Page 15 | Ideas and Forecasts on Bonds — TradingView

Government bonds

10 year yield testing 200 week moving average US Treasury Notes appear to be testing a pivotal point where the 10 year yield may cross the 200 week moving average. This only happens rarely, and when it does happen, yields rise precipitously within a relatively short amount of time.

How to Read Short-Term Interest Rate Structure Using the 20 EMA Short-term rates are one of the clearest liquidity gauges in the market. This chart shows the U.S. 2-Year Yield on the daily timeframe, using the 20 EMA as a structural guide. Rather than predicting direction, the goal is to understand behavior. What the 20 EMA Represents • When price holds above the 20 EMA, short-term rate pressure is building • When price loses the 20 EMA and fails to reclaim it, liquidity conditions begin easing • Repeated rejection at the 20 often signals momentum exhaus

by codymiller12727

10Y BOND Expectation: 1 Week BOND continues the downtrend, and now it can make a retest on 4.09 points and come down till 4 points. This is caused by the QE action, the Fed is increasing the Balance sheet, and buying the security. Above the 4.09 points price can increase till 4.2 points.

US 10Y TREASURY: False 4,2% breakout During the previous week charts showed that the recent break from the 4,2% for the 10y yields was a false breakout. Actually, the released jobs and inflation data showed better than expected results, which pushed the yields toward the lower grounds. In technical analysis, the false breakouts usually lead to a strong push of price/yields, which also occurred in 10Y yields. Although the 10Y Treasuries started the week around the 4,2%, they are closing it at 4,05%. The cooler inflation print reinf

US10Y Daily priceaction and directional bias.US10Y is the yield on the U.S .10-year treasury notes government debt security maturing in 10 years that serves as a global benchmark for interest rates, reflecting investors expectations on growth ,inflation and federal reserve policy. The US10Y represents the effective return investors demand to lend to united states government for a decade(10years).it moves inversely to bond prices, on technical, when yields are rising which signals stronger growth while falling yields indicates economic cau

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10Y Bond Weekly Conclusion:BOND has down trend, and it starts the decrease estimate expected, 4.089 points. Bond should not visit 4.197 points one more time; instead of, it can go up near 4.283 points, Now bond can delay near 4.089 point.

100 years!www.tradingview.com Does this keep you up at night? You might look for this pattern across smaller time frames, but to see it across 100 years is well.. (no words). 3 Scenarios: 1. Yields blast off directly from here. 2. A crisis (real/manufactured) comes in allowing them to pull rates down to the 6M IDM (0-0.36%) and perpetuate the divergence. Then yields spike next cycle. 3. We break the divergence and head into negative rates? The bond market doesn't lie.

ATENCION ARGENTINA GD30 Atention,... the is a high risk that trendline will be broken... The is a big big space for downs!!!!

by DinoMillionaireTrader

US 10Y TREASURY: back to 4,2%U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as investors weighed the health of the economy and softer labor market signals, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping toward around 4.2%, its lowest in about three weeks. This week only JOLTs Job Openings were posted at a level strongly lower from expectations. The figure of 6.542M was lower from the expected 7,2M. At the same time, NFP and Unemployment rate were postponed, due to a partial US Government “shutdown”. Markets have reacted to weaker econ

10Y BOND Expectation: 1 Week BOND has down trend, and it can continue. The bond starts the Decrease, and one more retest on 4.197% point, will be dangerous for the Bond and it can decrease till 4.089% point, for upside retest 4.283% point is the target, above this point, price will increase more.

US10Y United states government 10 year bond yield The US10Y refers to the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a benchmark rate for the return investors demand to lend to the US government over 10 years. the US10Y is Issued by the US Treasury, these notes pay semi-annual interest and return principal at maturity; yields move inversely to prices based on auction bids and secondary market trading. Seen as virtually risk-free, US10Y signals investor confidence in inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Economic Effects Rising US10Y increases borrowin

