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Government bonds

Will The FED cut rates? Maximum employment & stable prices were the choice of words from Jerome Powell last meeting addressing the economy. While the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in March 2025, the core PCE, which excludes food & energy, increased by 2.6%. Additionally the NY Fed's multivariate core trend suggests underlying inflation may be closer to 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The April jobs report showed stronger than expecte

by jflanagan229

10Y Bond Yield Long: Riding Wave 3 This is an update to my previous Elliott wave counts for 10Y yield. I believed we have completed a wave 2 and is now going into a wave 3. What this means is that if you are trading futures, it is the opposite: short futures (ZN1!).

Recession indicator #2 Just realized that measuring the spread between TVC:US02Y and FRED:FEDFUNDS gives you a pretty accurate heads up of looming recessions. We might be in one from a few months now.

US 10Y TREASURY: rollercoaster, again Market movements in a previous period are clearly showing how high uncertainty is currently among market participants. The US Treasuries for one more time took the downtrend during the previous week, clearly testing the 4,2% level with 10Y US benchmark, but Fridays better than expected jobs report, was a trigger for a move back toward the higher grounds. The lowest weekly level of 10Y yields was 4,13% on Thursday, however, the rest of the trading week the market was looking at the upside. The s

US10Y - April Review Whenever we are faced with a market that is consolidating, it's best to lower your leverage and aim for low hanging fruits. Gun to my head, I would like to see a bullish draw to 4.440% but after that price is met, anything goes!

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by ClosingTicks

10Y Note Auction & Why Markets did %10 Movement with Last Data?Hello Traders tomorrow we have 10-Year Note Auction data and I wanted to prepare a nice little information for you about this topic because the data released last month showed an immediate 10% increase and from what I saw, many people had no idea what was happening. 📌 What is the 10-Year Note Auction? The U.S. government regularly issues 10-year Treasury notes to finance its budget. The auction result reflects investor demand and long-term interest rate expectations. The yield (interest rate

US10Y A bond is essentially a loan made by an investor to a borrower, which can be a government or a corporation. It is a fixed-income financial instrument where the borrower agrees to pay back the principal amount (face value) on a specified maturity date and usually makes periodic interest payments called coupons to the bondholder. What Is a Government Bond? A government bond is a type of bond issued by a national government to raise funds. When you buy a government bond, you are lending money to th

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$US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low.TVC:US10Y is going through a volatile period. After ‘Liberation Day’ the standard deviation if the movements in the TVC:US10Y has gone up significantly affecting the Equity and Bond indexes. This has been volatility story for the last 1-2 months. Now we are touching the midpoint of the downward sloping parallel channel which lies at 4.1 %. On the medium term the downward sloping channel indicates we can touch the Midpoint of 4.0 %. The downward spiral in the rates will continue for the fore

by RabishankarBiswal

Macro Bullish Rates?An over simplification? I hope so. The narrative fits too close for me. Needless to say, it's worth keeping an eye on. If we manage to keep interest rates low for a while but inflation creeps in again (not due to high demand but because of monetary inflation) I can see the debt spiral scenario playing out in full force. This is a chilling thought, not something my generation has been exposed to and I believe it could have a very different impact to the population than the previous cycle. The

10 Yr Bond Yield breaks downtrend & then falls back into it!10 Yr Bond yields seem to have topped after that massive 1 week run. That was an impressive run! TVC:TNX Even though the downtrend was broken, the 10Yr Yield put in a LOWER high. We can also see that the recent uptrend was violated, back in a down trend. Short term interest rates look worse!

by ROW_Partners

US10Y - Higher Probability Times Are to Come Soon!Throughout this month, its been nothing but indecision in the markets and it does not look like anything will change anytime soon! With the reciprocal tariffs running rampant throughout the economy, investors and traders cannot make up their mind whether they want to be a buyer or seller. Best thing to do is sit on your hands and be patient as market conditions like this have the power of ripping your face off!

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by ClosingTicks

Stock markets STILL not out of the woods.Stock markets STILL not out of the woods. The setup is there for an EPIC fail. But WHEN?

