber makes no money. Amazon made little profit for its first couple of years and it’s been an incredible investment. Its stock has soared 100,000% since its IPO. I want to get in on the ground floor of Uber like many did with Amazon!" It’s true that early investors in Amazon (AMZN) got rich. It’s also true that Amazon lost money in its first seven years of business. From 1996 to 2002, it burned through around $3 billion. The thing is, Uber has lost more money in the past nine months than Amazon did in its first seven years ! And Uber isn’t a “new” company. You can forgive young startups for sacrificing profits for growth. Uber has been around for a decade and is still nowhere near profitability. Another Popular Argument for Buying Uber Stock It goes like this: “Uber will be among the biggest IPOs since Facebook… and Facebook’s stock has shot up 450% since 2012!” Facebook is one of the most efficient cash-generating machines America has ever seen. It makes money selling online ads, which is an extremely profitable business. At its peak, Facebook was turning $0.50 on every dollar of sales into pure profit. That is off-the-charts incredible. It’s nearly unheard of for a company as big as Facebook. Uber’s margins are off the charts too. But they’re off-the-charts awful. Uber loses 25 cents on every dollar it brings in. In fact, research from Recode shows Uber loses an average of $1.20 on every ride. Uber’s problem is the fares it charges aren’t nearly enough to cover its expenses. Roughly 80% of a fare goes toward paying drivers and related expenses. In other words, almost all its revenue is gone before it can even pay overhead costs like rent or salaries for its 16,000 employees. Uber Will Never Make Money Money-losing firms often aim to achieve profitability through “scale.” This means a company keeps growing and growing and selling more and more stuff. Eventually its revenue surpasses expenses. This worked for Facebook. In its first few years, Facebook actually lost money. By 2009, it was selling enough ads to earn a profit. It cost Facebook a ton of money to build out its online ad platform. But once it was up and running, it barely cost anything to sell each additional ad. As it sold more and more ads, costs stayed flat and income soared. Uber’s business model does not afford this luxury. Very few of its costs are “fixed.” Every ride costs it money. As I said, it’s losing roughly $1.20 on every trip. More trips won’t solve this because costs rise just as fast as revenue. Uber is trapped in a money-losing spiral it can’t escape. Even if Uber Succeeds, Most of Its Upside Is Long Gone Early private investors have claimed it all. For example, former cyclist Lance Armstrong is an early investor in Uber. He invested $100,000 around 2009 when the company was valued at less than $4 million. Since then Uber has surged 25,000X in value! If Armstrong held on to his whole $100,000 stake, it’d be worth roughly $2.5 billion today. As I said, you stand a chance to reap triple-digit profits or even more if you buy when a promising disruptive stock is small and 20X gains (or better) are on the table. By the way, you can check my three favorite stocks that fall into this category here. But Uber is already HUGE. As I mentioned, it’s worth $100 billion. It’s already among America’s 100 largest companies. Uber’s IPO is no ground-floor opportunity. Uber is a giant, overvalued, money-losing enterprise that early investors have already milked dry. It’s a win-win for drivers and customers. But it’s a lose for investors.
SIX:UBER
by StephenMcBride
KNIN Bullish Comeback with massive Rally?After all that fear in the market, Kühne&Nagel was that stock to buy in the swiss market. Strong sales, strong profit, good EBIT margin. So, what else? KNIN was in a "sell-off" since its ATH in January 2018. But now, I think its time to buy this company because of several reasons. First of all, the price hit the trendline from the Jan. 2011 to June 2013. This was a strong support, so that investors could load on some shares with a good price at all! In a weekly chart, just the fuse of the candle hangs downwards, but not the body. Thats important. It was equal to say it was the buy oppurtunity in this stock. General Market Situation is definitely nice now. SPX is about its important daily emas 55 and 200. There could be some more buying power in the markets in the next few months or even new all-time-highs in us-stocks! Moving Averages are resistances in the daily & also weekly time frame. But theres a chance to geht nearly to the ATH when we close with the weekly candle above CHF 145.00. Hard resistances are the fibo levels: CHF 145.00, CHF 159.00 and the ATH at CHF 182.00. I recommend to buy this stock and hold it until it hits price of CHF 158. Stop-Loss could be CHF 130. (Disclaimer: The writer could hold some of the shares included in the text above)
SIX:KNINLong
by swissyoungtrader
SNB - Central Bank Canary in the Coal Mine exits to the shortAt long last, one of our most important Canaries in the Coal Mine - the Swiss National Bank - has exited a lengthy consolidation pattern to the downside. Frankly, we are surprised it lasted this long given its exposure to long US mega-cap. Whatever is going on in there, it needs to take out 5400 on the upside to nullify today's short signal using the simple www.40in20out.com trend trading approach. (For what it's worth, for some reason our PineScript does not work on the delayed quotes on this exchange. We continue to investigate.)
