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Government bonds

10-Year Yields Fresh 19-Year Highs As illustration of how important oil prices remain to broader macro markets, a relatively minor jump from the 90-handle in WTI has led to a strong breakout in US Treasury yields. And, in-turn, that's led to a pullback in stocks. There is a relationship here as higher oil prices place upward pressure on inflation, which increases both the odds and motivation for the Fed to lean even more-hawkish, as Warsh has clearly set forth tackling inflation as a primary objective. What makes the move inter

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USA stock market downtrand will begin at the end of May 2026?!📊 10-year US bonds: why the whole money market is watching them? If we simplify it to the most important thing, the US 10Y Treasury Yield is the main “base” of the value of money in the world. This is not just a number for economists! This is the level on which depend: mortgages in the US, business loans, stock valuations (especially the tech sector), capital inflow/outflow from the stock market. That is, in fact, the yield on these bonds is a “thermometer of fear and the value of money.” T

US30Y Breaks to a New Cycle High: 5.50% Is the Next Test The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield is trading around 5.327% on the monthly chart, pressing above the major highs formed during the 2023-2025 consolidation. The long-term structure remains bullish for yields: the recovery from the 2020 low has produced higher lows, the monthly Supertrend is still green, and the latest advance is testing territory not seen in many years. The U.S. Treasury's official 30-year par yield closed at 5.34% on September 18, broadly confirming the level shown on this chart.

Have a great weekend!When 2s and 10s tightly rise together, it is usually NOT a bad thing for the stock market. It is what happens AFTER they disconnect on the way down that havoc wrecks. Have a great weekend!

US 20Y Yield — Bullish Momentum Ahead The US 20-Year Government Bond Yield is showing a constructive bullish structure, with price action indicating renewed buying interest and strengthening upside momentum. The market continues to hold its bullish structure, suggesting that buyers remain active and are positioning for further upside. From a technical perspective, the setup is supported by continued demand and a favorable market structure. Buyers are stepping in around important areas, keeping the upward momentum intact. Any contro

by asgharphulpoto

Why Record Bonds Yield Matters Today, we read the headline: "30-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high." Yes, that is an interest rate of 5.3% for a loan tenure of 30 years. Why does this higher interest rate matter? In this discussion, we will explore the differences between the bank interest rates we receive on our savings or pay for our mortgages, the Fed's rate decisions (called the Federal Funds rate), and this Treasury yield. Finally, we will look at whether interest rates will continue to rise and how these risin

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FED raised rates, more dollar strenght possible Yesterday, as you know, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, but more importantly, Chair Warsh sounded very hawkish during the press conference. He said that inflation has been well above the 2% target for too long and that the Fed needs to bring it back towards that target. Some policymakers even voted for a 50-basis-point hike. So with the Fed delivering only 25 basis points this time, more hikes are still possible in the months ahead. That's why we saw such a strong move highe

10's back to 5% After the Rate Hike Slightly hawkish lean in the projection, and 10-year yields quickly returned to that 5% marker. The Fed is forecasting one more hike into the end of the year and that's helped to push a run of USD strength to go along with that run-higher in yields. The next major mark for 10-year notes is the 5.25% level that last traded in 2007 and if that trades soon, it would seem weakness in equities would come along with it. Next up for the USD is perhaps the more pertinent item for FX markets, and tha

Free Markets Set Rates Not The FED!"Blame the FED" is such a bullscitt excuse for all political economic theories. It's the villain in their cute story where they are the hero. In reality, it's the free markets that set rates, not the FED. The FED is always late to the party. This time was no different. The Fed raised .25 bp today. A surprise to no one who understands economics and finance. What is a pleasant surprise is that the FED has not been taken over by Trumpchenko. This keeps the FED's independence & credibility intact.

US10Y US 10 YEARS We have intraday 2h , red color, s1&s2 target 2 4.888% 4.796% is support daily

Warsh's balancing act Fed day is here, and the bank is widely expected to hike rates for the first time in three years. Interestingly, the Fed chair that President Trump took months to select and nominate has come into the bank with a highly hawkish tenor, and this likely has at least a little bit to do with the nomination process. After the administration leaked the name of Kevin Hassett, current director of the National Economic Council and widely considered to be a Trump loyalist, bond markets broke down with yi

