US10y expect correction to 4.0US10Y hit all tp and exepct some correction to near 4.0
arrow shows correction tp
based fib
based price action
ShortGovernment bonds
Short
Long-Term Trend of the US 10-Year YieldThe US 10-Year yield trades very well on the 3-month timeframe. Extrapolating it further, I expect it to hit 3.0-3.5% sometime within the next 12-18 months.
U.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costsU.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costs—SMART MOVE?
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! U.S. companies are flipping dollar debt into euros—slashing borrowing costs 📈🔥. Cross-currency swaps are the hot ticket amid rate gaps. Let’s break it down! 🚀
(2/9) – SWAP SURGE
• Trend: Dollar bonds morph into euros 💥
• Why: Eurozone rates lag U.S. by ~200 points 📊
• Volume: $266B in Jan ‘25 swaps, up 7% YoY
Lower rates, big savings—companies pounce!
(3/9) – THE TRIGGER
• Fed: Holds s
US 10Y TREASURY: lower on retail salesThe inflation in the US picked up above market expectations in January, however, the retail sales figures defined the market sentiment. As it has been posted, the retail sales in January suddenly dropped by -0,9%, which was much higher from the market estimate. Despite the higher inflation figures, the decrease in the retail sales provides some indication that the inflation will not significantly pick up in the coming period. This was the main indication for market participants, which brought th
The Most Effective way to fight Tariffs, is to Sell BondsIn an era when protectionist tariffs have become a go-to tool for DUNCE Political leaders such as President Voldemort, it is time for investors, institutions and nation states to take a stand—and not through traditional protest, but by wielding the formidable power of financial markets. Tariffs, by raising costs and distorting trade, can sap economic growth. Yet, as history and recent trade wars have shown, the real battleground is not just at the border but in the bond markets. The BIG FRAUD of
Critical 4.50% level being tested ahead of Trump speech and FOMCThe US10-year yield closed the week marginally higher at 4.48% after a busy week of events which saw the DXY stumble by 1.2% despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the
US10Y - Perfect Discount Delivery!Let’s take a deep dive into Yields and have a look at how price delivered throughout last week.
The week prior, I posted that we will be seeing discount prices; 4.468% equilibrium draw in the near future and we absolutely smashed that price region.
Short
Ready for 6.5% on the 10Y T-Bill?It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the $US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future.
The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting that we are in the early stages of the 5th and final wave, which is commonly 61.8% of waves 0-3 in length.
My wave count is supporte
Long
US10Y Bond Short on Regression BreakUS10Y is now net-short on regression break.
I am considering this pair, along with the 02Y and 05Y bonds.
Looking at EA that best suit the situation
Short
US05Y Bond Short on Regression BreakUS05Y is now net-short on regression break.
I will consider this pair as price action develops and decide which EA is suitable.
Short
U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Traders Watch Key LevelsThe U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is one of the most important indicators in the financial world, influencing everything from mortgage rates to stock market trends. It reflects investor confidence in the economy, rising when expectations for growth and inflation increase and falling when investors seek safer assets. The yield is closely watched by traders, economists, and policymakers as a key gauge of market sentiment.
The chart recently showed a confirmation bar, moving into the momentu
Long
EUR/USD short: End of the rebound higherHello traders
My TP at 1.0370 was executed on my long EUR/USD position.
I have initiated a short EUR/USD position after Chair Powell's testimony this morning.
He expressed confidence in the economy staying robust and that there is no rush to cut interest rates.
The chart is my guiding light on a daily basis to determine which direction risk is heading.
EUR/USD is heading down again after testing the daily breakdown at 1.0382. USD CPI tomorrow MAY reverse the tide again, so keep a close eye on
Results Of QE TighteningWhat you're seeing in this chart is the 10 year. A great one to watch to see what the market is thinking. The 10 year is showing the results of QE tightening and Trumps willingness to curb the debt problem. What Trump is doing is healthy, this market needs it. To the moon does not last forever. It is looking like a twist coming in the MACD but looking previously it would have been considered a fake out. Unless Trump comes in and saves this market tomorrow could be a bloodbath. This scenario is o
US 10Y Yields - Perfect Discount Delivery!Let’s take a deep dive into Yields and have a look at how price delivered throughout last week.
The week prior, I posted that we will be seeing discount prices; 4.468% equilibrium draw in the near future and we absolutely smashed that price region.
Short
US 10Y TREASURY: higher on inflation expectationsThe major data release during the previous week was the US jobs report. The on-farm payrolls were lower from market expectations, at the level of 143K, however, this was not a concern of the market. The major indicator which moved the US Treasury yields to the higher grounds was a drop in unemployment combined with an increase in hourly earnings of 0,5% and higher from markets initial estimate. The increase in wages implies higher consumption and in the last instance, higher inflation. In additi
CPI week for US 10-year yieldsSince my last idea on US10-year yields the Fed opted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.50% and the latest NFP print came in at a lackluster 143 thousand in January, down from 307 thousand in December. These two events provide a contradicting impact for US longer term yields as the weaker labour market results is indicative that the Fed may have to continue cutting rates to stimulate the economy, which is positive for bonds, while the Feds decision to pause rates plays the ball into
Long
YS10Y 4H10-Year Treasury Bond Analysis
The analysis is progressing very accurately and in line with the previous forecast, and we are following it with confidence.
High precision analysis, amazing results!
Long
Head & Shoulder 10 Year Bond - Possible Bond Yield ReversalIn this chart I noticed the 10 Year Bond is forming a Head & Shoulders Pattern. If this plays out it would be Bullish !!! Typically when the 10-Year Bond retraces asset prices go up. Aka Prices increase to the upside !!
The RSI is also bouncing from lows nearly reaching the oversold level but not quite. It's possible that there is more downside left on the RSI and that levels continue to go down. I will be watching the RSI closely to see how it changes over the following days and weeks.
This
WHAT'S FLOWING: EURAUD | CADCHF | GBPAUD | BRENT | COPPER + MORETop Row Charts:
EUR/AUD (Top Left): Market is trending upwards, labeled as "LONG", possibly indicating a buy signal based on the trend or setup shown.
CAD/CHF (Top Middle): Seems to be range-bound with no distinct trend breakout, potentially in consolidation.
GBP/AUD (Top Right): Marked as "LONG", showing a bullish trend continuation.
Bottom Row Charts:
Brent Crude Oil (Bottom Left): Labeled as "SHORT", indicating potential bearish momentum or correction.
Copper (Bottom Middle): Another ch
THE MACRO: GOLD / $ / COMMODITIES / ASIA EMWelcome to THE MACRO, where we take a big-picture view of the financial markets, analyzing long-term investment trends, macroeconomic shifts, and strategic positioning for major plays. In today’s episode, we’re diving into gold, bonds, the U.S. dollar, commodities, and global indices to understand where the smart money is flowing for 2025 and beyond.
Key Macro Themes in Focus
1. Gold & Gold Miners – Inflation Hedge & Safe Haven?
• Gold futures continue their long-term uptrend, holding strong
Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature
- Double Formation
* 1st Trendline | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1
* 2nd Trendline | Uptrend Bias & Entry
- Triple Formation
* 012345 Wave Count & Long Set Up Feature | Subdivision 2
* ABC Flat | Sideways Mark Up | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
Europea
LONG 10YR Note FuturesThis could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market which means its time to pull the trigger. Play a stop on a break a little bit below the trend line to your own risk tolerance but give i
Long
Is the US 10Y yield dropping below 4%?My short-term profit-generating system is giving a strong signal that the US 10Y yield is about to drop below the 4% level.
The US Treasury market is regaining its safe haven status.
Short