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IGB 10Y Monthly UpdateIGB 10Y has seen one of the biggest rallies in recent years, moving about 25 bps in May (around 39 bps from its recent high of 7.14%). MPC commentary and policy measures to attract foreign capital—such as concessional forex swaps for raising ECBs by PSUs and full hedging-cost benefits to AD banks for raising FCNR(B) deposits—have raised hopes of stronger foreign currency reserves (expected inflows of roughly $75 billion), and bond yields responded positively. In addition, tax benefits announced by the government for FPI investment in G‑sec also contributed to the rally. Separately, a US–Iran ceasefire agreement for 60 days caused Brent crude to fall to about $73 from a high near $125, which acted as a positive catalyst for the Indian bond market by easing balance‑of‑payments and fiscal‑deficit concerns. For the coming month, the Fed’s decision and commentary will be key market catalysts, with some participants already expecting rate hikes. In addition to the sustainability of crude prices, foreign capital flows driven by RBI and government actions should be closely monitored. I expect the IGB 10Y to broadly trade in a range of 6.64%–6.80% over the next month. The 200‑day EMA will be a crucial technical level; any close below it could fuel a further rally in bond yields. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
US10Y | MarketOmorph Week 23 | 07-JUN-2026The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield continues operating above structural pivot participation while the broader elevated structure remains intact. Despite rotational behaviour across risk assets during the period, yields remained within upper participation territory. Current activity reflects continued participation above pivot references rather than meaningful structural deterioration. WHAT CHANGED SINCE WEEK 21 • Participation remained above structural pivot (~3.9–4.3) • Upper participation remained active • Rotational behaviour continued within elevated territory • Broader elevated structure remained intact STRUCTURAL OBSERVATION • Operating above structural pivot (~3.9–4.3) • Upper participation remains active • Participation continues within elevated territory • Broader elevated structure remains intact BEHAVIOUR OBSERVATION Current behaviour reflects ongoing participation activity within upper participation territory while remaining above structural pivot references. POSSIBLE PATHWAYS 🟢 Participation Strengthens • Sustained participation may support continued activity toward higher structural references 🟡 Neutral Rotation • Continued movement may reflect ongoing participation activity within the existing upper participation environment 🔴 Participation Weakens • Reduced participation may shift focus back toward structural pivot participation (~3.9–4.3) EDUCATIONAL LAYER Participation can remain elevated for extended periods without producing a meaningful structural transition. Location within the structure is often more important than short-term fluctuations. NEUTRALITY LAYER This is a structural reference, not a forecast. Structure first. Action later. MarketOmorph Structure → Level → Trigger → Probability DISCLAIMER Educational content only. Not financial advice. No recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. #US10Y #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #MarketOmorph #MarketStructure #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #FinancialMarkets
TVC:US10Y
by kacraj
IGB 10Y Monthly/Weekly UpdateSimilar to April Month, IGB 10Y yields traded in the range of 6.88%-7.15% during May month, closing flattish on MoM basis. 7.00% has been acting as a good resistance level in the recent times which I expect it to be continue, unless there are some positive developments wrt ongoing US-Iran War. RBI MPC outcome scheduled on June 5, and GDP release data on June 7 can act as a near term triggers for the market. High crude oil prices, and expectations of below normal monsoon aiding to the inflation concerns. FII outflows and depreciating rupee are further adding stress on the yields. Hence, RBI commentary is the important thing to watchout for during this month. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
US 10Y Yield | MarketOmorph Week 21 | 24-MAY-2026US10Y continues operating within upper participation while broader elevated structure remains intact. STRUCTURAL OBSERVATION • Rotation above structural pivot (~3.9–4.3) • Upper participation remains active • Elevated structure remains intact • Compression behaviour continues BEHAVIOUR OBSERVATION Current behaviour suggests sustained participation within elevated structural territory. POSSIBLE PATHWAYS 🟢 Participation Strengthens • Sustained participation within upper areas may support continuation of elevated behaviour 🟡 Neutral Rotation • Continued movement may reflect ongoing compression activity 🔴 Participation Weakens • Reduced participation may shift attention toward lower participation references EDUCATIONAL LAYER Compression behaviour can occur without immediately changing broader structure. NEUTRALITY LAYER This is a structural reference, not a forecast. Structure first. Action later. MarketOmorph Structure → Level → Trigger → Probability
TVC:US10Y
by kacraj
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TVC:IN05YEducation
by SkyTradingZone
