Page 8 | Ideas and Forecasts on Bonds — TradingView

Government bonds

UK Long Gilt (UK10YBGBP) – Potential Long Setup After months of sustained downside pressure, UK Long Gilts are beginning to show signs of stabilisation around a key support zone. Price has repeatedly reacted to the 84.75–86.00 area, suggesting that sellers may be losing momentum after the sharp decline seen earlier this year. My focus is on a long position from the current range, using the descending trendline as a trigger level. A successful break and hold above this area could open the door for a move back toward the previous structure hig

Why I'm Watching the US 10-Year Yield So Closely Right Now Back in January and February, I described the US 10-year Treasury yield as being in a constructive—but admittedly rather boring—sideways pattern. While price action lacked excitement, the technical structure suggested that pressure was quietly building beneath the surface. Today, that upside pressure is becoming much more apparent. Although yields remain within the broader range, buyers continue to emerge on pullbacks, and the focus is now firmly on this year's high at 4.69%. A sustained brea

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Fed will likely increase Target Interest Rates by 25 bps The basic explanation for this chart: the blue line is the upper limit and the green line is the lower limit. Every time people say Fed is increasing or decreasing interest rates, what is actually means is the target rates (upper limit and lower limit). The current limit is 3.5% to 3.75%. If rate moves outside of these limits sustainably, Fed will move the target interest rates so that the rate will be within these limits. Why? Because if they don't, then they will need to actively intervene in

10Y Weekly Mega Symmetrical Triangle Pt2 I prefer charts, they can’t lie. Unless of course they start fudging data, but that is another topic for another day, maybe… Here’s a breakdown of the macro thesis outside of technical jargon. Like Nacho Libre would say, “the nitty gritty”, where the logic holds firm, where the trade offs lie, and the counter forces at play. Supply/Demand Imbalance in Treasuries Issuance Problem U.S. Treasury continues to issue MASSIVE volumes of debt to fund federal deficits. When foreign central banks and

by ROW_Partners

10Y Weekly Mega Symmetrical Triangle Pt1 Macro Compression: The 10 year yield is nearing the apex of a massive multi year symmetrical triangle/pennant pattern. Yields are reaching a major inflection point: Both 10Y and 2Y rates are testing multi month, multi year, structural resistance levels simultaneously. A clean breakout here would tighten financial conditions rapidly across risk assets. 10 Year Yield: Pure Structural Strength The 10 Year’s RSI, moving average alignment, and momentum oscillators are all expanding in sync across

by ROW_Partners

Canadian 10Y Yield Signals More Downside The Canadian Government 10-Year Bond Yield is struggling to extend its recent recovery. Softer rate expectations and improving demand for bonds could keep yields under pressure. The bearish outlook remains valid while price stays below key resistance, with further downside in focus.

by asgharphulpoto

US10Y BLUEPRINT MAPPING -- BEST RESULTS IN 30 + YEARS I put a little to much effort into this! this chart will still be inplay in 50 years

by blackwhite121

US 10Y Treasury Yield Faces Bearish Pressure The US 10-Year Treasury yield is showing signs of weakening as expectations around future monetary policy and easing inflation pressures continue to shape market sentiment. If sellers remain in control, yields could extend lower in the coming sessions. A sustained move to the downside would reinforce the sell-side outlook while markets continue to monitor upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve commentary.

by asgharphulpoto

US 10Y TREASURY: Gains on safety demands U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined toward the end of the week as investors balanced encouraging domestic economic data against renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The highest weekly yields at 4,63% were reached at the start of the week, while the close is at 4,54%. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation figures reinforced expectations that underlying price pressures continue to moderate, while weaker producer prices added to the view that inflation is gradually easing. Despite esca

30Y Yields Are a Headwind 30Y yields vs S&P (overlay) The simple version is yields up, stocks down. Higher long rates tighten conditions and compete with risk assets. That works until it doesn't. Regime matters more than the textbook line. On this chart, yields have been grinding higher off the ~4.55% lows, tagged 5% more than once, and are sitting above that line now around 5.13%. Equities still ran hard over the same window, from the ~6,400 area in April toward ~7,570+. So for a stretch, yields and stocks moved up to

by GatorResearch

CPI panel of metals, silver, gold, copper, real yields, and dxy.This is an 8 chart panel for reviewing metals, dxy and bond yields which is particularily useful for CPI reporting.

by mariefutures

the 5% treasury yield problem 5% Changes The Cost Of Money For years, one of the biggest forces supporting financial markets was cheap money. Low interest rates reduced borrowing costs, supported asset valuations, and allowed governments, companies, and households to finance themselves at historically favorable levels. That environment has changed. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield moving back above 5% brings a simple but important question back into focus: A 5% yield does not automatically signal a crisis. The impo

by currencynerd

10Y Yield: Breaking Out of the Range? The 10-year Treasury yield is pushing higher again, currently trading near 4.62% and testing the descending trendline that's capped every major rally since the 2023 high of 5.02%. Yields are rising as Fed rate-hike expectations grow, with Treasury markets bracing for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut testimony before Congress and June's CPI and PPI data — both landing this week. The yield is holding firmly above its long-term ascending trendline (support since the 2023 lows), and a clean break abo

by Givtrade_Group

Are you enjoying your high mortgage rate?Are you enjoying your high mortgage rate? Don't worry, they could be going up much higher!

