10Yr Yield looking to break downtrendOh, oh. What do we have here?
The 10Yr Yield is making a push and is currently breaking the downtrend. TVC:TNX
The 2Yr Yield has been making higher lows.
Not looking good for lower rates at the moment.
Government bonds
US10Y: New Multi Decade Highs are coming for Treasury Yields!📈 US10Y: Treasury Yields Are About to Explode Higher
Longing bonds was the consensus trade heading into 2025. Everyone expected a “flight to safety” as equities tanked, but guess what? Bonds have been a massive disappointment. Instead, Bitcoin and Gold have stolen that narrative—who saw that coming?
But here’s the real kicker…
The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now forming a textbook Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2, and we’re entering Phase B with a potential Upthrust (UT) forming. That means yie
Long
UNITED STATES 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD US10YMarket Context
The yield reflects investor expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and US fiscal conditions.
Markets are pricing in potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, but persistent inflation and fiscal concerns are keeping yields and pending a clear directional bias .
The US 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs and is closely watched as a “risk-free” rate for global financial markets.
Summary
US10Y is currently at 4.35%-4.332%,
The yield awaiting furthe
Long
US 10Y TREASURY: September rate cut?Jobs data posted during the previous week shaped investors sentiment. The JOLTs job openings in May reached the level of 7.769M, higher from market forecast of 7,3M. The main impact on the market came from the NFP data for June, with 147K new jobs, above market expectations of 110K. At the same time, unemployment fell to 4,1% in June. Strong jobs data significantly decreased market expectations that the Fed might potentially cut interest rates at July's FOMC meeting. Current odds still hold for
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-11 (UPDATED DAILY)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-July 11 (updated daily)
Overnight
The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.34%. A stronger-than-expected jobs report triggered the rise. Nonfarm payrolls reached 147,000 in June. April and May payroll figures were revised higher. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Wage growth slowed to 0.2%. Investors eliminated expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability of a September rate cut fell to approxim
US02Y Bond ShortUS02Y bond is now net short on the regression break.
I am considering taking this trade.
Short
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs data aheadThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge was posted during the previous week, which impacted some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index ended May by 0,1% higher from the previous month, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. The core PCE remained a bit elevated with 0,2% in May and 2,7% for the year. Still, both figures were in line with market expectations, which was the main reason for 10Y U.S. Treasury benchmark yields drop to
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 (Updated Daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4
Overnight
On June 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26% after five sessions of decline, as markets anticipate earlier Fed rate cuts. Recent data, including subdued PCE inflation, a sharp drop in May consumer spending, a 0.5% Q1 GDP contraction, and rising jobless claims since 2021, support these expectations. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish congressional remarks and potential new Fed leadership by September or October further bolster a d
US10Y & ZB1! (Bonds) Weekly AnalysisUS 10‑Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
The 10‑year yield ended last Friday (June 27, 2025) at 4.27%
After peaking above 4.46% mid‑week, yields eased late‑week as markets increasingly priced in potential Fed rate cuts—a 25 bp move in July was seen at 22.7% probability, up from ~14%
This dovish shift, alongside a softer May PCE print, supported a lull in yield increases
Still, Inflation concerns and record debt issuance continue to underpin a term premium on long-duration debt
ZB1 – 30‑Year
Short
Long GiltsAll bonds have been accumulating for 2-3 years. I think the GILTS will outperform other developed country bonds and is a good investment for the coming year.
ULong
Price of fiscal profligacy: US10Y vs DE10Y vs CH10Y Today I will go unconventional in my analysis and look at the yields of 3 major economies with 3 different fiscal trajectories. Today we look at the 10Y Yield of US, Germany and Switzerland. 3 different countries with different Fiscal and Monetary policies off late.
The TVC:US10Y after touching the highs of 5% in Oct 2023 has been in a downward trend making new lower highs and lower lows but within the downward slopping channel sweeping the upper bound and the lower bound. Recently, touching
US10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes BuildUS10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes Build
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) has broken decisively below a key daily structure zone near 4.32%, marking a significant technical breakdown. If price action holds beneath this level, it increases the probability of a further slide toward 4.14% and potentially 3.09%—levels last seen in early April 2025.
From a broader perspective, the yield could eventually decline toward 3.64%, dating back to early September 2024.
This bearish momen
Short
US GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.The correlation between the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) and gold prices is historically inverse but has shown periods of divergence due to shifting market dynamics
1. Typical Inverse Relationship
Gold and US10Y yields traditionally move in opposite directions due to:
Opportunity Cost: Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding gold, pressuring prices.
Real Interest Rates: Gold tends to fall when real yields (nominal yield minus inflation) rise, as seen in pre-2024 data.
2. Rec
US02Y Bond LongUS02Y is now net long on the regression break.
There appears to be a increase in hedging as the stock market push to new highs.
Long
Strange Markets Update (Bonds vs Stocks vs FX)The US Bond market is gaining in the face of NASDAQ / SP500 /CHF/JPY breaking or pushing their all time highs.
It shows that the moves in these markets are be meet with hedging in the US Bond Markets.
Just take note!
Long
looks like a distributionThis is logaritmic chart from US2Y, commercials offloading their positions or the other part is closing their positions???
Short
Canada macroeconomicsTreasury bond yields and house price.
Also include unemployment rate and inflation rate YOY
US10YAs of June 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.40%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous session. Recent data from June 20, 2025, showed the yield at 4.38%, and it has hovered in the 4.3%–4.5% range throughout June. This level is above the long-term average of around 4.25%.
The uptick in yields is driven by investor concerns over US fiscal policy, a growing budget deficit, and recent credit rating actions. Federal Reserve officials have also highlighted risks related to the la
Long
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting FOMC ahead of PCEThe central event for financial markets during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to hold interest rates at current levels, but two rate cuts till the end of this year are still on the table. This was in line with market expectations. Still, the Fed Chair Powell shortly commented on the potential for higher inflation in the coming period, as a reflection of implemented trade tariffs of the US Administration. The Fed is expecting to see it reflected in the inflation figures i
US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)
Geopolitical event
Early Monday in Asia, US equity futures fell and oil prices surged following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, prompting a risk-off sentiment that saw Asian equities decline and the dollar strengthen against major currencies. The US Treasury market faced pressure as investors anticipated heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with some expecting a flight to safety that could increase demand
GB10Y BRITISH GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.1. GBP 10-Year Bond Yield
The UK 10-year gilt yield is currently around 4.54%, near its highest level since April 2025.
This yield increase reflects sticky inflation pressures and market expectations about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy stance.
2. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
The BoE held its official Bank Rate steady at 4.25% in June 2025, with a 6-3 vote in favor of maintaining rates.
Inflation remains above target at 3.4% (May 2025), but there is evidence of easing pric
Long
This is how I see the odds split for a recession.This is how I see the odds split for a recession.
Above the black line, recession less likely.
Below the red line, recession more likely.
The Fed fund rate tracks this over time.
10 YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD JGB10Y1. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield and Price
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield is around 1.40% to 1.52% in mid-2025, recently easing slightly to about 1.40% on June 20, 2025.
This yield level is significantly higher than the near-zero levels seen in previous years but remains low by global standards.
The bond price for the 10-year JGB hovers near 99.6 to 100, reflecting the inverse relationship with yields (as yields rise, bond prices fall slightly).
Japan’s bond yields have b
Long
US10Ythe US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025)
The Federal Reserv
Long