US10Y - US03MY zoomed inBear Flag playing out. Zoomed in for easier viewing compared to old post.
Not financial advice.
Government bonds
US2Y - BUY (SELL BOND) strategy 3 hourly chart - regression The 2Y US yield has move lower and broken important yield level of 3.9650 area. The GAP lower 3.8500 currently, is providing an extremely oversold reading and other time frames are oversold as well but not as severe.
Strategy SELL BONDS @ 3.78-3.8350 yield and take profit with a 15 basis points toughly benefit. It does also support some US$ strength in coming sessions, is my personal view.
Long
US 10Y TREASURY: emerging inflation? Another end of the week brought not so positive news to the markets, so some higher volatility was evident. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment came as a surprise, with increased inflation expectations from US consumers. Data showed that the sentiment for this year inflation has increased to 5,0%, while a five year sentiment is at the level of 4,1%. These figures strongly impacted US equity markets, the price of gold while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields dropped to the level of 4,25%, from 4,4
10-Year Treasury Yield Potential Short OpportunitiesThe 10-year Treasury yield recently failed at the critical resistance level of 4.38%, previously highlighted as a significant pivot. On the daily chart, the yield formation now resembles a potential head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, which would have profound implications if completed.
Immediate Supports: Crucial Support lies at 4.30, followed closely by 4.22 and 4.16. A breakdown through these levels would solidify a bearish reversal, targeting declines to the psychological levels at 4.00% an
Short
US 10-Year Yield: Recovery Under ThreatThe US 10-Year Treasury Yield, which dropped as low as 4.16% in February, has staged a modest recovery after finding technical support at that level—a move highlighted in our March 3 analysis.
However, yields now face a significant hurdle: a 5-month major resistance zone, sitting just below 4.40%. This area has historically acted as a pivot for medium-term direction.
A successful breakout above this resistance could lead to a move toward 4.44%, 4.47%, and possibly 4.52%.
On the flip side, a fail
US10Y H&S Reversal?This might be hopium.
For selfish reasons I'd like to see this 10Y come back down to earth.
US10Y - Will Donald Trumps Lower Interest Rates Come True?President Donald Trump late Wednesday criticized the Federal Reserve, urging the central bank to reduce interest rates, hours after it chose to leave borrowing rates unchanged.
He quotes “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, adding “Do the right thing.”
On Thursday, we witnessed manipulation to the downside, indicating that in the short term we could be in for
Long
US 10yr Treasury Yields Press Against ResistanceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just beneath the 4.34% resistance level, with price forming a tight ascending triangle just under this key level. Today’s pullback to 4.31% (-0.74%) suggests hesitation from bulls as momentum indicators turn mixed.
🔹 MACD is flat, showing a lack of directional conviction.
🔹 RSI sits at 47.94, neutral and non-committal.
🔹 Price remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (4.43%) and the 200-day SMA (4.22%).
A confirmed breakout above 4.34% could open th
US10Y: 10-Year Treasury Yield – Safe Bet or Yield Trap?(1/9)
Good morning, everyone! ☀️ US10Y: 10-Year Treasury Yield – Safe Bet or Yield Trap?
With the 10-year yield at 4.358%, is it time to lock in safety or wait for better rates? Let’s break it down! 🔍
(2/9) – YIELD PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Yield: 4.358% as of Mar 25, 2025 💰
• Historical Context: Above pandemic lows (~1-2%), below early 2000s (5-6%), per data 📏
• Sector Trend: Inverted yield curve signals caution, per economic reports 🌟
It’s a mixed bag—let’s see what’s cooking! ⚙️
(3/9) –
US 10Y TREASURY: two rate cuts?The Fed held interest rates unchanged at their FOMC meeting during the previous week. On a positive side is that they still perceive two rate cuts during the course of this year, which would account for 0.5 percentage points further drop in US reference rates. Fed officials noted that there are arousing uncertainties related to moves from the US Administration which could impact the US economy to some extent. For the moment the forecast for the economic growth for this year was decreased by 0,4
The FED will cut rates.The FED will cut rates.
Then cut again.
Then cut some more.
Until there is nothing else left to cut.
Rate Announcement Will Cause EXTREME Levels Of Volatility!With a tremendous amount of high impact news being released next week, you can expect very high levels of volatility especially coming up towards the first rate announcement.