US 10Y TREASURY: NFP and jobs data ahead There has been another pullback in the 10Y US Treasury yields during the previous week. It comes as a result of investors' anticipation that the trade war between the US and China might soon be finalized. However, this sentiment is again based on mixed signals coming from the US Administration during the previous week. What will be the final result, no one actually knows, not even the US Administration, as per some analysts. The US President is still putting pressures on Fed Chair Powell to lowe

Rates - Trend to Continue Up While rates soften after a recent surge, the 10 month moving average will likely continue to rise over time. Paring back on rate sensitive stocks seems like a good idea going forward.

Interest Rates don't seem to want to slow down We believed that interest rates were going higher in Early April/Late March. The Bullish Engulfing formation was a sign that higher interest rates were coming TVC:TNX The 10 Yr Yield Downtrend was broken, it retraced some, we posted that it was likely consolidating, & seems to want to go a little higher. Central Banks worldwide are lowering rates while the US is raising them. --- Please see our profile for more info... We do post a lot.

by ROW_Partners

US 10Y TREASURY: just a short correction Tariffs continue to be the major market concern, considering its potential impact on inflation, and at the last distance - the decision of the Fed to cut interest rates during the course of this year. The US Administration continues to urge the Fed to cut interest rates, noting that this is the right moment for such a move, while Fed Chair Powell refuses to comment. However, during the previous week, Powell publicly noted that the US economy might be hurt with tariffs in terms of higher inflatio

2-Year US Treasury Yield: The Market's Immediate Sentiment Gauge The 2-year Yield currently trades at 3.805%, unfolding within a well-defined three-year falling wedge pattern. This formation follows an extraordinary surge from 0.105% in January 2021 to 5.283% in October 2023—reflecting rapid Fed rate hikes and inflation expectations. The 4.00% level, which aligns with the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, has been tested multiple times, indicating it as the immediate battlefield for bulls and bears. Warning Signs: If yields fail to stay above 4.00%, a decline towa

10-Year Treasury Yield: Final Move Before Collapse? The 10-year US Treasury Yield, once the benchmark of global confidence, is now exhibiting signs of a macro top. Since its 2020 low of 0.333%, it surged to 5.00% in October 2023, marking the end of the 40-year bond bull market. It now trades around 4.20%—a key Fibonacci confluence zone and the March 2025 breakout retest area. A breakdown below 3.95%–3.82% could trigger a cascade to: 3.30% 3.16% 2.85% and 2.63% This would imply disinflation, economic contraction, or systemic bond market stress. T

US10Y - 90 Day Halt On Tariffs Rattles The Market!Extreme levels of volatility has ensued after the news was released that tariffs will be held for 90 days. When will we see the return of the norm?

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by ClosingTicks

GRE30 You can buy after the price touches the 96.23 area, as it is a very suitable area for buying with a very simple stop loss and a distant target.

US02Y The differential between the US02Y (2-year U.S. Treasury yield) and EUR02Y (2-year Eurozone government bond yield) significantly influences the trade directional bias for the USD and EUR this month. Here's how: Impact of Yield Differential on Currency Trade Interest Rate Differentials: A widening yield spread between US02Y and EUR02Y, where U.S. yields rise more than Eurozone yields, typically supports the U.S. dollar (USD) against the euro (EUR). This is because higher yields in the U.S. attrac

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EUR02Y The EUR 2-year yield (EUR 2Y) influences the euro currency strength primarily through its role as a short-term interest rate indicator reflecting market expectations of monetary policy and economic conditions in the Eurozone. How EUR 2Y Yield Affects Euro Strength Interest Rate Expectations and Carry Trade: The 2-year yield is sensitive to expectations about ECB policy moves, such as rate hikes or cuts. Rising EUR 2Y yields typically signal expectations of tighter ECB policy or stronger economic

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US02Y As of April 2025, China holds approximately $759 billion to $761 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, making it the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt after Japan. This is a significant reduction from its peak holdings of $1.316 trillion in November 2013. Potential Effects if China Sells Its U.S. Treasury Holdings If China decides to sell off its U.S. Treasury holdings, the potential effects could be substantial: Spike in U.S. Interest Rates: A mass sell-off would flood the market with U

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US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be – recession Market uncertainty continues to be supported with tariffs-narrative induced by US Administration and other world governments. The tariffs-war intensified between the US and China, bringing them to the level of absurdity. The fear of stagflation is for one more time active on financial markets. The 10Y Treasury yields ended one more week at higher grounds. They started the week around 3,87% and ended it at 4,49%. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, at the level of 4,58%. As analysts i