Page 20 | Ideas and Forecasts on Bonds — TradingView

Government bonds

Freight Power and Economic Growth 1. The Concept of Freight Power Freight power can be conceptualized through multiple dimensions: Transport Infrastructure Capacity: The total capacity of road, rail, air, and port networks to move goods. High-capacity networks enable faster and larger volume movement. Logistics Efficiency: Includes time taken to move goods, reliability of delivery, customs efficiency, and the technology used for inventory and transport management. Modal Diversity: The ability to move goods via multiple trans

by GlobalWolfStreet

US Shutdown... How Can This Impact Yields?A U.S. shutdown doesn’t just freeze Washington — it shakes Wall Street. Investors rush into Treasuries for safety, pulling long-term yields down, while missing data and fiscal fears can push short-term yields up. The curve bends under politics, not just economics, turning every extra day of gridlock into fresh market uncertainty. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently fell ~4.3 basis points to about 4.145 % amid safe-haven demand ahead of a possible shutdown. The curve has shown signs of ste

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by ClosingTicks

US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut bets hold, 10Y nears 4.20%U.S. Treasury yields moved mixed as markets awaited the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data showed headline and core PCE readings for August came in around expectations of 2,7% y/y, reinforcing a view of moderate inflation. The data supported ongoing investor bets on two rate cuts before year’s end. Yields on the 10-year Treasury tested for one more time the 4,0%, after which they turned toward the upside,

US10Y UNITED STATES 10 YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD .THE US10Y DEFENED 4.096% AND if buyers retest 4.146% i will look long into a 4hr bullish channel and target 4.245% the feds rate cut drop interest rate from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25% 25 basis point drop. dollar rebound on feds chair speech despite inflation above 2% way above mandate . key education information for reference . The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) is a critical benchmark for interest rates in the economy and has a strong relationship with both Federal Reserve interest rate poli

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EU10Y EURZON 10 YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD THE EU10Y beak of 2.887% SUPPLY ROOF WILL BE A long buy ,the ECB monetary policy shift will be monitored in the context of RATE CUT OR HIKE. EU10Y LOOKS READY FOR UPSWING. EURAUD LONG ,EURGBP LONG EURJPY LONG, IF YEILD STAY AND REMAIN BULLISH.WHAT EVER POSITION YOU HAVE TAKEN REMEMBER THAT 2.887% IS A REJECTION ZONE ON WEEKLY TIME FRAME . Correlation of Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield (EU10Y) and Euro Strength There is a strong positive correlation between the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield

EU10Y EURO ZONE TEN YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD THE EU10Y beak of 2.887% SUPPLY ROOF WILL BE A long buy ,the ECB monetary policy shift will be monitored in the context of RATE CUT OR HIKE. EU10Y LOOKS READY FOR UPSWING. EURAUD LONG ,EURGBP LONG EURJPY LONG, IF YEILD STAY AND REMAIN BULLISH.WHAT EVER POSITION YOU HAVE TAKEN REMEMBER THAT 2.887% IS A REJECTION ZONE ON WEEKLY TIME FRAME . Correlation of Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield (EU10Y) and Euro Strength There is a strong positive correlation between the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield

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US10Y-CN10Y PDD-(1.68*BABA+JD+2.2*MPNGY) The unforeseen path...

Interest Rates Dropped... Why Is Yields Rising?Why Yields Can Rise After a Rate Cut When people say “interest rates dropped,” they usually mean central bank policy rates (like the Fed cutting rates). But bond yields (like US10Y) are set in the open market, based on supply/demand and expectations about inflation, growth, and future rate paths. Rate cuts can be inflationary: Lower borrowing costs can stimulate spending and growth, which raises inflation expectations → investors demand higher yields. Market front-running: If the cut was al

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by ClosingTicks

Core PCE in focus: What to trade?Core PCE data, the inflation metric the FED pays particular attention to, is in focus today. Especially since the USD has maintained its strength post FOMC, with Thursday's bout of positive data boosting dollar sentiment further. An October rate cut is still very much on the cards, but a December cut is looking less likely than it did a week ago. The USD 10 YEAR is very close to that 4.2 area. Today's data could be very binary for the USD. I imagine the MOM number will be the focus, concenci

by johnelfedforexblog

US10Y TARGET COMPLETED US10Y ,the barometer and bench mark tools to check the state of united economic health, wehen invested have confidence in US10Y ,they do so with clarity that the economy will continue to grow and this sentiment strengthens the dollar index DXY. WE HAVE SEEN A SHARP RISE AFTER THE HEAD OF FEDERAL SPEECH AND RATE CUT TO 4.0%-4.25%. THE US10Y REACHED MY TP. COMPLETE ANALYSIS AS POSTED . #US10Y #DXY #DOLLAR

30 year US treasury yields going forward Showing of potential levels involving US treasury yields over the next few years as Trump puts in a "super-dove" as Fed Chair.