Markets Stay Sideways As Rising Treasury Yields, FOMC Minutes, a After a strong recovery over recent weeks, markets are taking a breather today as investors digest a combination of geopolitical developments, rising Treasury yields, and the upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The first catalyst today comes from the Middle East. The U.S. military confirmed another round of strikes against Iran following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed tensions have pushed crude oil prices higher, bringing energy markets back into focus and rai

10Y Update: Daily Channel Breakout Threatens Pennant Resistance Revisiting the 10-Year U.S. Government Bond Yield ( TVC:TNX ) via a dual time frame view. The Macro Frame (Left): Yields are pushing right back up against the upper resistance line of the multi year symmetrical pennant/bull pennant. Crucially, the key Exponential Moving Averages held the recent pullbacks, while weekly RSI remains firmly above 50. The Tactical Frame (Right): Instead of continuing down toward the bottom of the macro wedge, the daily action broke out to the upside from its descen

by ROW_Partners

All Eyes 2 Year Yield For Correction Crash Or New Highs 2 year 10 year looks at all areas of our living cars loan mortgages credit card etc. The higher the 2 year goes that means higher rates for Tech to borrow remember tech borrowed money. It need to get back 3.50. The higher it goes tech will drop all eyes on 2 year. Daily says wants drop needs break like on the left. Lots lots support 4.10 25 day and 3.98 50 day ma and we are above all. Trend is up.

US 2-Year Yield: How to Read Fibonacci Extension After Reversal Market: TVC:US02Y US Government 2-Year Yield Main lesson: Fibonacci extension is a projection tool, not a prediction tool. Let’s dive into a chart that’s quietly telling a powerful story. The US 2-year yield is giving us a textbook example of how traders can use the Fibonacci extension tool after a clean A-B-C structure forms. But this isn’t just about drawing lines and hoping for the best - it’s about understanding how trends evolve and where momentum might take us next. Before we get

Gold can move UP with increasing or decreasing yields.Gold can move UP with increasing or decreasing yields. So what are you worried about exactly?

US 10Y TREASURY: Potential for extended declines The yield on the U.S. 10Y Treasury bonds moved lower during the week as investors digested the latest inflation data and continued to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Although yields started the week around 4,5% level, the strong move toward the downside, brought them down to 4,37% where they are closing the week. Softer Treasury yields reflected growing expectations that while inflation remains above the Fed's target, policymakers may be approaching the end of their ti

US10Y - Technicals Over Sentiment, Bearish Leg Starting?US10Y respected the technical structure despite the recent hawkish sentiment. Price rejected the resistance area and the upper boundary of the weekly symmetrical red triangle, then broke below both the EMA50 and the green trigger area, which provided an early indication that a bearish leg may have started. This move increases the probability that the recent reaction was driven more by technical factors than by the hawkish tone. Price is now testing the EMA100, where a short-term reaction may

Yield Pt 2: 2Yr Structural Bull Flag Rejection at Key Resistance While the 10Y is compressing into a pennant, the 2 Year Yield presents a distinctly different macro structure on the weekly frame: a clean, parallel Bull Flag. A critical level to watch is the ORANGE horizontal line. Ever since yields broke below this threshold, sustaining a trade above it has proven incredibly difficult. We are currently witnessing the 4th major rejection/exhaustion point around this zone after a brief poke higher. Turning to the daily chart, momentum is visibly draining. The

by ROW_Partners

Yield Pt1: 10Yr Shows Massive Symmetrical Pennant Looking at the macro picture on the weekly frame, the 10 Year U.S. Government Bond Yield is carving out a massive, multi year Symmetrical Pennant, Bull Pennant. Given the wide apex of this structure, a definitive macro breakout likely won't trigger until late this year or heading into next year. However, the tactical view on the daily chart suggests short term weakness is taking over. Price has broken below the short term EMAs, the RSI has rolled over to 50, and the TTM Squeeze indicator has f

by ROW_Partners

The GDP Illusion: 3 Accounting Adjustments Distorting Macro Data When evaluating macroeconomic health or trading equity proxies, headline numbers like the Q1 2026 Real GDP print of 1.6% can be deeply misleading. GDP is a measure of pure transaction volume, heavily altered by specific statistical choices: •Imputed Rent (8% of GDP): A massive portion of growth is based on a "phantom" estimate of what homeowners would pay themselves in rent. Rising housing costs inflate GDP without adding a single dollar of actual consumer liquidity. •Hedonic Quality Adjustmen

by ROW_Partners