SIX:SNBNShort
by 40in20out
SWISSQUOTE A GOLD MINE?Swissquote is designing a very typical bullish pattern. I Play this pattern normally over very shorter periods and it works fine. 2003-2007 there was a very rapid increase in the value of swissquote. Even if I don't trade with swissquote, I know that they have a good product and my superficial Impression is that of a dynamic society with expansion potential. So I'm interested in it. If it break the blue bar, let it go. The red bar is the level to confirm. On the red bar we should assist to a bullish Impulse. It should follow a bear trap and then a strong break out. Let see what happens in the next months. BIO
SIX:SQNLong
by FerdiHodler
CLN X, ABC-Correction finished.General Analysis ********************* A few weeks ago I posted that short trigger of CLN because of te bearish triangle. Now I would like to tell u about my new long strategy in Clariant. The price just followed the triangles lines for a "long" time to a false breakout. This breakout has been ended in a huge selloff. When the price returned to the triangle its lost was further 20%. Now at the price of approximately CHF 19.00. We could say, that the correction from the all-time-high to the todays price is a mid-term ABC-Correction in my eyes. Support & Resistance ************************** The strongest support zone is actually from CHF 18.40 to CHF 19.00. If the price falls out of this zone or under the yellow trendline, would this trigger a new selloff to CHF 17.50. But that is not likely at the time. It could get more likely if the general market conditions dont change. First resistance-level will be the red lines at CHF 21.00 resp. CHF 22.00. A gap-close at CHF 25.00 is more likely if the prices can close on weekly time-frame above the red resistance level. Short Trading Idea before *******************************
SIX:CLNLong
by swissyoungtrader
STORY: Alibaba And The Forty Thieves - Steal, steal - MUST READ!Once upon a time, there lived two brothers named Kasim and Alibaba, who were sons of a merchant and had an equal amount of inheritance. While Cassim married a rich lady and became a wealthy merchant, Alibaba married a poor, humble woman and lived the life of a woodcutter. One day, Alibaba goes deep into the forest for some good quality wood. There, he chances upon a cave owned by a gang of 40 thieves. He watches from behind a tree and learns that the cave is magically protected. He hears the leader of the thieves say a magical word to open and close the cave... Alibaba said the magical words, and the door opened... ************************ Alibaba is now rich and huge, and he might one day be in the same league as Amazon and Google. This is China's no 1 - Welcome to AliBaba! Buy, Buy! D4 <3
BLong
by D4rkEnergY
2
IDORSIA CATCHING THE FALLING KNIFE WITH THE BULLISH CONFIRMATIONIt was the 6 februar and as a inexperienced trader, without any concept of resistence and support I was racking my brain trying to find a bottom to ethereum. Trendline were like butter cutted by a hot knife, people were screeming it will go to Zero but I was sure that there was an end to the sell off. I tryed to find a logic behind the possible point of reversal and I found it in the bullish confirmation. The bullish confirmation is nothing more than the basis of a second bullish impulse. This level is like a touch down. The coin or share says you: my value is above this level. I don't want to go more down. Here is a strong support. all these points are necessary to confirm a potential bullish coonfirmation: 1) bullish impulse 2) bear trap (pull back) 3) second bullish impulse The bullish confirmation is exactely where the bear trap was revealed (the basis of the second bullish impulse). Here a low time frame chart on ethereum showing you how I catched 3 times Ethereum thanks to this trick. and here a small time frame on this structure In the case of Idorsia is a little bit more tricky because the bullish confirmation or basis of second impulse is at 18.9 (basis of the bullish impulse) and not 18.3 ( basis of the pullback) Confirming the hypothesis of a reversal point at this level there is also the support trendline of this orange downtrend channel. As Idorsia is a very volatile share I see this level as a likely reversal point even if the SMI is not over with his corrective phase. As I believe in Idorsia and I want to increase the number of share and I'm shorting since 23.6 Chf I can allow me to put a buy order at this level and decide in a second moment If I have to short more or not. BIO
SIX:IDIA
by FerdiHodler