IGB 10Y Monthly/Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y has risen by ~6 bps for the April month (8 bps for the last week), amid the continuation of geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices. Market is pricing the higher inflation rates, which paves the way for rate hikes. This is also visible across OIS curve, with 6M OIS is trading around 5.62% which means market pricing in one rate hike, as on today, within 6 months. High crude oil prices for long periods will be negative for Indian economy as we majorly import our crude products. The spillover effect can also be seen in the other industries related to fertilizers etc, which again moves up the inflation higher. For May month, I expect IGB 10Y to trade in the range of 6.85%-7.25%. For the current week, I expect IGB to trade in the range of 6.97%-7.15%. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y has seen one of the strongest rally for the week, falling 21 bps for the week, amid the hopes of the US-Iran peace deal, even though attacks on Lebanon has continued by Israel which is against one of the ten points truce deal proposed by the Iran. As the peace talks have failed over the weekend, I expect the volatility to continue this week in the markets. Further, Crude oil fall and rupee strengthening have supported the yields amid the possible truce deal. For the coming week, I expect 6.88-6.90% will continue to act as a resistance level, with 6.78-6.80% beyond this. On the other side, 7.00% will act as a first support level, 7.06% beyond that and 7.12-7.15% further.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB has seen another worst week in the recent times, rising around 20 bps for the last week over the previous week. This is primary because of the inflation and growth fears, apart from BoP and fiscal deficit impact due to the ongoing war. Market started to price in Rate hikes, which is being reflected in the yields across the curve as well. For the coming week, 7.15% should continue to act as a good support level. Any breach of this, could take the yields to 7.25% levels. On the other side, 7.06% could act as a resistance level, further 7.00% given its confluence with the trendline.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Monthly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst months since January 2018, closing around 6.96% and rising by 30 bps over the week. The ongoing US-Iran war raised concerns around fiscal deficit and inflation numbers due to raising crude oil prices and supply shortage in natural gas. The first half of the month, yields got support from RBI in terms of OMO purchases amounting to Rs. 1.76 Lakh Crore. During the second half of the month, RBI was out of the market and fiscal deficit concerns from excise duty cut have spiked up the yields. It touched 7.00% level during the month, which is multi-year trendline level as well. For the April month, I expect yields to trade broadly in the range of 6.75%-7.25%. 7.00%-7.03% will continue to act as key support level, any daily close above the trendline will cause the yields to rise toward 7.10% level, with 7.25% beyond this. On the other side, 6.88-6.90% will be key resistance zone, with 6.80% being the next resistance level.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst weeks in recent times, closing around 6.93% and rising by 17 bps over the week, as fiscal‑deficit fears have increased following the Indian government’s excise‑duty cut on OMCs. These concerns are primarily emanating from the ongoing U.S.–Iran war, which has led to supply‑risk worries for crude and natural gas. Although some relief has come in the form of Iran allowing Indian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is still far from being out of crisis. IGB touched multi‑year trendline levels of 6.96% on Friday, which will remain a key resistance to watch. A breach of this level could push yields toward 7.05% and then 7.15%. On the downside, 6.87% will act as a key support level, with 6.80% beyond that.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.69%–6.77% amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising oil prices, falling rupee, which are raising concerns around foreign reserves and inflation. With the RBI largely out of the market, geopolitical developments will play a major role in the coming week. 6.78% has been acting as a crucial level since February. A breach of this level is likely to push yields towards 6.88%. If geopolitical tensions cool off, yields can retrace towards 6.65%.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.64%-6.76%, amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising oil prices, and supply shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. RBI purchases of ₹57,000 Cr in the first week of March, along with OMO purchases of ₹50,000 Cr each on March 9 and 13, supported yields within this range—even as inflation fears from geopolitical tensions weighed heavily. For the coming week, bond yields are expected to trade in a similar range of 6.64%-6.78%. A breach of the 6.64% support level could drive yields toward 6.60%, which is likely if positive news emerges about a war stoppage or easing supply chain fears. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateLast week IGB 10Y traded within the descending triangle amid all the geopolitical tensions. Though RBI secondary buying helped the yields to go down, yields have been recovered after the buying has stopped from RBI on friday second half. OMO announcement of Rs. 1 lakh crore after the market hours on friday, can impact the opening of the yields. Along with this, rising brent can also have impact on the same in the upcoming week. As per the technicals, 6.64% remains crucial support level and 6.78% remains first resistance. A breakout above 6.78% will likely to drive the yields to 6.88% range in the short-term. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR
TVC:IN10YLong
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly/Monthly UpdateIGB 10Y has formed a descending triangle on daily charts, with 6.64% acting as a support level. A breakout from the pattern indicates a drop in the yields to 6.50%. Hence for the coming month are expected to trade in the range of 6.50%-6.78%. 6.65% has been acting as a crucial support since last few weeks and it expected to remain the same. If it breaches, this level, it likely to find support at 6.60%, which acted as resistance in the earlier range bound motion. On the upside, if it breaches 6.75% level,it may find resistance at 6.88% levels.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99