Last weeks price action delivered to the upside as expected but I do still believe there is unfinished business at the 4.343% - 4.404% weekly PD array.
I expect price to expand to the upside following the high impact news being released next week. This can lead to investors chasing higher yields in risk off conditions
Long
US10Y decision comingUS10Y decision coming very soon.
Possible M Breakdown with 5th wave down, or retrace for shoulder.
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC weekThe US February inflation data were posted during the previous week, and with 0,2% for the month, was in line with market expectations. However, the negative effects of the US Administration related to tariffs were reflected in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped in March below market estimate. What is concerning is that consumers are now expecting the inflation of 4,9% for the year, which is much higher from previous posts. It is obvious that the tariffs-on, tariffs-off game is
Clear Head&Shoulders TOP on the UST 10yYld Operating framework: How the mkt WENT IN (1st H&SBtm w/ measuring Obj VerticleUP) is how the mkt is going OUT (2nd H&STop with measuring Obj VerticleDN).
Not the Multi-pivot horizonal line acting a pivot/attractor confluence to the setp.
h/t Dan The MAN...
Short
US02Y hidden bearish divergence and RSI rejection from level 40
US02Y could be repeating a pattern from August 2024. Hidden bearish divergence (continuation of lower highs) and rejection of RSI from level 40. Following the rejection, the yields went lower.
US02Y going lower is bullish for risk assets.
In addition, US02Y could be on the verge of a fifth Elliott wave to the downside. The second wave overshot a little the textbook 0.618 fib level. The fourth wave retraced a little less than the textbook 0.386 fib level. Given the RSI analysis above, the f
Short
WE ARE COMING OUT OF A RECESSION. NOT GOING INTO ONE.This chart shows 10-year yield, which is closely tied to mortgage rates, minus the Federal funds rate.
When this figure is negative, it typically indicates that we are experiencing a recession or economic downturn.
Conversely, a positive number usually aligns with economic growth, often referred to as the good times.
While it's up to you to determine the reasons behind a official recession not being declared during the Biden administration, the undeniable data reflects a prolonged period o
Long
US10Y Strong sell signal below the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 23 2023 High. In the past 2 months it has been on a downtrend, which is the technical Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The 1D MACD is on its 2nd Bullish Cross on a decline, very similar with the previous Bearish Leg of the Channel Down. We are again on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and as long as any rebound gets rejected below or on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term bearish pattern remains int
Short
Bullish Bond BonanzaThis chart is simply ultra bullish.
This idea attempts to highlight a bullish pattern, within an ultra bullish pattern.
The first pattern is an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which has formed over 16 years!
In Oct 23, US30Y breached the 16 year Year High and since then we have created a double bottom (the second pattern) on the 3M chart at near equal lows around 3.9%
US30Y looks like it wants to break out very soon.
The red areas highlights the 3months selling Fair Value Gaps, however
Long
relief pumpSeems like election bull was already priced in, new money got washed.
Bonds are making a comeback, cash is a position.
Expecting more downturn after a relief pump, coinciding with yields retracement.
Yields trending with equity price are usually signs of either economical expansion or economical fears, such as slowdown or recession, during up and downs. The markets just jumped from one narrative to the other:
expansion(trump gets in office) ---> slowdown(tariffs imposed)
I think the expan
Long
US10Y - You Can Make Money And Be WrongLast weeks bias was bearish and although we have closed out bullish this week, the bearish PD array @ 4.126% - 4.104% which I was expecting has materialised.
This goes to show that you don't have to predict the weekly close. It's the draw on liquidity that is important.
Long
US10 Treasury Yield Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 031025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 3.99%/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback
US10Y-JPY10YToday as of March, 10th 2025, we saw the spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year yields break below a key support level at 2.80%, now trading around 2.66%. Tonight’s Japan session will be crucial, as the Japanese 10-year yield has climbed to 1.56%, breaking key levels. If the US10Y/JGB10Y spread continues to contract, the yen will keep strengthening.
Short
US 10Y TREASURY: a roller coasterThe roller coaster continues to be in the heart of financial markets during the previous period. The uncertainty over the trade tariffs, mixed macro data, Fed President Powell`s notes, all contributed to the strong shift in prices of assets across financial markets during the last few weeks. Previous week the 10Y US benchmark started with a lowest level of 4,10% and then moved toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level was 4,33% reached on Thursday, while the le