US10Y - Bullish Setup The 10-year yield has successfully broken out of the descending wedge pattern that contained price action throughout 2024-2025, a technically bullish signal suggesting the consolidation phase is complete. Price is now pressing against the upper trendline resistance near 4.5%, and a confirmed breakout above this level would open the door toward a retest of the October 2023 highs around 5%. The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions and is trending higher with room to run before reaching overb

by ItsJust_Kess

GB 30Y Bonds — Buy-Side Opportunity After the Drop GB 30Y Bonds have experienced an aggressive downside move, but despite the sharp decline, the buy-side setup remains valid according to my analysis and methodology. The recent drop has created a significant move in price, while the current structure presents an opportunity for a potential recovery toward higher levels. From a technical perspective, the setup is based on the underlying market structure and price behavior around key areas. Rather than reacting to the aggressive sell-off, the focu

by asgharphulpoto

GB 10Y — Tactical Short Opportunity GB 10Y Bonds continue to show underlying bullish strength, but the current positioning leaves room for a temporary downside move. The idea is to take advantage of that corrective phase rather than treating it as a reversal of the broader structure. Price action is approaching an area where a controlled decline could develop, creating a potential short-term opportunity for sellers. The key focus is on how price reacts from the current zone and whether bearish momentum begins to build. This setu

by asgharphulpoto

GB 2Y Yield — Bullish Setup & Upside Potential The GB 2-Year Government Bond Yield is presenting a strong bullish setup, with price action indicating that buyers are gaining strength and the market has room for further upside. The current structure suggests that bullish momentum is developing, while key price areas continue to support the upward outlook. From a price-action perspective, the setup is focused on the current bullish structure and the behavior of price around important levels. A controlled pullback may provide a better opportun

by asgharphulpoto

Bull Flag on 10 Year Yield !!If this chart is correct next stop is near 8 % which could take several years to play out. The chart really looks like Bull Flag which makes sense since we were at a historical low for the interest rate. It is loco to think that interest rate could go that high but in the face of history it makes sense. Also since oil prices and interest rates are so correlated does this mean that oil prices will spike dramatically from here ? The war in Afghanistan was 20 years long. Does this mean we will

by CryptoAndy18

GB 20Y — Selling the Retracement GB 20Y Bonds are currently maintaining a bullish structure, but the price action suggests that a short-term retracement could develop before the broader move continues. The trade idea is focused on capturing a sell-side opportunity during the expected pullback. Rather than chasing the current bullish move, the focus remains on waiting for price to retrace into the identified area and then looking for the downside move. From a technical perspective, the setup is based on the current price struc

by asgharphulpoto

Mid-September Update, US10Y This is an update to my US10Y idea. I plastered some rays on to help mark the lines upward. 9.6% is currently the upper end of the forecast. If things change I will update, else, the October 1st update should feature confirmation.

Canada 30Y Yield — Buying Into Resistance Canada 30-Year Government Bond Yield is currently trading around a significant resistance zone, yet my outlook remains firmly bullish. 📈🔥 While resistance is clearly present and the market is already at an elevated level, I am still looking for a buy-side move toward a fresh new all-time high based on the structure and signals generated by my own trading method. This is exactly where confidence in a tested method matters. When the market reaches an obvious resistance area, the easy reaction i

by asgharphulpoto

Canada 10Y Yield — Buyers Preparing for a Fresh High Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield is approaching a well-defined resistance area, but my outlook remains bullish. Instead of treating the current resistance as an automatic selling signal, I’m reading the broader price structure and the conditions of my method to identify the potential for another upside expansion. The market has already pushed into a key technical zone, which makes this setup interesting. If buyers continue to absorb the supply around these levels and price gains acceptance

by asgharphulpoto

US 10-Year Yield: Uptrend Extends Toward 5.08% Resistance The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains in a well-defined daily uptrend, with the latest move pushing toward the 5.08% resistance area. Price action continues to form higher highs and higher lows, while the yield is trading comfortably above both the 50-day SMA near 4.68% and the 200-day SMA near 4.38%. Momentum remains supportive of the trend. MACD is above its signal line and rising, with both lines holding above the zero level, indicating continued positive momentum. At the same time, RSI ha

Canada 2Y Yield — Short-Term Strength, Upside Potential Canada 2-Year Government Bond Yield is showing a constructive setup, and my analysis is positioned toward the buy side. The focus here is on capturing the potential upward move as price develops within the current structure. Rather than relying on a single resistance or support level, this trade idea comes from the specific conditions and signals I follow through my method. The objective is to remain aligned with the market while allowing the setup enough room to develop naturally. The bullish

by asgharphulpoto

Waiting for the rate hike?📊 1. Yield Curve Snapshot & Structural Shifts Purple Curve (Baseline / Prior State) : Shows a deeply inverted short-end dipping to a local trough around 3Y (~3.55%) before sloping upward toward the 20Y/30Y (~4.65%). This reflects an aggressively priced rate-cutting cycle and lower inflation expectations. Red Curve (Intermediate Bearish Shift) : Shows a major parallel shift higher and flattening at the short end. Yields across the entire curve rise substantially, with the 10Y moving near 4