US10Y Analysis – 10-Year US Treasury Yields US10Y Analysis – 10-Year US Treasury Yields The US10Y Treasury yield has recently exhibited a clear internal Market Structure Shift (MSS), reflecting a change in price behavior that favors the bullish scenario. 📈 Technical Bias: Following the internal MSS, the likely expectation is a continuation of the upward trend. The anticipated movement will follow the same price pattern as the current one. This upward movement is not random but rather a result of liquidity repositioning within the mark

by DiaaIbrahim1

The Truth Behind Rising Rates (US10Y Time Wave Analysis update)Hello. It has been a long time since I last greeted you. I am now living a new life. I have come to share the truth with you. First, based on my past experience in market analysis, I would like to briefly review the current U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. The blue support line at the bottom is a long-term upward trend line. Because this line has been maintained for many years, I define it as a yearly time trend line. Of course, even if this level breaks, if a new line forms over several years, it

by TimeWaveTrading

US 10Y TREASURY: Warsh nomination eased yields There has been two important news for investors during the previous week. The first was related to the FOMC Meeting, where the Fed decided to hold interest rates, which was highly expected. The second important news was related to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair in May. Markets generally positively reacted to this news, considering their fears over independence of the Fed from political influence. At the start of the previous week the 10Y Treasury yields tested 4,2%, however

10Y Bond - 1 Week Expectation BOND has down trend and it can continue. From 4.197 point price can increase till 4.283 point, but under this point, it can make a deep retest and the first downside target is 4.089 point.

Where is all the liquidity going?Commodities Crashed Stock Market Crashed Crypto Crashed Heavy sell-off is happening across thr globe. But wait, where does all these money going to? In the last 30 days (as of Feb 2, 2026), major bond markets like US Treasuries, Japanese JGBs, and Indian government bonds have seen yields rise (e.g., US 10-year from ~4.0% to 4.26%, India 10-year to 6.72% peak) More liquidity is not good for market! We have seen Inflation in US surged for December, 2025. We are in brick of inflation, may be.

Liquidity Trickle at Risk This dashboard is built around a simple idea: short-term funding can look calm while liquidity support quietly fades . The top-left panel, FRED:SOFR − FRED:EFFR , is the “plumbing alarm.” When it rises, secured funding is getting more expensive relative to unsecured funding—often a sign that cash is getting scarce in the places that matter. Right now, that spread is muted, which tells us the system isn’t showing acute overnight stress yet. But the buffers underneath the plumbing are thinner

by quickshiftinn

10Y BOND - Weekly market conclusion BOND has down trend, and it can continue. The bond starts the increase from the expected 4.197 point, and one more retest on the 4.283 point price can increase more. Under 4.197 point price can decrease till 4.089 point.

Wild Times The charts are saying up we go. 6% and even 7.5% are potential targets. Equities better watch out, especially those with bad debt. Over the last 30-40 years, the U.S. economy has escaped severe drawdowns and crisis mainly due to cyclical refinancing periods. Most companies survived prior recession by refinancing their debt and expanding, but this time those companies may just go bust, and have their values decline to such a ridiculous level that other companies that survive will buy for a fir

by MonetaryRebel

T bonds crashing Since the Fed began easing policy and trimming the federal funds rate, short-term borrowing costs have indeed drifted lower as expected. However, long-term Treasury yields — like the 10- and 30-year — have stubbornly stayed high or even climbed, pushing bond prices down. That’s the opposite of what “textbook” rate cuts usually do, but markets aren’t textbook right now. The disconnect comes from the fact that Fed rate cuts only directly influence short-term rates, not the entire yield curve. Lon

10Y Bond - Expectation 1-2 week BOND has down trend and it can continue, 4.197 point can work, as short term support level, but under this point it can increase the chance to reach 4.089 point, one more retest on 4.283 point is dangerous, and it can increase more. QE actions are important for the Bond direction.

US 10Y TREASURY: Fed will hold rates? The previous week was full of news, both political and economical, bringing higher volatility to US Treasury yields. As the 4,2% was clearly broken, yields continued their path toward the higher grounds, reaching the peak weekly level at 4,31%. Still, some easing during the second half of the week brought yields slightly back, closing the week at 4,23%. Investors are still weighting the broader state of the U.S. economy and potential impact of current both political and geopolitical developments

Macro Structure Snapshot – Rates, Dollar & Yield Curve Alignment 1) Short-Term Rates (2Y) Short-term yields remain flat and stalled, reflecting continued compression and equilibrium. Momentum is muted, signaling ongoing digestion rather than directional intent. This reinforces a neutral short-term rate regime, keeping near-term liquidity pressure contained. 2) U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar continues to unwind lower, now trading near 97.45, with the 20 EMA showing clear downward curvature. Momentum remains negative, confirming continued cooling rather

by codymiller12727

10Y B O N D BOND general has down trend, and it can continue, but QE action from the Fed is the decision of this trend. Now the price increased till the expected area, and it can make a retest on 4.197% point, which can work as a support level. Under this point, it can decrease till 4.089% point.