US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025 📊 Chart Context Current Yield: \~4.50% Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones. 📉 Key Technical Observations Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise) TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance. TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone. TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection) Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate

US 10Y TREASURY: yields bound despite Fed cut The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points which was the first reduction this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that future moves will depend on economic data rather than market expectations. Powell noted that while tariffs are beginning to lift some prices, their broader impact remains unclear, and the labor market is being more heavily influenced by declining immigration. During the previous period the 10Y US benchmark yields were reacting strongly following

CPI & FED Rates – The US 10-Year Yield Trade There’s growing expectation that the Fed may cut rates soon — but how will this impact US 10-year bond yields, which have been range-bound for nearly 2 years? Two technical scenarios I’m tracking: Bearish Case: Drop to 3–3.5% Potential Head & Shoulders top in play Price below 50 & 100-week EMAs If neckline breaks, 3% becomes a key support Chart: Bullish Case: Triangle Breakout to 4.5–5% Price still above long-term EMAs (200 & 250) Triangle pattern typically resolves as trend contin

Fed Funds Rate Drop By 0.25% Might Not Be Enough....US10Y Yields on the US 10-year Treasury rose close to 3bps to 4.06% on Friday, holding just above the 5-month lows hit in the prior session, as markets grew increasingly confident the Fed will resume rate cuts next week. Market participants are currently anticipating the equivalent of two to three quarter-point cuts by year-end, while some participants are wagering on a larger half-point move next week. What Can We Expect Going Forward: - Unusually High Volatility - High Probability Liqu

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by ClosingTicks

US 10Y TREASURY: brace for Fed cut Two important macro indicators shaped investors sentiment during the previous week. One is related to posted jobs figures, where the annual revision of non-farm payrolls revealed a decline of 911,000 jobs, reinforcing concerns among analysts about a cooling U.S. labor market. In August, inflation rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, while core inflation remained slightly elevated at 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. The declining jobs in the US supported the investors’ expectatio

Long-term expectations for US 10-year bond yields Given the recent data on the US unemployment rate and jobless claims, and the sticky inflation that is slowly decreasing, along with a technical look at the US 10-year bond chart, I expect a slow decrease in US interest rates and a decrease in the US 10-year bond yield.

Opportunities and Risks in Global Markets Section 1: Opportunities in Global Markets 1.1 Expansion of International Trade The lowering of trade barriers and rise of free-trade agreements have created enormous opportunities for companies to reach international consumers. Businesses can: Diversify revenue sources beyond their domestic markets. Scale production with access to global demand. Benefit from competitive advantages like cheaper labor or raw materials in different regions. For example, Asian electronics manufacturers sell ac

by GlobalWolfStreet

Unveiling the 40-Year Bond Yield Super-Cycle: Prepare for a potential Boom if we see a significant pullback in rates, followed by an Epic Bust thereafter! Overview: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield exhibits an 80-year cyclical pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave Theory at Super-Cycle and Cycle Degrees. The historical peak of 15.82% (Wave V) in the early 1980s marked the end of a Super-Cycle uptrend, followed by a corrective Wave C low of 0.33% around 2020. The current upward movement in Cycle Wave I suggests the beginning of a new 40

US 10Y TREASURY: weakening jobs support Fed cut bets Weakening US jobs market pushed the 10Y US benchmarked yields strongly toward the downside on Friday trading session. Yields started the week by testing the 4,2%, however, ended the week at the next support level at 4,0%. The NFP jobs data for August came as a huge surprise to the market, where only 22K jobs were added to the US economy, while the market was expecting to see at least 75K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was increased by 0,1 percentage points, to the level of 4,3%. These

Economic Tipping Point...GFC 2.0? In this video we discuss; Bond Market Signal using the 2 year yield. Is the 2 year yield giving us a 2007 / 2008 signal? We look at the correlation of the 2 year yield vs SPX We analyze the forward expectation of interest rate projections. Observe and dissect last weeks economic employment data. There will be plenty of opportunities in this next phase of the market cycle. I will be looking very forward to the plethora of trade alerts I will be issuing.

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by Trading-Capital

Weekly Review: Forex fundamental analysis.BOND YIELDS went on a wild journey during the week starting Monday 1 September. The week kicked into gear during Tuesday's European session, a UK cabinet reshuffle caused GILTS to rise rapidly as the market grows increasingly concerned about the government's ability to guide the economy. Other countries YIELDS rose in tandem, the market became concerned about rising debt payments and we had a yields up / stocks down = risk off session. Interesting to note the JPY also weakened at the time, ali

by johnelfedforexblog

US10Y & T-Notes - Does The FED Have To Reduce Rates?Last week played out to the tee, with sell side liquidity resting at 4.124% being breached causing bond prices to rise and dollar index to sell-off. There is still room to the downside for the yields to fall to, namely 3.987% but I am aware that a short term retracement can play out this week,. For that reason, I am sitting on my hands throughout the week with a neutral position. The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though

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by ClosingTicks

US10Y UNITED STATE GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD GOLD BULLS WINS ON ECONOMIC DATA REPORT . BREAKDOWN. Indicator Current Forecast Previous Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Non-Farm Employment Change 22,000 75,000 79,000 Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Fed Interpretation: Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% m/m): In line with forecasts and previous data, showing steady wage growth. Stable wage growth suggests moderate inflation pressure from labor costs. Non-Farm Employment Change (22,000): Significantly below forecast (75,000) and previous

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