How we financing this¿Yields have been going down for 40 years while debt/gdp growing, how are we financing this hiking rates?
ShortGovernment bonds
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US 10YR Treaury Yield Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysys 030825Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 4.2/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback poi
Watch credit spread increase drive toward correction territoryThe Nasdaq is already flirting with correction territory, and other major market indices may follow as the credit spread increases. As the market indicates its perceived increased risk in corporate default, this spread (high-yield bond yield minus 10y bond yield) increases independent of what the Fed does.
If the recent mini-spike up to ~7.5% heads north of 10% in short order--6 to 9 weeks perhaps, I'll become proportionally bearish.
The calculation: Subtract the US10Y (left/middle blue line)
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Rate Cuts Are NOT BullishRate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs.
Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away
CNBCAnyone remember 2 years ago when yield curve inversions were happening and they moved the goal post for recession? Naw, nothing to see here! Jim Cramer just like 6 months ago said that anyone that uses the yield curve as a tool is spreading FOMO and FUD, blah, blah, blah. I still cannot believe after the Wells Fargo garbage anyone would ever listen to Cramer but they still do. It just shows who in the market is delusional. Just focus on earnings he said. Now that Trump is in office the main stre
US10Y - End of February Analysis- February bearish monthly bias has been achieved this month!
- Sellside liquidity rests below 4.126%
- The possibility still exists for a short-term bullish retracement filling part of the imbalance this months candle created.
- Looking out for a retracement then capitulation through Sellside liquidity @ 4.126%
- Fair value gap lays close @ 3.932% – 4.170% so I will be paying close attention to it.
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USD10Y Vs US02Y Bond LongUSD10Y Vs US02Y is now net long on the regression break.
I am not taking this trade, as it just of interest in market sentiment
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US 10-Year Yield and USDJPY CorrelationThe correlation between the US 10-Year Yield curve and USDJPY has been especially strong over the past 3 years. If the Yen carry trade unwinds, we could potentially see the 10-year hitting 3% this year.
US 10-year yields eyeing move towards 4.00%Previous string of ideas has been invalidated following last week's price action.
The US 10-year yield completely crashed through the support at 4.40% last week following a host of strong data prints from the US coupled with a wave of risk-off investor sentiment stoked by Trump’s tariff fears which had investors rushing to the safety of US treasuries. Could Trump’s hardline tariff stance perhaps be a way to create demand for US debt?
Technically the yields have now dropped into oversold terr
US 10Y TREASURY: uncertainty demands T-bonds Geopolitics were once again in the spotlight of market sentiment during the previous week. The uncertainty over the potential future increased tensions within the geopolitical sphere, pushed the US Treasury yields further to the lower grounds. Increased demand started with uncertainty over trade tariffs and currently is affected by politics. The funds from US equity markets fled toward the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US benchmark yields started the week around 4,45% and ended it at 4,20%.
Looki
US 2 Year Yields Falling Back Below Key Pivot!US 2 Year Yields Falling Back Below Key Pivot!
Is the next leg down signaling a major market correction?
Expect the Fed Fund Rates to be cut sooner rather than later.
However, no need to front run this possibility, simply observe the charts. Stay safe.
As GDP Falls Off a Cliff, so Will Interest RatesIt is not different this time. This is how the cycles work. Bond rally of the ages dead ahead
US10Y - Fed’s Dovish Whispers Crush YieldsAn absolute peach of a delivery this week with the yields dropping into a discounted price region of the market; 4.468% as expected.
What can we look forward to next week?
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US01Y Bond LongUS02Y Bond is now net-short with the 05Y and 10Y bond.
Is this a sign of things to come in the market?
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US10Y - US03M zoomed inSame story as last time, just a view of what I think will happen now
Not financial advice
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10YBonds: Yielding?Any close below 4.24 may act like a cool breeze for EMs, a less than 4 is required for nifty to start performing back. The channel looks like already broken on the downside and RSI is already have broken all supports, Lets see how it plays, expecting it reach below 4.
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10 Year YieldRates are going lower. Bullish signal for lower rates as shown by MACD and RSI.
For informational purposes only. Not a recommendation.
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US05Y Bond LongUS05Y Bond is now Net-Long on the Regression Break.
I am considering a Bond Trade with the markets under pressure.
Long
US10Y Bond Long US10Y bond is now net-Long on the Regression Break.
Pressure is building in the USA Indexs and pushing arcoss to the bond markets.
I am considering this trade.
Long
USD outlook: The DJT wrecking ball+1 is gaining momentumHello traders
First of all, best of luck for yet another challenging week ahead.
I usually keep my charts simple in appearance but in this case I toyed around with the canvas to illustrate the direction of these three USD instruments. It also gave me the opportunity to simmer down before I start writing my next Idea on EUR/USD.
The charts tell the story. The FOMC's 50 bps rate cut on September 18th 2024 caused considerable consternation in the markets. It was a turning point for all three USD
US 10Y TREASURY: safe-haven for uncertain growthThe US 10Y Treasury yield fell sharply during the previous week, in line with a drop on US equity markets. At the same time, the price of gold headed toward a new all time highest level, marking its sixth consecutive gaining week. Uncertainty is a word which has dominated financial markets since the establishment of the new US Administration. Spooky words like tariffs, inflation, and questionable economic growth are currently dominating investors' sentiment, in which sense, some further funds re
US05YThe US bonds are in a very strong sell , The've been a third bounces to the downside and also a break out trendline to the upside
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US10Y This bond is long term pushing to the down side , we hit a major level on the monthly so we patiently waiting for a change of direction on the lower time frame and also if they would be any decision making from the US government
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